Who Should I Draft?

Doug Martin or Arian Foster (2014)

Revise
Expert Pick %
53%
47%
ECR
# 12
# 10
Best
# 6
# 6
Worst
# 31
# 18
Ave Projection (?)
188.1
199.8
Best
198.0
215.5
Worst
177.6
185.9
Expert Pick %
53%
47%
 Staff Rankings
ESPN
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
 Scott Cullen
TSN
Paul Greco
FantasyPros911
 Nathan Jahnke
Pro Football Focus
Huseyin Aksu
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 David Dodds
FootballGuys
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
 Ryan Fowler
Fox Sports
Christopher Harris
ESPN
 Wayne Bretsky
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Sean Morris
Bruno Boys
 Matt Smith
NFL.com
Dave Richard
CBS Sports
 Kyle Wachtel
Forensic Fantasy
Jamey Eisenberg
CBS Sports
 Dennis Esser
Coach Esser
Nathan Miller
Revelation Sports
 David Gonos
DavidGonos.com
Jason Willan
Gridiron Experts
 Staff Composite
Fox Sports
Michael Fabiano
NFL.com
 Matthew Berry
ESPN
Eric Mack
Bleacher Report
 Ryan Hodge
ProjectRoto
Matt Waldman
FootballGuys
 Kevin Hanson
EDSFootball
John Halpin
Fox Sports
 Alessandro Miglio
FootballGuys
Russell Clay
Dynasty League Football
 John Paulsen
4for4.com
Davis Mattek
Sports Wunderkind
 Terrance Bridgett
ProjectRoto
Dawgmatica
Pyromaniac
 Jim McCormick
ESPN
Nate Hodges
Pro Football Focus
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2MugsFF
Walton Spurlin
FantasySharks
 Smitty
Fantasy Football Starters
Brad Evans
Yahoo! Sports
 Nick Vertucci
Sundays Are For Football
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
 Adam Pfeifer
Rant Sports
Zach Greubel
Gridiron Experts
 Jody Smith
Gridiron Experts
Mike Rigz
Gridiron Experts
 Dan Clasgens
Get Sports Info
Matthew Hill
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 Jake Ciely
RotoExperts
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The New York Times
 Maurile Tremblay
FootballGuys
Jeff Haseley
FootballGuys
 Austin Lee
FootballGuys
Zach Wilkens
RotoBaller
 Brian Dezelske
Fake Pigskin
Scott Whitfield
Roto Rankings
 Seth Klein
Fake Pigskin
Adam Meyer
Fox Sports
 Chris Heil
ProjectRoto
Rich Hribar
XN Sports
 Joel Beall
Fox Sports
Jason Longfellow
Razzball
 Jon Collins
Fantasy Sports LR
Tony Mauriello
ProjectRoto
 Staff Rankings
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Gene Wang
The Washington Post
 Brett Talley
The Fantasy Fix
Tommy Rowan
Juan Elway
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Sports Illustrated
Marc Caviglia
Bruno Boys
 Ross Miles
Pro Football Focus
Joseph Dolan
Fantasy Guru
 Micah James
FFMagicMan
Ryan Boser
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NFL.com
Mike Clay
Pro Football Focus
 Jason Smith
NFL.com
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Mike Tagliere
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 Dave Major
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C.D. Carter
XN Sports
 Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
Tom Poisal
Top Tier Football
 Brent Namejko
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Bill Enright
FFChamps
 Adrian Pereira
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R.J. White
Fantasy Football Cafe
 James Hatfield
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Ryan Noonan
The Fantasy Fix
 Sean Beazley
EDSFootball
Ben Standig
CSN Washington
 Jeff Brubach
The Fake Football
Des Bieler
The Washington Post
 Staff Rankings
RosterWatch
Brendan Donahue
EDSFootball
 Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
NFL.com
Greg Smith
The Fake Football
 Raju Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
Staff Composite
Yahoo! Sports
 Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
Doug Orth
FFToday
 Matt De Lima
FFToolbox
Patrick Thorman
Pro Football Focus
 Bryan Fontaine
Pro Football Focus
Neil Parker
Fantasy Sports LR
 Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
 Kelly Smelser
Punch Drunk Wonderland
Dan Yanotchko
EDSFootball
 Ryan Rufe
RotoBaller
Derek Lofland
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 Eric Karabell
ESPN
Chet Gresham
The Fake Football
 Nick Raducanu
ProjectRoto
Tozzi Brothers
Legion Report
 Eddie Cooley
Sundays Are For Football
Pat Fitzmaurice
The Football Girl
 Staff Rankings
KFFL
Jeff Paur
RTSports
 Ken Zalis
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Adam Rank
NFL.com
 Jeff Ratcliffe
Pro Football Focus
Salvatore Stefanile
XN Sports
 Michael Pichan
Fantasy Alarm
 
