For those unaware of our process, we’ve painstakingly tracked the weekly player rankings of the industry’s top fantasy pundits. Using our PAY™ methodology, we scored over 2 million start/sit predictions from 67 experts. That field size is nearly double the expert pool of 2010 & 2009. It goes without saying, therefore, that this was an extremely competitive competition.

So what’s in it for the experts, you ask? The top performers will earn bragging rights, prestige, a little “bling”, and a ticket to our FantasyPros Invitational league. We’re also considering throwing in congratulatory handshakes from Jim Schwartz & Jim Harbaugh.

Without further ado, here are 2011’s top fantasy experts. You can view the full standings over at the accuracy section of our site.

Overall Accuracy Standings

Notes:

• Congratulations to Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports) for earning the title of 2011’s Most Accurate Expert. Pianowski narrowly (and we do mean narrowly) edged out John Paulsen (The Fantasy Shrink) for the crown. In fact, the accuracy scores of both experts were so close that you can’t even tell the difference in the standings! We had to extend the decimal points on the ratings to see that Pianowski’s PAY™ (63.711%) was literally a fraction better than Paulsen’s score (63.705%). The difference in scores is the virtual equivalent of choosing between LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice for your top fantasy RB. You’d be in great shape either way and that’s likely how things turned out if you followed either expert’s advice.

• As you might expect, Pianowski landed the top honor by delivering well rounded advice across the positions we track. Fantasy owners want recommendations at every position so our scoring rewards versatility. Pianowski’s picks ranked him in the top 15 among all experts at RB (#2), QB (#4), TE (#14), & WR (#15). He even threw in strong performances at Kicker (#5) and DST (#6) just for good measure. In doing so, he was the only expert to finish in the top 15 for all 6 major positions tracked.

• As the defending champ from last season, John Paulsen deserves a lot of credit for finishing right near the top of the standings once again. Similar to Pianowski, he was a top 15 performer at each of the 4 major positions we monitored: WR (#4), QB (#6), TE (#3), & RB (#15). Perhaps most impressively, Paulsen saved some of his best advice for when the stakes were highest. His week 16 accuracy rating (70.3%) was a personal best and vaulted him from 4^th in the standings to 2^nd overall.

• If we handed out an award for the competition’s top newcomer, it would undoubtedly go to Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball). Hanson was a fixture in the top 5 throughout the season and even led the contest heading into the final week. He also owns the distinction as being the only expert to eclipse the 70% PAY™ mark for a single position. Hanson’s #1 QB rating (70.3%) means that following his relevant advice would have netted owners over 70% of all available fantasy points. Simply put, if you needed QB advice in 2011, the ultimate source to go to was over at EDSFootball. That’s not to say that Hanson was a one-trick pony, however. He also earned a top 10 rating at both WR (#3) & RB (#8), demonstrating that he’s among the best of the best when it comes to fantasy prognostication.

•  One of the key takeaways we continue to have from these competitions is that there’s a definite skill involved in providing accurate fantasy advice. Consider this: Half of this season’s top 10 experts also finished in the top 10 last season. That’s pretty impressive considering that we added nearly 30 experts to the fold this year. Another 2 of this season’s top 10 finished right outside that mark last season (#11 & #12), so effectively 70% of the experts held onto their placement atop the leaderboard. The remaining 30% that joined the upper portion of the standings were new entrants to the competition. All and all, this indicates that there is less “luck” involved in fantasy prognostication than some may think.

Top Experts by Position

In addition to the overall results listed above, we also want to briefly highlight the top rated experts by position. Congratulations to the following experts for nailing down the best accuracy scores:

This officially wraps up 2011’s accuracy contest. Congratulations again to Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports) for coming out on top as the highest rated expert. Kudos also go out to the entire field of experts that participated. These experts are among the best the fantasy industry has to offer and the tight gap between the accuracy scores shows how highly competitive the contest is each season.

Lastly, thanks to everyone who followed the competition throughout the season. We appreciate your support and look forward to running the accuracy contest again next year. In the meantime, you can view the full standings both overall & by position to see how the entire field rated. Thanks!

 
You can also scratch your competitive itch by playing in our Start/Sit Challenge or Beat the Expert Championship. Both are FREE and we’re giving away a minimum of $1,500 this week. Get your entry in now since the games start on Saturday! Now onto this week’s headlines…

Wide Receivers:

A.J. Green is expected to start this Saturday against the Cardinals despite the shoulder injury he suffered during last week’s game:  According to CBSSports, Green, who leads all NFL rookies with 1,006 total receiving yards this season and is clearly the Bengals’ top receiving threat, should be considered a high-end No.2 fantasy WR for this week, as Arizona is permitting an average of 22.1 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers this season.

