After previously focusing on the pitching side of the equation, we’ll turn the focus to offense this week, focusing on guys who fit into one of three buckets:

Turnarounds – Poor April, very good May

Complete Duds – Take the opposite of “Turnarounds”
 
Surprises – Guys who made a cameo in April (if that), but have got off to a solid start this month
 

Turnarounds

Marco Scutaro (SF): Scutaro is batting .471 this month and after hitting just .240 in April, and if your team has guys like Pedro Alvarez who hit for power but not average, then Scutaro could be a good fit. He’s hit just one home run this year and has yet to steal a base, so that limits his value, but he’s going to score runs and hit for a solid average, so with the positional flexibility Scutaro offers in most leagues, he’s a nice guy to have around.
 
Jason Kipnis (CLE): Kipnis ranked a top-five second baseman, if not higher, this spring, and after getting off to a .555 OPS start in April, the calendar turned to May and Kipnis took off. Through Monday, Kipnis was hitting .324/.386/.703 with six homers and four steals as well as 20 runs batted in. I was looking pretty foolish last month after my preseason prediction that Kipnis would be the No. 2 fantasy second baseman behind Robinson Cano this year, but at this rate, a 30/30 season could be within his grasp, though it’s probably safer to predict 20/25. Kipnis has added a full eight percentage points to his flyball rate over last year (38.3% in 2012), and that could go a long way towards his approaching 30 home runs. I remain highly optimistic here.
 
Brandon Belt (1B – SF): For a while there, I was questioning my decision to extend Belt’s contract to $16 on an NL-only league to secure him for a couple extra years, but I’m feeling a bit better these days. He’s batting .302/.393/.604 this month with four homers in to already double last month’s output. He’s also drawn two more walks (eight) than he did in all of April, so more plate discipline, more power, and he’s hitting for average. He’s growing into his power, homering once every 23 at-bats in 2013 versus once every 59 trips in 2012. A .300-25-85 season appears very reachable.
 
Jay Bruce (CIN): Bruce has still walked in just 2.8% of his PA’s this year and struck out in 25.4% of them, but at least he’s not killing fantasy teams right now. After a .651 OPS in April, Bruce has hit .338/.352/.721 with five homers so far in May, and for the year, he’s hitting .309 against left-handers after clocking in at .225 against them last year. Bruce has walked just twice all month, and that is something to watch, but it’s hard to criticize a 1.073 OPS too much. I would expect Bruce to remain a boom or bust sort of guy, as with his strength, he’s going to go on home run binges, but with the overall lack of plate discipline, there will be some down times as well.
 
Mitch Moreland (TEX): Moreland was on the hot seat from the get-go, with Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar pushing for big league time and Moreland seeming to be vulnerable. His .765 OPS in April did nothing to quell those thoughts, but May has been a different story, as Moreland has hit .329/.385/.729 with seven homers. Once Ian Kinsler returns from the DL, he’s going to return to second base, not first base, leaving Profar potentially a man without a position. At the magical age of 27, playing half his games in a band box, and having a pretty good lineup around him, Moreland could easily double last year’s home run output of 15.
 
Justin Smoak (SEA): Smoak of course has a fairly well-known history. A history that includes being the center piece in a deal involving Cliff Lee, and a history of failing to live up to our expectations. Could that be changing? Perhaps. After homering just once in his first 38 games of 2013, Smoak has homers in two of his last three. His May OPS sits at .934 after April’s .642. Smoak is still finding himself on the bench against left-handers on occasion, and given that he’s a switch-hitter, that does raise an eyebrow or two. Smoak’s line against southpaws for the year is just .150/.261/.175 in 40 at-bats, though a lot of that is probably sample-size related given that he was actually 76 points of OPS better against them last year than against right-handers. Bottom line: It’s too early to tell whether he’s finally “getting it”, but given his past prospect status, I’d sure love to own him in AL-only and deeper mixed league formats.
 

Duds

Dexter Fowler (OF – COL): Well we knew he wasn’t going to hit eight homers every month as he did in April, but .238/.294/.270 with no homers and two steals in May? Now that hurts. I still love the athleticism I see in Fowler, but the lack of consistency is maddening. He’s completely lost focus at the plate, posting a 0.19 BB/K rate this month versus April’s 0.63. There’s still time to turn it around obviously, but I’m hesitant to start Fowler in 12-team mixed leagues right now. You can’t drop him for fear that June will look like April, but hopefully you have other options while he sorts out his issues at the dish.
 
Carlos Santana (C – CLE): Santana has a .367 OBP and a homer every 23 at-bats for his career, so he’s contributed when healthy, but the .252 career average is a letdown and we’re still waiting for that true breakout season. After a 1.198 OPS in April, we thought maybe that season was 2013, but his .190/.320/.349 start in May is shaking that optimism. It helps that he’s still drawing walks, so this could very well be a case of bad luck on balls in play. I’m hoping to watch him a bit more this week to see if I can draw further conclusions, but the talent he showed in April couldn’t have evaporated this quickly. I’d probably just consider May a minor correction for the ridiculous April numbers, as overall, he’s still at a reasonable .296/.403/.548 slash line.
 
Yuniesky Betancourt (UT – MIL): Betancourt drew his typical three walks in April, but a .280 with six homers and with multi-position eligibility, he was something he has rarely been in his career, a fantasy asset. Then May came and reality set in to the tune of .167/.214/.273. Betancourt does have some pop, but as a guy that walks less than 4% of the time, he’s going to have runs like this as pitchers get him to chase pitches out of this zone. In fact, Betancourt is swinging at 42% of the non-strikes thrown his way, which is good for fifth-worst in the league behind fellow hackers Pablo Sandoval and friends. If you’re really desperate for power in NL-only leagues and have high-average guys to offset the lack of contact ability, then maybe he has value, but even that is debatable.
 
