The Most Accurate Fantasy Baseball Projections

In case you missed it, we recently revealed which experts provided the most accurate fantasy baseball rankings in 2015. While rankings are incredibly important for fantasy research, they’re not the end-all, be-all for everyone. An equal companion to fantasy baseball success is a great source of projections. After all, projections offer the best way to get advice tailored to specific league formats.

With this in mind, we’re excited to unveil the results of our latest projections accuracy study. Before we dive into the results, here are a few notes about the analysis.

The projections of 15 sources were evaluated for our study. We used each source’s full season projections as of the first pitch on Opening Day (2015).
ZiPS projections were analyzed but we ultimately did not include them in the evaluation because they do not project Saves.
The methodology for the analysis is available here. In a nutshell, we evaluated every projection source at each 5×5 category to determine how close their projections were to the actual stats for 300 relevant players. The closer each projection was to the actual performance, the better the score earned.

So whose projections rated #1? Here are the accuracy results…

Baseball Projections Accuracy Standings

Rank	Source	Hitters	Pitchers
1	Sean Koerner (STATS)	2	1
2	RotoChamp	1	2
3	Razzball	4	3
4	Steamer (FanGraphs)	3	6
5	Inside Edge	6	7
6	numberFire	7	4
7	Clay Davenport	5	9
8	Rotoworld	8	5
9	ESPN	12	8
10	TG Fantasy Baseball	11	10
11	Grey Albright (Razzball)	10	14
12	CBS Sports	13	11
13	AccuScore	9	15
14	FanGraphs Fans*	14	12
15	RotoExperts	15	13

*Note: FanGraphs Fans projections are crowdsourced from FanGraphs’ readers.

Hitter Category Rankings

Rank	Source	Runs	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
1	RotoChamp	1	1	1	6	9
2	Sean Koerner (STATS)	5	2	2	4	3
3	Steamer (FanGraphs)	3	9	4	1	2
4	Razzball	2	11	3	3	1
5	Clay Davenport	6	5	6	2	5
6	Inside Edge	7	4	8	5	4
7	numberFire	8	3	4	8	7
8	Rotoworld	4	10	10	7	6
9	AccuScore	11	6	7	10	13
10	Grey Albright (Razzball)	9	8	11	9	12
11	TG Fantasy Baseball	10	7	13	12	11
12	ESPN	12	12	9	15	8
13	CBS Sports	14	15	14	11	10
14	FanGraphs Fans*	15	13	15	13	14
15	RotoExperts	13	14	12	14	15

Pitcher Category Rankings

Rank	Source	Wins	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1	Sean Koerner (STATS)	4	4	3	2	1
2	RotoChamp	6	3	1	5	7
3	Razzball	2	1	4	8	8
4	numberFire	7	7	6	1	5
5	Rotoworld	9	5	2	4	3
6	Steamer (FanGraphs)	3	2	6	7	12
7	Inside Edge	5	9	10	6	4
8	ESPN	8	8	13	3	2
9	Clay Davenport	1	6	9	12	10
10	TG Fantasy Baseball	11	11	5	13	9
11	CBS Sports	12	13	11	11	11
12	FanGraphs Fans*	12	14	12	10	13
13	RotoExperts	14	15	15	9	6
14	Grey Albright (Razzball)	10	12	8	14	14
15	AccuScore	15	10	14	15	15

% of Predictions Better Than the Average Projection

Source	Hitters	Pitchers	Total
Sean Koerner (STATS)	75%	72%	74%
Inside Edge	56%	70%	68%
Steamer (FanGraphs)	58%	68%	62%
Razzball	58%	67%	61%
numberFire	63%	57%	61%
RotoChamp	62%	55%	59%
Rotoworld	64%	58%	56%
Clay Davenport	53%	56%	54%
ESPN	44%	57%	49%
TG Fantasy Baseball	49%	38%	45%
FanGraphs Fans*	42%	44%	43%
Grey Albright (Razzball)	47%	37%	43%
RotoExperts	45%	38%	42%
CBS Sports	39%	46%	42%
AccuScore	47%	30%	40%

Notes

Congrats to Sean Koerner (STATS) for rating best in our analysis. If you think you’ve heard those words before, well, you have. Koerner also finished #1 in last year’s projections study. He was the top expert in our most recent football accuracy competition as well. In other words, he appears to know what he’s talking about when it comes to player predictions.

