Adrian Beltre is the epitome of sustained production
2015 Season Recap
Adrian Beltre played 143 games in 2015 with 83 runs and 83 RBI but posted his lowest home run total (18) and his lowest batting average (.287) since his Seattle days. He still offered exemplary defense at third base but failed to produce the value that was expected from the 32nd player off the board.
What the stats don’t show is that he was playing for much of the season with a thumb injury. He has developed a habit of starting off slowly – .705 OPS (April 2013), .686 OPS (April 2014) and .604 OPS (April 2015) but heats up during the rest of the season. In fact, despite the obvious discomfort from the thumb injury, Adrian Beltre had a higher batting average, OPS and fWAR after the All-Star break than Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado or Manny Machado.
2016 Projections
2016 ECR™ Expert Consensus Ranking
2016 Season Outlook
The third base landscape has changed dramatically in one year. No third basemen were taken in the first round in 2015 but as many as four could be drafted in the first 12 picks this year. Adrian Beltre has inevitably slipped down and according to FantasyPros ECR™ and the early ADP results, he is currently the ninth third baseman off the board. It should not be overlooked that he has been the model of consistency.
During the last four years, he has a .505 SLG and .312 AVG in more than 2500 plate appearances. Only Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen can compete with that level of sustained production. It is difficult to know how much of his 2015 struggles were due to the injury and how much should be attributed to the inevitable decline for a player closer to 40-years-old than 30.
It is easy to point to the four years of declining OPS and conclude that it is the predictable result of more than 10,000+ plate appearances but it should be noted that he actually produced a better second half than he did in 2013 or 2014. The future Hall-of-Famer had off-season surgery to repair the torn ligament in his thumb and is confident of being fully ready for Spring Training.
Presumably, he will continue to bat cleanup behind Prince Fielder and should keep the Rangers’ slugger Joey Gallo in the minors all season. The usual ageism on draft day and the novelty factor attached to several of the other third basemen, means that Beltre could fall a round or two, further increasing his value.
Gavin Tramps is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Gavin, check out his archive or find him @_tramps.
