Taking his talents (& hat) to South Beach?

If you’re starving for some NFL action that doesn’t involve the words “bounty scandal”, “wiretapping” or “Tim Tebow”, you’re surely amped up for this year’s draft. The draft is a time of eternal hope for fans, the achievement of a lifelong dream for players, a proud moment for families and friends of those drafted, AND an opportunity for Chris Berman to step in and reveal each pick before Commissioner Goodell hits the podium. In short, there’s a little something for everyone during this tremendous event.

To celebrate the occasion, we’re holding our first ever NFL Draft Contest. The contest will test your knowledge at predicting this year’s draft outcomes. All you have to do is answer 10 straightforward multiple choice questions (plus a tie breaker). The 50 entries with the highest scores will split a $500 prize pool courtesy of our sponsor, DraftDay.

Here’s a sample of one of the questions that’s being asked:

True/False: At least one TE will be selected in the first round of the Draft.

A)     True

B)     False

Easy enough, right? To enter the contest, simply “Like” us on Facebook and you’ll gain access to the competition and the opportunity to win some free money:  Enter the NFL Draft Contest >>

Best of luck to everyone participating in the competition. Here’s hoping your favorite teams fare well with their draft decisions too!

Photo Source

Of course, you don’t want to overreact to a limited sample of games. Some of your league members might, however, and that can be used to your advantage. Whether it’s by unloading overachievers or getting a bargain price on slumping players, opportunities exist.

With this in mind, we asked several fantasy experts to give us their top early-season “buy low” & “sell high” players. Here’s who the experts picked…

Q1: Give us one player off to strong start that you would consider selling high if the right deal came along.

Matt Gelfand – Baseball HQ

Austin Jackson (.405 AVE, 2 HR, 4 RBI): This one hurts a little bit, because I’m a sucker for runs and I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t eclipse 100 in that loaded Tigers lineup, but Jackson’s current average may fool some owners into believing he’s transformed himself into a .300 hitter. Au contraire. His meddling contact rate remains the same, only his balls have been finding gaps (.565 BABIP). It’s also slightly disconcerting that he’s never been able to eclipse 30 steals despite his plus speed. Shop Jackson around before his average regresses, and you may be able to land another run-accumulator with slightly more sustainable skills (Think: Elvis Andrus).

R.J. White – Fantasy Baseball Cafe

David Freese (.406 AVE, 3 HR, 11 RBI): I’ll assume your league isn’t filled with n00bs willing to overpay for Derek Jeter or Barry Zito and focus on a guy everyone loves: David Freese. The STL 3B parlayed a strong 2nd half into an unforgettable postseason run before starting this year with an average over .400 as of Monday and three HRs. I’m not predicting a big dropoff by any means, but I do think you can secure a top-50 player in a deal while giving up a guy you drafted in the 100s a few weeks ago.

Robert Bishop – Fake Teams

Mark Trumbo (.375 AVE, 2 HR, 3 RBI): In my mind, a player is not a legitimate sell high candidate if there’s little track record. Fantasy owners are going to be more skeptical of breakout seasons from guys they haven’t heard of before. I could try to sell my leaguemates on Matt Carpenter, but most of them won’t be buying, and odds are he was on the waiver wire until a few days ago anyway. That’s why I’m backing Mark Trumbo. He finished second in ROY voting last year and hit 29 home runs. He’s already got 2 this year, and he’s hitting .375/.474/.750 on the young year. Mike Scioscia has to find him playing time, right? Well, maybe not. His glove is predictably playing poorly at the hot corner, and we all know how Mike Napoli’s defensive reputation worked for him. Furthermore, Trumbo isn’t going to be maintaining a HR/FB% of 40 or a BB/K of 1.50 (last year: 0.21, never higher than 0.46 in the minors).

Muntradamus – Beast Dome

David Freese (.406 AVE, 3 HR, 11 RBI): Yes, it is entirely possible that Freese is building off of his epic 5 HR, 21 RBI postseason that eventually led the Cardinals to be World Series champions. But what is less possible is Freese hitting 30 HRs and 100 RBIs, when his career high was 10 HRs last season in 97 games. That would put him on pace for less than 17 HRs in a full season.

Right now you can convince owners around your fantasy leagues otherwise, and you could get a substantial upgrade such as Ryan Zimmerman or possibly Brett Lawrie. Either way, this is the time to sell high on Freese where 25+ HRs would be considered an ELITE season for him.

Q2: Name one struggling player that you think represents a good “buy low” opportunity.

