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2018 NBA Free Agency Primer

2018 NBA Free Agency Primer

The last time we saw a crop of free agents as exciting as this season’s was eight years ago when The Decision happened. The top three names, who we all remember well, went to the Heat followed by mega deals for Dirk Nowitzki, Amar’e Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Yao Ming, Paul Pierce, David Lee and Carlos Boozer. This year’s class may be even more impressive. Today, I’ll tell you where I see the top 60 free agents signing and give you five potential sleepers to keep an eye on. Before we go in those directions, however, let me share the five most important pieces I see changing teams via free agency.

Five Biggest Movers

LeBron James to the 76ers – Many are banking on the best player in the world putting on a yellow jersey next season, and while that shouldn’t be ruled out, they are nowhere near as likely to win now than the 76ers. Sure, that could change if Kawhi was dealt there and Paul George eventually signed with James, but there is virtually no chance the Spurs will help tempt LeBron to a rival team. Houston appears to be out, which makes sense considering both James Harden and Chris Paul also need the ball in their hand. That realistically leaves Cleveland and San Antonio with New York, Chicago, Boston, Denver and Atlanta as long shots. There are cases to be made for each of those, but if you are to bet, choose the team most likely to win multiple titles.

DeMarcus Cousins to the Mavs – Now, it is entirely possible that he sticks around as a second fiddle to Anthony Davis, or perhaps the Pelicans finally cave in and deal A.D. to Boston for Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier and a lottery pick. Assuming neither of those is likely to happen, however, Cousins seems like the most likely big name to be on the move. He is coming off a significant injury, which should put a dent in the demand, but you can bet some team will be willing to pay huge money to bring in Cousins and make him the face of their organization. Mark Cuban would do that in a heartbeat and the Mavs could suddenly be a budding playoff contender.

Clint Capela to the Lakers – Los Angeles saved up over 60 million dollars in cap space to make a major splash this off-season, but it just won’t be in the cards this year. The Spurs essentially refuse to send Kawhi to L.A. which is a contributing reason why I have LeBron going to Philly. If LeBron doesn’t sign with the Lakers, chances are, Paul George will stick around with OKC rather than going to a team who is not ready to compete at the highest level. This leaves the Lakers with gobs of money so expect them to throw a max deal at a player like Capela, leaving Houston no choice but to let him walk.

Jabari Parker to the Bulls – While Milwaukee has the pieces to compete now and in the future, it seems unlikely that they will offer Parker a max deal. Chicago has the second most cap space, however, and can certainly afford to bring in a potential cornerstone piece. After all, Parker is still just 23 years old and has already flashed exceptional talent. Add in the fact that he is from Chicago and the signing makes plenty of sense. He already has a major surgery to his name, so it is risky, but the Bulls have to take a chance if they want to bring in a star.

DeAndre Jordan to the Pacers – The Clippers told us everything we needed to know when they sent Austin Rivers packing in a deal for Marcin Gortat. They do not expect Jordan to re-sign, so they needed to acquire another center. Both Sacramento and Dallas are options for DJ, but if he has a shot to play playoff basketball without a paycut, you can expect him to take that option. Indiana doesn’t quite have the money yet, but if Thaddeus Young leaves town, the Pacers would be able to pay for another stud big man. Yes, Myles Turner is already in place, but the Pelicans made it work with Davis and Cousins so Indiana might try their hand here as well.

Potential Fantasy Sleepers to Monitor

Derrick Rose – After the disaster we saw last season, it is easy to forget that Rose posted 18 points per game for the Knicks in the 2016-17 season. If he lands in the right spot he can be a worthwhile fantasy contributor or in the very least, a tremendous backup for a playoff team.

Fred VanVleet – Few expected the 6’0″ point guard to break out last season, but that’s exactly what happened. The Raptors would love to keep him as their sixth man, but you can bet some team will pay enough to pry him away and into a starting role. Per 36 minutes, he averaged 15.5 PPG, 5.8 APG, 4.4 RPG and 1.6 SPG last season so don’t hesitate to draft him in fantasy if he gets a crack at starting.

Dante Exum – Many have already given up on Exum after four injury-riddled years, but let’s not forget that he is still just 22 years old! The 6’6″ guard is a freak athlete who many considered to be among the most talented players in the 2014 draft. If we finally get a healthy year, don’t be surprised if Exum is one of the biggest breakout players in fantasy basketball.

Nerlens Noel – Much like Michael Porter Jr. this season, Noel fell in the draft after being the most talented player in his class. Injuries and a stacked Philly frontcourt kept him from showcasing that upside, but it certainly isn’t too late. Noel just turned 24 years old in April and might finally get a chance to display what he is capable of with another new team and a full bill of health.

