FantasyPros &#187; Draft Prep

Pat has proven to be one of the most accurate prognosticators in the fantasy industry. In 2009, he was the runner-up in our in-season accuracy competition and this past year he finished 3^rd overall in our draft rankings study.

As the site’s Senior Editor, Jared serves as a jack of all trades for Draft Sharks. His contributions include weekly rankings & projections, featured articles, scouting reports, and player profiles.

Keet doubles as a Fantasy Football & Draft Analyst for NFL Soup. This past season he headed up the site’s draft coverage including player rankings, profiles and combine reports.

Chris has been a staff writer at FFToday since 2008 and he brings a strong analytical approach to his writing. One of his most impressive feature articles has been a production efficiency analysis of each position.

Andrew founded Kramerica Sports in 2010 after drawing inspiration from a Seinfeld episode (giddyup!). In addition to his writing, he also developed an innovative CPR rating system that assesses the consistency of NFL players.

Q&A

Q1: Below is a list of the top 12 RBs (STD leagues) and their overall ADP. Factoring in where each player is being drafted, who do you feel will be the biggest disappointment and why?

Adrian Peterson – (#1)
Arian Foster – (#2)
Ray Rice – (#3)
Jamaal Charles – (#4)
Chris Johnson – (#5)
LeSean McCoy – (#8)
Rashard Mendenhall – (#9)
Maurice Jones-Drew – (#13)
Darren McFadden – (#14)
Michael Turner – (#16)
Frank Gore – (#19)
Steven Jackson – (#21)

Answer: Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC)

McCoy seems like a slight overreach at #8, and the 49ers’ offense is in such a state of disarray that it seems unlikely Gore will provide second-round value, BUT … Maurice Jones-Drew seems destined to be the biggest disappointment relative to his ADP. His recovery from offseason knee surgery was a slow one, and MJD has said that he found out during last year’s training camp that it was bone scraping against bone — meaning he played the season with his knee in that condition. Yikes. Then add to MJD’s knee concerns the fact that backup Rashad Jennings (now dealing with a knee injury himself, though a relatively minor one) is a very good running back. Even if Jones-Drew is completely healthy this season — which I doubt — it makes sense for the Jaguars to save wear and tear on MJD by giving Jennings a significant chunk of the workload. I’m not enthusiastic about MJD.

Answer: Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC)

This is an easy one. It’s Maurice Jones-Drew. I love the dude, but there’s way too much working against him this season. He’s returning from offseason knee surgery to repair a scary “bone-on-bone” condition; has a poor supporting cast around him; and has a talented backup behind him in Rashad Jennings, who will siphon more carries this season. No way I’m touching MJD in the 1st-round.

Answer: Jamaal Charles (KC)

The biggest disappointment, and one of the more overrated players being drafted is Jamaal Charles. Charles has gone as high as #2 in many leagues that I’ve drafted in, and no lower than #5 overall. A lot of fantasy owners are confident that he will see more carries, and have an even bigger impact on their teams in 2011. But it’s hard to imagine Charles getting back to a 6.4 YPC average like in 2010. He’s an explosive runner with loads of talent that should get 20-25 touches a game, but I’m not expecting a repeat. 2010 featured a slew of poor run defenses that Charles faced, and his 2011 campaign may not be as smooth, especially during playoff weeks when he faces the Patriots, Steelers, Bears, Jets, and Packers defenses between Weeks 11 and 15.

Answer: Michal Turner (ATL)

I think both Michael Turner and Steven Jackson will fall to the middle, but if I pick just one I’m going Michael Turner if only because he is less diverse than Jackson. In watching his games, he runs a little more east/west than in the past and that is not his strength. The offense is being handed over to Matt Ryan this year. They will pass more, and Turner won’t be on the field when they do.

Answer: Darren McFadden (OAK)

McFadden has the skill set to be a top five fantasy player, as his combination of speed and size is all but unmatched in the NFL. Unfortunately, he also has proven to be injury prone over the first few years of his career and cannot be counted on as a true #1 RB. In addition, Michael Bush has proven that he is a more than capable backup and will continue to be active in the offense when McFadden returns. Fantasy owners have been drafting him as a low end number one running back, yet we feel he should be viewed as more of an excellent number two.

Q2: Below is a list of the top 12 WRs (STD leagues) and their overall ADP. Factoring in where each player is being drafted, who do you feel will be the biggest disappointment and why?