Alcides Escobar (SS – KC): The Zack Greinke deal with the Brewers still looks good, but it would look far better if Escobar’s April was repeatable. Escobar hit .286/.330/.439 for the month, a seemingly solid but modest line, but he also hit three homers, drove in 12, and swiped six bags. Who here wouldn’t take 18 homers and 42 steals from their fantasy shortstop? Fast forward to May, and Escobar has hit .200/.200/.213 for his first 75 at-bats to go with no homers, one XBH, and zero walks. All in all, he’s been a huge liability. Escobar still has plenty of value in deeper formats for his stolen-base ability, but he’s not going to hit for a lot of power, and I’m not sure how close he’s going to come to last year’s .293 average. I still think there’s enough raw ability here for Escobar to have a nice career, but I’m not sure that happens in 2013.
 
Lucas Duda (OF – NYM): Duda has already homered eight times, but after rocking a .978 OPS in April, he is batting just .172/.222/.345 through his first 58 at-bats this month. Duda is now competing for time in left field with Andrew Brown, and considering he’s striking out a fourth of the time and doing little else besides hitting the occasional home run, Duda’s playing time is in serious jeopardy. The power makes him NL-only worthy, but there’s a lot of downside here as well.
 
John Buck (C – NYM): I’m guessing I’m not the only one that predicted that after Buck slammed nine homers in April, that he wouldn’t carry that over and finish with 54 for the year. A hot April has led to a May in which Buck has batted .192/.311/.269 with just one home run. He has walked seven times this month after drawing just four free passes in April, so there’s that. Buck was brought in to provide a bridge to Travis d’Arnaud, but after Buck’s hot start and d’Arnaud’s latest injury, things seemed to have shifted in April. Well, they’ve shifted right back. D’Arnaud should be back sometime in June, and assuming he gets off to a solid start in Triple-A, we should see him in New York no later than August.
 
Jacoby Ellsbury (OF – BOS): A strong 2013 probably leaves Ellsbury in line for near nine figures in free agency this winter, but after a decent .752 OPS with 11 steals in April, Ellsbury is batting a paltry .179/.256/.318 in May with just two steals and no home runs. In fact, after homering once every 20.6 at-bats in 2011, Ellsbury saw that metric drop to 75.8 last year, and now in 2013, it sits at a Brendan Ryan-like 191. At this point, it seems safe to say that we’ve seen the best Ellsbury has to offer (2011), but what can we expect going forward? I think there’s more power in his bat, but it’s probably more like 12-15 homer power than 25-30. That said, Ellsbury is also on pace to swipe more than 40 bags despite a .303 OBP, so there’s some sneaky value to be had here.
 

Surprises

Luke Scott (DH – TB): Scott has had his moments in his up and down career, but after making his first start of the season on April 30, he is batting a surprising .296/.420/.481 with 12 walks and three homer to his 54 at-bats. Scott still doesn’t have Joe Maddon’s trust against left-handers, and probably rightfully so, but Scott is a professional hitter prone to these kind of runs, so enjoy it while you can. Just don’t forget that Scott has hit .220 and .229 over the last two years, so at the first sign of a cold spell, he’s best left on your bench or the waiver wire.
 
Josh Donaldson (3B – OAK): After posting a .878 OPS in April, it wouldn’t have been a huge surprise to see Donaldson take a step back in May, but instead of fading into oblivion, Donaldson has batted .315/.391/.530 with four homers and nine walks through 66 at-bats in May. At this rate, Donaldson could approach a .300-20-100 season, and if you rostered Donaldson in your deeper league draft this spring, well done. I don’t see him finishing much over .280 by season’s end, but Donaldson did rack up home-run totals of 19, 17, and 22 the three seasons prior, so the power is real.
 
Didi Gregorius (SS – ARI): Arizona general manager Kevin Towers was universally mocked after the deal involving Trevor Bauer and Gregorius this spring, particularly after Towers oddly compared Gregorius to a young Derek Jeter. That said, is the last laugh set to fall on the KT haters? Gregorius was 0-for-5 on Tuesday, but he also notched a pair of walks and is now batting a solid .348/.402/.562 with a surprising three home runs in 89 at-bats. Gregorius has never tallied more than seven homers in a full season of professional ball, but now he’s on pace to top double-digits. Gregorius isn’t this good, but it’s starting to look like the fantasy owners that spend $15+ of their FAAB budget to procure his services are pretty smart after all. I like watching him play and see a lot of raw athletic ability in the way he approaches things at plate, and though there will be struggles, I’m starting to think the Diamondbacks have a keeper here.
 
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Wednesday Games

Mat Latos (Reds) @ Mets – David Wright is 2 for 11 (.182) against Latos, but the two hits were a double and a home run. Still, Wright is batting just .254 at Citi Field, as opposed to .359 on the road, so perhaps this is an occasion to bench the stud. Others to sit would be John Buck (0 for 8) and Ike Davis (0 for 6). Latos doesn’t have a great track record at Citi Field. In two starts there he is 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA.

Jarrod Parker (A’s) @ Rangers – Parker has handled the Rangers with little difficulty. In three starts against them he is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and he’s held Rangers batters to a .179 average. Nelson Cruz is 0 for 9, Ian Kinsler is 0 for 7 and even Adrian Beltre has just a .222 average against Parker.

Trevor Cahill (D-backs) @ Rockies – The Rockies haven’t been kind to Cahill during his short career. In seven outings against them he is 2-4 with a 4.87 ERA and the team is batting .288 against him. This shows up in the Pitcher/Batter stats pretty well too. Dexter Fowler leads the way with a .500 average (5 for 10), two triples and two stolen bases against Cahill. Josh Rutledge is 4 for 10, and Jordan Pacheco is 3 for 10 with a home run. Other samples are too small to bother with, but I wouldn’t hesitate to start any Rockies hitter against Cahill in Coors Field.

Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies) vs. D-backs – De La Rosa has been superb against the Diamondbacks with a career record of 7-4 in 14 starts with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He’s held the team to a career .212 batting average against him. Of course, there are many new faces on the Diamondbacks these days, so only Cody Ross (.296) and Gerardo Parra (.231) have samples large enough to consider. Given De La Rosa’s dominance of the team, he’s a strong start against them pitching at home in Coors Field.

Gio Gonzalez (Nationals) @ Giants – Gonzalez has “survived” the Giants at AT&T Park with a 1-1 record over three starts. He has a 3.38 ERA there, but his WHIP is 1.50 mainly because he’s walked eight batters and given up 20 hits in 18 innings, including three home runs. You should definitely start Andres Torres, who is 5 for 19 (.263) and sit Marco Scutaro who is 2 for 17 (.118) against Gonzalez.

