Matchups against the Tigers’ and Twins’ mediocre pitching should help Pedro Alvarez this week
Jamie Calandro breaks down the top matchups and streaming options for the week ahead.
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Welcome to this edition of fantasy baseball’s planner for Week 6 (5/9 – 5/15). Whether you play in a league that offers weekly or daily lineup changes, you can still gain a distinct advantage by scouring the matchups for the week ahead and planning accordingly. This is the time to get your FAAB bids in or to make your waiver claims, and I’m here to help target to right guys.
In my DFS work on Fantasy Team Advice, I often write about the benefits of stacking your lineups against certain pitchers (or the reverse – targeting pitchers against certain lineups). While I don’t recommend piling on a ton of hitters from one team in seasonal leagues, you’ll find that the analysis of the selections is similar if you’re a DFS player.
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STREAMING PITCHERS
TWO-START OPTIONS
Joe Ross (WAS) – vs. DET, vs. MIA
Even though Detroit is a tough lineup, these are exactly the two types of matchups you want to target for Ross. He struggles against lefties but has dominated RHB in his short career, holding them to a .192 wOBA while striking them out at a 26.5% rate. These two teams put out at least six righties in their ordinary lineups, and the Tigers will undoubtedly be without Victor Martinez while playing in Washington.
Kevin Gausman (BAL) BAL – @MIN, vs. DET
Gausman has always had mountains of upside but various things have derailed him. He showed off his stuff the other night against the Yankees and gets two decent matchups. The Twins strike out the ninth most in the league at a 23.1% rate, and I already mentioned the Tigers’ excessive right-handedness (they could struggle with Gausman’s slider).
ONE-START WONDERS
John Lamb (CIN) – @PHI
Picking a Reds pitcher is never easy with that abysmal bullpen backing them up, but Lamb has flashed some nice stuff (10.51 K/9 last season) and takes on the Phillies this week. They are winning games thanks to some solid young pitchers but rank dead last in wOBA against LHP while striking out the most in the league against them.
Junior Guerra (MIL) – vs. SD
The 30-year old prospect (yes, you read that right) is very likely unowned in your league, and he’s a prime add for just one start this week. He’s at home which doesn’t help matters, but he’s facing the Padres who rank 28th in wRC+ against RHP while striking out the third most against them. ZiPS and Steamer both project Guerra to strike out about ten batters per innings.
Nathan Karns (SEA) – vs. LAA
For us DFS players, the Padres are always a predictable attack point to deploy pitchers against (and rightfully so). However, something that often gets lost is the fact that the Angels are worse against RHP so far this season, ranking 29th in wRC+ and striking out the second-most against them. Karns’ walk rate is a bit high, but he’s striking out over a batter per inning for Seattle, and the park factor is pitcher-friendly.
STREAMING HITTERS
START
Jake Lamb (3B – ARI)/Brandon Drury (3B/OF – ARI)
The Diamondbacks have an excellent seven-game schedule on tap. They open their week with a three-game series in Coors, which is fantastic for any team, and then return home for a four-game tilt against the Giants where they will avoid Madison Bumgarner.
Lamb looks to be the biggest beneficiary against a mostly right-handed schedule as he bats second. Two of those starts will be against Jake Peavy (9.00 ERA) and Matt Cain (7.84 ERA).
Pedro Alvarez (1B/DH – BAL)
Will J.J. Hardy on the shelf, Alvarez is ticketed for pretty much a spot in the lineup every day. This is the sort of week that can help him get back on track as well.
The Orioles will take on the Twins and Tigers who have very mediocre starting pitching and terrible bullpens. Alvarez will see almost all right-handed pitchers (he has a career .340 wOBA and .226 ISO vs. RHP) and will avoid Jordan Zimmermann.
Asdrubal Cabrera (SS- NYM)
The Mets are another team that are scheduled to avoid the top ace on a team during a four game series (they won’t see Kershaw), and then they finish the week in Coors Field. The Rockies’ bullpen ranks 29th in xFIP and Cabrera has a solid .821 OPS against RHP this season (the Mets are scheduled to face five of them).
SIT
Victor Martinez (1B/DH – DET)
Detroit is playing in a National League park this week (Washington) which completely removes V-Mart from consideration. As nothing more than a traditional DH, he will be relegated to pinch-hitting duties only during that series, and should be replaced in your lineup for the coming week.
Justin Smoak (1B – TOR)
With Chris Colabello suspended, Smoak has been seeing regular playing time (either at 1B or DH). Toronto does play a three-game series in San Francisco this weekend, and one would think Smoak would be the one to sit since Edwin Encarnacion is perfectly capable of playing first (and Toronto strongly would prefer his bat in the lineup to Smoak’s). Given that fact, Smoak shouldn’t play more than a maximum of four games this week, and he’s not worth being deployed.
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