Andre Johnson – (#7)
Calvin Johnson – (#11)
Roddy White – (#12)
Larry Fitzgerald – (#15)
Vincent Jackson – (#17)
Hakeem Nicks – (#18)
Greg Jennings – (#22)
DeSean Jackson – (#24)
Mike Wallace – (#25)
Miles Austin – (#29)
Reggie Wayne – (#31)
Dwayne Bowe – (#35)

Answer: DeSean Jackson (PHI)

All of those are pretty reasonable values. The only ones that raise my eyebrows a little are DeSean Jackson and Miles Austin. But I do like Austin, and my only concern with him is that Dez Bryant might keep his head screwed on properly and start cutting into Austin’s numbers. But the correct answer here is probably DeSean Jackson. Yes, he’s a big-play guy who might win you a game or two by himself, but he’s not especially consistent, and he’s not going to be an 80-catch guy (his career best is 62 catches). When you factor in his four punt-return TDs and three rushing TDs, he’s scored 24 TDs in three seasons. That’s 8 per year, which is good but not great, and if you set the over-under on Jackson TDs at 8 for this year, I’d play the under.

Answer: DeSean Jackson (PHI)

DeSean Jackson is being over-valued as the 8th WR off the board. Even if he ends the season as a top-10 guy, his volatility from game-to-game makes him less valuable than his final numbers would indicate. Plus, durability is a problem. D-Jax has missed 3 games in his first 3 seasons — plus parts of a bunch more. At just 5’10 and 175 pounds, you can’t count on 16 games from him.

Answer: Mike Wallace (PIT)

To me, the biggest disappointment among some of the top wide receivers drafted is Mike Wallace. Wallace seemed a bit more lucky than anything in 2010, especially considering a few of his touchdowns early in the season came off of tipped passes in the end zone. I fully expect one, if not both, of Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown to have a small coming out party. With teams adding help over the top for Mike Wallace, Sanders and/or Brown should be able to snake a few receptions from the speedster. It’s not unrealistic to expect a very high yards per catch average again, but I don’t see double digit touchdowns, and I’m not comfortable with Wallace as a WR1.

Answer: Dwayne Bowe (KC)

Dwayne Bowe devoured some weak defenses last year in an incredible 6 week run which netted 13 TDs. TDs are more random than yards and receptions. The Chiefs will have a tougher schedule, they lost some offensive creativity with Charlie Weis bolting, and he will have more weapons to contend with in improving TE Tony Moeaki and newly acquired Steve Breaston, who is an improvement over Chris Chambers.

Answer: Dwayne Bowe (KC)

Bowe was a fantasy darling down the stretch as he delivered 5 multi-TD games on his way to 15 touchdowns in 2010. The fifth year wide receiver from LSU carried more than one fantasy team to glory last season, and he is certainly an excellent option for owners this season.

Fantasy players who draft Bowe should not expect another 15 TD season due to the fact that other teams will now have a greater understanding of the Chiefs offense under Todd Haley, and the Chiefs do not have the same favorable schedule they enjoyed last season. In addition, Matt Cassel has looked poor this pre-season and appears to be primed for another slow start. We recommend avoiding Bowe at his current ADP while using that pick on a second RB or top tier wide receiver, then try to acquire Bowe via trade after a second consecutive slow start.

Q3: Below is a list of the top 8 QBs (STD leagues) and their overall ADP. Factoring in where each player is being drafted, who do you feel will be the biggest disappointment and why?

Michael Vick – (#6)
Aaron Rodgers – (#10)
Tom Brady – (#20)
Philip Rivers – (#27)
Drew Brees – (#30)
Peyton Manning – (#42)
Tony Romo – (#46)
Matt Schaub – (#59)

Answer: Michael Vick (PHI)

Oh lord, it’s Vick by a mile. I think it’s lunacy to take him in the first round. He doesn’t even begin to compare with the other top quarterbacks — Rodgers, Rivers, Brady, Brees, P. Manning, Romo — in terms of passing accuracy and decision-making on his throws. Vick needs to do a lot of running to prop up his fantasy value, and the more he runs, the greater the risk of injury. With quarterbacks who are known for their running ability, their season-to-season rushing TDs tend to fluctuate wildly. Vick had 9 rushing TDs last year, but in his 16 starts with the Falcons in 2006, he had 2. In 15 starts in 2004, he had 3. And then, of course, there’s the personal stuff. He’s paid his debt to society, fine. He might even be truly reformed as a human being. But if he’s not and he slips up, Roger Goodell will come down on him hard, possibly with an indefinite suspension. Oh, and let’s also remember that Vick admitted he didn’t go all out when he was playing for the Falcons. Again, maybe Vick is completely reformed. Or maybe not. Think there’s any question that Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers or Tom Brady will go all out this season? Vick can be a one-of-a-kind weapon in fantasy football, but there’s some enormous downside here. The possibility that he turns into another Kordell Stewart shouldn’t be disregarded.