Madison Bumgarner (Giants) vs. Nationals – Bumgarner is superb at home with a 21-13 record, 3.08 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 46 home starts. Several Nationals have had some luck against him, though, including Ryan Zimmerman (.300) with a home run, Ian Desmond (3 for 8) and Danny Espinosa (3 for 9). Sit Adam LaRoche, who has just two hits in 13 at bats (.154) against Bumgarner.

Jeff Samardzija (Cubs) @ Pirates – Samardzija has been a Pirate killer, especially at PNC Park, where his is 4-0 with a 0.60 ERA and 0.50 WHIP. Aside from Andrew McCutchen (.308), there isn’t anyone on the Pirates who’s been able to hit Samardzija, and even he has six strikeouts in 13 at bats. Gaby Sanchez is 1 for 10, Garrett Jones is 1 for 11, and both Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez are 2 for 10.

Francisco Liriano (Pirates) vs. Cubs – Liriano has pitched well in PNC Park; he has a 2-0 record in three stars with a 1.86 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. David DeJesus has been hitting well lately but against Liriano he is just 2 for 15 (.133).

Kevin Slowey (Marlins) vs. Phillies – Slowey already has two starts against the Phillies this season with a record of 1-0, a 0.73 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Michael Young is 3 for 12 and Ryan Howard is 3 for 7 against Slowey, so they are decent starts. The same can’t be said of Chase Utley (1 for 7), Delmon Young (0 for 5) or Domonic Brown (0 for 6).

Clay Buchholz (Red Sox) @ White Sox – Of course he’s been lights out this season; he’s 6-0 with a 1.78 ERA in case you’ve been under a rock since March. However, US Cellular Park has been a boondoggle for Buchholz in the past; he’s 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and he’s coughed up three homers in 11 innings there. To be fair, the poor start that killed his numbers was back in 2008. He actually had a great outing there in 2010, so perhaps I’m jumping the gun with the whole boondoggle thing. But be aware that Paul Konerko is 6 for 12 with a home run, and lowly Jeff Keppinger, he of the .199 current average, is batting .273 with a homer against him. Alex Rios is 2 for 13 and Gordon Beckham just 1 for 8.

Ubaldo Jimenez (Indians) vs. Tigers – Beware the Tiger(s)! There’s been lots written about how Jimenez has been better of late, but those starts came on the road, my friends. At Progressive Park he is a pitiful 1-2 with a 9.72 ERA, 1.98 WHIP and opposing batters, um, er, battering him with a .308 average. The Tigers have been especially tough on Jimenez over the years; in 14 starts against them, he is 5-7 with a 4.79 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Victor Martinez (.333, 2 HR), Jhonny Peralta (.304, HR), Miguel Cabrera (.342, HR), Prince Fielder (.286), Austin Jackson (.333) and almost the whole darn team have battered Jimenez. Just for kicks, Torii Hunter is 2 for 13 and Andy Dirks is just 4 for 24 (.167).

Justin Verlander (Tigers) @ Indians – There’s hope for Jimenez after all because Verlander is a decidedly human 7-10 at Progressive Field with a 5.38 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Can you believe it? Michael Brantley digs hitting Verlander, as he has a .423 career average against him. Mike Aviles is 4 for 16 and Jason Giambi is 4 for 15 with a pair of homers against him. Nick Swisher has taken Verlander deep three times but has just a .214 average against him. Jason Kipnis (2 for 12) and Asdrubal Cabrera (.170).

C.J. Wilson (Angels) vs. Mariners – Wilson hasn’t lost his last three outings against Seattle dating back to September of 2011. But he hasn’t been particularly effective at home with a record of 8-10 and a 3.50 ERA in 24 starts there. Who says Brendan Ryan can’t hit? Against Wilson he’s 5 for 18 (.278) and Kendrys Morales is batting .300. Dustin Ackley (.200), Michael Saunders (.133) and Kyle Seager (.125) have all struggled against Wilson.

Jason Hammel (Orioles) vs. Yankees – The Yankees have been a bit of a problem for Hammel, who has faced them four times in the past two seasons. He is 1-1 with a 3.70 ERA, mainly because he’s allowed four homers in 22 innings pitched against the Yankees. Travis Hafner (.300, 2 HRs), Vernon Wells (.357, 2 HRs) and Robinson Cano (.385) have all crushed Hammel in the past. Curtis Granderson (.214) and Lyle Overbay (.071), not so much.

Hiroki Kuroda (Yankees) @ Orioles – Kuroda has been tough on the Orioles with a record of 2-1 and a 1.85 ERA in three starts. Nick Markakis (.364) and Adam Jones (.300) have had some success against the righty. J.J. Hardy (.154), Chris Davis (.200) and Nate McLouth (.100) have definitely not had any success.

Jeremy Hellickson (Rays) @ Blue Jays – Whatever you do, sit Brett Lawrie down against Hellickson; he is 0 for 11 against him. Maicer Izturis (.200), Rajai Davis (.125) and Colby Rasmus (.235) are also candidates to sit.

Thursday Games

Edwin Jackson (Cubs) @ Pirates – Jackson is 4-1 with a 3.09 ERA in seven starts against the Pirates. Garrett Jones is 3 for 12 with a homer, Brandon Inge is 6 for 23 and John McDonald is 5 for 15 against Jackson. Russell Martin is just 2 for 12 and Pedro Alvarez is 1 for 8.

Brandon Morrow (Blue Jays) vs. Orioles – Here’s another hurler who’s tough to recommend based on how he’s pitching this season, so I won’t do it. Chris Davis is 2 for 14 and Matt Wieters is 2 for 18, so sit both down against Morrow. Start Nick Markakis (.280) and J.J. Hardy (.278).

Scott Diamond (Twins) @ Tigers – Austin Jackson (.222) and Jhonny Peralta (.200), as well as Prince Fielder (.091) have all had a hard time at the plate against Diamond.