The last table above makes it fairly clear where Koerner found his success. He was adept at consistently delivering projections that were better than the average projection source. Specifically, 75% of the time he outpaced the average hitter projection and 72% of the time his pitcher predictions were above average. To put that in perspective, no other source was above 60% for both hitters and pitchers. A key takeaway here is that being “accurate” isn’t a matter of nailing all of your projections. That’s fundamentally unrealistic. What is realistic is hitting your share of predictions and avoiding the misses that are notably worse than what others are predicting. Those are the types of errors that can lead fantasy owners astray. So, as you’ll note in the tables below, Koerner didn’t always have the single best projection for last year’s best players. However, he was frequently more accurate than most of his peers with his projections. That lean of being high or low on a player is often what can push fantasy owners in a specific direction when making a decision on who to target.

When analyzing Koerner’s projections, there were a few players that jumped out as benefiting his rating. For Hitters, his projection for Mookie Betts (check out the next section) was notably better that the other sources. This was especially the case when it came to being more bullish on Betts’ Runs and RBI potential. Koerner also displayed a knack for under-projecting pitchers that ultimately disappointed fantasy owners. Players like Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Chris Tillman, and Rick Porcello (among others) all stood out on his hit list.

The player that contributed the highest individual score (more about scoring here) for a source was Sean Doolittle for Grey Albright (Razzball). Grey was the only prognosticator to give Doolittle a single digit save projection (8) and he also predicted an ERA (3.67) that was 1 full run worse than Doolittle’s average ERA projection. It was effectively a big “Do Not Draft or Pick This Guy Up” sign that everyone would have been wise to heed. Rotoworld also had a strong prediction that stood out for Yoenis Cespedes. They were the only site we monitored to predict that the Mets’ slugger would hit 30+ home runs and score 90+ runs. They also delivered his highest batting average projection (.278)

Top Player Projections

Listed below is a sample of 2015’s peak fantasy baseball performers. The best projection source (out of the 15 evaluated) for each player is displayed. We’ve also included the player’s actual stats and average projections as reference points. Note that our analysis was based on an evaluation of 300 players so this is not meant to represent the full extent of players evaluated.

Bryce Harper (OF, WAS)

Rank	Source	Runs	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
1.	RotoChamp Projections	85	27	84	10	.284
–	Average Projections	81	24	78	10	.279
–	Actual Stats	118	42	99	6	.330

Dee Gordon (2B, MIA)

Rank	Source	Runs	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
1.	CBS Sports Projections	86	2	30	57	.276
–	Average Projections	76	2	35	54	.266
–	Actual Stats	88	4	46	58	.333

Josh Donaldson (3B, TOR)

Rank	Source	Runs	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
1.	CBS Sports Projections	96	35	103	7	.272
–	Average Projections	86	27	92	6	.266
–	Actual Stats	122	41	123	6	.295

Mike Trout (OF, LAA)

Rank	Source	Runs	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
1.	Steamer (FanGraphs)	104	30	90	21	.297
–	Average Projections	111	32	100	22	.299
–	Actual Stats	104	41	90	11	.299

Nolan Arenado (3B, COL)

Rank	Source	Runs	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
1.	Grey Albright (Razzball)	84	27	98	10	.292
–	Average Projections	72	20	78	10	.287
–	Actual Stats	97	42	130	6	.287

Manny Machado (3B, BAL)

Rank	Source	Runs	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
1.	RotoExperts Projections	79	21	76	7	.281
–	Average Projections	72	17	64	5	.280
–	Actual Stats	102	35	86	20	.286

Kris Bryant (3B, CHC)