Answer: Michael Vick (PHI)

No QB is worth the 6th-overall pick. I don’t care if it’s a Frankenstein creation with Dan Marino’s arm strength, Steve Young’s accuracy, and, well, Michael Vick’s mobility. In a standard league (start 1 QB, 4 points per passing TD), there’s just no value at QB in the 1st-round. Even if Vick repeated last year’s production — and I’d bet heavily against that — he wouldn’t be worth the 6th-overall pick.

Answer: Michael Vick (PHI)

All of the top eight quarterbacks being drafted are loaded with talent and will be huge for their respective fantasy teams. However, I struggle to justify drafting Michael Vick in the middle (and sometimes higher) of the first round. I’m more than comfortable sacrificing 20-30 overall fantasy points per season in order to draft a quarterback a round or two later, if it means getting a top notch running back like Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, or perhaps even Ray Rice if they fall. Vick is talented, but teams will be coming for him, and it’s not going to be easy to repeat his shocking 2010 season when every team on the Eagles’ schedule is going to be head hunting him.

Answer: Matt Schaub (HOU)

It’s Matt Schaub, but not because of his play. The improved defense will mean the Texans are not in as many shoot-outs or playing from behind as often where fantasy points get racked up. With the emergence of Foster and Tate at RB, this is a team that will turn the corner, play with the lead, and run the ball to hang on to it.

Answer: Michael Vick (PHI)

Vick stormed back onto the fantasy landscape in 2010 after spending two years away from football in a federal penitentiary. It has been well documented that his comeback season was one for the ages, but a closer look with our Kramerica Sports Fantasy CPR ranking shows that he was near fantasy gold last season. Vick scored an Elite CPR rating of 50% in 2010, meaning that he was a top 5 fantasy quarterback in half of the games he started. He was also a model of consistency when not on top of his game, ranking in the top 10 of fantasy quarterbacks an astounding 80% of the time.

Now that I have sufficiently promoted Vick to the point of demigod status, I want to explain why I think he is going to be a bust this season as the first quarterback taken overall. First off, he has never finished a full 16 game season, and his reckless abandon on the gridiron and his relative small stature make us believe he will not make it through a whole season. Second, opposing defenses have 10 full games of film from last season to use when game-planning the Eagles. Vick and Andy Reid will still be a force this season, however I don’t believe they will post numbers like last season.

—

I’d like to thank this week’s Featured Pros for stopping by to share their thoughts. Outside of the general consensus that Michael Vick is overvalued, there was a great variety in the responses this week. We’ll be keeping track of each pick to see who nailed their predictions.

In the meantime, be sure to follow each expert on Twitter and visit their sites to stay current with their latest updates and articles.

Pat Fitzmaurice – @ProFootballWkly

Jared Smola – @DraftSharks

Keet Bailey – @NFLSoupKeet

Chris Eakin – @FF_Today

Andrew Swanson – @KramericaSports

Photo Credits: #1, #2, #3

The Roundup: A Weekly Cheat Sheet of Headline News

Jenny — Sun, 28 Aug 2011 08:52:03 +0000

The guys in my brother’s league have no idea that I’ve been managing his team behind the scenes for the past three years. It’s been a good partnership between the two of us. He gets to slack off in terms of keeping up with the news, and I get to beat up on his friends. . . without making them feel bad for losing to a girl!

When the opportunity came up to provide help to a wider audience of slackers (oops, I mean players), I gladly accepted the challenge. This is my first edition of The Roundup – a weekly summary of the most important news and events around this crazy, unpredictable and information-driven obsession called fantasy football.

If you were too busy during the week to keep up with the news or you took a much needed vacation (without your laptop), then this post should be pretty helpful. I’ll be doing these every Saturday afternoon once the season begins, so hopefully this series will serve as a reliable way to catch up before Sunday’s games. Now that my intro and first-post-jitters are out of the way, let’s get down to business…

Important news from Saturday’s preseason games (yes, the preseason matters!):

Arian Foster aggravated his hammy. Foster may have been just as upset as his fantasy owners as he reportedly threw his helmet in disgust. Let the Ben Tate and Derrick Ward discussions begin.

Wes Welker left the game with a neck injury. I’m not sure how serious the injury is, but this is clearly something to keep an eye on.