Rick Porcello (Tigers) vs. Twins – Josh Willingham treats Porcello like batting practice with a .600 average against him. Ryan Doumit (.400), Trevor Plouffe (.267) and Jamey Carroll (.368) have all hit him well. Justin Morneau is 6 for 26 and Joe Mauer is 6 or 27 against him.

Michael Bourn is 10 for 32 (.313) lifetime against Ryan Dempster.

Josh Hamilton is 10 for 37 (.270) with a pair of homers against Ervin Santana.
 
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Nick Raducanu provides a recap of yesterday’s performances and gives his recommendations for Tuesday’s games.

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5 Good Nights, 5 Bad Nights

It’s a fact of life that every baseball player goes through hot and cold streaks. It’s important not to let those streaks influence a player’s fantasy baseball value too much, but it is important to be aware of how a player is doing within a short period of time (a seven-day sorter is always a good tool to use). A player’s short-term numbers can be the difference between winning and losing in daily games, and it can also make a huge difference in year-long leagues. For instance, if you can keep finding the second basemen on hot streaks and dropping them for another streaking second basemen once they get cold, you can piece together a very useful middle infielder-by-committee for your roto team. So before we get to today’s games, let’s take a spin through last night’s box scores to identify who had a good night and who had a bad night on Monday, May 20th.

5 Good Nights

• Yan Gomes: 3-5, 2 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI
• Brandon Belt: 4-5,  4 R, HR, RBI
• Travis Hafner: 2-5, R, HR, 2 RBI, 1 steal
• Patrick Corbin: 9.0 IP, 3 H, ER, BB, 10 Ks, W
• Clayton Kershaw: 9.0 IP, 3 H, ER, BB, 5 Ks, W

Honorable Mention: Miguel Tejada, Marlon Byrd, Adam Dunn, Dan Uggla, Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Raburn, Angel Pagan, Matt Dominguez, Seth Smith, Dominic Brown, Julio Teheran, R.A. Dickey, Bartolo Colon, Alex Sanabia, Jason Marquis, Freddy Garcia, Cole Hamels, Dylan Axelrod, Ryan Vogelsong

5 Bad Nights

• Casey Janssen: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, BB, K
• Scott Kazmir: 3.0 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 Ks
• Kevin Correia: 4.0 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, BB
• Manny Machado: 0-5,
• Michael Saunders: 0-5

Dishonorable Mention: Cesar Izturis, Derek Norris, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jeremy Guthrie, Jim Johnson, Chris Perez, Jon Garland, Josh Lindblom, Shaun Marcum, Jon Lester, Hisashi Iwakuma

Daily Grab Bag

Check back here for daily updates on injuries, closer battles, player news, and anything else that might affect your fantasy baseball team.

 
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The good news is this gives skilled owners a chance to take advantage of the uncertainty. To help out in that regard, we’ve asked our Featured Pros to share advice about this year’s potential rookie steals and overvalued players.

Summary: Dynasty Rookie Advice

Q1: Name the rookie you think is most undervalued by the Expert Consensus and tell us what you like about his outlook.

Aaron Dobson (WR – NE)

Expert Consensus: #17 Rookie

“I’m probably even guilty of undervaluing Dobson a bit, but as the season draws closer he’ll jump up my rankings. The fact remains that he’s got a great size/speed package and he’s on an explosive New England offense. He has the potential to be a terror as a rookie and has major long-term upside.” – Kevin Roberts (NFL Soup)

“For the most undervalued player in dynasty drafts this year, I will take Patriots WR Aaron Dobson. With a current ADP of 18 in rookie only drafts, he is a steal. When it comes to rookies, I tend to look at players with massive upside in a high powered offense. Most won’t start off the bat, but Dobson has the opportunity to win the starting job with his only competition being Michael Jenkins and Donald Jones. At 6’3″ with a 4.40 forty, Dobson comes with as much upside as anyone in this class because of his situation.” – Mike Tagliere (Tags Fantasy Football)

Zac Stacy (RB -STL)

Expert Consensus: #15 Rookie

“Neither Daryl Richardson nor Isaiah Pead possesses the features necessary to fill the massive void vacated by Steven Jackson. On the other hand, fifth round selection Zac Stacy has both the size and experience to hold up as a feature back after carrying the ball 408 times in his last two years at Vanderbilt. Stacy actually thrived from having an increased workload, averaging a full yard per carry more in the spotlight than as a backup. Richardson and Pead can’t say the same. The Rams will likely use a committee run game in 2013 but Stacy already seems like the most viable high capacity replacement for Jackson going forward.” – Sean Morris (Bruno Boys)

Charles Johnson (WR – GB):

Expert Consensus: #42 Rookie

“Truly undervalued with an eye on the future beyond 2013, I think Green Bay’s WR Charles Johnson fits that bill as he ranks 42nd overall on the list. Johnson played at a small school college because of off-field issues that are hopefully behind him. Johnson has the prototypical size at 6’2″, 215 lbs, and great speed (4.36 in the 40) that are the trademarks of the strong WR1s in both fantasy football and the NFL. In Green Bay, he’ll start off as being no higher than 4th on the depth chart in 2013, but with James Jones in the last year of his contract this season and Jordy Nelson’s up after 2014, Johnson has a chance to ascend to a starting job in another year or two.” – Russ Bliss (Fantasy Football Starters)

Le’Veon Bell (RB – PIT)

Expert Consensus: #4 Rookie

I know, I know. Bell is top five in most rankings but I consider him undervalued because I believe he should be the top ranked rookie. Bell has the size, speed and most importantly the three down skill set to be an immediate impact fantasy RB. With little competition for touches in the Steelers’ backfield he will be the workhorse RB that Todd Haley likes to ride. St Louis will need to invent ways to get the speedy Tavon Austin the ball while Pittsburgh can simply hand it (or utilize his above average receiving abilities) to the big back from Michigan State.” – Wally Spurlin (Fantasy Sharks)

Q2: Name the rookie you feel is most overvalued by the Expert Consensus and tell us why you feel that way.

