Can Brandon Belt deliver great value despite his concussion risk?
2015 Season Recap
Brandon Belt set career-highs in home runs (18) and RBI (68). He also scored 73 runs with nine stolen bases and a robust .280 batting average. He posted a 135 wRC+ (which ranked eighth among qualified first basemen) and .834 OPS (which was 10th).
Belt is disparagingly called Eric Hosmer-lite, yet both hit 18 home runs with the Giants’ first baseman posting a higher OPS and stealing more bases in 111 fewer plate appearances. He finished as the 67th hitter on the player rater, which from an ADP of 222, proved profitable for those who drafted him.
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2016 Season Outlook
Belt missed 25 games last year and 101 games the year before. Health has been a big problem for the 28-year-old but even if he played a full slate of games, it is unlikely that he would move much higher up the first base rankings. Belt’s floor is high, but barring the breakout season that has been anticipated for several years, his ceiling is not that exciting.
Expect a .280 batting average with 17-22 home runs, 75 runs, 70 RBI and about 10 stolen bases. He posted a 39.5% hard-hit ball rate in 2015, putting him in the top 10 (minimum 500 plate appearances). The only players with a higher hard-hit ball rate is an impressive list including Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Matt Kemp and David Ortiz.
The Giants’ lineup batting ahead of him boasts three of the top-40 on-base specialists in Denard Span, Buster Posey and Joe Panik, which should give plenty of RBI opportunities. Belt suffered a concussion at the end of last season, his third going back to his college days, and although he is cleared to resume usual offseason activities, there is always the risk the symptoms will linger. Monitor this situation during Spring Training – everyone has seen the impact that concussions have had on the careers of players like Justin Morneau.
In most leagues, Belt has the added value of dual outfield and first base eligibility. The current ADP has him being drafted 75 spots after Freddie Freeman and Hosmer, which gives the potential for him to be a value pick.
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Gavin Tramps is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Gavin, check out his archive or find him @_tramps.