According to Judy Battista of the New York Times, Kenny Britt won’t be suspended. That doesn’t change the fact that he’s still nursing a hamstring injury, but this is terrific news for the Titan.

Jeremy Maclin and Steve Smith, were back on the practice field today; a welcome development for them… and Vick. Oh, in case you’re a super-slacker, we’re talking about the former-Giant-now-an-Eagle-Steve-Smith.

Other headlines from this week:

Colts sign Kerry Collins: Outside of today’s injury headline (my apologies to Foster owners for bringing it up again), this has got to be the biggest news of the week. Obviously not because Collins is such a big-name quarterback but because, according to many, of what this signing may say about the seriousness of our beloved Peyton’s injury and his status for Week 1.

Peyton Manning hopes to be ready in Week 1: Indeed, the Colts’ signing of Collins on Wednesday immediately prompted speculation that Peyton might not be ready for the Colts’ season-opener against the Texans on September 11. Because I’m such a huge fan of Peyton’s, I found this speculation to be incredibly depressing and terrifying. The scariest moment for me was when I was reading the part of a “Breaking News” email from Joe Bryant at Footballguys on Wednesday where he discussed the seriousness of a neck injury and how it was “an entirely different injury than a knee or shoulder when it comes to considering the quality of life for the rest of his life.” And as if that weren’t horrifying enough, this email also mentioned something that I never knew before – that Peyton’s big brother, Cooper, ended his football career because of a neck injury. BUT here’s some good news: Peyton at least sounded much more hopeful about his status for Week 1 when he did an interview with CBS during the Colts’ preseason game against the Packers on Friday night. I must say, it felt quite strange to see him in street clothes during Friday night’s game, and I really hope that he will be able to continue his streak of never missing a game in his already remarkable career.

Titans and Chris Johnson fail to reach a deal: The meeting between the Titans and Johnson ended without a deal on Wednesday in Nashville. Johnson, who still has 2 more years left in his current contract, reportedly is seeking a new contract that will pay him more than $35 million guaranteed and $13 million per year. The Titans head coach Mike Munchak also indicated on Thursday that the Titans were not considering trading Johnson. I don’t think many people expected this contract dispute to be dragged out for this long, but obviously, this is major news for all you fantasy owners out there who either have already drafted Johnson or are currently thinking of drafting him. If you’re looking for some fantasy advice regarding this situation, there’s a great post from The Hazean, “Daily Haze: What Chris Johnson’s Holdout Means for Fantasy Owners” which strongly advises you to draft Johnson’s backups (either Javon Ringer or Jamie Harper with Ringer being the more experienced back) if you’re thinking of drafting Johnson.

Kyle Orton named starting QB for Broncos: For some reason, I LOVE quarterback controversies. I think they make this whole experience of watching football so much more interesting and exciting. The Broncos Head Coach John Fox officially named Orton as his starting quarterback on Monday based on his performance during the training camp and the 2 preseason games earlier this month thereby putting an end to the quarterback controversy in Denver (at least when it comes to the starting quarterback situation and at least for now). But it looks like the #2 quarterback in Denver is still yet to be determined between Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow, and as Jason Muckley from BleacherReport points out in his article, “Kyle Orton Named Starting Quarterback for Denver Broncos, but for How Long?” it’s very likely that there will be another quarterback controversy once again in the Mile-High City if the Broncos get off to a rough start this year as they did last year.

Redskins yet to name their starting QB (Rex Grossman vs. John Beck): Unlike his counterpart in Denver, Mike Shanahan still hasn’t made his decision on his starting quarterback yet in our nation’s Capital. According to David Ginsburg’s article, “Redskins QB Situation Remain Unsolved,” both Grossman and Beck played decent enough in Thursday night’s preseason game against the Ravens with each throwing for more than 100 yards and a touchdown, but because neither was successful in distinguishing himself from the other, it looks like this quarterback controversy in Washington will continue for at least a little longer. Now I know the epic battle between these two guys may not have much fantasy relevance for your draft (since both have ECR’s beyond QB #30), but like I said, I love QB controversies!

Well, that about wraps it up for us this week. Hope you guys found this weekly roundup to be helpful and somewhat enjoyable as well. I’ll be doing these posts each week, starting with the first week of the season. In other words, I get to slack and take Labor Day weekend off. : )

And of course, I can’t end this post without wishing everyone good luck with their draft. Best of luck, everyone!