Anquan Boldin is out for the rest of this regular season with a knee injury:  According to Rotoworld, we should expect the Ravens to take an extremely run-heavy attack against the Browns this week, with Torrey Smith serving as the clear No.1 option on passing plays.  Boldin’s absence in the next two weeks could also mean more targets for Lee Evans, who will replace him in the starting lineup according to CBSSports.

Stevie Johnson is likely to be active for this Saturday’s game against the Broncos despite being limited in practice this week with a groin injury:  With at least 75 receiving yards in three of his past four games, Johnson should be considered a high-end WR2 this week against Denver’s 20th ranked pass defense according to Rotoworld.

Mario Manningham‘s status for this Saturday’s game against the Jets remains unclear due to his lingering knee injury:  Manningham has been held out of practice all week, and  Rotoworld believes he could end up as a true game-time decision.

Johnny Knox is out for the remainder of this season with a lower back injury sustained during last week’s game:  Earl Bennett, Roy Williams and Dane Sanzenbacher will finish out the year as the Bears’ top-three wideouts according to Rotoworld.  The Bears will face the Packers in Green Bay on Sunday Night Football this week.

Running Backs:

Chris Johnson is expected to be active this Saturday against the Jaguars despite an ankle injury:  Johnson was limited in practice this week, but as long as he does not experience additional soreness on Friday, Head Coach Mike Munchak expects Johnson to start on Saturday.  Coach Munchak also added that the backup Jamie Harper would be ready for 10-15 carries if needed according to CBSSports.

Cowboys are hopeful Felix Jones will be on the field this Saturday against the Eagles despite his hamstring injury:  According to CBSSports, while Eagles are a favorable matchup on paper, this injury means there is some risk to starting Jones, who should be considered a No.2 fantasy RB this week, if he’s active.  Also, Dallas is reportedly planning to promote Chauncey Washington from the practice squad, so Rotoworld notes that while Jones may end up starting the game against the Eagles on Saturday, Sammy Morris and Washington would likely carry the load if the Giants beat the Jets in the early game.

James Starks is expected to return to action on Sunday night against the Bears after missing the last two games with an ankle injury:  Splitting carries with Ryan Grant and often giving way to John Kuhn at the goal-line, Starks shouldn’t be considered more than a low-end flex play for the fantasy finals this week according to Rotoworld.

Quarterbacks:

Ben Roethlisberger has been ruled out for Saturday’s game due to his ankle injury:  Charlie Batch will make the start for the Steelers in Big Ben’s absence.

John Skelton is expected to start this Saturday against the Bengals while Kevin Kolb continues to recover from his most concussion:  Skelton should be considered a No.2 QB option this week against a Cincinnati team that is allowing 15.14 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season according to CBSSports.

Colt McCoy will miss his second straight game this Saturday against the Ravens with a concussion:  Seneca Wallace, who threw for 226 yards and a touchdown while filling in for the injured McCoy last week, will get another start this week.

Bears will start Josh McCown over Caleb Hanie on Sunday night against the Packers:  The Packers are yielding 19.4 fantasy points per week to opposing quarterbacks, but McCown remains just a desperation fantasy start according to CBSSports.

Tight Ends:

Anthony Fasano‘s status for this Saturday’s game against the Patriots remains uncertain due to a mild concussion:  Charles Clay would likely pick up snaps if Fasano can’t play this week according to Rotoworld.

Jake Ballard will likely sit out this Saturday’s game against the Jets with the knee injury suffered during last week’s game:  Bear Pascoe is expected to replace the injured Ballard in the starting lineup this week.

Scott Chandler is expected to return to action this Saturday against the Broncos after missing the last two games with an ankle sprain:  With Lee Smith out for the remainder of this season with an ankle injury suffered during last week’s game, the Bills could certainly use Chandler this week, but according to CBSSports, Chandler should be considered at best an injury-risk No.2 fantasy TE.

That wraps up our Roundup for this week.  Happy Holidays to everybody and good luck this weekend!

Photo Credits: 1, 2, & 3

RB

Top Experts: Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports) and Site Projections (numberFire)

Chris “Beanie” Wells (@ CIN)

Top 2: RB #13

The Field: RB #20

Steven Jackson (@ PIT)

Top 2: RB #19

The Field: RB #25

C.J. Spiller (vs. DEN)

Top 2: RB #18

The Field: RB #12

Beanie Wells has been rather pedestrian over the last 3 weeks. He’s faced tough opponents in Dallas, San Francisco, and Cleveland, but the Bengals also defend the run well. They give up only 3.7 yards per carry, yet they have also given up 6 touchdowns to running backs in the last 6 weeks. That could be why our top RB experts place Wells at RB #13 this week.