 Site Rankings
FantasyOMatic
 
 Brandon Funston
Yahoo! Sports
 
 Staff Rankings
DavidGonos.com
 
 Mike Harmon
Swollen Dome
 
 Cedric Hopkins
Field & Court
 
 Steve Olson
StatSims
 
 Marcus Grant
NFL.com
 
 Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
 
ECR
# 12
# 10
Best
# 6
# 6
Worst
# 31
# 18
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
24
6
Paul Greco
FantasyPros911
10
6
Huseyin Aksu
Fantasy Couch
13
6
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
16
7
Christopher Harris
ESPN
12
7
Sean Morris
Bruno Boys
17
7
Dave Richard
CBS Sports
14
8
Jamey Eisenberg
CBS Sports
14
8
Nathan Miller
Revelation Sports
13
8
Jason Willan
Gridiron Experts
11
8
Michael Fabiano
NFL.com
11
8
Eric Mack
Bleacher Report
16
8
Matt Waldman
FootballGuys
9
8
Staff Rankings
ESPN
7
8
John Halpin
Fox Sports
10
8
Russell Clay
Dynasty League Football
21
8
Davis Mattek
Sports Wunderkind
32
8
Scott Cullen
TSN
4
8
Dawgmatica
Pyromaniac
15
8
Nate Hodges
Pro Football Focus
14
9
Nathan Jahnke
Pro Football Focus
7
9
Walton Spurlin
FantasySharks
15
9
Brad Evans
Yahoo! Sports
12
9
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
12
9
Zach Greubel
Gridiron Experts
14
9
Mike Rigz
Gridiron Experts
11
9
Matthew Hill
Fantasy Team Advice
14
9
Sablich Brothers
The New York Times
12
9
Jeff Haseley
FootballGuys
14
9
David Dodds
FootballGuys
6
9
Zach Wilkens
RotoBaller
11
9
Scott Whitfield
Roto Rankings
12
9
Ryan Fowler
Fox Sports
8
9
Adam Meyer
Fox Sports
11
9
Rich Hribar
XN Sports
11
9
Jason Longfellow
Razzball
19
9
Tony Mauriello
ProjectRoto
19
9
Gene Wang
The Washington Post
12
9
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
7
9
Tommy Rowan
Juan Elway
14
9
Marc Caviglia
Bruno Boys
16
9
Joseph Dolan
Fantasy Guru
18
9
Ryan Boser
LeagueSafePost
15
9
Mike Clay
Pro Football Focus
11
10
Staff Rankings
FFLockerRoom
12
10
Matt Smith
NFL.com
8
10
Kyle Wachtel
Forensic Fantasy
8
10
Mike Tagliere
Tags Fantasy Football
11
10
Justin Boone
The Score
11
10
Dennis Esser
Coach Esser
9
10
David Gonos
DavidGonos.com
8
10
Staff Composite
Fox Sports
9
10
Mike Krueger
FFToday
14
10
Staff Rankings
Fantasy Knuckleheads
12
10
C.D. Carter
XN Sports
21
10
Tom Poisal
Top Tier Football
13
10
Bill Enright
FFChamps
17
10
Matthew Berry
ESPN
7
10
R.J. White
Fantasy Football Cafe
14
10
Ryan Noonan
The Fantasy Fix
11
10
Ryan Hodge
ProjectRoto
9
10
Ben Standig
CSN Washington
17
10
Des Bieler
The Washington Post
12
10
Kevin Hanson
EDSFootball
10
11
Brendan Donahue
EDSFootball
12
11
Greg Smith
The Fake Football
12
11
Staff Composite
Yahoo! Sports
12
11
Alessandro Miglio
FootballGuys
10
11
John Paulsen
4for4.com
10
11
Doug Orth
FFToday
14
11
Terrance Bridgett
ProjectRoto
8
11
Jim McCormick
ESPN
9
11
Staff Rankings
2MugsFF
9
11
Smitty
Fantasy Football Starters
10
11
Nick Vertucci
Sundays Are For Football
10
12
Patrick Thorman
Pro Football Focus
13
12
Adam Pfeifer
Rant Sports
9
12
Jody Smith
Gridiron Experts
8
12
Dan Clasgens
Get Sports Info
11
12
Jake Ciely
RotoExperts
9
12
Maurile Tremblay
FootballGuys
10
12
Austin Lee
FootballGuys