Photo Credit: Link

Featured Pros: Keeper and Dynasty Value Picks

dave — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 07:37:04 +0000

I have a tough time remembering who I had on my team last year except for my personal sleeper pick, Arian Foster (thank you BigNoise). That’s probably because I play in “redraft” leagues where we solicit the services of the hottest players and then dump them as soon as the season’s over. I’m so commitment phobic that I often add and drop players multiple times before the bye weeks even start!

I’ve been reminded by a good number of our readers that we really ought to provide some Keeper and Dynasty advice, given how many people play this longer-term format. Well, finding good experts is what we do best, so I’m pleased to present keeper and dynasty advice from some of the most respected experts in the industry. Let’s meet our Featured Pros:

Ken Moody – Dynasty League Football
Ken is a co-founder of DynastyLeagueFootball.com and creator of FantasyNewsNetwork.com. Established in 2006, DLF is the original site devoted to dynasty and keeper content. You can follow Ken @DLFootball.

Jene Bramel – FootballGuys
Jene is a long-time writer for FootballGuys.com and a specialist for all things IDP (Individual Defensive Players). If you play in an IDP league, I’d highly recommend following Jene on Twitter @JeneBramel.

Bryan Fontaine – Pro Football Focus
Bryan is regarded as one of the best dynasty minds in the business. He is the Dynasty Editor and a Senior Writer for PFF Fantasy at ProFootballFocus.com. Follow Bryan @Bryan_Fontaine.

Which players do you really like for their long term value, that may not have terrific value this season?

Jene Bramel – FootballGuys

Bilal Powell (NYJ – RB)
I don’t believe that Shonn Greene is the long term answer as the Jets’ featured running back. Greene has struggled with injury, couldn’t beat out LaDainian Tomlinson last year and has never had the sustained success you’d expect in the New York offense. Despite the presence of Greene, Tomlinson and Joe McKnight, the Jets seemed ecstatic to get Powell in the fourth round. He’s not likely to provide any immediate value, but Powell has the talent and potential depth chart opportunity to enter 2012 as the Jets’ featured back. In that role, he’ll easily rank within the top 20 dynasty backs.

Emmanuel Sanders (PIT – WR)
A foot injury has allowed Antonio Brown to steal snaps and opportunity from Sanders this preseason. But I think the possession receiver job is Sanders’ to lose in the longer term. His mix of good hands and route running skill, as well as his willingness as a blocker, make him the natural heir to Hines Ward in Pittsburgh. His breakout may not come until 2012 now, but I think he has 80-1100-8 potential (WR2) in the long term.

Pat Angerer (IND – LB)
Gary Brackett remains under contract as the Indianapolis MLB. But he’s no longer getting the same depth in zone coverage and can’t get sideline to sideline to support the run. Angerer hasn’t yet earned the Colts’ trust in subpackages, but he was taken in the second round last year as Brackett’s long term replacement at MLB. Like Barrett Ruud, he may have to wait two full seasons to take over. When he does, he’ll have LB2 value, or better.

Ken Moody – Dynasty League Football

Julio Jones (ATL – WR)
Jones is a phenomenal athlete who has the ability to dominate a game. Lining up opposite Roddy White, Jones should enjoy favorable coverage, and should post a decent fantasy season as a #2 WR. However, as White ages and Jones becomes more experienced, look for Julio to assume the mantle of the #1 WR, in much the same way Torrey Holt overtook Isaac Bruce in the early 2000’s. Long term, he should be one of the elite WR’s in the league.

Sam Bradford (STL – QB)
Speaking of St. Louis, the Rams QB Sam Bradford right now is at best a decent #2 on an annual redraft team. But given a couple more years to develop, and hopefully a few weapons to deliver his passes to, and he has the look of an eventual elite QB.

Bryan Fontaine – PFF Fantasy

Javon Ringer (TEN – RB)
Javon Ringer has been Chris Johnson’s backup for the past two seasons, but has shown signs that he could be a feature back if given the chance. The team has committed to running the ball more this season, which could lead to a temporary boost in value for Ringer with an increase in carries. The Titans have a tough decision with Chris Johnson’s contract holdout. They will need to let Ringer walk as a free agent after 2012 or decide to replace Johnson with the younger and less expensive option. Both scenarios are beneficial to Ringer’s long-term value and, as a result, he could have a Michael Turner-like impact on a new team. All bets are off if Johnson does holdout this year, Ringer then becomes an instant RB2 for your team.

Antonio Brown (PIT – WR)
Antonio Brown did not get much of an opportunity to play last season. He only saw significant time from Week 14 forward, but when he was on the field, Roethlisberger targeted him often. Brown ended the season with the highest target rate per snap in the entire NFL (27.54%). Emmanuel Sanders has also garnered plenty of buzz; however, Brown came up with more big plays in the playoffs and already has a touchdown grab this preseason against the Eagles’ starting defensive unit. It is too close to call who will be the Steelers’ No. 2 WR of the future, but my money is on Brown.