Matt Gelfand – Baseball HQ

Buster Posey (.321 AVE, 1 HR, 3 RBI): Posey’s engine just needs a little revving. Others view his mundane start as a sign that he won’t return to his pre-horrific-fibula-injury form. Play up that angle. The name of the game with Posey is patience. His core skills remain intact, and once he shakes off the rust (and the shingles), you’ll be in line for a profit in the second half.

R.J. White – Fantasy Baseball Cafe

Yu Darvish (1-0, 4.76 ERA, 2.21 WHIP): Anybody that gives up 17 hits and eight walks over two starts has definitely earned the title “struggling,” and that’s where we are with Yu Darvish. When you consider that no one really knew what to make of him coming over from Japan, there’s an opportunity to buy extremely low if your Yu owner is panicking. While he’s not going to win a Cy Young in his first year, I’m comfortable projecting him with 15 wins, an ERA under 4.00 and more than 160 Ks this year. If you can get that line dirt cheap, do so.

Robert Bishop – Fake Teams

Dan Haren (0-1, 6.97 ERA, 2.13 WHIP): Before the season started I had Dan Haren finishing with better stats than teammate Jered Weaver, and they’re both making me look very foolish right now. It’s early, though, and Dan Haren should not only bounce back, but bounce back to continue to post elite numbers. His K/BB is an insane 6.00 right now, with the swinging strike and first strike numbers to back it up. What’s killing him right now is BABIP, which stands at an unsustainable .486. The end result is an ERA that’s over twice as much as his xFIP. Dan Haren will be fine.

Muntradamus – Beast Dome

Mark Teixeira. (.250 AVE, 0 HR, 3 RBI): Right now the slugger is in the midst of “another” early season slump. You notice I put quotes around “another.” Take a look at how Teixeira has finished off all of his seasons despite a slow start, or a hot start. As you can see, Tex can still have a great season despite starting out 2012 slow. He will be batting in the heart of a Yankee lineup that can easily be the best offense in baseball, and now is a great time to buy extremely low on the 32 year old Yankee slugger.

Q3: If you had to pick one early surprise player that you feel will maintain a high level throughout the season, who would that player be?

Matt Gelfand – Baseball HQ

Chris Young (.405 AVE, 5 HR, 13 RBI): The tipping point for Young to be viewed as an upper-echelon talent has always been his batting average – and for good reason – he’s never batted above .260 in his six MLB seasons. Yet, the toolsy outfielder has exploded out of the gate this year, and has altered his hitting mechanics to produce a more compact swing. His approach has also matured. His current 15 percent walk rate and 12.5 percent K-rate are both career bests. At age 28, he seems primed to put it all together. Young has a 30/30 ceiling, and could end up being the player we all thought B.J. Upton would become.

R.J. White – Fantasy Baseball Cafe

Matt Wieters (.344 AVE, 4 HR, 9 RBI): Wieters was once the Bryce Harper of fantasy baseball, but once reality set in, owners were abandoning him by and large. He’s given notice that 2012 will be his breakout year, hitting .344 with 4 HRs in nine games. A 4/7 K/BB ratio reveals he’s showing plenty of patience, and he has a very real shot at finishing as the top ranked catcher and being drafted in the top 25 in 2013.

Jordan Schafer (.237 AVE, 5 SB): Schafer is another choice. He’s finally healthy and leading off for a mostly unexciting Houston squad. However, he’s another guy patiently drawing walks this season, and he already has 5 SBs. Could he make a run at 50? I think so.

Robert Bishop – Fake Teams

Danny Duffy (1-1, 2.13 ERA, 1.03 WHIP): Duffy is not going to leave 98% of runners on base like he has so far, but a look at his PitchFX suggests that he may be able to keep striking guys out at an elite rate. All of his pitches have more velocity, and his secondary pitches remain as nasty as ever. He’ll want to induce more ground balls, but those will come when people start connecting with his stuff that lands outside the zone (Due to early season SSS noise, his O-Contact% is just 40%). I don’t expect him to continue to post a 2.13 ERA, or even a 3.12 (xFIP), but sub-4 doesn’t seem out of the question. At the very least, he should outperform his FantasyPros ECR of 134.

Muntradamus – Beast Dome

Andre Ethier (.289 AVE, 3 HR, 15 RBI): Ethier is in a contract year, which usually results in a player’s bat finding more juice than usual. Last season, Andre disappointed in 135 games with 11 HRs and 62 RBI, despite his 30 game hitting streak early in the season. The low production had mostly to do with a knee injury that had to get cleaned up, and was bothering him for much of the year. This season, he is completely healthy and red hot as he has already matched all of last season’s April totals in the HR/RBI department. It also helps that he is batting cleanup behind the best player in baseball right now, Matt Kemp.