11
12
Brian Dezelske
Fake Pigskin
11
12
Seth Klein
Fake Pigskin
9
12
Chris Heil
ProjectRoto
11
12
Joel Beall
Fox Sports
5
12
Neil Parker
Fantasy Sports LR
13
12
Jon Collins
Fantasy Sports LR
8
12
Staff Rankings
FFToolbox
11
12
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
15
12
Brett Talley
The Fantasy Fix
10
12
Staff Composite
Sports Illustrated
10
12
Dan Yanotchko
EDSFootball
14
13
Derek Lofland
Fantasy Football Maniax
31
13
Ross Miles
Pro Football Focus
12
13
Chet Gresham
The Fake Football
14
13
Micah James
FFMagicMan
8
13
Staff Composite
NFL.com
12
13
Jason Smith
NFL.com
7
13
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
12
13
Addison Witt
Fantasy Team Advice
11
13
Sigmund Bloom
FootballGuys
9
13
Bob Henry
FootballGuys
10
13
Tozzi Brothers
Legion Report
17
13
Pat Fitzmaurice
The Football Girl
15
13
Dave Major
XN Sports
10
13
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
11
13
Brent Namejko
Fantasy Smack Talk
10
13
Adrian Pereira
eDraft
8
13
Jeff Paur
RTSports
14
13
James Hatfield
Hatty Waiver Wire Guru
12
14
Sean Beazley
EDSFootball
7
14
Jeff Brubach
The Fake Football
11
14
Staff Rankings
RosterWatch
12
14
Adam Rank
NFL.com
27
14
Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
NFL.com
13
14
Raju Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
7
14
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
6
14
Matt De Lima
FFToolbox
9
14
Bryan Fontaine
Pro Football Focus
10
15
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
13
15
Kelly Smelser
Punch Drunk Wonderland
9
15
Ryan Rufe
RotoBaller
9
15
Salvatore Stefanile
XN Sports
17
15
Eric Karabell
ESPN
7
15
Nick Raducanu
ProjectRoto
14
15
Eddie Cooley
Sundays Are For Football
6
16
Staff Rankings
KFFL
8
16
Ken Zalis
Fans Fantasy Football
14
16
Jeff Ratcliffe
Pro Football Focus
8
17
Michael Pichan
Fantasy Alarm
12
17
Site Rankings
FantasyOMatic
7
17
Brandon Funston
Yahoo! Sports
12
18
Staff Rankings
DavidGonos.com
12
18
Mike Harmon
Swollen Dome
17
18
Cedric Hopkins
Field & Court
9
19
Steve Olson
StatSims
16
19
Marcus Grant
NFL.com
8
21
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
11
23
Ave Projection (?)
188.1
199.8
Best
198.0
215.5
Worst
177.6
185.9
Rush Yards
1100.5
1188.9
Rush TDs
6.3
7.7
Receptions
43.8
40.8
Rec Yards
346.3
297.3
Rec TDs
1.6
1.5
Ave Targets / Game
2.2
1.5
Total Targets
35.0
24.0
Sablich Brothers
The New York Times
Recent hamstring issue a reminder he struggled with injuries last summer/season.
Clear cut bell cow back with injuries to Sims and James.
  
Staff Rankings
FFLockerRoom
Coming off of back surgery, it's hard to predict what kind of player Foster will be in 2014. His high volume of work in recent seasons gives you concern but if you can get him as the 15th back off the board or close, I wouldn't hesitate.
A lot of people are going to reach for Martin but the emergence of Mike James, showed me how bad Martin was during the first half of the season. Buyer beware.
  
Staff Rankings
2MugsFF
 
Bumping him up into 2nd tier. Going to touch the rock a lot.
  