Cordarrelle Patterson (WR – MIN)

Expert Consensus: #6 Rookie

“A top six rookie ranking is too high for the kid from Tennessee. While Patterson is explosively quick and capable of being a game changer he is also very raw with only one season of Division I football. He is also playing for a run first (and realistically run second) team that just signed a legit number one receiver in Greg Jennings. Oh yeah, I’m not exactly enamored with the QBs that could possibly be throwing to Patterson either.” – Wally Spurlin (Fantasy Sharks)

Eddie Lacy (RB – GB)

Expert Consensus: #3 Rookie

“There is no denying Lacy’s talent but the hamstring and foot problems he has experienced are injuries that sit firmly atop the running back red flag list. The Packers appear to be as concerned as anyone so they drafted UCLA’s workhorse Jonathan Franklin a round later. Franklin would give Lacy a run for his money any day so it’s tough to justify heavily investing in Lacy’s long term prospects right now. Additionally, as proven before, Mike McCarthy’s fragile running back super-committee is the last thing you can rely on for short or long term fantasy value anyway.” – Sean Morris (Bruno Boys)

Robert Woods (WR – BUF)

Expert Consensus: #12 Rookie

“I am not a believer in Buffalo WR Robert Woods ever having high fantasy value. For him to rank 12th overall on the list is way too high as he isn’t dynamic enough of a player to be more than a WR2 in the NFL, and probably no better than a WR3 in fantasy football at any point of his career. There are much better candidates to be a WR1 for both fantasy and in the NFL from this rookie class that rank lower than him. It’s not that Woods won’t be a decent NFL player, but he’s got little chance to ever make a meaningful fantasy impact. I think another rookie WR in Buffalo (undrafted Da’Rick Rogers) has a much better chance to become fantasy relevant in a couple of years than Woods.” – Russ Bliss (Fantasy Football Starters)

Tavon Austin (WR – STL)

Expert Consensus: #2 Rookie

“My pick for most overvalued rookie would be none other than Rams WR Tavon Austin. While everyone is looking for the next receiver that will dominate the NFL, I don’t believe Austin will be any more than a WR3 in fantasy leagues. His Dynasty ADP is around 27 for WRs right now and rising, which is borderline WR2 territory come draft day. He is another version of DeSean Jackson and will be drafted too high for my liking. He will very often be a boom or bust receiver and cause more headaches than celebrations.” – Mike Tagliere (Tags Fantasy Football)

Christine Michael (RB – SEA)

Expert Consensus: #18 Rookie

“Don’t get me wrong; Michael is a special talent. However, he’s buried behind Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin right now, and there’s no telling how long that will last. If he has an actual role, he’d sky-rocket up my rankings.” – Kevin Roberts (NFL Soup)

—

Thanks to the Featured Pros for stopping by to share their rookie advice. If you’d like to get more insight from the experts, be sure to visit their sites and follow them on Twitter:

Russ Bliss | @FFStarters

Kevin Roberts | @NFLSoupKevin

Walton Spurlin | @WaltonSpurlin

Mike Tagliere | @TagsFantasyFB

Sean Morris | @BrunoBoysMorris

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Andrew Miller breaks down this week’s top two-start pitchers and streaming options.

This article is part of our series that highlights quality fantasy baseball content. TheFantasyFix has been gracious enough to share a weekly article with us. For additional insight, you can visit TheFantasyFix.com.

Two-Start Pitcher Rankings

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Moreland has gone into this HR trot 6 times in May (.339 AVE). The experts have taken notice with their waiver rankings.

It’s been an odd week in baseball. From Bryce Harper running into walls to a classic Willie Mays Hayes flub, there have been more than a few buzz-worthy moments. Of course, amidst the oddities, there have been plenty of changes in player stock that could impact your fantasy teams.

To help out, we’ve rounded up another group of Featured Pros to rank this week’s top readily available players in most leagues. So whether your team has been hit by the injury bug or you simply need to make an upgrade, read on to find out which pickups the experts recommend.

Featured Pros

Jason Willan (The Fake Baseball)

Nate Springfield (Baseball Press)

Uncle Leo (RotoBaller)

Terrance Bridgett (FantasyTrade411)

Batter Rankings (Waiver Wire)*

 *List consists of relevant players with at least 50% availability in Yahoo! leagues

Batter Advice

Each expert was asked to share advice about a hitter they like along with any other waiver wire suggestions they have. Here’s what the pundits had to say:

Jason Willan – The Fake Baseball

After closing the year strong in 2012 and crushing the ball in Spring Training, Brandon Belt was one of my preseason sleepers this year. After a terrible start to the season, Belt has been turning things around in May, including a .412 average, 2 HR, and 7 RBI over the last week. He can easily hit 20 more home runs this season and should be owned in more leagues.

Nate Springfield – Baseball Press

Mitch Moreland got off to a horrendous start this season, even prompting talks of losing his job to prospect Mike Olt, but the promise that he has shown in limited time the past two seasons is starting to show now with his full time job. The biggest change that has led to his recent success has been his improved ability to hit left-handed pitching. Even though he is slugging considerably better against right-handed pitching, his batting average has only a five point disparity between the two.

Uncle Leo – RotoBaller

Mitch Moreland is on an absolute tear recently, and added another 3 RBIs to his total in a two 2B effort last night against the struggling Verlander. Moreland also has 3 HRs in the last 4 games, and six HRs in the last 11 games. He’s now batting a healthy .296/.348/.577 on the season, and even more encouraging is he’s batting .281 vs lefties and .296 vs righties. Couple those stats with his full-time gig in 2013 and him batting in the middle of a solid Texas lineup and hitter’s park. Moreland should be added and started in all fantasy leagues immediately — at least until he cools off.

Terrance Bridgett – FantasyTrade411

Gerardo Parra figured to be the odd man out in the Arizona Diamondbacks outfield to start the year. With injuries to Adam Eaton and Jason Kubel as of late, the 25-year old figures to receive over 500 at-bats for the first time in his career. Parra’s a solid player as he currently sits at a .319 BA and that figures to drop a bit but not much. Parra is in-line to have a career year with an OBP of .421 currently and hitting atop the Diamondbacks lineup could make him a great source for runs. He should chip in double digit steals and home runs without hurting your batting average.