Between Dee Gordon being able to get in scoring position every time he is on base, and Matt Kemp being in scoring position at least once a game, Ethier should have plenty of opportunities to possibly surpass his career year where he hit: 31 HRs, 106 RBIs with a .271 Average. I would hold out for him being able to match those totals.

—

That wraps up this edition of Featured Pros’ advice. Thanks to the Pros for chiming in with their opinions. Please visit each expert’s site and follow them on Twitter for additional insight to help you win your leagues.

Speaking of winning big, be sure to check out the latest MLB Freeroll contest  we’re running with FanDuel. There’s $500 in cash prizes at stake and, as the name implies, entry is completely free. Best of luck!

Photo Credit

Worth the "big" risk?

With the start of the baseball season just one week away, there’s a good chance you’re prepping for an upcoming fantasy draft. Of course, why else would you be reading a fantasy baseball article with ‘Draft Tips’ in the subject?

Fortunately, you’ve come to the right place for some draft advice. To help out, we’ve rounded up several top fantasy experts and asked them to share their insight. The Featured Pros will hand out draft day tips along with their picks for risky players to target & avoid.

Read on to see what the Pros have to say…

Q1: Is there a high risk/high reward player you’re targeting as someone who will come through big this season?

Eno Sarris – FanGraphs

Brett Lawrie (TOR): He has power and speed. He doesn’t strike out too much. He plays a premium position. People like to talk about his age and the fact that he didn’t show as much power in the Brewer system, but even if he showed league average power, he’d basically be a young David Wright. A .280 average, 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases seem like a conservative estimate for a full season from the young Blue Jays first baseman, and he’s going in the fourth round in many drafts. That’s tasty.

Joel Beall – Fox Sports

Josh Johnson (MIA):  Man’s been brittle in the past, and early reports paint the Marlins’ new park as hitter friendly. Yet when healthy, few are better on the mound than the Miami ace. With an improved offense at his side, could see a nice bump in the “W” column.

Josh Shepardson – The Hardball Times

Matt Wieters (BAL): Wieters is a player I’m targeting heavily this year. Many believe it is risky to pay a premium for a catcher given the wear and tear they suffer in the field. Wieters has the added risk of a short track record of big league success, and only modest success at that. He has shown growth throughout his big league career, reducing his strikeout rate each of the last two years, and increasing his power as measured by isolated slugging (ISO) in the same time span. After struggling as a switch hitter versus left-handed pitching in 2009 and 2010, Wieters crushed the ball against southpaws in 2011. His numbers against right-handed pitching went the wrong way last year, but he has already displayed the ability to hit righties. I expect 2012 to be the season he puts it together hitting both left-handed, and right-handed pitching hard. A bit more luck on the balls he hits in play, and Wieters has the makings of a 25 plus home run hitter with an average north of .280. That would be elite production from a position that’s not noted for its offense.

Zach Greubel – Win My Fantasy League

Stephen Strasburg (WAS): I see Strasburg as a high risk/high reward player that will pay off this season. He’s coming off Tommy John surgery which, obviously, is the risk and will reportedly be held to around 160 innings this season. However, in the 92 innings he has pitched in his short career so far he has struck out 116 batters. Even if he does only pitch 160 innings, that’ still over 200 strikeouts.

Jon Connolly – Fantasy Baseball Champ

Hanley Ramirez (MIA):  You don’t have to be a fantasy expert to know he had an awful 2011. You also don’t have to be an expert to know a BABIP 50 points below career average can result in a career worst season. Just last year, Ramirez was a consensus top 3 pick. But now, after a few unlucky months, he’s ranked 20th overall here at FantasyPros and similarly on other sites. He is still an elite talent at a premium position, and we should almost certainly see him return to near career norm levels in 2012. You should be able to draft him in the second round and get first round value out of him.

Tim Young – MLB Soup

Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS): Ellsbury put together a monster season in 2011, one that he probably won’t repeat in 2012. However, Outfield is a relatively scarce position, and even if he regresses, Ellsbury is a tremendous talent. Even if his HR totals are down to the high teens or low twenties, you’re still getting a player who fills every single category. He’s a second round pick, and he’s definitely worth it.

Brien Bonneville – The Fake Baseball

Dan Uggla (ATL): In 2011, Uggla was going in the second round of most fantasy drafts but after a disappointing season he is the 49th overall ranked player on Fantasypros.com’s 2012 ranks. Last year, Uggla began his first season with a dramatic first half slump and batted .174 with 15 HR over the first three months. Though too little too late to make a huge difference in most of his offensive numbers, he was able to right the ship and went off for a career-high 36 home runs and even put together a nice 33-game hitting streak.

