Will the Los Angeles Rams take Jared Goff with the first overall pick?
Vincent Frank gives insight into the first two rounds of his 2016 NFL Mock Draft.
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1. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff (QB – Cal)
If the Rams were to select Goff after moving up to the top pick, there’s absolutely no way the team could justify sitting him as a rookie. That’s only magnified by the bounty the team gave up to move up to the top pick.
By no way does this mean that Goff will be anywhere near a viable fantasy option in standard 12-team leagues. Even with rosters going two deep at quarterback, he wouldn’t be anything more than a bye-week or injury replacement.
The issue with Los Angeles giving up its two second-round picks and a third rounder this season to move up is that it won’t be able to add any real skill-position players for the remainder of the draft.
As of right now, Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin would return as the Rams’ two top receivers. They combined for 88 receptions and eight touchdowns while catching 55 percent of the passes thrown in their direction.
Short of the Rams acquiring another top-flight receiver in a trade (unlikely) or through some other avenue, Goff would struggle out of the gate. That’s only magnified by the presence of two of the league’s best defenses, the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, in the NFC West.
From a dynasty perspective, Goff to the Rams would likely make him the third-best option out there behind Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry, especially based on where we have those two running backs mocked.
2. Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz (QB – North Dakota State)
North Dakotans didn’t seem to want Wentz on the Browns. And for good measure. Cleveland has almost literally been a graveyard for quarterbacks. It doesn’t matter who the coach or general manager has been; this position has failed to do anything of substance for the Browns since they returned to the NFL in 1999.
The good news for North Dakotans and those of you who have already added Wentz in drafts is he’s now going to end up with the Eagles after they traded up to the No. 2 spot this week.
Even after the trade up, Philadelphia has made it clear that there are no plans to unseat incumbent starter, Sam Bradford. What’s bad news for Wentz’s re-draft value could be good news for his long-term success.
Coming from North Dakota State, the jump in level of competition here would be real. Sitting for a year or two would be best for the small-school product.
With the likes of emerging receivers Nelson Agholor and Jordan Matthews on the roster, Wentz will be in a good position to succeed once he does take over. Though, his dynasty stock would still be a step behind Goff simply because the latter will play sooner.
3. San Diego Chargers: Laremy Tunsil (OT – Ole Miss)
4. Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Ramsey (CB – FSU)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Myles Jack (LB – UCLA)
6. Baltimore Ravens: Vernon Hargreaves III (CB – Florida)
7. New York Jets (via San Francisco): Paxton Lynch (QB – Memphis)
* Projected trade. Jets send 20th pick, second and third rounder to San Francisco
New York has reportedly fallen in love with Lynch during the pre-draft process. With the Ryan Fitzpatrick thing still unsettled, the team is going to have to think long and hard about adding a quarterback. Even if Fitzpatrick does re-sign, he’s not the long-term solution here.
Either way we spin it, Lynch is nothing more than a projection pick. The best situation for him would be to actually go to a team like the Jets and sit behind a veteran. As with Wentz, this would limit his value in deeper re-draft leagues. Though, it would come back to help him over the long term.
8. Oakland Raiders (via Cleveland): Ezekiel Elliott (RB – Ohio State)
No matter where Elliott lands in the upcoming draft, he’s going to be the top rookie pick in dynasty drafts. That’s not even in question. At the level of Todd Gurley last season without concerns over injuries, Elliott has a chance to be that game changer you are looking for in the fantasy football world.
In this specific mock, we have the Raiders trading up from 14 to select the former Buckeye standout. It’s the best of both worlds for the team and the player.
Elliott not only dominated the college football landscape over the past two seasons, going for over 4,100 total yards and 41 touchdowns, he has the ability to be a game-breaker.
Top-level speed, dynamic cutback ability and a physical downhill running game all lead me to believe Elliott could even be a top-five fantasy running back as a rookie.
Teaming him up with Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree in Oakland would make that offense elite. It would also enable Elliott to avoid running against stacked boxes, as the defense will still have to be concerned with Carr’s playmaking ability down the field.
