Would it have been wise for fantasy owners to draft Jose Altuve first overall?
Team stolen base totals can be fluky since one player can have such a large impact on them. For example, The Cincinnati Reds led the majors in steals last year but probably wouldn’t have done so without Billy Hamilton’s 57 thefts. However, some teams just run more than others.
It’s in their philosophy, and the Houston Astros are one of those teams. They’ve finished third in stolen bases each of the past two seasons and through eight games this year have already stolen nine, which is three more than the next closest team. Leading this brigade is diminutive second baseman Jose Altuve, who may have been undervalued as a late first-round fantasy pick.
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The 26-year-old has been a fantasy force for the past two seasons. In 2014, Altuve led the American League with 225 hits, 56 stolen bases and a .341 average. Last year he once again led the league in hits and steals but this time with just 200 hits and 38 thefts. His batting average dropped to .313, but fantasy owners were delighted to see his home run total increase from seven to 15.
There were two legitimate concerns for Altuve entering 2016, which were whether or not he was going to become a consistent double-digit home run bat and whether his 56 steal season was just an outlier. His stolen base totals the past four seasons have fluctuated from 33 to 35 to 56 to 38. If Altuve can get back to the 50 steal range AND keep his newfound power, the potential is there for him to be fantasy baseball’s most valuable asset.
Altuve’s start to the season hasn’t been headline-grabbing the way Trevor Story’s has. Through eight games he is hitting just .250 with one home run, two RBI, six stolen bases and nine runs scored. What we know about Altuve is that assuming he stays healthy he is relatively safe.
As Houston’s leadoff hitter Altuve is in good position to score runs and receive plenty of at-bats to drive those counting stats. His lowest batting average in four full seasons is .283, and he’s been over .300 each of the past two so owners shouldn’t be worried about his .250 start. Also, the Astros have a proven two-year track record of being aggressive on the base paths and already have the most steals in 2016, which gives Altuve’s stolen base total a solid floor.
Now that we have established Altuve’s floor we can look at his upside to answer the initial question, “should Jose Altuve have been the number one fantasy pick?” The most glaring difference between Altuve and the top picks like Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt and Bryce Harper is power. The opportunity to draft power, which is so valuable because it contributes to home runs, RBI, average and runs scored, really dries up after the first few rounds.
Similar to running backs in fantasy football, there just isn’t enough power to go around. While drafting a stolen base king like Dee Gordon can single-handedly win you a category, the opportunity cost of drafting him is considerable.
So while Altuve’s early stolen base pace looks like it could approach his career high of 56, he would also need to at least even his 15 home run total from last year to be considered among Trout, Goldschmidt and Harper. While this is possible, it does not appear probable. Therefore, fantasy owners should look to “buy low” on Altuve based off upside alone, just don’t sacrifice too much power in the process.
Brendan Tuma is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, follow him @toomuchtuma.