His first half of 2011, was an anomaly – just a bad slump for a guy who moved to a new city with high expectations. He’s not a stud anymore but he’s certainly a good value, with good power, in the late 4th early 5th rounds. If you miss out on Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler with your first 3-4 picks, you can do a lot worse in filling a shallow 2B slot.

Q2: On the flip side, is there a high risk/high reward player that you would avoid investing a significant draft pick on?

Eno Sarris – FanGraphs

Matt Holliday (STL): He no longer has any stolen base speed, and in non-OBP leagues, he’s a pretty average with a mediocre home run total, and good runs and RBI numbers — all of this adds up to a decent player, but not an elite one. Don’t spend on him like he’s a second-rounder, or elite talent, just pick him up if he drops to the third, or costs closer to $20. The team around him can help, but he’s older, more likely to hit the DL this year, and doesn’t steal bases any more.

Joel Beall – Fox Sports

Hanley Ramirez (MIA): For a guy that’s burned owners the past two seasons, Hanley Ramirez is sure getting a lot of love in early drafts. I understand the lack of depth at the 3B/SS positions, and perhaps he reverts back to his 2009 performance. Plus, I dig the “El Nino” nickname, which is always a plus. Alas, I’m looking to construct a strong foundation with my early-round selections, a sentiment that Han-Ram fails to provide. Sometimes, the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze.

Josh Shepardson – The Hardball Times

Josh Johnson (MIA): Johnson is the high risk/high reward player I will be passing on in drafts this year. He was lights out last year when healthy. Unfortunately, he wasn’t healthy much of last year and durability has been a constant issue for Johnson. He has bested 200 innings pitched just one time in his career that dates back to his first full season in the big leagues in 2006. He’s missed time due to forearm, elbow and shoulder injuries, and simply isn’t worth the risk. Let him cause someone else headaches, and move on to one of the many other talented pitching options available.

Zach Greubel – Win My Fantasy League

Justin Morneau (MIN): He is a high risk/high reward guy I’d stay away from. The risk is just too high. A raindrop could fall on his head and he’d get a concussion. There are plenty of safer and better options out there.

Jon Connolly – Fantasy Baseball Champ

David Wright (NYM): He could be the best or worst choice you make in the draft. But more likely he’ll be a worse choice than say, Pablo Sandoval. Wright’s increasing K rate, unstable power, and decreasing OBP are all cause for worry. He is still a very good 3rd baseman, but he is likely to be drafted above what his production will warrant this year. Bottom line, there is too much downside and too little upside to use a top pick on him.

Tim Young – MLB Soup

David Wright (NYM): In 2008, David Wright was hitting .325, knocking 30 HR, stealing 30 bases, and accumulating well over 100 Runs and RBIs. However, 4 years have gone by, along with his health, power, speed, and Jose Reyes. He still has the potential to be a star player, but he’s not worth a 3rd round pick. I’d much rather wait a round or two and draft Zimmerman, Sandoval, Lawrie, or Youkilis.

Brien Bonneville – The Fake Baseball

David Wright (NYM): Leagues are never won by the first three picks you make but they can certainly be lost. With my first three picks in any fake baseball draft, safety is the key. I’m avoiding David Wright like he has the plague. His injuries seem to be here for good. He’s averaged nearly 30 missed games in each of the last three years and has put up extremely disappointing numbers during two of those seasons. In December, I was optimistic that Wright would be healthy and ripe for a bounce-back year. Fast forward to today: he has yet to play in a game this spring, is receiving cortisone injections and may not be ready to start the season. Even if fully healthy, I just don’t see how the last Met standing can replicate his old numbers in a lineup that just lost the NL Batting Champ, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran. How he’s still being drafted in the late second round of most fantasy drafts is beyond me.

Go ahead grab him in the second round but I’ve seen that movie before and it doesn’t end well. If you miss out on the elite 3B (Jose Bautista, Evan Longoria and soon-to-be-eligible Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez), skip David Wright and wait another round or two to grab other guys in the next tier.

Q3: If you could give folks 1 strategy tip heading into their drafts, what piece of advice would you offer?

A common theme: "Wait on Pitching"

Eno Sarris – FanGraphs

Wait on pitchers. Pitchers are more likely to hit the Disabled List than hitters and they stay longer once they hit. The average starting pitcher is 39% likely to hit the DL this year! Also, while you have to get a ‘shortstop’ and a ‘first baseman,’ most leagues allow you to just find nine ‘pitchers.’ This general bucket means there will be more pitchers left at the end of the draft than second baseman, for example. Of course there are tiers in the pitcher ranks, too, so make sure you get a couple guys from the end of the first tier — your Yovani Gallardos and Dan Harens work — but don’t take them too early. Pick Tim Lincecum the year he goes kaput and your draft results will hurt to look at.

