Who Should I Draft?

Doug Martin or Arian Foster (2014)

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Arian Foster
Arian Foster HOU

Questionable - Hip
Expert Pick %
57%
43%
ECR
# 8
# 10
Best
# 4
# 1
Worst
# 23
# 33
Ave Projection (?)
8.1
15.6
Best
13.7
18.4
Worst
6.0
13.0
Expert Pick %
57%
43%
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XN Sports
 
ECR
# 8
# 10
Best
# 4
# 1
Worst
# 23
# 33
Steve Olson
StatSims
4
26
Site Projections
scoutPRO
4
8
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
6
33
Michael Pichan
Fantasy Alarm
6
7
Paul Greco
FantasyPros911
6
10
Huseyin Aksu
Fantasy Couch
6
13
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
7
15
Christopher Harris
ESPN
7
12
Addison Witt
Fantasy Team Advice
7
14
Scott Whitfield
Roto Rankings
7
12
Sean Morris
Bruno Boys
7
15
Dave Richard
CBS Sports
8
14
Jamey Eisenberg
CBS Sports
8
14
Staff Rankings
FFLockerRoom
8
15
Nathan Miller
Revelation Sports
8
13
Jason Willan
Gridiron Experts
8
11
Michael Fabiano
NFL.com
8
11
Eric Mack
Bleacher Report
8
16
Matt Waldman
FootballGuys
8
9
Zach Wilkens
RotoBaller
8
11
Staff Rankings
ESPN
8
7
John Halpin
Fox Sports
8
10
Nick Raducanu
ProjectRoto
8
12
The FFGhost
Dynasty League Football
8
14
Russell Clay
Dynasty League Football
8
25
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
8
7
Davis Mattek
Sports Wunderkind
8
32
Scott Cullen
TSN
8
4
Dawgmatica
Pyromaniac
8
15
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
8
1
Mike Clay
Pro Football Focus
9
10
Bryan Fontaine
Pro Football Focus
9
12
Nate Hodges
Pro Football Focus
9
14
Patrick Thorman
Pro Football Focus
9
14
Walton Spurlin
FantasySharks
9
15
Brad Evans
Yahoo! Sports
9
12
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
9
11
Zach Greubel
Gridiron Experts
9
14
Mike Rigz
Gridiron Experts
9
11
Matthew Hill
Fantasy Team Advice
9
14
Jake Ciely
RotoExperts
9
12
Sablich Brothers
The New York Times
9
11
Jeff Haseley
FootballGuys
9
14
David Dodds
FootballGuys
9
6
Justin Boone
The Score
9
10
Tozzi Brothers
Legion Report
9
19
Ryan Fowler
Fox Sports
9
8
Adam Meyer
Fox Sports
9
11
Rich Hribar
XN Sports
9
11
Matt De Lima
FFToolbox
9
13
Matthew Berry
ESPN
9
7
Jason Longfellow
Razzball
9
19
Ryan Noonan
The Fantasy Fix
9
10
Tony Mauriello
ProjectRoto
9
19
Tommy Rowan
Juan Elway
9
14
Marc Caviglia
Bruno Boys
9
16
Joseph Dolan
Fantasy Guru
9
19
Ryan Boser
LeagueSafePost
9
15
Adam Pfeifer
ProjectRoto
10
9
Matt Smith
NFL.com
10
8
Adam Rank
NFL.com
10
30
Kyle Wachtel
Forensic Fantasy
10
8
Mike Tagliere
Tags Fantasy Football
10
11
Ryan Rufe
RotoBaller
10
9
John Paulsen
4for4.com
10
11
Dennis Esser
Coach Esser
10
9
David Gonos
DavidGonos.com
10
8
Staff Composite
Fox Sports
10
9
Mike Krueger
FFToday
10
14
Doug Orth
FFToday
10
14
Staff Rankings
Fantasy Knuckleheads
10
12
C.D. Carter
XN Sports
10
21
Tom Poisal
Top Tier Football
10
13
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
10
17
Bill Enright
FFChamps
10
13
R.J. White
Fantasy Football Cafe
10
14
Joshua Kay
The Fantasy Fix
10
13
Terrance Bridgett
ProjectRoto
11
15
Ryan Hodge
ProjectRoto
10
9
Ben Standig
CSN Washington
10
16
Des Bieler
The Washington Post
10
12