Pitcher Rankings (Waiver Wire)*

*List consists of relevant players with at least 50% availability in Yahoo! leagues

Pitcher Advice

Jason Willan – The Fake Baseball

Ubaldo Jimenez hasn’t done much to earn your trust in the last few years, but the numbers over his previous three starts heading into Friday are actually very good.  In his last 18.2 innings pitched, Jimenez has allowed just 10 hits and 3 runs, while striking out 20 batters and recording 3 wins.  The wheels could quickly fall off again, but his recent work warrants some consideration on your fantasy waiver wire.

Uncle Leo – RotoBaller

It’s crazy to think that Ubaldo Jimenez might actually be pitching like his old dominant self again. Jimenez had a real nice start over the weekend, going 6 IP with 8 Ks and 1 ER against the powerful Tigers’ offense. That was his 2nd consecutive start with 8 Ks, and over his last 3 starts he’s been fantastic giving up only 3 ERs over 18 2/3 IPs, to go along with 20 Ks. He’s definitely a guy to add in deep leagues to see if he’s finally turned the corner in 2013. If he has another solid start against the Mariners he will officially be a must add in all league formats. Keep your fingers crossed.

Nate Springfield – Baseball Press

It took Brandon McCarthy a little while to get comfortable on the mound again, after having his 2012 season cut short by a line drive back up the middle, but in his last four starts he has shown he is getting there. Starting with his start on April 26th against the Rockies, his strikeout-to-walk rate has rebounded to career norms, and he was able to go eight innings in his last start. Look for a higher final ERA and WHIP from last year because of the bad start and where he is pitching, but he’s great value the rest of the way for a waiver wire grab.

Terrance Bridgett – FantasyTrade411

Chris Tillman certainly isn’t the sexiest pitcher available but he has been getting the job done. After a rocky first two starts, the last five starts have been Quality Starts. The 24-year old hurler for the Orioles will have his moments down the road where it can get ugly as he continues to walk too many hitters (37:20 K:BB Ratio) so be careful but you can do much worse.

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Thanks to this week’s Featured Pros for sharing their advice. You can visit each expert’s site and follow them on Twitter for additional fantasy insight.

Also, if you’re looking for a fun way to play fantasy baseball AND win cash, check out FanDuel’s Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship. You can still qualify for this mega-contest that will pay out over $1 million this summer.

More FanDuel Info: Friday Contest | Weekend Contests

Mike Baum provides a recap of Thursday’s performances and gives his take on the fantasy implications. This article is part of our series that highlights quality fantasy content. The Fake Baseball has been gracious enough to share a weekly article with our users. For additional insight, visit TheFakeBaseball.com

Hitters

• Will Middlebrooks delivered a clutch 2-out bases clearing double in the top of the 9^th to put the Red Sox ahead for good on Thursday night. Middlebrooks has shown some signs of life recently, with 7 doubles and a homer in his last 7 games after a stretch of 9 games without a single extra-base hit.

Fantasy spin: Middlebrooks still strikes out too much which will prevent him from hitting for a great average, but the young 3B has a respectable 7 HR and 17 RBI on the season. Those numbers make him a back-end starter in deep leagues.

• Jay Bruce went 2-for-4 with a double and 3 runs driven in, powering the Reds to a 5-3 victory over the Marlins. Bruce is making his owners forget about his slow April, posting a .308/.333/.596 line in the month of May with 7 doubles, 2 homers, and 13 RBI.

Fantasy spin: His overall power numbers are still below expectations, but it’s encouraging that he is racking up doubles and driving in runs. A home run binge is likely right around the corner for Bruce, who is looking to make it three straight seasons with 30+ homers.

• Wilin Rosario went 2-for-4 with a three-run homer in the Rockies 8-6 loss to the Giants on Thursday night. The blast was Rosario’s first since April 29^th, and the young backstop has seen his average drop from .350 to .274 so far in the month of May.

 Fantasy spin: Rosario was never a good bet to hit for a high average to begin with, so owners shouldn’t panic that he’s dropped down to the .270s. He hit .270 last year, and also hit 28 homers, a pace he is slightly ahead of this year. Rosario is one of the top 5 catchers in all of fantasy.

• Brandon Crawford continued his surprisingly solid offensive production on Thursday night by going 2-for-4 with a double, 2 runs scored, and 3 runs driven in. Crawford raised his average to .277 with the effort, and he has 22 runs and 20 RBI on the season.

Fantasy spin: Crawford bats primarily from the 8 spot in front of the pitcher, but he’s still producing at a nice clip. Crawford had shown very little offensively prior to this year, but he’s just 26 years old, an age when many ballplayers start to break out. If you scooped him up to fill in at SS or MI, keep riding him until he stops hitting.

• Jacoby Ellsbury went 0-for-5 on Thursday night and is now batting just .188 (12-for-64) in the month of May.

Fantasy spin: Worst of all for fantasy owners, he has just 1 stolen base this month after swiping 11 in April. It’s tough to bench a guy like Ellsbury because he’s a threat to steal any time he gets on base, but he’s certainly in a major funk right now. If you need stolen base help, consider floating a buy low offer to Ellsbury’s owner.

• Albert Pujols hit a 2-run homer on Thursday night, his 7^th of the year, but the Angels fell to the White Sox 5-4. Pujols has now hit safely in 8 of his last 9 games, but he has just 3 multi-hit games and has only driven in 6 runs in that stretch.

Fantasy spin: The Angels are really struggling this season, and Pujols deserves a chunk of the blame. They currently sit 12 games out of first place, and 11 games below .500. The Angels and fantasy owners need Pujols to wake up and start raking soon. It’s worth noting that last year at this time Pujols had just 3 HR and was batting .214, and he still ended up with 30 homers and a .285 average, so there’s plenty of time for him to turn his season around. If you can buy low enough, he’s a worthwhile gamble.

Pitchers

• Jon Niese rebounded from two terrible outings to pitch 7.1 innings of 2 run ball against the Cardinals on Thursday. Niese allowed 6 hits, walked two batters, and struck out 3 en route to his 3^rd win of the season.

Fantasy spin: Before this start, Niese declared that he had fixed some mechanical issues that were largely to blame for his poor performances, and based on the results it looks like he did. Niese’s K rate is still well below last year’s, and he has an ugly 24:24 K:BB ratio in 48.1 innings pitched, but he’s worth stashing if he was dropped to see if he can continue to turn his season around. He did register a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 155 Ks last season, so he has the potential to be a nice 4^th starter.

