Buster Posey faces a mediocre lefty in a hitter’s park Monday
The first Monday of May brings us 10 games to work with. The weather looks fairly decent as of now, but as always, monitor this as the day unfolds. Let’s look at a lineup for FanDuel.
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Pitcher
Johnny Cueto (SF): $10,600 @ CIN
The Reds are the worst team in the league against right-handed pitching in terms of wRC+, while striking out 22.2% of the time. Despite this being a horrible park shift in terms of power (best to worst), Cueto is familiar with pitching here. Overall, this lineup is not very intimidating, and Cueto brings the combination of strikeouts coupled with a solid shot at a win, giving him a high floor.
Other Notables
- Dallas Keuchel (HOU): $10,500 vs. MIN
- Bartolo Colon (NYM): $7,700 vs. ATL
Catcher
Buster Posey (SF): $3,400 @ CIN
Posey and the Giants get a massive park shift in terms of power. With catcher being a mess tonight, it makes sense to pay up for the slugger. Brandon Finnegan has allowed 10 home runs to right-handed hitters in just 62.2 IP to them (1.44 HR/9), and Posey has displayed solid skills against lefties the past few seasons (.373 wOBA/.190 ISO).
Other Notables
- Jonathan Lucroy (MIL): $3,000 vs. LAA
- Brett Nicholas (TEX): $2,600 @ TOR
- Josh Thole (TOR): $2,000 vs. TEX (pure punt)
First Base
Edwin Encarnacion (TEX): $3,400 vs. TEX
I’m not one for “calling” home runs, but I’m going to branch out and do it today. Encarnacion has gotten off to a slow start in the power department this season, hitting just three home runs in the month of April. We know how streaky he can get, and this is a great chance to get it rolling tonight against A.J. Griffin. Since 2013, Griffin has a 50% fly ball rate, which has translated to 21 home runs allowed in just 102 IP (1.85 R/9). In case you’re wondering, that’s not good, and pitching in a prime hitter’s park won’t do him any favors tonight. Look for a big game from Encarnacion.
Other Notables
- John Jaso (PIT): $3,200 vs. CHC
- Freddie Freeman (ATL): $3,200 @ NYM (GPP)
- Brandon Moss (STL): $2,700 vs. PHI
Second Base
Jed Lowrie (OAK): $2,700 vs. SEA
Lowrie should remain in the heart of the order and, despite hitting at home, he’s a solid value against Nathan Karns tonight. Karns is a mediocre pitcher at best (4.50 projected ERA rest of season), who has allowed a .318 wOBA to lefties the last couple of years. Lowrie will hold the platoon advantage throughout the game, and he is a solid mid-range play at a tough position to fill.
Other Notables
- Neil Walker (NYM): $4,000 vs. ATL (elite GPP)
- Kelby Tomlinson (SF): $2,100 @ CIN (punt)
Third Base
Matt Duffy (SF): $2,700 @ CIN
I’ve pointed out how favorable the park is, and I’ve also noted that Finnegan has been susceptible to right-handed power, but what draws me to Duffy are the underlying factors. Duffy’s BABIP is currently 42 points lower than last season’s mark, while his line drive rate is over four points higher than 2015. This suggests a bit of tough luck and that is something that should correct itself, thus leading to some improvement in Duffy’s numbers.
Other Notables
- Josh Donaldson (TO): $4,700 vs. TEX (GPP)
- Matt Carpenter (STL): $3,900 vs. PHI
- Adrian Beltre (TEX): $3,400 @ TOR
Shortstop
Jonathan Villar (MIL): $2,700 vs. LAA
Villar continues to produce for the Brewers, and he represents a strong play whether he is hitting first or second in the batting order. Opposing pitcher Jered Weaver is cheating Father Time right now, and his peripheral statistics support this notion. He has an xFIP of 6.03 (3.86 ERA) and a 4.24 K/9 which simply will not get it done in Major League Baseball. Villar should see plenty of scoring chances at or near the top of this lineup.
Other Notables
- Troy Tulowitzki (TOR): $3,400 vs. TEX
- Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM): $2,900 vs. ATL
Outfielders
Michael Conforto (NYM): $4,300 vs. ATL
Conforto has been white hot as of late, and he has a great chance to keep things rolling tonight. Mike Foltynewicz has been horrific against left-handed hitters in a small sample, allowing a whopping .411 wOBA and 12 home runs in just 49.1 IP. He has experienced quite a bit of control issues in the big leagues, which often leads to disaster. Conforto sports a .365 average over his last 10 games, including two home runs and six doubles. He is expensive, but I’ve identified some value options in an effort to make utilizing him possible.
Rafael Ortega (LAA): $2,100 @ MIL
Ortega has been hitting second in the order when the Angels face a right-handed starting pitcher, which would make him a strong punt play if that holds true again tonight. Jimmy Nelson has some rather wide splits, allowing a .357 wOBA and 1.48 HR/9 to left-handed hitters the last couple of seasons. The Angels are in a good hitting environment, so I expect some run-scoring opportunities for Ortega as a result.
Kole Calhoun (LAA): $3,000 @ MIL
For much of the same reasons listed above for Ortega, Calhoun is a solid option tonight. He should see more opportunities to drive in runs as he typically hits in the heart of the order, so playing a mini-stack here isn’t a bad idea.
Other Notables
- Jose Bautista (TOR): $4,300 vs. TEX/Michael Saunders (TOR): $3,400 vs. TEX
- Andrew McCutchen (PIT): $4,000 vs. CHC
- Carlos Gonzalez (COL): $3,700 (elite GPP)
- Curtis Granderson (NYM): $3,600 vs. ATL
- Hunter Pence (SF): $3,400 @ CIN
- Nomar Mazara (TEX): $3,200 @ TOR
- Domingo Santana (MIL): $2,600 vs. LAA
My Lineup
- SP – Johnny Cueto (SF): $10,600 @ CIN
- C – Buster Posey (SF): $3,400 @ CIN
- 1B – Edwin Encarnacion (TOR): $3,400 vs. TEX
- 2B – Jed Lowrie (OAK): $2,700 vs. SEA
- 3B – Matt Duffy (SF): $2,700 @ CIN
- SS – Jonathan Villar (MIL): $2,700 vs. LAA
- OF – Michael Conforto (NYM): $4,300 vs. ATL
- OF – Rafael Ortega (LAA): $2,100 @ MIL
- OF – Kole Calhoun (LAA): $3,000 @ MIL
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.