Joel Beall – Fox Sports

Pitching can be found. The depth of formidable fantasy arms for the 2012 campaign is astonishing. Don’t get bullied into snagging a starter early, as solid contributors can be attained in the later rounds.

Josh Shepardson – The Hardball Times

If I could give one piece of advice to fantasy gamers, it would be to go into the draft with a plan, but adjust accordingly to the draft atmosphere. Regardless of whether it is a snake draft, or an auction, preparation is key. That said, every draft has its own unique feel. Being able to adjust to quirks and trends that present themselves during the draft is key. Do owners seem to be willing to pay for youth and upside without regard for bust potential?  If so, it may prove worthwhile to select your upside gambles later in the draft, and bank on established veteran production early. No two drafts are the same, and finding undervalued commodities in any draft can be the difference between being an also ran, and a champion.

Zach Greubel – Win My Fantasy League

Don’t try to over-analyze or over-think during a draft. I like to draft players based on consistency, especially when I start over-analyzing a situation. If you have a choice between a player like Eric Hosmer or Freddie Freeman and a player like Paul Konerko, don’t be afraid to go with Konerko. Hosmer and Freeman may seem more appealing because of their upside but Konerko has shown that he can succeed season after season.

Jon Connolly – Fantasy Baseball Champ

Plan. Plan. Plan, that’s a capital P-LAN your draft ahead of time. Drafting without a plan is like walking blindfolded into a minefield; you end up with Yuniesky Betancourt and Derrek Lee in your lineup. Don’t be the guy starting Yuniesky Betancourt and Derrek Lee. Plan ahead. Target 3 or so guys you want at each position and tier and know their ADP. Also, keep track of your sleepers and lotto tickets, but don’t be too eager for them. They’re called sleepers for a reason, after all.

Tim Young – MLB Soup

Fantasy value is driven by scarcity. Everything is relative. Take the Shortstop position, for instance. Since there isn’t much of a sure-bet beyond Tulowitzki, his value skyrockets. The reason he’s a great 1st round pick is that the drop-off from Tulowitzki to the next best shortstop, considering Reyes’ injury history, is bigger than the difference between #1 and #2 at any other position.

Brien Bonneville – The Fake Baseball

Wait on pitching. Yes, Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez and CC Sabathia are great but pitching is deep and the drop-off in offensive production that you lose out on with those elite SP picks isn’t worth it. In most 12-team league drafts this year, I wait on pitching until the 5-6th round (Scale up or down depending on your league size). After those 5-6 rounds, I go on a pitching run for 3-4 picks and my pitching staffs have included a handful of these guys: Yovani Gallardo, Jeremy Hellickson, CJ Wilson, Madison Bumgarner, Adam Wainwright, Mat Latos, Michael Pineda, Stephen Strasburg.

—

That wraps up this week’s edition of Featured Pros’ advice. Thanks to the Pros for chiming in with their opinions. Be sure to visit each expert’s site and follow them on Twitter for additional insight.

Best of luck to everyone with their drafts!

Photo Credits: #1, #2

You can’t argue too much with any of those points. After all, last year’s leader in Spring Training HRs (10) was the immortal Jake Fox. You know, the same Jake Fox that was demoted to the minor leagues by June 1st.

This doesn’t mean you can’t learn anything from Spring Training performances, however. Whether a player is showing signs of breaking out (Michael Morse last year) or an opportunity is emerging for a player, it is often possible to use Spring Training as a gauge to re-evaluate players.

That’s why, for this edition of Featured Pros, we’ve enlisted several top experts to give us their take on the players – both good & bad – that are standing out so far. Let’s take a look at who is rising and falling on their fantasy draft boards.

Risers & Fallers

*Note: We asked the experts to steer clear of naming players that are primarily moving up/down due to injuries

Q1: Now that we’ve seen players in action during Spring Training, which 2 guys are you moving up your rankings the most and why?

Steve Gardner – USA Today

Madison Bumgarner: 5.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, 9 Ks, 1 BB

I’m moving Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner up in my pitcher rankings. It’s tough to base anything on Spring Training performances but Bumgarner has been very good this spring, especially the start I saw him pitch in Arizona against the Padres. He tossed three shutout innings, struck out five batters and pounded the strike zone. Coming off an excellent second half – and with an excellent home ballpark – the 22-year-old looks like he’s poised to take the next step in his development.