Steven Jackson draws a tough assignment in Pittsburgh. Kellen Clemens looked decent enough as the Rams QB last week, but there’s a good chance that Pittsburgh hones in on Jackson and forces Clemens to the air. Still, the top RB experts like Jackson more than most.

C.J. Spiller posted a monster game last week. His 167 total yards were more than he notched in his first 6 games…combined! Oh, and he also doubled his season TD total from 2 to 4. Our expert consensus rankings place Spiller just outside the top 10, but the most accurate RB experts temper their expectations a little bit—they have him at #18 on the week.

WR

Top Experts: Mike Woellert (FantasyFootball.com) and Site Rankings (FantasyFootballNerd)

Stevie Johnson (vs. DEN)

Top 2: WR #16

The Field: WR #23

Victor Cruz (@ NYJ)

Top 2: WR #19

The Field: WR #13

Stevie Johnson posted good numbers against Darrelle Revis and Cortland Finnegan, so he can do so against Champ Bailey too. In 3 out of the last 4 games, Denver has kept opposing WRs to under 100 combined yards. Okay, so Gronkowski and Hernandez did most of the damage last week, but its still an impressive stat. Regardless, our top WR experts like Johnson like week.

The experts don’t, however, like Victor Cruz as much at the Jets. Revis will likely split time between Nicks and Cruz, which is bad news for both of them.

QB

Top Experts: Gregg Rosenthal (Rotoworld) and Staff Composite (SI.com)

Philip Rivers (@ DET)

Top 2: QB #6

The Field: QB #9

Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. DEN)

Top 2: QB #21

The Field: QB #17

Philip Rivers has gotten his act together over the past several games. He has not thrown an interception since week 11, and he’s led the Chargers to three consecutive wins over Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Baltimore. Stafford and co. are likely to put up points against a disappointing Charger defense, so Rivers could be in for a big day if he and Stafford decide to duke it out in the air. Our top QB experts like Rivers as QB #6 this week.

The top rated experts aren’t so high on Ryan Fitzpatrick. It is a December home-game in Buffalo, so chances are the weather won’t exactly facilitate passing. Fitzpatrick’s last 2 games have not been encouraging either (2 TDs, 5 picks).

TE

Top Experts: Walter Cherepinsky (Walter Football) and Pat Fitzmaurice (ProFootballWeekly)

Jermichael Finley (vs. CHI)

Top 2: TE #7

The Field: TE #5

After Jermichael Finley received the most targets of any Packer last week, it might be tempting to dismiss his week 14 “zero for zero” and continue to rank him among the top tight ends. He has an elite QB, and the Jennings injury means there are likely to be more targets coming his way. Plus, the Bears rank 30^th in points allowed to tight ends, and Finley torched them for 85 yards and 3 TDs in week 3. However, our top TE experts slide him toward the bottom of the top 10 this week. If you’ve watched any Packers games lately, you’ve probably seen Finley drop a pass or two. Finley owners must be wondering what he could do if he would just catch the ball.

D/ST

Top Experts: Mike Krueger (FFToday) & Michael Beller (SI.com)

Oakland Raiders (@ KC)

Top 2: D/ST #13

The Field: D/ST #21

Jacksonville Jaguars (@ TEN)

Top 2: D/ST #15

The Field: D/ST #24

If you are scrounging for a defense to help you win your fantasy championship, our top D/ST experts might recommend Oakland or Jacksonville. Kansas City seemed capable enough with Kyle Orton at QB. If the Packers couldn’t record a single sack or turnover, it’s tough to imagine the Oakland unit giving them much trouble. Last week was Orton’s first real game as a Chief, so while the Packers didn’t know what the expect from Kansas City, Oakland has at least one game of film to study.

Jacksonville’s D/ST took a big step back last week. After posting a ridiculous 7 turnover, 2 touchdown game against Tampa Bay, they gave up 41 points to Atlanta while recording no sacks or turnovers. Tennessee doesn’t turn the ball over that much, but they also have the old, declining Matt Hasselback and the young, inexperienced Jake Locker at QB.

K

Top Experts: Dan McQuade (SI.com) and Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Sports)

Alex Henery (@ DAL) 

Top 2: K #11

The Field: K #17

Ryan Succop (vs. OAK)

Top 2: K #13

The Field: K #24

Michael Vick is back, and he brought the Philly offense with him. The Eagles dismantled the Jets last week to the tune of 45 points. Alex Henery isn’t known for his overwhelming accuracy or strong leg, but our top K experts think he’ll get some chances this week at Dallas.