Rank	Source	Runs	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
1.	Clay Davenport Projections	73	28	94	10	.277
–	Average Projections	54	21	62	6	.260
–	Actual Stats	87	26	100	13	.274

Mookie Betts (OF, BOS)

Rank	Source	Runs	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
1.	Sean Koerner (STATS)	90	13	62	26	.289
–	Average Projections	82	12	54	24	.286
–	Actual Stats	92	18	77	21	.290

A.J. Pollock (OF, ARI)

Rank	Source	Runs	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
1.	Rotoworld Projections	80	13	58	21	.276
–	Average Projections	68	11	48	19	.275
–	Actual Stats	111	20	76	39	.315

Yoenis Cespedes (OF, NYM)

Rank	Source	Runs	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
1.	Rotoworld Projections	91	32	96	9	.278
–	Average Projections	80	24	88	8	.265
–	Actual Stats	101	35	105	7	.289

Jake Arrieta (SP, CHC)

Rank	Source	Wins	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1.	AccuScore Projections	16	205	0	2.98	1.07
–	Average Projections	12	179	0	3.30	1.17
–	Actual Stats	22	236	0	1.77	0.86

Max Scherzer (SP, WAS)

Rank	Source	Wins	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1.	Razzball Projections	15	240	0	2.95	1.07
–	Average Projections	16	247	0	2.90	1.10
–	Actual Stats	14	276	0	2.79	0.92

Clayton Kershaw (SP, LAD)

Rank	Source	Wins	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1.	AccuScore Projections	18	262	0	2.09	0.88
–	Average Projections	18	243	0	2.21	0.96
–	Actual Stats	16	301	0	2.13	0.88

Gerrit Cole (SP, PIT)

Rank	Source	Wins	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1.	CBS Sports Projections	14	202	0	3.23	1.14
–	Average Projections	13	168	0	3.33	1.20
–	Actual Stats	19	202	0	2.64	1.10

Sonny Gray (SP, OAK)

Rank	Source	Wins	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1.	TG Fantasy Baseball	13	169	0	2.99	1.17
–	Average Projections	13	177	0	3.32	1.23
–	Actual Stats	14	169	0	2.73	1.08

David Price (SP, BOS)

Rank	Source	Wins	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1.	RotoExperts Projections	18	235	0	2.92	1.08
–	Average Projections	16	217	0	3.17	1.10
–	Actual Stats	18	225	0	2.53	1.08

Chris Sale (SP, CWS)

Rank	Source	Wins	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1.	Steamer (FanGraphs)	14	243	0	3.03	1.07
–	Average Projections	13	220	0	2.76	1.04
–	Actual Stats	14	274	0	3.41	1.09

Mark Melancon (RP, PIT)

Rank	Source	Wins	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1.	numberFire Projections	3	64	35	2.20	0.94
–	Average Projections	4	67	37	2.35	1.00
–	Actual Stats	3	62	51	2.23	0.93

Andrew Miller (RP, NYY)

Rank	Source	Wins	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1.	Steamer (FanGraphs)	3	88	18	2.25	0.98
–	Average Projections	4	87	12	2.54	1.04
–	Actual Stats	3	100	36	1.90	0.86

Zach Britton (RP, BAL)

Rank	Source	Wins	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1.	CBS Sports Projections	3	61	43	3.03	1.01
–	Average Projections	3	58	36	2.76	1.20
–	Actual Stats	4	79	36	3.41	0.99

Trevor Rosenthal (RP, STL)

Rank	Source	Wins	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1.	TG Fantasy Baseball	2	83	41	2.95	1.27
–	Average Projections	4	84	37	2.83	1.18
–	Actual Stats	2	83	48	2.10	1.27

Aroldis Chapman (RP, NYY)

Rank	Source	Wins	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1.	Steamer (FanGraphs)	4	115	34	1.63	0.89
–	Average Projections	4	107	37	1.92	0.95
–	Actual Stats	4	116	36	1.63	1.15

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That wraps up our look at the top projection sources from 2015. Congrats again to Sean Koerner for taking home the crown as the highest rated prognosticator!

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