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Fantasy Outlook: David Price

Fantasy Outlook: David Price
David Price

Don’t let his ugly ERA fool you, David Price is still elite

That loud sound you heard on Tuesday night was the buy-low window slamming shut for David Price. Truth be told, if the owners in your league were savvy, there probably wasn’t much of a window anyway. But, to the extent an opportunity existed, Price’s eight-inning, 14-strikeout effort against the Braves on Tuesday probably ended it. Still, it was the offensively-challenged (to put it kindly) Braves, and Price’s season numbers – 5.69 ERA, 1.28 WHIP – remain unsightly. So, just in case anyone is still concerned about Price, let’s spend a few minutes getting rid of the lingering doubts.

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First, let’s be clear on Price’s season. It’s been two bad starts – or really, one bad start, one tsunami-like disaster of a start – out of five. He gave up five runs in five innings against Baltimore on April 11. Then, he gave up eight runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Rays on April 21. In both games, he was staked to a nice lead and just gave it right back and then some. The other three starts have been either good or great.

If you’ve been reading my recent articles, you know I’m a big proponent of looking at advanced stats in order to analyze the validity of a player’s performance. Those stats aren’t everything, but I love to use them to try to confirm or contradict what my eyes are telling me. So, if you like that sort of stuff, hang on, it’s coming.

But, if you don’t like that stuff, I’ll give you a simpler explanation. Bad starts happen sometimes. To all pitchers. Price got tagged for eight runs against the Rays on April 21, 2016.  On April 22, 2015 – almost exactly one year prior – he gave up eight runs in 2 1/3 innings to the Yankees. And we know how good the rest of his season was. Price has had three good-to-great starts and two bad ones. Bad starts happen sometimes. So, for those looking for a simple explanation, there it is.

Now, let’s jump into the good stuff. Price’s FIP is 2.44. His xFIP is 2.41. He leads all of baseball with 46 strikeouts and a 14 K/9 rate, and he leads the AL with a 5.75 strikeout to walk ratio. His strikeout percentage of 35.4% is second to only Noah Syndergaard (36.2%). He’s getting career-best swings and misses on every pitch except for his curveball, according to BrooksBaseball.net.

In other words, Price’s stuff is as good or better than it’s ever been. He’s the same guy, but the results haven’t been there. Dig underneath the surface, however, and the weather’s beautiful. So, if you’re thinking about trading for or trading away Price, it’s pretty easy to put a value on him. Your value should be exactly what it was on draft day. And if you’re smart, that value should be really, really high.

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Dan Fisher is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him @dfisher80.

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