The experts also like Ryan Succop a whopping 11 spots more than the field. Succop nailed 4 field goals in the Chiefs win over the Packers (thanks in part to some nice red zone stands by the Packers D). With Kyle Orton leading the charge, the Chiefs offense suddenly looks somewhat capable. Plus, the game time forecast for Kansas City predicts clear weather, which can be a big factor for kickers at this time of year.

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Best of luck to everyone battling it out this weekend for a championship. If you’re looking for an additional challenge, be sure to sign up for our (free) Beat the Expert contest. There’s a $1,000 prize pool at stake and anyone who beats this week’s experts will win an additional $10. Good luck!

Photo Credits: #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s take a look back at week 15’s most accurate experts. We’ll break down the top 10 experts (out of 74) to see who gave the best advice. You can also view the full list to see how the entire field rated.

Week 15 Leaderboard

*See how all 74 experts ranked for the week

Notes:

• Congrats to numberFire for producing the week’s most accurate projections. NF was on-target across the positions we track, with their best picks coming at RB (#1 rank) and TE (#3 rank). Their RB predictions were notable for outperforming the expert consensus on a trio of players that far exceeded expectations: C.J. Spiller, Reggie Bush & Ryan Mathews. Spiller, in particular, was the week’s #1 RB (167 yards, 2 TDs) and numberFire had him slotted 10 spots higher than the field of experts.

• Another set of projections that delivered in week 15 came courtesy of CBS Sports. CBS finished the week 2^nd overall on the strength of their predictions at QB (#2 rank), RB (#8 rank) and TE (#10 rank). At QB, they made the correct decision by slotting Drew Brees as the week’s top QB. That may sound like an obvious pick but it wasn’t an easy call given how well a certain QB in Green Bay has played this season. CBS also took an unpopular stance by placing Tony Romo as a top 3 QB, ahead of a number of top tier players including Cam Newton. That proved to be a wise decision as Romo turned in one of his best fantasy performances of the season (249 yards passing, 4 TDs).

• It stands to reason that one of the top WR experts from week 15 (Tommy Rowan – TOFantasySports) works for a site that pays homage to Terrell Owens. TO would be happy to know that Rowan gave plenty of attention to the week’s top studs. He specifically hit the mark by outranking the expert consensus for the top 5 fantasy performers. This includes expected studs such as Calvin Johnson (WR #1) & Roddy White (WR #2) as well as surprise players like Lance Moore (WR #28). Rowan also had one of the highest rankings (WR #12) for Julio Jones. Jones lived up to that lofty billing by posting top 10 fantasy numbers (91 yards, 1 TD) for the second week in a row.

• As a fixture in our accuracy contest for the past 2 seasons, Ryan Lester (Lester’s Legends) has had plenty of success in the competition. This past week, he came through with a well-rounded showing across many of the positions we track: WR (#8 rank), RB (#11 rank), TE (#9 rank). Besides pegging the typical top WRs – Calvin Johnson (WR #1) & Roddy White (WR #3) – Lester also had a good read on several overachievers. His ranking (WR #23) for Lance Moore was higher than all but one expert and he was one of only a few pundits that considered Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR #34) worthy of Flex status. Heyward-Bey ultimately had one of the best games of his career (155 yards, 1 TD). In addition to his WR picks, Lester was a believer in one of the top RB studs, Reggie Bush (RB #8). He also notably downgraded Adrian Peterson (RB #11) and that was the right call as AP’s role was limited in his return to action (just 10 carries).

That wraps up this week’s accuracy report. Check back next week as we unveil 2011’s most accurate fantasy football expert. There are several experts with a shot to win the top honor so a lot will be riding on their week 16 predictions.

If you’re eager to make your own predictions, be sure to enter this week’s Beat the Expert Contest. You’ll have the opportunity to go up against the best performers in the contest this season: Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Sports), Justin Sablich (NY Times) & Chris Wesseling (Rotoworld). There are $1,000 in prizes up for grabs as well as an extra $10 for everyone who beats all 3 experts. Prizes are courtesy of our sponsor, FanDuel. Good luck!

1. Their first names all begin with the letter “J”.
2. All have been relative non-factors for fantasy purposes this season.
3. To everyone’s surprise, each player produced at a top 5 fantasy level during week 16 of last season.

Obviously, we’re not saying #3 will happen again this year (we’ve seen enough of Josh Freeman to make such a claim). The point, however, is that someone will step up as an unexpected championship week stud.  It happens every season and you can bet that it’s likely to occur again.