Taylor Price (NE – WR)
Taylor Price played sparingly as a rookie and was not activated for a game until Week 17 against Miami. Price performed well in spot duty (3 receptions, 4 targets, 41 yards on 23 snaps) and flashed starting ability on the outside. Price’s path to major playing time is blocked by Welker, Branch and Ochocinco but a patient owner could eventually find themselves with a starting wide receiver on the high-powered New England offense.

Which dynasty/keeper players do you think represent exceptional draft value based on their ADP?

Bryan Fontaine – PFF Fantasy

C.J. Spiller (BUF – RB)
C.J. Spiller is a considerable buy low candidate because of the uncertainty in Buffalo. I would not go as far as head coach Chan Gailey did in comparing him to Jamaal Charles, but Spiller was not nearly as bad as his rookie statistics would lead you to believe. Despite a poor yards per rushing attempt (3.8 yards), Spiller was better than the league average with 2.6 rushing yards after contact per attempt. His ability to line up out wide also increases his value in PPR leagues. Spiller ranked in the top 10 in targets per snap among running backs, and he would see a surge in production with more playing time. Spiller’s main obstacles to more playing time are pass protection and ball security.

Austin Collie (IND – WR)
Austin Collie was on pace to finish as the top wide receiver in PPR leagues before he sat out for the remainder of the year due to several concussions. Collie is already fully recovered and is no more likely to have another concussion than any player in the league. Given the age of Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark and Collie’s already heavy involvement in the Colts’ offense, his status as a top 15 WR going forward is not that farfetched. Peyton Manning is 35 years old but there is no question that he’ll be playing into his forties like Favre, another positive for Collie having arguably one of the best quarterbacks of all time in his corner. Collie is a bargain in most drafts, an advantage you can use to secure a WR1 at a fraction of the cost.

Jene Bramel – FootballGuys

Rashad Jennings (JAX – RB)
I really like Maurice Jones-Drew. But while he was more effective than I expected on his bad knee last year, it’s hard to see him holding up over 300-350 touches into his late twenties with his bone-on-bone condition. Jennings has been very good in limited time and the Jaguars’ offensive line showed good potential as an interior run blocking unit last year. He’ll gradually transition to a larger role and is a much better dynasty value than Ryan Torain, Evan Royster, Jordan Todman, Pierre Thomas and, as the RB61, many others ahead of him on this ADP list.

AJ Green (CIN – WR)
Many considered Green the best rookie fantasy prospect in this year’s rookie wide receiver group. Quarterback concerns have limited his perceived upside, but he’s still an elite mix of speed, separation skill and great hands. He’s the unquestioned feature receiver in a West Coast offense designed to get the ball in his hands quickly and often. It will be very disappointing if he’s not seeing 140 or more targets, including plenty of red zone looks, very early in his career and possibly as soon as this year. That’s the profile of a top ten WR. Green’s ADP is WR22, behind a handful of lesser talents in better situations. This is a situation where you’re better served to chase talent over immediate situation. Green is much more likely to be considered alongside Hakeem Nicks and Dez Bryant in five years than Steve Johnson and Percy Harvin. His draft position should reflect that.

Ken Moody – Dynasty League Football

Greg Little (CLE – WR)
Little is a tough, hard-nosed competitive wide receiver who could have gone much higher in the draft were it not for a suspension in 2010. He finds himself in a terrific situation with a rapidly improving young QB in Colt McCoy, and very little competition at the WR spot. He has had a fairly positive training camp, with some early struggles being eclipsed by more recent flashes of brilliance. He may not see full WR#1 duties this season, but in a couple years we will likely be looking back at him as the third best WR in this year’s class. For where he is going right now in many keeper drafts, he’s an excellent value.

Kendall Hunter (SF – RB)
Hunter’s value is tied directly to Frank Gore. Until Gore is injured or moves on from the starting role, Hunter will remain a backup. But factor in Gore’s age (28 this year) and the heavy workload he has seen, and you can see the edge of the RB cliff is not far away for Gore. Hunter’s NFL draft position does not reflect his ability, and when he finally gets his chance at a starting gig, on what will likely be an improved Harbaugh offense, he has top-15 upside. He’s a great dynasty player to stash.

That’s it for this edition of Featured Pros. We hope you hardcore Keeper and Dynasty folks found this post helpful. I’d like to thank our three experts for sharing their time and recommendations.