Give Elliott one of the best offensive lines in the game, two elite receivers and a great young quarterback, and he will flourish out of the gate. There’s no reason to think the rookie couldn’t put up top-five fantasy production in Oakland immediately.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DeForest Buckner (DE – Oregon)
10. New York Giants: Reggie Ragland (ILB – Alabama)
11. Chicago Bears: Ronnie Stanley (OT – Notre Dame)
12. New Orleans Saints: Sheldon Rankins (DT – Louisville)
13. Miami Dolphins: William Jackson (CB – Houston)
14. Cleveland Browns (via Oakland: Joey Bosa (DE – Ohio State)
15. Tennessee Titans: A’Shawn Robinson (DT – Alabama)
16. Detroit Lions: Darron Lee (LB – Ohio State)
17. Atlanta Falcons: Noah Spence (EDGE – Eastern Kentucky)
18. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Billings (NT – Baylor)
19. Buffalo Bills: Laquon Treadwell (WR – Mississippi)
Tyrod Taylor completed 64 percent of the passes he threw to wide receivers last season. That’s only one of the numerous stats that back up those who believe the former Virginia Tech standout was on top of his game in his first season with Buffalo.
Now take into account the fact that he was throwing to a somewhat talent-stricken group behind Sammy Watkins, and this is magnified even further.
With Chris Hogan now on the division-rival New England Patriots and Robert Woods failing to live up to expectations, wide receiver becomes a huge need for the Bills.
Just imagined the physical spectacle that Treadwell is lining up opposite Watkins with Taylor tossing the rock. It’s just too sexy.
My top receiver in the class (by a large margin), Treadwell also complements Watkins extremely well. He has the size and the pure strength to make the difficult catches on intermediate routes. He also provides one of the largest catch radii in the entire class.
Treadwell isn’t a burner. He’s not going to beat NFL defenses over the top. Instead, his role will be as an elite-level possession receiver. In this, the Ole Miss product would be a solid early-round add in PPR dynasty leagues.
Also with a pro-ready skill set, there’s no reason that Treadwell wouldn’t be able to come into Buffalo and act as a solid flex option in PPR-heavy, 12-team re-draft leagues.
20. Denver Broncos (via San Francisco): Connor Cook (QB- Michigan State)
* Projected trade: Denver sends 31st pick and second-round pick to San Francisco
This would be somewhat unfortunate for the Broncos. Having to reach for a position of need is never a good thing. Having to do so at the quarterback position as the defending champs makes it that much worst.
What we do know here is that Denver isn’t going to go into the 2016 season with Mark Sanchez as the clear cut start. At the very least, John Elway and co. are going to look for some competition and potentially a quarterback of the future.
Cook has his issues. He struggles with mechanics, displayed horrendous accuracy at times and isn’t among the best decision makers in the draft. These are three aspects of his game that have been magnified during the draft process.
As with Lynch, this would be all about projection. There’s no real scenario that we can envision in which Cook would be the Broncos’ starting quarterback as a rookie. Instead, he’d have to sit for at least one year.
And while Denver has a ton of talent on offense, it is in no way comparable to what the Cardinals’ boast. This makes Cook the fourth-best dynasty option as well as the fourth-best rookie re-draft option of the class.
21. Washington Redskins: Jarran Reed (DT – Alabama)
22. Houston Texans: Corey Coleman (WR – Baylor)
The Texans are going to need to find someone behind DeAndre Hopkins at wide receiver.
After all, the team’s other receivers caught just 110 of the 225 passes thrown in their direction last season (49 percent). Those 100 receptions represented one less than Hopkins by himself. With so much invested in free-agent signing Brock Osweiler from a financial standpoint, the Texans now need to get him some help.
In Coleman, Houston would be adding a player who can beat defenses over the top with elite playmaking ability and a burst that no other top-flight prospect boasts in this draft. He’s not going to be a relevant fantasy performer out of the gate. Instead, the Texans will probably rely on the team’s veterans to help Osweiler in 2016. Coleman also will never be a PPR stud.
What he will bring to the table from a dynasty aspect is an ability to make the big play and come up with the huge performance at times. This is what most owners are looking for when they go wide receiver at flex or look for a high-upside option in leagues with three starting wideouts.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Josh Doctson (WR – TCU)
It became readily apparent last season that the weak-armed Teddy Bridgewater needs that one receiver who can go up and get the ball, a receiver who provides a huge target and an even bigger catch radius. While Stefon Diggs was a surprise performer as a rookie, he’s not that guy. His six-foot frame tells us a story of a receiver who can gain separation down the field and make plays in space. It doesn’t tell us a story of a receiver that can make the contested catch.
At 6-foot-4, Doctson has that ability. He’s exactly what the receiver-needy Vikings need with no one of real substance behind Diggs on the depth chart. During his final two years at Texas Christian, Doctson over 70 percent of the passes thrown in his direction, bringing down 25 touchdowns in the process.