Russ Bliss
Fantasy Football Starters
10
12
Emil Kadlec
Football Diehards
10
12
Kevin Hanson
EDSFootball
11
10
Brendan Donahue
EDSFootball
11
12
Ross Miles
Pro Football Focus
11
10
Jeff Ratcliffe
Pro Football Focus
11
13
Nathan Jahnke
Pro Football Focus
11
10
Greg Smith
The Fake Football
11
12
Staff Composite
Yahoo! Sports
11
12
Micah James
FFMagicMan
11
8
Raju Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
11
7
Alessandro Miglio
FootballGuys
11
10
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
11
6
Antonio DArcangelis
FFToday
11
16
Jim McCormick
ESPN
11
9
Staff Rankings
2MugsFF
11
9
Smitty
Fantasy Football Starters
11
10
Site Rankings
Bloomberg Sports
11
8
Nick Vertucci
Sundays Are For Football
12
10
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
12
14
Jody Smith
Gridiron Experts
12
8
Staff Composite
NFL.com
12
13
Dan Clasgens
Get Sports Info
12
11
Bob Henry
FootballGuys
12
10
Maurile Tremblay
FootballGuys
12
10
Austin Lee
FootballGuys
12
13
Brian Dezelske
Fake Pigskin
12
11
Seth Klein
Razzball
12
9
Chris Heil
Sportable
12
11
Joel Beall
Fox Sports
12
5
Neil Parker
Fantasy Sports LR
12
13
Jon Collins
Fantasy Sports LR
12
8
Staff Rankings
FFToolbox
12
11
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
12
15
Brett Talley
The Fantasy Fix
12
10
Jeff Paur
RTSports
12
13
Staff Composite
Sports Illustrated
12
10
Dan Yanotchko
EDSFootball
13
16
Derek Lofland
Fantasy Football Maniax
13
31
Chet Gresham
The Fake Football
13
14
Jason Smith
NFL.com
13
7
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
13
12
Sigmund Bloom
FootballGuys
13
9
Pat Fitzmaurice
The Football Girl
13
15
Ken Zalis
Pressbox
13
15
Dave Major
XN Sports
13
10
Brent Namejko
Fantasy Smack Talk
13
9
Adrian Pereira
eDraft
13
8
Gene Wang
The Washington Post
13
10
James Hatfield
Hatty Waiver Wire Guru
14
12
Sean Beazley
EDSFootball
14
7
Jeff Brubach
The Fake Football
14
11
Staff Rankings
RosterWatch
14
12
Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
NFL.com
14
13
Staff
Roto Analysis
14
10
Cory Bonini
USA Today
14
12
Salvatore Stefanile
XN Sports
15
18
Eric Karabell
ESPN
15
7
Eddie Cooley
Sundays Are For Football
16
6
Staff Rankings
KFFL
16
8
Jeff Collins
Fantasy Contrarians
16
8
Site Rankings
FantasyOMatic
17
7
Staff Rankings
DavidGonos.com
18
12
Mike Harmon
Swollen Dome
18
17
Kelly Smelser
Punch Drunk Wonderland
19
10
Cedric Hopkins
Field & Court
19
9
Marcus Grant
NFL.com
21
8
Brandon Funston
Yahoo! Sports
23
7
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
23
11
Ave Projection (?)
8.1
15.6
Best
13.7
18.4
Worst
6.0
13.0
Rush Yards
54.6
79.1
Rush TDs
0.3
0.8
Receptions
1.7
3.7
Rec Yards
9.9
28.4
Rec TDs
0.0
0.0
Ave Targets / Game
4.0
4.4
Total Targets
24.0
35.0
Staff Rankings
FFLockerRoom
A lot of people are going to reach for Martin but the emergence of Mike James, showed me how bad Martin was during the first half of the season. Buyer beware.
Coming off of back surgery, it's hard to predict what kind of player Foster will be in 2014. His high volume of work in recent seasons gives you concern but if you can get him as the 15th back off the board or close, I wouldn't hesitate.
  