Yoenis Cespedes: 2-for-5, .400 BA, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SO

The other guy I’m moving up is outfielder Yoenis Cespedes of the A’s. I wasn’t sure how much time it would take him to get into playing shape or how easily he would make the transition from Cuba, but so far everything has gone well. He homered in his first official game and will continue to get plenty of exposure to high-quality pitching this spring. The A’s may not take him with them to Japan since he would likely benefit from staying at camp with the minor leaguers, but I think we’ll see him with the team and starting in left field when they come back.

Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires

Yu Darvish: 2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3Ks, 0 BB

I wanted to see Yu Darvish pitch in spring training before making any real rankings and projections. In his Cactus League debut last week, Darvish threw two shutout innings and only gave up two hits. He struck out three and walked none. His fastball is ranking from the low to mid 90’s and he also threw a sharp slider. I have him ranked as the 23rd starting pitcher, but may move him up into the top 20 this week.

Kendrys Morales: No stats accumulated

Morales has not played a single game in Spring Training, but more importantly, he has not had any setbacks to date. He ran the bases on Sunday and Monday with no setbacks and could be a draft day steal if he remains healthy and is in the Angel’s opening day lineup. Morales is currently ranked as the 29th first baseman on Fantasy Pros. He has not played a game since he broke his leg on May 29, 2010. Morales is a player that you can take a flyer on in the end of your league drafts and he has a lot of upside. I am not concerned about Mark Trumbo or Bobby Abreu being in the DH mix.

Alan Harrison – The Fantasy Fix

Elvis Andrus: 8-for-17, .471 BA, 0 HRs, 2 RBI, 0 SO

Elvis Andrus may never have the power to be considered a top-tier short stop and a first round fantasy talent, but his continuous improvement at just 23 years-old justifies his ascension up the draft boards. Thus far, Andrus is 8-for-17 with a triple, two doubles, six runs and two RBIs in the Cactus League. Called the best base runner in the Major Leagues by Bill James heading into the 2012 season, look for Andrus to approach .280, with 100 runs and 40 stolen bases to warrant your fourth round selection.

Yoenis Cespedes: 2-for-5, .400 BA, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SO

In the 2010-11 season the Cuban sensation produced a .333/.424/.667 triple slash, 80 runs, 33 home runs and 99 RBI in just 90 games. It is difficult to translate those numbers into MLB productivity, however, we caught a glimpse of his raw power during his 2-for-2 debut this past Saturday, when he muscled a line drive home run and collected two RBIs. With a respectable writer noting it is 85% likely Cespedes will break Spring Training with the big boys, I will be pouncing on him any time after the 14th round in mixed leagues, just so I don’t miss the boat.

Matt Gelfand – Baseball HQ

Josh Beckett: 9 IP, 1.00 ERA, 3 Ks, 4 BB

Josh Beckett has a lot to prove this season. The “beer and chicken incident” has resulted in spectators becoming more critical than ever about his work ethic and weight, which isn’t completely unfounded given his inconsistency over the past four seasons. However, we can chalk 2010′s 5.78 ERA up to injuries and bad luck – he maintained his near-elite skills throughout the year – and they shined through in 2011. A strong Spring Training will help silence the skeptics for now.

Brett Lawrie: 11-for-19, .579 BA, 0 HRs, 8 RBI, 3 steals

It’s difficult to gauge Brett Lawrie’s value, because it’s hard for many drafters not to over-hype him following 2011′s dynamic .293/9/25/7 line in a 150 at-bat debut. He’s a highly-touted prospect, yes, but he’s still only 22, and has already succumbed to multiple injuries (hand, finger), which only increases risk. However, he’s bound to out-perform his average draft position (ADP) based on potential alone, and his early success this Spring Training only reinforces the notion that 2011 wasn’t a fluke.

 
Q2: Which 2 guys are you moving down your rankings the most and why?  

Steve Gardner – USA Today

Kenley Jansen: 2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0 SV, 1 K, 2 BBs

Although it’s not for performance reasons, I’m moving Kenley Jansen of the Dodgers down in my rankings because it looks like manager Don Mattingly isn’t going to use Spring Training to determine who his closer will be on opening day. He said last week that it’s “defined” that Javy Guerra will start the season as the closer. Jansen has elite strikeout stuff and it seemed like only a matter of time before he took over the job, but that looks like it will have to take place later rather than sooner.