Smitty
Fantasy Football Starters
There is some risk here, no question, but there is also a grip of upside. Don't draft Foster much higher than his ADP at all, as it's the low ADP right now that has Foster looking like somewhat low-risk and high-reward.
With Sims, the rookie, suffering injury, the threat of RBBC has quickly vanished. Martin's ADP hasn't rebounded since those threats, though, which is great news for those looking for a low-end RB1 outside of the top 20 overall.
  
Jon Collins
Fantasy Sports LR
Another hammy issue in camp is troubling for Foster, who can't seem to stay healthy. Nevertheless, if he gives owners 16 games he is a bargain at the end of round one.
 
  
Derek Lofland
Fantasy Football Maniax
Foster is someone that I will not own this year. He has too big of a name to last long enough in drafts for me to take a flyer on him. He's coming off a disappointing season that was cut short by a back injury and he already has missed time in training camp with a hamstring injury. He also did not play in one preseason game, presumably because he was not healthy enough or the Texans were scared he would aggravate the injury. I have no faith he can stay healthy in 2014. I view him as a low end flex value at this point in his career.
I think Martin will have a bounce back season in Lovie Smith's run oriented offense. I also do not view the torn labrum injury that cut his season short as an injury as that screams injury prone. I have lowered him in my rankings due to a Buccaneers offensive line that has been awful at run blocking in the preseason. Trading for G Logan Mankins will help, but quick fixes don't usually work on the offensive line.
  
Chet Gresham
The Fake Football
What to do with Foster? We know his upside. There's no doubting it. Of course we also know he's been having injury issues and he's hard to trust. It will be tough to pass on his upside if he falls to the late second round in any of your drafts though.
Muscle Hamster's stock has fallen a bit with talk of his role being reduced, but I see Tedford upping the run game and that should compensate for any spreading out of touches for the running backs. Martin is still a top tier player.
  
Tozzi Brothers
Legion Report
Injuries are a major concern for the talented RB with an ADP in Round 2. It's unlikely he'll stay on the field for all 17 games this season. Draft at your own risk. Foster’s 2013 Season was cut short by injury as he only netted 8 Games, however it is evident that he can still produce as he averaged 4.5 YPC. At age 27, Foster still has the capabilities to produce at an alarming rate and he will most certainly slip through the cracks come fantasy draft day. If drafting Foster, you will want to surround him with other quality RBs as his health is such a continuous question mark. Andre Brown is also a handcuff must. We like Foster and think he will have every opportunity to turn out monster numbers, but his durability is why we have slid him back in our rankings.
Tampa Bay is coupled with a very questionable Offensive line along with a brand new OC, Jeff Tedford that has never coached in the NFL before. Tedford has been at coaching at Cal the past 10 seasons, so it’s hard to suggest what his offense will exactly look like . ESPN Bucs reporter says “the Bucs want to use a rotation at the RB position this season,” as both new head coach Lovie Smith and Jeff Tedford are very fond of. “One running back just can’t make it through the season,” says Smith. The new regime in Tampa are not the ones who drafted Doug Martin, but they are the ones who spent a Top 70 pick on receiving back Charles Sims. Lovie Smith remains committed to Doug Martin being big part of their offense, but expect Charles Sims to replace him on passing downs while Rainey and James are also mixed within the Running Back Committee.
  
Pat Fitzmaurice
The Football Girl
Outstanding when healthy, but his fragility scares me to death.
A hard guy to peg. Tampa O-line has taken hits.
  
James Hatfield
Hatty Waiver Wire Guru
When you draft Foster you draft for his incredible upside. He is 28 and coming off back surgery, and he also considered retirement so it's hard to recommend him as a target to draft in 2014.
He is a forgotten RB except if you were burned last year by his injury. He will slip in drafts, but his amazing upside can not be overlooked.
  
Raju Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
Will push for top five by draft day
Doug Martin probably belongs in tier three for now but as an ‘old regime’ back who has to deal with a very impressive rookie in Charles Sims, who is already a better receiver out of the backfield and who is a more exciting runner, he gets knocked down a tier due to his forecasted value hit.
  
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
Foster was a downer in 2013 but he's a prime bounce back candidate. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, Houston will have to be run heavy to compete.
The talent is there but that huge role may not be. He should still be a threat for the top-5.
  
Brandon Funston
Yahoo! Sports
With hammy already taking a bite out of his preseason, he's a tough draft-day pill to swallow - my vibes about him are getting increasingly negative.
Workload no longer much of a concern with rookie RB Smis injured; 27% of career fantasy PTS came in 2 of his 22 games played