Photo Credit: Link

Featured Pros: Who Will Break Through in 2011?

andrew — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 00:28:45 +0000

It happens every year: Several players vastly outperform expectations and prove to be the driving forces on fantasy teams who win their league titles. Call these guys “sleepers”, “breakout players” or whatever you want. We all know they’ll be popping up again this year. It’s just a matter of trying to peg a few of them in advance.

Fortunately, we’ve enlisted several top experts to give us their take on who might be the unexpected difference makers this season.

Let’s introduce our Featured Pros and hear what they have to say to our pressing questions.

Featured Pros

You know Ryan as the founder of the fantasy staple, Lester’s Legends. You may also recognize him from the success he’s had in our weekly accuracy contest. And yet, most impressively, he may not even be the best prognosticator in his own household!

Rob Shaw, host of Fourth and Fantasy and analyst for Bloomberg Sports, interprets the analysis and scientific rankings that is the basis for Decision Maker, the Bloomberg Sports innovative start-sit tool.

Jason knows a thing or two about identifying sleepers. His popular column, “Our Boys”, is dedicated to pegging fantasy gems before they hit the big time. Last year he used the space to tout Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles and Hakeem Nicks.

Walter operates one of the most popular and well respected sites in the industry. Whether you’re interested in fantasy, free agency, the draft, or the history of Emmitt Smith’s distinguished broadcasting career, Walter has you covered.

Q&A

Q1: These 12 RBs are being drafted as RB3s (ADP between #25 and #36 among RBs). Which ONE has the best chance of putting up top 12 RB numbers and why?

Cedric Benson (CIN)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE)
Beanie Wells (ARI)
Daniel Thomas (MIA)
Marshawn Lynch (SEA)
Fred Jackson (BUF)
Joseph Addai (IND)
Mike Tolbert (SD)
Tim Hightower (WAS)
Jonathan Stewart (CAR)
Reggie Bush (MIA)
Pierre Thomas (NO)

Answer: Beanie Wells (ARI)

Honestly I’m not sure any of this cast of characters has the makings of an RB1, but the one that sticks out in my mind as having the most potential is Beanie Wells. We know what Benson, Lynch, and Addai can do. New England is too crowded for the Law Firm. Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush will share with each other. Fred Jackson, J-Stew, Tolbert and PT will also share. Hightower is the lead guy, but Shanahan is nearly impossible to rely on. That brings us to Beanie. The door is wide open following Ryan Williams injury. With an improved passing game, things could open up in the ground game. Beanie is one of the few players in this group with unreached potential and little competition for carries.

Answer: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE)

The Bloomberg Sports Decision Maker likes BenJarvus Green-Ellis. While most fantasy pundits will avoid a running back coached by Bill Belichick, our focus is on the statistics. The numbers that breathe confidence in “The Law Firm” are the 13 total touchdowns and 623 rushing yards in the second half of last season. The touchdowns we believe are repeatable since the Patriots offense should once again reign as one of the league’s best with Tom Brady under center and Chad Ochocinco joining two rising tight ends in the receiving corps. The 623 second half yards tell the tale of a running back who was extremely efficient (4.6 yards per carry), when provided with additional carries. Despite the presence of Danny Woodhead and a couple of rookies added to the mix, we believe that Belichick understands that he has one of the league’s better running backs in his backfield.

Answer: Beanie Wells (ARI)
When looking at this list, the vast majority are heading into this season in tandem situations. NE seems to have four RBs, Miami is uncertain to who the feature back will be, and in New Orleans, there is a massive committee of capable runners. Washington has Mike Shanahan and that always means uncertainty at RB. Indy drafted a young runner to add to Addai and Brown, and Buffalo has C.J. Spiller waiting in the wings. That leaves us with Marshawn Lynch, Mike Tolbert, Jonathan Stewart and Beanie Wells. Tolbert and Stewart are going to fight for carries with Ryan Mathews and DeAngelo Williams, respectively, so I am looking at Wells or Lynch as the guys on this list to have the best chance. With that said, I don’t love either but if I had to choose I would choose Beanie Wells for 2 reasons: 1. Rookie Ryan Williams is lost for the year, so he is a better bet for more carries. And 2. With Kevin Kolb and Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals have a more dynamic offense.

Answer: Tim Hightower (WAS)

Tim Hightower has the best chance of posting top-12 RB numbers in this list. Hightower is the unquestioned starter in Washington, and he’s a perfect fit for Mike Shanahan’s blocking scheme. He also catches passes out of the backfield, so he’ll be on the field every single down. Some like Roy Helu, but he’s had issues with pass protection in training camp, and it’s highly doubtful Shanahan would trust Helu with this deficiency.