For this week’s edition of Featured Pros, we’re calling on the industry’s top “out of the box” experts to give us their sleeper picks for championship week. These are the pundits who aren’t afraid to go against the grain and they frequently hit the mark when doing so. Simply put, if anyone is going to have a read on surprise performers, it’s most likely these experts. Let’s find out who they like to step it up with fantasy titles on the line…

Featured Pros

Brad Evans – (Yahoo! Sports)

Mike Clay – (Pro Football Focus)

Sigmund Bloom – (FootballGuys)

Patrick White – (Fantasy Sharks)

Kevin Roberts – (NFL Soup)

Q & A

Q: Several guys (Lance Moore, Donald Brown, Brent Celek, etc) stepped up above & beyond expectations in week 15. Name a trio of players (1 WR, 1 RB, & 1 TE) that are the most likely to put up surprise top tier numbers in week 16. Why do you like these players this week?

WR Sleepers

Brad Evans: Jabar Gaffney (vs. MIN) – Gaffney is the ‘Skins’ steadiest producer, particularly in PPR formats. His 6-85-0 line last week against the Giants marked the fourth time in his past five contests the wideout has recorded at least five catches. Most owners usually want nothing to do with anyone whose value is tied directly to Rex Grossman, but a matchup with Minnesota, ravaged by injuries and ineffectiveness, can put lipstick on the ugliest pig. The Vikes have allowed 8.3 yards per attempt on the season. And at least one WR has logged 10-plus points against them in four straight, including Lance Moore who spanked them for 5-91-2 in the Saints’ blowout win. Point blank: Cedric and Asher Allen couldn’t blanket a one-toed sloth. Gaffney, who is the 23rd-best wide receiver in per week output since Week 11, is a spectacular, WR2 play in Week 16.

Mike Clay: Roy Williams (@ GB) – I’m digging deep at the wide receiver position. With Johnny Knox now out for the season with a back injury, Roy Williams will step up as the Bears’ top option at wide receiver. Williams is the team’s active leader in snaps played by a wide receiver this season and, despite seeing only three targets, tied Earl Bennett for the team-lead with 51 snaps played this past Sunday. The quarterback situation is a mess (will it be Josh McCown or Caleb Hanie?), but the Bears are going to be forced into a pass-heavy attack while playing from behind against the Packers. Green Bay’s defense has been one of the most generous to opposing wide receivers this season and Williams will have plenty of opportunities to produce fantasy points.

Sigmund Bloom: Ben Obomanu (vs. SF) – With Big Mike Williams out, Obomanu should get close to starter snaps at home against the 49ers. The only way to really attack the Niners D is through the air, and Obomanu has proven chemistry with Tarvaris Jackson. Only recommended in very deep leagues, but has a chance to make some noise.

Patrick White: Titus Young (vs. SD) – San Diego’s pass defense is no joke but neither is Calvin Johnson. When the Chargers sit down and review tape this week they should take notice that Megatron needs additional coverage. With Calvin drawing safety attention, Titus Young will be able to fully utilize his biggest attribute: his burner speed. Don’t expect a ton of catches from Young but what he does pull in should go for huge chuncks of yardage and hopefully a home run score.

Kevin Roberts: Jonathan Baldwin (vs. OAK) – It didn’t happen in week 15 (one catch, 17 yards), but something tells me Kyle Orton under center means a much-improved Chiefs passing offense for the final two weeks. Baldwin is a huge target who has flashed great potential already, while his remaining two games offer up potentially huge games. He gets a weak Raiders defense in week 16.

RB Sleepers

Brad Evans: Kahlil Bell (@ GB) - “Jingle Bell Rock” could be the anthem for many championship seekers in PPR formats. Bell, the closest asset to Matt Forte the Bears currently have on roster, clearly outplayed Marion Barber last week. The coaching staff has supreme confidence in his balanced abilities, evident in the wide snap count disparity between he and Barber last week. This time around, he gets the rival Packers in Lambeau, the league’s most generous defense to receiving backs. Green Bay has allowed 6.5 receptions per game to RBs. In a contest the Bears may easily play from behind in, Bell could rack his second consecutive 100-total yard performance.

Mike Clay: LeGarrette Blount (@ CAR) - Starting Blount this week is going to be an extremely risky move when you consider that he saw only 13 snaps in Week 14. Still, as bad as the Buccaneers are playing, they should be able to compete with the Panthers. Actually hanging in the game will allow Tampa Bay to continue to run the ball, which means 15+ carries for Blount. He’s been a disappointment this season, but has still managed a respectable 4.5 yards-per-carry mark. I have him down for 94 total yards and a score on 18 touches. That qualifies him as a borderline Top-12 back this week.

Sigmund Bloom: Kevin Smith (vs. SD) – Smith actually had most of his burst and cut sharply with decisiveness – he just never really got the ball in space vs Oakland. Against San Diego in what should be another high-scoring game on the carpet in Detroit, Smith could be a very strong play as long as he doesn’t leave the game with an injury.