• Mat Latos turned in a strong performance on Thursday night, holding the Marlins to 2 runs on 4 hits in 8.1 innings pitched. Latos was 2 outs away from the complete game when he gave up a triple to Adeiny Hechavarria. Aroldis Chapman was brought in to protect the 2-1 lead, but after striking out Placido Polanco, he gave up a triple of his own to Marcell Ozuna, costing Latos a win and tagging him with another earned run.

Fantasy spin: Latos owners should be frustrated that he wasn’t able to come away with the win in this one, but overall he’s been as good as could be expected this season and is proving himself to be an excellent SP2, if not an SP1.

• Justin Verlander turned in arguably the worst start of his brilliant career on Thursday, allowing 8 runs on 6 hits and a pair of walks and failing to get out of the third inning. The outing blew his ERA from 1.93 to 3.17 on the season.

Fantasy spin: There’s really no reason to panic here, as Verlander’s velocity is trending up and he’s shown no signs of injury. Look for him to come out and completely dominate in his next start, which should be next Wednesday in Cleveland.

• Francisco Liriano moved to 2-0 on Thursday, limiting the Brewers to 1 run on 6 hits in 5.2 innings pitched. Liriano struck out 7, but also walked 3 batters.

Fantasy spin: If you need the Ks, Liriano is a worthy investment, especially now that he’s pitching in the National League – he has 16 Ks in 11 innings pitched through his first two starts. Just be aware of the fact that he will struggle to get deep into games, and he’s going to walk a fair amount of batters, leading to an inflated WHIP (1.55 so far this season).

• Andy Pettitte failed to record win number 250 in his career, and he was forced to leave Thursday night’s game with a tight left trapezius muscle. The Yankees didn’t sound too concerned about the injury after the game, but it wouldn’t be a major surprise if they played it safe with their 40-year old starter and gave him a few extra days of rest.

Fantasy spin: After a strong start to the season, Pettitte has fizzled out a bit recently, recording just 1 quality start in his last 4 turns, and getting past the 5^th inning just once. He can probably be let go in shallow leagues, but I’d hold for now in deeper leagues.

• Fernando Rodney blew his 3^rd save of the season on Thursday, and he did so in pathetic fashion. Called on to protect a 3-1 lead, Rodney walked Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, and Daniel Nava to load the bases before Will Middlebrooks cleared the bases with a double to the left-centerfield gap. Rodney stayed in the game to face Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and he walked him as well before finally getting the hook. In all Rodney threw 35 pitches, just 16 for strikes.

Fantasy spin: The roller coaster season continues for Rodney, who had settled down and recorded 4 straight scoreless innings before last night’s implosion. Rodney is still throwing in the upper 90s with his fastball, but he simply couldn’t locate it last night. Rodney now has 15 walks this season in 15.1 innings pitched, the same total he had last year in 74.2 innings pitched. He’s clearly not the same guy, and the Rays are probably looking at the rest of their bullpen to see what their options are. Joel Peralta remains the take the job if a change is made.

• Junichi Tazawa was made a winner when the Red Sox came from behind in the 9^th. Tazawa pitched a perfect 8^th and then stayed in the game to pitch the 9^th, working around a pair of singles to shut the door. 

Fantasy spin: Tazawa still hasn’t had a save opportunity since being named the Red Sox interim closer, but fantasy owners will take the W and the pair of Ks. With Andrew Bailey set to return as early as Monday, Tazawa will go back to being a setup man for Boston, but it might be wise to keep him stashed on your roster considering Andrew Bailey’s extensive injury history. Even if he’s not closing games he should provide good ratios and more than a K per inning, as well as a few more rogue wins.

 
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Anthony Barone gives his picks for the Pitchers that belong in your lineups today.

This article is part of our series that highlights quality content from fantasy baseball sites. Baseball Professor has been gracious enough to share a weekly article with our users. For additional insight, you can visit BaseballProf.com.

Start/Sit: Thurs, 5/16

There are only nine games today, but a bunch of good options. It should be a fun day so let’s get right to it. As always, bold = start.

Jonathon Niese, NYM @ Adam Wainwright, STL

Wainwright’s strikeouts per nine have gone up every year since 2009. That includes last year coming off of Tommy John surgery. This year he has 55 K and only 4 BB in 58.2 IP.

Hiram Burgos, MIL @ Francisco Liriano, PIT

Liriano looked really good against the Mets. I have to seem him do it at least twice in a row, and not against the Mets before I trust the control. He owns a career 9.9 BB%.

Aaron Harang, SEA @ Andy Pettitte, NYY

Overall, Pettitte has been good so far this year. At Yankee Stadium, not so much. When pitching at home he has an ERA of 5.71 and opposing hitters have an OPS of .912. The platoon splits for Seattle are also slightly better against lefties.

Felix Doubront, BOS @ Alex Cobb, TB

Cobb is coming off a very weird, record-setting start in which he struck out 13 batters in 4.2 IP. He comes into this game with 3.09 ERA and  a 1.22 WHIP. The peripherals all suggest that it’s for real. If Doubront continues to give up 6 runs per game, Cobb could make some mistakes and still win.

Mat Latos, CIN @ Jose Fernandez, MIA

Pitch everybody against Miami. Especially a bonafide ace with four straight victories. For Fernandez, the matchup against Cincinnati might scare you a little, but anybody averaging close to 10 strikeouts per nine innings has the ability to quiet any offense on a given night. Fernandez’s curveball, nicknamed “The Defector,” is inducing swinging strikes 10.2% of the time. Both pitchers get the benefit of the cavernous confines of Marlins Park.

Justin Verlander, DET @ Yu Darvish, TEX

This has all the makings of an incredible game. Two top-ten offenses against two top-five pitchers. Could be a preview of the AL Cy Young ballot.

Matt Cain, SF @ Jhoulys Chacin, COL

Cain has started to turn it around a little as of late, but he is an extreme fly ball pitcher which tends not to play well at Coors Field. Especially when you consider his 16.1% HR/FB rate this year. I might get burned on this one, but I’m not convinced Cain has his best stuff yet. On the other hand, Chacin is quietly putting together a very good season. He’s only given up more than 2 runs once this year.

