Jen Ryan is betting on Peyton staging a second-half comeback Sunday
Watching the Super Bowl is so much fun but having a little bit of money at stake makes the game even more fun. There is a wealth of information analyzing the statistical odds and aspects of every prop bet you can imagine. There are bets as simple as the coin toss, as complex as selecting a team to win by a fixed amount of points, and as ridiculous as guessing the color of the Gatorade bath. The whole point of prop bets is the variety they provide. When the Super Bowl contenders were decided, Vegas opened up with Carolina -3.5. That line went as high as -7 and has now settled in at -5.5 according to the Vegas consensus. The translation here is that Carolina is heavily favored and much of the betting public will put their money on the Panthers.
I have a slightly different opinion regarding the Super Bowl because sometimes when everyone is zigging I just have to zag. I have worked all of my prop bets into the way I see this game unfolding and will be putting one hundred of my hard earned daily fantasy dollars on the bets you see below on 5dimes.eu.
I could see this game getting off to a really quick start. A solid kickoff return, big run, and long touchdown pass could go down in the first minute of the game. I am risking $5.00 to win $136.25 for this scenario to pan out. Taking it one step further, I believe Carolina will be the team that strikes first and fast. The Broncos defense will sell out to stop Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, Greg Olsen, and Ted Ginn, Jr in the red zone. I have $20.00 that will turn to $440.00 if the Denver defense overcommits to Carolina’s studs and leave Devin Funchess open to score the first touchdown of the game. Just in case my hunch is right, I am also throwing $10.00 on the other Panther tight end Ed Dickson as another sneaky option to score. That would net a cool $400.00.
Carolina is going to get off to a hot start. By the time we prepare for our halftime naps during the “show,” Carolina will be in the lead. However, the half will be all Carolina wins as I see the Denver Broncos taking home the Lombardi trophy. I will win another $87.50 on a $10.00 bet that says Carolina wins the half, but Denver wins the final. Cam Newton is not going to make it easy on Denver and will finish the game with over 400 combined rushing and passing yards which will put another $100.00 in my purse off of a $10.00 risk. This is going to be a nail-biter that comes down to the wire.
The largest bet I placed cost me $40.00 on the hunch of this being a close game, winning me $214.80 when Denver wins by 1-4 points. The Broncos will have redeemed themselves from that awful excuse for a performance they rolled out in 2013.
It only makes sense that Peyton Manning will be named the Super Bowl MVP. He may not necessarily earn it, but if the Broncos win I have $5.00 that says Manning wins it. That will hit for just $17.50 because even the sportsbook know a championship will translate to an MVP win for Manning. The future Hall of Famer will finally be able to retire on his terms as a champion, Demaryius Thomas’ mother will have the joy of her life seeing her son win a ring, and DeMarcus Ware will return to the Dallas Cowboys in 2016 and bring his sorely missed pass rush back home with him.
The idea that my Super Bowl premonition will come to fruition is absurd but it is fun and throwing a few dollars on prop bets will make the absurdity more enjoyable. You will, or already have, read many articles about prop bets that involve all sorts of statistics, probability, and any other analytical process you can think of. I am taking a different approach in going with my intuition, or dream scenario if you will, and making the game more exciting for myself. If it turns out that I am an unheard of prop bet savant I will finish Super Bowl Sunday as a winner to the tune of $1,386.05. It is more realistic that I will get lucky on one prop bet and if the luck falls in Funchess’ hands on the first touchdown that $440.00 win will be worth it.
Good luck on your prop bets this weekend! Let me know what kind of action you will be getting yourself into.
Jen Ryan is a correspondent at FantasyPros, featured writer at Gridiron Experts and senior writer at Football Diehards. Click here for her archive and feel free to reach her and talk all things fantasy @FFdeJENerate.