Patrick White: Lance Ball (@ BUF) – This all depends on how serious Willis McGahee’s hamstring tweak is. If McGahee misses time Ball makes for an interesting play against the same defense that Reggie Bush just carved up for 200 plus yards. Knowshon Moreno being sidelined for the season and the possibility of McGahee being either limited or out makes Ball worth watching during the week. If given the start, he should put up larger than expected numbers.

Kevin Roberts: DeAngelo Williams (vs. TB) – It seems whenever Williams has a dream matchup, he comes to life. He hasn’t been the most consistent fantasy back out there, but he’s still explosive and can get the job done with the right matchup. With a terrible Buccaneers run defense on the docket in week 16, this is another one of those weeks to confide in D-Will.

TE Sleepers

Brad Evans: Anthony Fasano (@ NE) – Miami’s warhorse, quite possibly the most disrespected tight end in Fantasyland, has been tough for defenses to saddle in recent weeks. The ninth-best TE in fake football since Week 11, he’s averaged a stout 6.2 points per week, an output better than marquee names Jermichael Finley and Brandon Pettigrew. This week gifted another generous matchup, he’s a sure-fire top-10 weapon at his position. The Pats have allowed just three TE touchdowns this year, but five oversized targets, including Fasano Week 1 (5-82-0), have totaled at least four catches and 65 yards in a game against them. In a contest that will surely present numerous red-zone opportunities for the ‘Fins, the Italian Stallion is definitely worth riding even in 10-team leagues. Giddy up.

Mike Clay: Kyle Rudolph (@ WAS) – For the first time in his short career, Kyle Rudolph led his team’s tight end unit in snaps on Sunday. Rudolph played one more snap than veteran and impending unrestricted free agent Visanthe Shiancoe, leading me to believe that we’re looking at a possible changing of the guard. Considering the team’s underwhelming group of wide receivers and their propensity for having to lean on the pass while playing from behind, Rudolph will generally be in a position for a handful of targets and the occasional score. Week 16 matches him up with the Redskins, who slowed the Giants’ passing attack this past week, but who have still been pretty generous to the tight end position this season. The rookie is far from a safe play, but has significant upside if he works as the team’s top tight end.

Sigmund Bloom: Jared Cook (vs. JAC) – Cook seemed to have something good going with Jake Locker in the hurry-up offense and we know the Jags are prone to giving up the big play through the air to physical talents like Cook.

Patrick White: Heath Miller (vs. STL) – As long as Roethlisberger is under center I’d put Miller down as a must start against the St. Louis Rams. Big Ben will be still be hobbled by his high ankle sprain but will need to continue to throw to keep the Rams defense honest. I’d expect a lot of high percentage short passes to keep Roethlisberger from getting reinjured before a playoff run. Being that the Rams don’t offer much of a pass rush, Miller should be allowed to run a lot of 5 yard routes frequently and give Ben a large option over the middle of the field.

Kevin Roberts: Vernon Davis (@ SEA) – There’s no denying Davis’ weak numbers the past three weeks and overall the past two months (*editor’s note: this was written prior to the MNF game). But I don’t buy it happening forever. The 49ers take on the Seahawks in week 16, with the best method of beating them being through the air. Davis was OK against them in the season opener, but I think he has much more success this time around.

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That wraps up this week’s edition of Featured Pros’ advice. Thanks to the Pros for stopping by to share their insight. Be sure to check out the experts’ respective sites for additional analysis.

Photo Credits: #1, #2, #3

Wide Receivers

Greg Jennings is expected to miss 2-3 weeks with a knee sprain suffered during last week’s game:  James Jones will likely start in place of the injured Jennings.  According to Christopher Harris of ESPN.com, because Jones can sometimes have maddening hands and he isn’t the open-field runner Jennings is, he’s not a straight-up replacement for Jennings.  Harris views Jordy Nelson as the top dog in the Packers’ offense now and believes Jones will fight with Donald Driver for targets after that.

Deion Branch is listed as questionable for this Sunday’s game against the Broncos with a groin injury:  Branch was limited in practice all week, and according to CBSSports, he has been so inconsistent with his play that there is a lot of risk to starting him even if he is active this week.

Andre Johnson will miss his second straight game this Sunday against the Panthers with a hamstring injury:  Jacoby Jones will get another start this week in place of the injured Johnson.  According to Rotoworld, the Texans are likely to go extremely run-heavy against Carolina’s vulnerable rush defense, leaving Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter as low-upside fantasy WR3/Flex options.