Jose Quintana, CWS @ Jerome Williams, LAA

I like Quintana, but I feel like the Angels bats are starting to awaken, and if they knock him around a bit, I don’t have any confidence in the White Sox to keep it close.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS @ Edinson Volquez, SD

This is a great matchup for Strasburg to get back on track. Some people are doubting him a bit, but his numbers are almost identical to last year. This should be the first in a string of very good starts from him.
 
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John Fortney breaks down Friday’s best pitching & hitting streamers. This article is part of our series that highlights quality content from fantasy sites. HecmanRoto has been gracious enough to share a weekly article with our users. For additional insight, you can visit HecmanRoto.com.

The Horses

Mike Leake (CIN @ MIA), 6% owned

Mikey gets about the best matchup possible on Wednesday in the Miami Marlins, so realistically I think we can expect a couple of earned runs, 5-6 strikeouts and a win.

Rating:

Ross Detwiler (WAS @ LAD), 44% owned

Detwiler continues to impress this year and I don’t see any reason it doesn’t continue against the Dodgers. Detwiler won’t blow your socks off in any category but he can pitch deep into games and get guys out. The Dodgers collectively hit .214 off of him if that makes you feel any better.

Rating:

The Lumber

Dustin Ackley, 1B/2B, (SEA @ NYY), 26% owned

Ack-man has been getting his stroke going lately and bats .500 against Phil Hughes. I see a nice game coming.

Rating: 

John Jaso, C, (OAK vs. TEX), 5% owned

Jaso is 4 for 5 off Alexi Ogando with a triple. This is as good as it gets if you need to stream a Catcher on Wednesday.
Rating:

Rating System
	Warning: Stream at your own risk.
	A less riskier stream, which is better, I think.
	You can feel pretty safe about this streamer, but not ecstatic.
	Now were talking, stream with confidence baby!
	OMG: A must streamer. Go. Hurry, don’t walk. Run!

 
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Note: This article is part of our series that highlights quality content from premium subscription sites. RotoExperts has been gracious enough to share a weekly article with our users for free. For additional RotoExperts insight, you can visit RotoExperts.com.

A handful of major league bullpens are in flux this week due to injury; about the same number may be in flux this time next week due to performance. Luckily, we’ve got you covered with the names you need to know.  Here is our take on the back of the bullpens this week:

• Arizona: J.J. Putz is injured (I wouldn’t bet on a comeback) and Heath Bell is the closer. Unless you own Heath Bell already, do not pick him up. David Hernandez will be the closer. Bell does not have the skills or conditioning to keep this job. Hernandez has struggled, but owns closer-worthy skills. Keep your eye on Matt Reynolds in case Hernandez does not straighten up. Bell might get you a few more saves, but you can’t count on him as a solid anchor in the back of the pen.

• Cleveland: Chris Perez experienced shoulder stiffness while warming up Sunday and sat out a save chance. When was the last time you read the sentence “Despite shoulder stiffness, Player X went on to shut the door three times this week?” That’s right, you haven’t. Set-up man Vinnie Pestano is injured with elbow tendinitis (I don’t trust any elbow injury). Joe Smith has pitched well, but can’t strike out enough hitters to be the closer. You might want to stash Cody Allen, the 24-year-old rookie – he’s posted 20Ks and  six walks in 16 IP – who picked up the save after Perez’ shoulder issue Sunday. If he can keep his control in check, he could be a good source of saves.

• Boston: Junichi Tazawa is the closer. For now. Joel Hanrahan is out for the season (though he was not closer-worthy anyway); Andrew Bailey *should* return from injury and assume the role, though Tazawa has good skills but hasn’t pitched well lately. Koji Uehara could get a chance should Tazawa struggle and if Bailey is delayed further. Bailey’s forearm issue should keep him out a week and that might be enough time for Tazawa to establish himself as a force. If you own any of these arms, hold them for now, but speculating more than a few days is just a guess.

• Detroit: Jose Valverde blew a save. The first crack. I’m tired of talking about the Tigers bullpen. Just go stash Al Albuquerque. We still think he’s getting the job eventually.

• Tampa Bay: Fernando Rodney has not been great. We’ve downgraded him, but based on Jake McGee’s terrible season thus far, we wouldn’t have much faith in Joel Peralta either.

• Los Angeles: I said Brandon League would lose his job in early May. I was wrong. It will be late May. He’s really scuffling and Kenley Jansen is just flat better. Manager Don Mattingly has already said he’s been thinking about a change.

Confidence Upgrades

• Jim Johnson: Orioles: 85 percent (75 percent last week). I still think he has shaky skills, but he’s been lights-out perfect this year. Can’t argue with success.

• Ernesto Frieri: 80 percent (75 percent last week). He’s been pitching well this week; Ryan Madson is getting closer, but shouldn’t displace him right away.

• Mariano Rivera: 90 percent (85 percent last week). Is there a better athlete in baseball. At age 42, to return from injury and be “even more perfect” is a testament to this Hall-of-Famer. Age may keep him from 95 percent confidence, but that would be about it.

• Casey Janssen: 70 percent (55 percent last week): With Santos still out, there isn’t much behind him and he’s fared well.

Confidence Downgrades

• Craig Kimbrel: 90 percent (98 percent last week).  We think he’s fine, but this long ball issue is a bit puzzling.

• Chris Perez: 35 percent (60 percent last week). Shoulder stiffness plus a good rookie in Cody Allen might spell the beginning of the end here.

• Jose Valverde: 45 percent (60 percent last week): So. Tired. Of. Talking. About. This.

• Brandon League: 25 percent (45 percent last week); As closers go, he’s in a League of his own. The Minor League. If Jansen is available, make it happen today.

Please note we did not upgrade Kevin Gregg in the Cubs bullpen. We won’t and you can’t make us. He’ll get a few more saves, but long-term Kyuji Fujikawa is still the man on the North Side.  I mean we’re talking Kevin Gregg after all. What, did Randy Myers not return your phone calls?

This time next week, we should be talking about three new closers and three more speculative closers for the week ahead. Never a dull moment in baseball.
 

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