Michael Carter-Williams – No one in their right mind would suggest that MCW is the great player we once imagined he may become, but that is vastly different discussion than the fantasy upside he offers. Now that he might not be stuck behind Kemba Walker or Derrick Rose like the past two seasons, we may see him return to the 15/7/6 type of lines he posted three seasons in a row to begin his still young career.

Top 60 Free Agent Big Board with Predictions

  1. LeBron James (SF) — Aiming for multiple championships in Philly
  2. Kevin Durant (SF) — Sticks with Golden State. It is his team after all, not Steph’s
  3. DeMarcus Cousins (C) — On to Dallas to be the face of the franchise
  4. Paul George (SF) — Staying with the Thunder after LeBron leaves him hanging
  5. Chris Paul (PG) — Sticking with Houston and aiming for revenge on Golden State
  6. Clint Capela (C) — The Lakers offer more than Houston is willing to match
  7. Aaron Gordon (PF)Orlando does whatever it takes to keep him in town
  8. Jabari Parker (SF) — Going back home to play for the Bulls in Chicago
  9. DeAndre Jordan (C) — Joins Oladipo and company to win in Indiana
  10. Julius Randle (PF) — The Lakers overspend to keep him in town after plans fall apart
  11. Tyreke Evans (SG) – With Cousins departing, New Orleans offers him a beefy contract
  12. Derrick Favors (PF) — Jumps ship for warmer weather to play with the Clippers
  13. Jusuf Nurkic (C)Houston uses him as a band-aid for Capela leaving town
  14. Will Barton (SG) — Opts for a job in the Lakers’ starting lineup over coming off the bench
  15. Marcus Smart (SG) — Boston signs then trades him as part of a package to the Spurs for Kawhi
  16. Elfrid Payton (PG) — The Hawks scoop him up after moving on from Schroder
  17. Zach LaVine (SG)Chicago brings him back to build around Lauri and Jabari
  18. Avery Bradley (SG)Philly upgrades from Redick to one of the top 3-and-D guards
  19. Rajon Rondo (PG) — Sticks around in New Orleans with Anthony Davis
  20. JJ Redick (SG) — With Kawhi leaving, the Spurs have enough money to bring in Redick
  21. Trevor Ariza (SF) — Commits to making another run at the title in Houston
  22. Rudy Gay (SF) — Takes a pay cut to join up with LeBron on the 76ers
  23. Thaddeus Young (PF)Utah uses Thaddeus to fill the void left by Favors
  24. Isaiah Thomas (PG)Orlando buys a lottery ticket hoping to find the 2016 version of Isaiah
  25. Fred VanVleet (PG) — With Elfrid leaving, Phoenix nabs VanVleet from the Raptors’ bench
  26. Enes Kanter (C) – New York
  27. Michael Beasley (PF) – New Orleans
  28. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG) – Detroit
  29. Dwayne Wade (SG) – Miami
  30. Brook Lopez (C) – Charlotte
  31. Rodney Hood (SF) – Milwaukee
  32. Dante Exum (PG) – Toronto
  33. Greg Monroe (C) – Washington
  34. Kyle Anderson (SF) – Cleveland
  35. Derrick Rose (PG) – Boston
  36. Dirk Nowitzki (PF) – Dallas
  37. Nerlens Noel (C) – Boston
  38. Ersan Ilyasova (PF) – San Antonio
  39. Montrezl Harrell (PF) – LA Clippers
  40. Luc Mbah a Moute (PF) – Houston
  41. Wayne Ellington (SG) – Denver
  42. David West (PF) – Golden State
  43. Tony Parker (PG) – San Antonio
  44. Lance Stephenson (SG) – Milwaukee
  45. Marco Belinelli (SG) – Philadelphia
  46. Shabazz Napier (PG) – Portland
  47. Noah Vonleh (PF) – Atlanta
  48. Kyle O’Quinn (C) – Dallas
  49. Michael Carter-Williams (PG) – Minnesota
  50. Alex Len (C) – LA Lakers
  51. Danny Green (SG) – Miami
  52. Joe Johnson (SF) – Toronto
  53. Mario Hezonja (SF) – Orlando
  54. Jahlil Okafor (C) – Cleveland
  55. Vince Carter (SF) – Toronto
  56. Doug McDermott (SF) – Philadelphia
  57. Ed Davis (PF) – Portland
  58. Nemanja Bjelica (PF) – Minnesota
  59. Jamal Crawford (SG) – Phoenix
  60. Yogi Ferrell (PG) – Dallas

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