Denarius Moore is listed as questionable with a foot injury but likely to be active for this Sunday’s game against the Lions:  With Jacoby Ford already ruled out for another game, Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey will likely be the Raiders’ starting wideouts this week, with Chaz Schilens operating as the No.3.  According to Rotoworld, if any Raiders wide receiver is likely to produce this week, it is Moore.

Running Backs

Adrian Peterson is expected to return to action this Sunday against the Saints after missing the last three games with an ankle injury:  According to CBSSports, Peterson has a favorable matchup this week against a New Orleans defense that is yielding 97.2 rushing yards and 17.3 fantasy points per week to opposing running backs.

The Cowboys placed DeMarco Murray on season-ending injured reserve with a broken right ankle:  Felix Jones, who carried the ball 16 times for 106 yards while filling in for the injured Murray last week, is expected to continue to assume Murray’s role as the workhorse back in the Cowboys’ offense according to Rotoworld.  With Jones as the only healthy tailback on the roster, Dallas also signed Sammy Morris earlier this week as well.

James Starks is listed as questionable for this Sunday’s game against the Chiefs after missing last week’s game with an ankle injury:  Starks’ return would throw a wrench into Ryan Grant‘s start-ability in fantasy leagues, but according to CBSSports, Grant is still the better Packers RB to start in fantasy, as Starks hasn’t finished the last two games he has played because of his ankle issues.

Kevin Smith is listed as questionable but is expected to be active for this Sunday’s game against the Raiders:  If Smith is able to go this week, he would have a favorable matchup against an Oakland defense that is yielding 111.1 rushing yards, 43.8 receiving yards and 21.2 fantasy points per week to opposing running backs according to CBSSports.

Mark Ingram will miss his second straight game this Sunday against the Vikings with a turf toe injury:  According to Rotoworld, Chris Ivory should be in line for 10-15 touches in the open-field power-back role this week.  Rotoworld also notes that Darren Sproles has usually led the Saints’ backfield in total yardage while Pierre Thomas has gotten most of the opportunities inside opposing ten-yard lines when Ingram misses games.

Quarterbacks

Ben Roethlisberger’s status for the Monday night game against the 49ers still remains up in the air due to his ankle injury:  Charlie Batch would start for the Steelers if Roethlisberger can’t play this week.

Matt Moore is listed as questionable with head and neck injuries but is likely to start this Sunday’s game against the Bills:  J.P. Losman, who took the reps with the first team during practice this week, would start for the Dolphins if Moore sits out this week.

Matt Hasselbeck is listed as questionable with a mild calf strain but is expected to start against the Colts:  Jake Locker would start if Hasselbeck suffers a setback and is unable to go this week.  According to Rotoworld, we should expect a run-heavy mindset from the Titans, featuring Chris Johnson against the Colts’ 30th-ranked rush defense on Sunday.

Colt McCoy has been ruled out for this Sunday’s game against the Cardinals with a concussion suffered during last week’s game:  Seneca Wallace will start at quarterback for the Browns this week in place of the injured McCoy.

Kyle Orton will be the Chiefs’ starting quarterback this Sunday against the Packers.

Tight Ends

Scott Chandler will miss his second straight game this Sunday against the Dolphins with an ankle sprain:  For the second straight week, Lee Smith (no, not that Lee Smith) and Mike Caussin will benefit with extra playing time in Chandler’s absence according to CBSSports.

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That does it for us this week.  Happy holidays to everybody and good luck this weekend!

RB

Top Experts: Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports) and Sablich Brothers (The New York Times)

Marion Barber (vs. SEA) 

Top 2: RB #16

The Field: RB #21

Ben Tate (vs. CAR)

Top 2: RB #23

The Field: RB #30

Steven Jackson (vs. CIN)

Top 2: RB #20

The Field: RB #16

Everyone remembers Marion Barber’s blunder last week in Denver, but he still posted 108 rushing yards, 32 receiving yards, and a score. Seattle ranks 11^th in rushing defense and 4^th in yards allowed per rush, but Barber is still the best option on this offense and should continue to get a heavy workload. Our top RB experts like him more than the field and consider him a solid RB2 this week.

Ben Tate collected 67 rushing yards on just 8 carries last week, and he draws a tasty matchup at home against the Panthers. Our top RB experts like him significantly more than the field this week. When Houston plays against teams ranked in the bottom 10 in rushing defense, Tate produces. Against Indianapolis, he posted 24 carries for 116 yards and a score (although Foster was out that game). Against Cleveland, he put up 12 carries for 115 yards and a score. Against Tampa Bay, he finished with 13 carries for 63 yards and a score. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a similar result against Carolina.