Q2: These 12 WRs are being drafted as WR3s (ADP between #25 and #36 among WRs). Which ONE has the best chance of being a top 12 WR for the season and why?

Mario Manningham (NYG)
Austin Collie (IND)
Kenny Britt (TEN)
Julio Jones (ATL)
Sidney Rice (SEA)
Pierre Garcon (IND)
Malcom Floyd (SD)
Plaxico Burress (NYJ)
Santana Moss (WAS)
A.J. Green (CIN)
Steve Smith (CAR)
Mike Sims-Walker (STL)

Answer: Kenny Britt (TEN)

Good list. In PPR leagues I think Mario Manningham stands a chance of picking up the slack for Steve Smith and putting up big numbers. Assuming Kenny Britt has a minimal suspension at best, he would be my choice. He has already shown that he can deliver the goods. The upgrade at quarterback (Matt Hasselbeck) should help. He has the ability to put up yardage and touchdowns. Plaxico could be an option as well, but I’m a little concerned with how he’ll hold up. Sure he looked good the other day, but it was only the preseason. Another nice option is MSW, who should put up big numbers with Sam Bradford slinging him the football.

Answer: Kenny Britt (TEN)

While Kenny Britt can’t outrun the law, the Bloomberg Sports Decision Maker believes that he will rack up greater fantasy value than most of his peers. While the 775 yards and nine touchdowns are only solid, and not spectacular from last season, you have to consider that Britt also missed a quarter of the season. This season Britt will have an upgrade at quarterback with Matt Hasselbeck moving to Music City. The only thing that can get in the way of Britt having a big season is if NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is able to suspend the young talent for his behavior during the lockout.

Answer: Sidney Rice (SEA)

Keeping with a process of elimination theme, let’s toss all but Manningham, Collie, Rice, and Floyd. Nothing against the others in this list, but they will not crack the top 12. Starting with Floyd, he has Philip Rivers throwing to him, while having Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson to compete with for targets. Philip Rivers has the potential to throw for 4500+ yards and 35+ touchdowns, and his WR2 (Floyd) will certainly benefit. Collie has a similar situation with Peyton Manning, but could be lost in the crowd with all of the Colts weapons. Manningham will have a vastly increased workload with the departures of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss. However, Hakeem Nicks is the top dog. Looking at Seattle’s corp. Sidney Rice has the best chance of being a team’s WR1. In standard scoring, Rice’s big-play, and red-zone scoring ability make him the safest bet on this list to exceed expectations. With the Seahawks likely playing from behind, junk fantasy points will be plentiful for Rice.

Answer: Austin Collie (IND)

I love several receivers in this list, but Austin Collie has the best chance to be a top-12 WR. Collie generated great numbers when he was healthy last year. The two concussions did him in, but he’s been medically cleared. If he can stay healthy, Collie will be a top-12 receiver.

Q3: There are several of “up and coming” QBs being drafted in the mid to late rounds. Which ONE has the best chance of breaking through as a top 8 QB and why?

Matthew Stafford (DET)
Sam Bradford (STL)
Kevin Kolb (ATL)
Colt McCoy (CLE)
Mark Sanchez (NYJ)

Answer: Matthew Stafford (DET)

Assuming he can stay healthy it’s Matthew Stafford. He has a big arm and some nice weapons, including one of the most talented receivers in the league in Calvin Johnson. Any time you have a player the caliber of Megatron, you’re in great shape. I like Sam Bradford as well, but he does not have as good of weapons.

Answer: Matthew Stafford (DET)

With talents such as Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew in the receiving corp for the Detroit Lions, can you imagine the impact they would have if they had an elite quarterback throwing them the ball? That’s where Matthew Stafford comes in. The first pick of the 2009 draft has all the talent in the world and has the arm to take full advantage of the young talent. Considering the backfield is a little thin due to injuries, Stafford will be depended upon to move the ball in the air. In just three games last season Stafford showed great promise. We’re banking on the great upside to be reached this season with Stafford hoping to put his injuries behind him.

Answer: Matthew Stafford (DET)

If Sam Bradford had the weapons Matthew Stafford has, I’d go with the Ram. However, a healthy Stafford simply has too many talented skill positioned players to not succeed. I know his health is an issue but I have a feeling things are looking up in the Motor City. I’d love to go with Kolb here, but we need a few weeks to see how the chemistry between him and Fitzgerald will be.