The 2018 season brought with it a number of surprising breakout performances that we, as dynasty GMs, must now use to reassess how we value players going into 2019. Sometimes the signs were there, as in the case of Tyler Lockett specifically, but huge seasons from Tyler Boyd and Amari Cooper were a bit tougher to predict. This article will focus on two of these wide receivers and present some reasoning as to why we as a dynasty community should expect these performances to continue.
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Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)
3 years, $30.75M
Out 2020
Free Agent 2021
Lockett’s 2018 season started with an oft-overlooked contract extension that was easy to dismiss as the receiver had been no stranger to the treatment table over the two previous seasons. But Seattle saw what they had in the speedster and were proven right with his play this year. The Seattle receiver assumed the role of the number one target more often than not in 2018, as fellow receiver, Doug Baldwin dealt with injury issues of his own. But that doesn’t quite tell the full story. Lockett outplayed his competition on a per touch basis. According to data gathered from Josh Hermeyer’s airyards.com and PlayerProfiler.com Lockett assumed the WR1 role and performed like the WR1 on his team.
Tyler Lockett, One hit wonder? Not so fast. pic.twitter.com/1B8LRkyOWA
— Etan Mozia (@FF_Wonderkid) January 19, 2019
Not pictured above were his astounding TD numbers as he scored 10 total, 7.8 over expectations. On only 71 targets, enough for only 58th in the NFL, that level of production is unsustainable. However, there is a path for Lockett’s targets to increase. Baldwin is coming off his second down season consecutively and his contract makes releasing or trading him more of a possibility than it has been in years past. Per contract data from Spotrac.com, Baldwin’s 2019 deal rises to a cap number of $13M+ with a dead cap of only 6.3M. $10M of savings for a team with decisions to make about resigning Earl Thomas, KJ Wright, and Frank Thomas among others can be too much to pass up. Even if Baldwin is retained, the Seahawks league bottom pass ratio of 47.56% should tick up, leading to more targets all around.
Just entering his prime at 26 years old, Lockett is a WR sure to be undervalued once more in 2019. Don’t let that happen in your league.
Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)
4 years, $4.3M
Out Every Year
Free Agent 2020
Boyd’s ECR FantasyPros Dynasty ADP of 31 is underselling what he showed in 2018. Not only has he steadily improved on a per target basis every year in his young career, he has improved his ability to work downfield. His ten-yard aDOT in 2018 was the highest of his career and top 50 at the position. Combined with a top 25 target share these two factors coincided with the first year he eclipsed 1000 yards. The 426 YAC, Boyd accounted for last season was a top ten mark in the league and illustrates the truly dynamic intermediate threat Boyd has become.
Watch as @boutdat_23 goes over 1,000 receiving yards on the season. 🙌
Boyd is the first #Bengals wide receiver not named A.J. Green to accomplish this feat since Chad Johnson in 2009. #OAKvsCIN #SeizeTheDEY pic.twitter.com/ZWP8XVRjjl
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) December 16, 2018
From a team situation perspective, Boyd also has a number of positive signs that should appeal to forward-thinking dynasty GMs. He’ll be just 24 when the 2019 season kicks off and will have the benefit of limited competition on the roster. With AJ Green back to take the burden of CB1 coverage away from him next season, expect Boyd to reestablish himself as the prototypical modern-day number two WR. The presence of Andy Dalton will also be an upgrade from what Boyd worked with for much of last season. In 2018, FantasyPros recorded Boyd as averaging a top 20 per game target share and scoring the 20th most PPG.
Boyd will be a top 24 receiver at the very least once again. A top 16 finish would not be surprising.
Agree? Think I’m nuts? Have other guys you’d like me to spotlight? Let me know on Twitter @FF_Wonderkid.
Unsustainable NFL Performances
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Etan Mozia is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Etan, follow him @FF_Wonderkid.