After disappointing for 3 straight weeks, Steven Jackson finally got it going again on Monday night in Seattle. However, our most accurate RB experts aren’t too excited about him this week against the Bengals. The return of Sam Bradford doesn’t hurt, but Cincinnati has been tough to run against all season long, and they just held Arian Foster to 44 rushing yards last week.

WR

Top Experts: Site Rankings (FantasyFootballNerd) and Mike Woellert (FantasyFootball.com)

Santana Moss (@ NYG)

Top 2: WR #16

The Field: WR #21

Demaryius Thomas (vs. NE)

Top 2: WR #24

The Field: WR #29

Santana Moss received 11 targets against New England. He only managed 3 completions, but that was enough for 85 yards and a TD. Ok, so the Patriots do allow the most fantasy points to WRs this season, but the Giants are a close 2^nd. The Giants score a lot of points, and give up a lot of points, which is the perfect recipe for opposing WRs. Just look at the scores from their last 3 games: 24-49, 35-38, and 37-34. Grossman should be airing it out on a regular basis to keep pace with Eli, and Moss only stands to benefit. Our top WR experts place Moss 5 spots ahead of the field at 16^th, which leaves him in front of Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, and Laurent Robinson.

They also have Demaryius Thomas 5 spots ahead of the pack. With 222 yards and 3 TDs in the last 2 games, Thomas appears to have eclipsed Eric Decker as Tebow’s favorite target. On paper, this is the most favorable matchup Tebow and his receivers have faced all year.

QB

Top Experts: Gregg Rosenthal (Rotoworld) and Staff Composite (SI.com)

Joe Flacco (@ SD) 

Top 2: QB #13

The Field: QB #16

Joe Flacco really hasn’t had to do much over the last 2 weeks. In those 2 games, Ray Rice combined for 307 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. However, Cleveland and Indianapolis aren’t exactly putting up points this year. With the Chargers finally starting to click on offense (they scored 37 and 38 points in the last 2 weeks), Flacco could be in store for a larger role this week. Our top QB experts like him at QB #13 this week, ahead of Andy Dalton and Rex Grossman.

TE

Top Experts: Pat Fitzmaurice (ProFootballWeekly) and Walter Cherepinsky (Walter Football)

Jermaine Gresham (@ STL) 

Top 2: TE #11

The Field: TE #14

Kellen Winslow (vs. DAL)

Top 2: TE #16

The Field: TE #11

The Rams have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, but that’s not stopping the top TE experts from ranking Jermaine Gresham 3 spots ahead of the field at TE #11. Digging a little deeper, we find that the Rams have also avoided the Patriots and Chargers, and they held Jimmy Graham to just 39 yards in that huge upset victory in week 8. They may be more vulnerable to tight ends than the stats suggest.

After a mid-season surge, Kellen Winslow has been mediocre over the last few weeks. Tampa Bay will likely be throwing a lot to keep up with Dallas, but our top TE experts all but disregard Winslow this week as TE #16.

D/ST

Top Experts: Eric Mack (SI.com) and Michael Beller (SI.com)

New York Giants (vs. WAS)

Top 2: D/ST #7

The Field: D/ST #15

Green Bay Packers (@ KC)

Top 2: D/ST #9

The Field: D/ST #1

The top experts continue to rank the Giants defense far ahead of the field. You don’t expect the Giants to shut anyone out, but you do expect them to get sacks and turnovers. Since Grossman got the starting gig back in week 10, he has committed 2 or more turnovers in all 5 games.

These days, it’s hard to imagine a more favorable matchup for a defense than Kansas City. Green Bay is the lucky winner this week, but while the field consensus rankings list Green Bay 1^st, our top D/ST experts have them 9^th. On the one hand, Palko has been taking better care of the ball the past 2 games (no turnovers against Chicago, only 1 against the Jets), but on the other hand, he is still Tyler Palko.

K

Top Experts: Staff Composite & Dan McQuade (SI.com)

Mike Nugent (@ STL)

Top 2: K #5

The Field: K #12

Jason Hanson (@ OAK)

Top 2: K #20

The Field: K #8

Our top K experts give the green light with Mike Nugent this week. He kicked 4 field goals against a very good Texans defense last week, and the Rams have allowed 3 or more field goals to each opponent for 3 weeks straight.

The most accurate K experts aren’t quite as high on Jason Hanson. Oakland has allowed double digit fantasy points to kickers in 3 straight weeks, so it’s a bit surprising that our K experts have him at 20^th, especially against a poor defense like Oakland.

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I’ll be back next week with another breakdown of the players the top experts like and dislike. In the meantime, be sure to sign up for our (free) Beat the Expert contest vs. the FantasyPros Staff. There’s a $1,000 prize pool at stake and anyone who beats our score will win an additional $5. Good luck!

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