Sablich Brothers
The New York Times
Clear cut bell cow back with injuries to Sims and James.
Recent hamstring issue a reminder he struggled with injuries last summer/season.
  
Tozzi Brothers
Legion Report
Tampa Bay is coupled with a very questionable Offensive line along with a brand new OC, Jeff Tedford that has never coached in the NFL before. Tedford has been at coaching at Cal the past 10 seasons, so it’s hard to suggest what his offense will exactly look like . ESPN Bucs reporter says “the Bucs want to use a rotation at the RB position this season,” as both new head coach Lovie Smith and Jeff Tedford are very fond of. “One running back just can’t make it through the season,” says Smith. The new regime in Tampa are not the ones who drafted Doug Martin, but they are the ones who spent a Top 70 pick on receiving back Charles Sims. Lovie Smith remains committed to Doug Martin being big part of their offense, but expect Charles Sims to replace him on passing downs while Rainey and James are also mixed within the Running Back Committee.
Injuries are a major concern for the talented RB with an ADP in Round 2. It's unlikely he'll stay on the field for all 17 games this season. Draft at your own risk. Foster’s 2013 Season was cut short by injury as he only netted 8 Games, however it is evident that he can still produce as he averaged 4.5 YPC. At age 27, Foster still has the capabilities to produce at an alarming rate and he will most certainly slip through the cracks come fantasy draft day. If drafting Foster, you will want to surround him with other quality RBs as his health is such a continuous question mark. Andre Brown is also a handcuff must. We like Foster and think he will have every opportunity to turn out monster numbers, but his durability is why we have slid him back in our rankings.
  
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
Played in only 6 games last season due to a torn labrum in his shoulder. Look for Martin's workload to diminish this season as Tampa Bay drafted Charles Sims in round 3 to give Martin a breather on occasions during passing downs. Martin should be drafted as a RB2 with RB1 upside. Tampa wants to rotate their RBs this year.
Played in only 8 games in 2013. Look for new Texans coach, Bill O'Brien, to get Foster the ball on the ground and by air this season. He will be the work horse, but can he stay healthy all season? He will benefit now that Ben Tate is in Cleveland. View Foster more as a RB2 with RB1 upside.
  
Raju Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
Doug Martin probably belongs in tier three for now but as an ‘old regime’ back who has to deal with a very impressive rookie in Charles Sims, who is already a better receiver out of the backfield and who is a more exciting runner, he gets knocked down a tier due to his forecasted value hit.
Will push for top five by draft day
  
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
The talent is there but that huge role may not be. He should still be a threat for the top-5.
Foster was a downer in 2013 but he's a prime bounce back candidate. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, Houston will have to be run heavy to compete.
  
Staff Rankings
2MugsFF
Bumping him up into 2nd tier. Going to touch the rock a lot.
 
  
Smitty
Fantasy Football Starters
With Sims, the rookie, suffering injury, the threat of RBBC has quickly vanished. Martin's ADP hasn't rebounded since those threats, though, which is great news for those looking for a low-end RB1 outside of the top 20 overall.
There is some risk here, no question, but there is also a grip of upside. Don't draft Foster much higher than his ADP at all, as it's the low ADP right now that has Foster looking like somewhat low-risk and high-reward.
  
Jon Collins
Fantasy Sports LR
 
Another hammy issue in camp is troubling for Foster, who can't seem to stay healthy. Nevertheless, if he gives owners 16 games he is a bargain at the end of round one.
  
Derek Lofland
Fantasy Football Maniax
I think Martin will have a bounce back season in Lovie Smith's run oriented offense. I also do not view the torn labrum injury that cut his season short as an injury as that screams injury prone. I have lowered him in my rankings due to a Buccaneers offensive line that has been awful at run blocking in the preseason. Trading for G Logan Mankins will help, but quick fixes don't usually work on the offensive line.
Foster is someone that I will not own this year. He has too big of a name to last long enough in drafts for me to take a flyer on him. He's coming off a disappointing season that was cut short by a back injury and he already has missed time in training camp with a hamstring injury. He also did not play in one preseason game, presumably because he was not healthy enough or the Texans were scared he would aggravate the injury. I have no faith he can stay healthy in 2014. I view him as a low end flex value at this point in his career.
  
Chet Gresham
The Fake Football
Muscle Hamster's stock has fallen a bit with talk of his role being reduced, but I see Tedford upping the run game and that should compensate for any spreading out of touches for the running backs. Martin is still a top tier player.
What to do with Foster? We know his upside. There's no doubting it. Of course we also know he's been having injury issues and he's hard to trust. It will be tough to pass on his upside if he falls to the late second round in any of your drafts though.
  
Pat Fitzmaurice
The Football Girl
A hard guy to peg. Tampa O-line has taken hits.
Outstanding when healthy, but his fragility scares me to death.
  
James Hatfield
Hatty Waiver Wire Guru
He is a forgotten RB except if you were burned last year by his injury. He will slip in drafts, but his amazing upside can not be overlooked.
When you draft Foster you draft for his incredible upside. He is 28 and coming off back surgery, and he also considered retirement so it's hard to recommend him as a target to draft in 2014.
  
Brandon Funston
Yahoo! Sports
Workload no longer much of a concern with rookie RB Smis injured; 27% of career fantasy PTS came in 2 of his 22 games played
Hammy checked out fine in W1 (29 touches, 120 YFS); Workload, last-place schedule will pay big if health holds