Zack Greinke had a historic 2015, but can be found in the late third round this season
So draft day is finally here, the day you’ve been waiting 11 months for and – you’re drafting twelfth. Don’t fear, though, as below you will find your guide to drafting from the bottom. So pull up a chair, your cheat sheet and an icy beverage. It’s time to mock!
For this draft we’ll be using our Draft Wizard with the following configuration: 12 teams, drafting 12th, Yahoo! Sports ADP and standard 5×5 scoring.
1.12 – Nolan Arenado (3B – COL)
Weirdly, Astros SS Carlos Correa was still available at this point. While the chances of Correa having a great year is likely, Arenado is a much safer pick here. With 42 HR and 130 RBI in 2015, it’s hard to justify anyone other than Arenado in this position, especially at a premium position.
2.01 – Carlos Correa (SS – HOU)
Okay, so I like Arenado more than Correa, but the next tier of batters will provide similar numbers to Correa without elite positioning. With 22 picks remaining after this pick, many owners will be tempted to draft an elite pitcher. This isn’t necessary. It is much easier to find value in pitching in later rounds, with most elite batters going off the boards almost immediately. Correa popped 22 HRs and drove in 68 runs in only 98 games in 2015, and did it without detriment to a fantasy team in other categories. He also adds solid stolen bases to the mix as well, with 14 last season.
Twenty-plus picks later, we’re faced with a conundrum: stack this team with hitters, or balance with some premium starting pitching. So, let’s compromise:
3.12 – Chris Davis (1B,3B,OF – BAL)
It was a bit shocking to see Davis fall to the end of the third, as he’s a guaranteed 40 HR masher who should put up plenty of RBI and a serviceable slash line. At this time the infield is absolutely stacked, and we need to address the starting pitching.
4.01 – Zack Greinke (SP – ARI)
David Price, Zack Greinke, Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber sit atop the starting pitching queue at this moment, and despite many pundits hating on Greinke in Arizona this season, I’m taking him. Finishing second in the NL Cy Young in 2015, Greinke accomplished it all by keeping the ball in the park, inducing ground balls and missing bats when needed. I’m avoiding Price this year as he’ll pitch in the AL East 75% of the time, and it’s easy to believe Greinke still has some elite years in his arm.
5.12 – Noah Syndergaard (SP – NYM)
Syndergaard showed enough flashes of pure dominance in 2015 to get the nod over Carlos Carrasco and Sonny Gray here. It’s easy to dream on Thor’s massive frame leaving 2016 with ~17 wins and 200 strikeouts through ~190 innings.
6.01 – Carlos Carrasco (SP – CLE)
The beauty of drafting 12th (yes, the beauty) is being able to add depth as the rounds roll over. What started as a team with an elite infield now has an elite pitching staff with three top-tier starters capable of 200 innings and 200 strikeouts a piece. While Gray offers a low-risk play here, the upside of Carrasco is as good as it gets in this game.
7.12 – Gregory Polanco (OF – PIT)
At this point the team is bereft of outfielders, and as I mentioned in the sixth round, it is easy to turn the twelve spot into depth quicky. Polanco was outranked by only one other OF at this point – the terrifying-to-draft, Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury’s legs just aren’t going to hold up over time, and his decline has been evident since 2012. Polanco provides a bit less in the power department, but has been consistently solid in his two big-league seasons, posting 52 RBI and 27 SB in 2015.
8.01 – Adam Eaton (OF – CWS)
Eaton broke out in 2015, popping 14 HR and stealing 18 bases. This pick in itself is a bit of a reach, but sometimes you have to protect your rosters by overdrafting. Outfield depth is waning quickly, and Eaton fits an immediate need for this team.
Rounds nine and ten allow a unique opportunity for this team. There’s still sufficient time to grab a very good No. 2 or 3 starting pitcher to be complemented immediately by another bat.
9.12 – Marcus Stroman (SP – TOR)
While Stroman may not fit the definition of an ace, the Blue Jays will need him to play the part in 2015. Luckily, as a fourth starter on your fantasy team, he won’t have to. His strikeout numbers are already declining, but his 64% ground ball rate and the Toronto offense behind him will lead to plenty of wins.
10.01 – Ben Zobrist (2B,SS,OF – CHC)
Zobrist is another reach here, but the team had one gaping hole left at second base, which is where Zobrist will be setting up shop for the Cubs in 2015. Zobrist’s positional eligibility is a rare enough asset in a fantasy baseball player to warrant an overdraft. He’ll also provide about 15 home runs, some RBIs, and one of the best OBPs on the team.
Draft Wizard: Mock in minutes vs. the most accurate experts 
Check back here soon for Part II – Rounds 12-21.
Roy Widrig is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Roy, check out his archive and follow him@rolewiii.