While we hate to project immediate fantasy production from a rookie, Doctson would be an immediate bench option in standard leagues should he land with the Vikings.
Not only would the lanky receiver see a ton of action as a rookie, but he’d also be catching the ball from an extremely accurate quarterback. Two things that equate to fantasy success for someone of his ilk.
From a dynasty aspect, Treadwell is the top receiver in this draft. From a re-draft standpoint, especially if he lands in Minnesota, Doctson takes the cake there.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Robert Nkemdiche (DT – Mississippi)
25. San Francisco 49ers (via Pittsburgh): Jack Conklin (OT – Michigan State)
26. Seattle Seahawks: Taylor Decker (OT – Ohio State)
27. Green Bay Packers: Shaq Lawson (DE/OLB – Clemson)
28. Kansas City Chiefs: Cody Whitehair (G – Kansas State)
29. Arizona Cardinals: Kevin Dodd (DE – Clemson)
30. Carolina Panthers: Mackensie Alexander (CB – Clemson)
31. San Francisco 49ers (via Denver): Michael Thomas (WR – Ohio State)
With Anquan Boldin still deciding where he’s going to play next season, San Francisco simply needs to address the receiver position. Outside of Boldin, 49ers’ receivers caught just 83 passes last season.
Sure quarterback play and horrendous coaching had a major role in this, but that’s just horrible. We can question Torrey Smith’s impact all we want, but he did lead the NFL with an average of 20.1 yards per reception last season. He should also fit well in Chip Kelly’s system.
This makes a possession receiver the larger need in San Francisco. At 6-foot-3 and 223 pounds, Thomas would be that guy for the 49ers. He has the physicality to beat press defenses at the line and gain separation on an intermediate route. He also boasts strong hands and a large catch radius.
As with most bottom-feeding teams, the largest issue here might be at quarterback. In short, we have absolutely no idea who is going to start in San Francisco. That makes Thomas an extremely risky player to rely on early in his career.
Second Round
32. Cleveland Browns: Will Fuller (WR – Notre Dame)
As we mentioned above, Cleveland simply needs to find some skill-position help in the passing game. It would definitely be getting that in this first-round talent.
Size is going to prevent Fuller from being that go-to guy on third down. He’s not going to be a possession receiver at the next level. Instead, it’s all about making the big play. In this, Fuller brings a ton to the table.
He makes the difficult catch down the field, can blaze past defenders with a double move and will gain initial separation when not posed with press coverage. All this was magnified by his 20.3 yards per catch average for Notre Dame last season.
While Fuller will never be a huge PPR guy, there’s no reason to believe he can’t carve out consistent 1,000-yard seasons if presented with the right opportunity in the right scheme, and with the right quarterback.
33. Tennessee Titans: Jason Spriggs (OT – Indiana)
34. Dallas Cowboys: Karl Joseph (S – West Virginia)
35. San Diego Chargers: Darian Thompson (S – Boise State)
36. Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry (RB – Alabama)
If this scenario were to unfold, I’d have a hard time recommending anyone besides Henry as the second pick in rookie drafts behind Elliot.
Not only do the Ravens need to get themselves a running back of the future, Henry fits the team’s downhill running game to an absolute T.
He’s among the most powerful running backs to enter the NFL over the past five years and showed a surprising burst to the edge on tape. At 6-foot-3 and 247 pounds, this former Alabama running back is a battering bull in the backfield.
He also fits the mold of a three-down running back, something that’s becoming extinct in today’s NFL. That gives Henry top-10 overall fantasy upside as a rookie in 2016. Not only is he an elite-level dynasty add, but he should also be an early-round selection in re-draft leagues.
37. Pittsburgh Steelers (via San Francisco): Leonard Floyd (DE – Georgia)
38. Jacksonville Jaguars: Vadal Alexander (G – Louisiana State)
39. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Braxton Miller (WR – Ohio State)
Vincent Jackson has regressed in each of the past two seasons and isn’t getting any younger. While the veteran might have a year or two of solid play ahead of him, the Buccaneers would be smart to find a future running partner for Mike Evans.
In this, Miller would be a projection pick for two-to-three years down the road, someone you nab outside of the first round of rookie drafts and sit on the bench or taxi squad for a year or two. He has the size, physicality and athleticism to be a difference-maker in the NFL. But one year removed from playing quarterback, it’s going to be an extensive learning curve.