David Wright: No stats accumulated

The other guy I may have overvalued earlier is David Wright. It’s not just the injury issues, although they are a factor. I think the reflex of moving Wright up because they moved the fences in at Citi Field was probably ill advised. Part of Wright’s fantasy value has been due to his ability to steal bases (27 in 2009). As injuries and age have begun to affect him, those steals totals have gone down. With the Mets offense looking weaker than it’s been in the past, he’s less likely to put up big numbers. I’m dropping him below Ryan Zimmerman and Adrian Beltre and out of the top tier of third basemen.

Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires

Jake Peavy: 4.1 IP, 18.69 ERA, 3 Ks, 2 BBs

Jake Peavy was roughed up for his second consecutive outing on Monday. He allowed 6 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in less than 3 innings. In Spring Training, Peavy now owns an 18.69 ERA in 4 1/3 innings pitched. Not even worth a flyer at the end of league drafts.

Kenley Jansen: 2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0 SV, 1 K, 2 BBs

I initially had Kenley Jansen as one of my 2012 sleepers, but his true value is obtaining saves. But Javy Guerra was the closer at the end of last season and manager Don Mattingly confirmed last Wednesday that Guerra will open the season as the closer for the Dodgers. That’s not to say that Jansen won’t take over as the closer sometime this season, but in fantasy league drafts, Jansen is currently going as the 21st closer drafted while Guerra is being drafted as the 33rd closer off the board. Temper your expectations for Kenley Jansen and grab Javy Guerra late in your fantasy baseball drafts.

Alan Harrison – The Fantasy Fix

Jacoby Ellsbury: 2-for-13, .154 BA, 0 HRs, 0 RBI, 2 Ks

Strutting a .154/.154/.231 triple slash in five Spring Training contests is no way to follow up a career year for the 2011 American League MVP runner-up. Yes, it is a very small sample size and just Spring Training, but I do believe Jacoby Ellsbury returns to 2008 form as opposed to duplicating 2011. I would gladly select Ellsbury in the second round if he fell into my lap, but won’t expect it.

Jason Heyward: 4-for-24, .167 BA, 0 HRs, 3 RBI, 8 Ks
Many expect Jason Heyward to bounce back in 2012 after his sophomore slump. However, his Spring triple slash of .167/.231/.208 isn’t very convincing. Heyward has already accumulated eight whiffs in 24 at-bats while drawing just two walks, which is a bit of a concern. Like noted with Ellsbury, this is a small sample and should be taken with a grain of salt, but Heyward is descending down my draft boards and wouldn’t be considered before the tenth round.

Matt Gelfand – Baseball HQ

Jason Heyward: 4-for-24, .167 BA, 0 HRs, 3 RBI, 8 Ks

Shoulder woes resulted in a 2011 season so maddening for Jason Heyward owners that he may have already blacklisted himself from some rosters at age 22. The optimist in me thinks he should be forgiven because of his youth and pedigree, but his poor spring stats might have some owners wondering if he’s truly 100 percent recovered. Heyward also needs to figure out lefties (.192 BA) and stop pounding the ball into the ground (54 percent) in order to reach the potential he flashed during his rookie season.

Jake Peavy: 4.1 IP, 18.69 ERA, 3Ks, 2 BBs

Jake Peavy’s seemingly been around forever, and most owners will probably dispatch him to pitcher purgatory with the likes of other brittle hurlers such as Rich Harden and Erik Bedard because of his last two injury-plagued seasons, never to be seen or heard from again. However, he’s only two seasons removed from a 10-win, 3.60 ERA season, and at age 31 he theoretically is in the midst of his prime. Better health and luck would make him a sneaky end-game bargain, but those ugly spring stats aren’t doing much to instill confidence in a rebound.

—

That wraps up this week’s edition of Featured Pros’ advice. Thanks to the Pros for chiming in with their opinions. Be sure to visit each expert’s site and follow them on Twitter for additional insight.

Photo Credit

Deadly Accurate

If you’re like most fantasy baseball fans, you’re in full-fledged draft prep mode. Whether that involves keeping up with the latest fantasy articles, checking out rankings/projections or trying your hand at some mock drafts, you’re probably searching for any edge you can get.

That’s all well and good but how do you determine whose advice you should trust? With so many sources competing for your attention, it can be pretty difficult to decide who to listen to. One way we aim to help you out is by rating the accuracy of fantasy rankings. We’ve done this with great fanfare for fantasy football and we’re excited today to reveal the results of our first fantasy baseball assessment.