40. New York Giants: Deion James (LB – Louisiana State)
41. Chicago Bears: Shilique Calhoun (EDGE – Michigan State)
42. Miami Dolphins: Jalen Mills, Safety, LSU
43. Tennessee Titans: Jaylon Smith (LB – Notre Dame)
44. Cleveland Browns (via Oakland): Keanu Neal (S – Florida)
45. Tennessee Titans: Eli Apple (CB – Ohio State)
46. Detroit Lions: Kendall Fuller (CB – Virginia Tech)
47. New Orleans Saints: Artie Burns (CB – Miami)
48. Indianapolis Colts: Su’a Cravens (LB/S – Southern California)
49. Buffalo Bills: Kamalei Correa (LB – Boise State)
50. Atlanta Falcons: Sterling Shepard (WR – Oklahoma)
I am still at a loss for words that the Falcons would hand Mohamed Sanu the amount of money they gave him in free agency. After all, the former Cincinnati Bengals receiver caught just 33 passes for fewer than 400 yards and zero touchdowns last season.
This tells us a story of a Falcons team that’s desperate to find receiver help behind Julio Jones. If that were to come in the form of this fleet-footed former Sooner prospect, it would be a truly ideal fit. Shepard boasts some of the same assets as we saw from Tyler Lockett in Seattle last season.
That is to say that he has elite downfield ability, something that would come in handy with teams unable to throw double coverage his way in Atlanta. This would be an ideal fit for both 2016 and into the future. It’s one of those picks that makes you think long and hard about not only relying on a second-rounder for future production but immediate fantasy ability.
51. San Francisco 49ers (via New York): Sheldon Day (DT – Notre Dame)
52. Houston Texans: Adolphus Washington (DL – Ohio State)
53. Washington Redskins: Von Bell (S – Ohio State)
54. Minnesota Vikings: Joshua Perry (LB – Ohio State)
55. Cincinnati Bengals: Tyler Boyd (WR – Pittsburgh)
After losing both Sanu and Marvin Jones in free agency, it’s obvious the Bengals are going to have to address this position at some point early in the draft. We waited until the second round for the team to nab a player in Boyd that hasn’t necessarily energized the scouting community after being considered a first-round lock before the 2015 season.
Strong hands remain Boyd’s best asset, which is something the Bengals could use after the numerous amount of drops the team saw last season, A.J. Green included. With a ton of experience in college, Boyd also boasts a pro-ready skill set. This makes him more of a re-draft threat than most people might first imagine.
56. Seattle Seahawks: Chris Jones (DL – Mississippi State)
57. Green Bay Packers: Rashard Higgins (WR – Colorado State)
Higgins to the Packers would be unfair. It would also be a major fit for a team that struggled so much at wide receiver with Jordy Nelson sidelined for the entire 2015 season.
Even with one of the best quarterbacks in the modern era of the game throwing passes to them last year, Packers receivers caught 56 percent of the passes thrown in their direction. Having to play more on the outside than he’s comfortable with, Randall Cobb struggled big time as the team’s default No. 1 receiver. Meanwhile, the likes of James Jones and Davante Adams struggled a great deal taking on larger roles.
Higgins brings the size and strength to be an outside pass catcher opposite Nelson. He’s also consistent in terms of actually catching the ball, which Packers receivers struggled with last season.
58. Pittsburgh Steelers: Sean Davis (CB/S – Maryland)
59. Kansas City Chiefs: Cardale Jones (QB – Ohio State)
The biggest projection pick in this mock, Jones is about three years away from being anywhere near ready to take the field as a starter. The idea here will be to groom him behind Alex Smith before the veteran’s contract expires. It’s a true wild card with no real fantasy impact, neither short term or long term.
60. New England Patriots: Kenny Lawler (WR – California)
We know how the Patriots like to make their youngsters prove it before they see the field. And after signing Chris Hogan away from Buffalo in free agency, any rookie receiver would probably be nothing more than the team’s fourth option at that position.
However, Lawler would be an ideal fit for a Patriots team that needs young blood at wide receiver. He has the size and frame to hold up in the NFL. He also acted as a huge primary target for Goff over the past three seasons, an indication that he will be up for the task against better competition in the NFL.
61. New England Patriots: Shon Coleman (OT – Auburn)
62. Carolina Panthers: Germain Ifedi (OT – Texas A&M)
63. San Francisco 49ers (via Denver): Emmanuel Ogbah (DE/OLB – Oklahoma State)