In total, we analyzed the cheat sheets of 25 experts. The goal: Determine which pundit delivered the most accurate 2011 Draft Rankings. The experts were analyzed at each 5×5 roto category and, just like a typical roto format, they were rated relative to everyone else competing. Our accuracy score, called PAY™ (Prediction Accuracy Yield), measures the % of total possible roto points scored by the expert. A 100% PAY would mean the expert ranked the highest for every 5×5 scoring category. A full overview of our methodology can be found here.

So who came out on top? Read on to get a breakdown of the highest rated experts. You can also view the entire standings over in our accuracy category.

Overall Draft Accuracy Scores

Notes:

• Congratulations to R.J. White (Fantasy Baseball Café) for outpacing the field as the competition’s most accurate expert. White was the only expert to earn separate top 5 ratings for both his Hitter & Pitcher rankings. The combined performance of both made him a natural fit as the #1 expert. So where did White get things right? Well, in addition to pegging the Ryan Braun’s and Miguel Cabrera’s of the world, he also hit the mark when it came to touting difference makers that were relatively under the radar. For instance, he notably outranked the expert consensus for the following players: Lance Berkman (+10 spots vs. consensus), Mike *Giancarlo* Stanton (+10 spots vs. consensus), Dan Haren (+8 spots vs. consensus), and Ian Kennedy (+6 spots vs. consensus).  Along with hitting on the expected studs at most positions, those picks played a part in helping White rack up points across the 5×5 roto categories.

• Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Sports) is no stranger to success in our football accuracy competitions (#1 in 2009, #3 in 2010), so it doesn’t come as a surprise that he knows a thing or two about fantasy baseball as well. As our 2^nd ranked baseball expert, Behrens displayed a particular knack for rating hitters (#1 ranking). Specifically, he was higher than all but one expert on NL MVP runner-up, Matt Kemp (OF #4) and he delivered the 2nd highest ranking for another fantasy stud in Justin Upton (OF #7). That’s not to say Behrens slacked off in the pitching department, however. He was ahead of the curve when it came to predicting several difference makers: Clayton Kershaw (+3 spots vs. consensus), Madison Bumgarner (+14 spots vs. consensus), Gio Gonzalez (+9 spots vs. consensus), and Josh Beckett (+6 spots vs. consensus). That helped Behrens garner a top 10 pitcher rating and contributed to his overall success.

•  If you’re looking for pitching advice, the rankings from Reggie Yinger (Baseball Press) should represent a good starting point. Yinger showed strong consistency at each of the 5 roto categories we tracked (W, K, SV, ERA, WHIP) en route to earning the top Pitcher rating in our contest. Leading the way were an impressive number of hits for many key relief pitchers in 2011. Perhaps most impressively, he touted arguably the season’s top reliever – Craig Kimbrel (RP #12) – higher than all but one expert. Yinger also earned points by slotting important contributors such as John Axford (RP #10) and J.J. Putz (RP #11) ahead of the rest of the field.  And, on the other end of the spectrum, he showed some foresight by handing out two of the lowest ratings (RP #5 & RP #18) for a couple of expected studs – Brian Wilson & Jonathan Broxton – that disappointed due to injury issues.

• While they may be best known as a football site, KFFL delivered an impressive showing with their 2011 baseball rankings. Consistency was the name of KFFL’s game as they rated 4^th for Hitters & 6^th best for a pitchers, a combo that placed them 4^th overall. Their best predictions included ranking CY Young award winner, Justin Verlander (SP #5), above every expert as well as slotting Jacoby Ellsbury (OF #12) higher than all but a handful of pundits. Ellsbury’s unexpected power surge (32 HRs) and lofty batting average (.321) turned that decision into a big payoff.  It also didn’t hurt KFFL’s cause that they anticipated several drop-offs from touted players. Their ranking for Ichiro Suzuki (OF #30) was 17 spots lower than the expert consensus and they also slotted Matt Holliday (OF #33) below all but 1 expert. For a variety of reasons, both players failed to put up expected numbers and KFFL benefited as a result.

Breakout Players

As always, there were several key players that performed above expectations. The difference between drafting or passing on those guys could have had a significant impact on any team’s fantasy fortunes. That’s why we’re recognizing the experts that were the strongest advocates of each player (i.e. they had the player ranked higher than anyone else).

We’ve included Expert Consensus Ranks (ECR) in the table below to show just how far out on a limb each expert went with their ranking.

*Ranks are at the position level

—

That wraps up our analysis of 2011’s expert draft rankings. Don’t forget, you can view the entire standings of all 25 experts in the accuracy section of our site. Congratulations again to R.J. White and the rest of the top experts!

Lastly, be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook to stay on top of our latest news and updates. We have several exciting announcements planned leading up to the start of the baseball season so stay tuned….

Photo Credit