Who Should I Draft?

Montee Ball or Giovani Bernard (2015)

Montee Ball
Montee Ball (DEN - RB)
 
Giovani Bernard
Giovani Bernard (CIN - RB)
0%
Expert Pick %
100%
54
ECR
27
42
Best Rank
20
79
Worst Rank
36
81.5
Ave Projection
128.2
101.9
Best
137.8
49.8
Worst
124.1
0%
Expert Pick %
100%

No experts recommend Montee Ball over Giovani Bernard

 
0%
Expert Pick %
100%
54
ECR
27
42
Best Rank
20
79
Worst Rank
36
2.6
Ave Targets / Game
4.5
13.0
Total Targets
59.0
Will Montee Ball get a chance this year? I think he will. That Denver backfield always has a way of changing midstream and the guy you thought was going to be the guy ends up not. Ball will most likely be a popular handcuff.

- Tom Schriner, FFLockerRoom

 
Ball has plummeted in the ranks and rightfully so. Has value if he's the top backup behind CJ Anderson, of course.

- Kevin Roberts, Breaking Football

Jeremy Hill is crushing Gio's upside, rendering him more of a PPR option. He still has value as a potential top-20 guy after finishing 18th last year.

- Kevin Roberts, Breaking Football

I feel good about C.J. Anderson as the main man in Denver, but with the way that offense looks like it will play out, whoever is running the ball there will put up good numbers. Montee Ball is probably going a bit earlier than I want as a bench warmer to start the season, but his upside if he were to fins his way into the starting position is too good to ignore.

- Chet Gresham, WalterFootball

Jeremy Hill is the main man in Cincinnati now, but Bernard should still see plenty of work in the passing game as Hue Jackson uses his running backs often. He of course gets a boost in PPR, but we know he has a role and that sometimes is hard to find as we get further into the RB ranks.

- Chet Gresham, WalterFootball

Ball was a colossal bust last season, and isn't expected to challenge Anderson for featured carries.

- Sablich Brothers, The NY Times

Proven more effective in a complementary role to Hill. A capable low end RB2 in PPR settings.

- Sablich Brothers, The NY Times

 
I have Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard ranked lower than most fantasy experts due to the time share and volatility. I took a look last year at their fantasy points per game and uncovered some interesting statistics. Hill had 171 fantasy points, averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game, and had a standard deviation of 8.1 fantasy points. Giovani Bernard had 132 fantasy points, averaged 8.3 fantasy points per game, and had a standard deviation of 7.2 fantasy points. Note that Bernard missed weeks 9-11 with a hip injury. If we exclude Bernard's 3 week's he missed due to injury, Bernard averaged 10.2 fantasy points per game, with a standard deviation of 6.6 fantasy points. So when comparing Hill to Bernard, we are talking 10.7 fantasy points per game versus 10.2 fantasy points per game. The team might ride the hot hand on a weekly basis, limiting both RBs in some weeks. Both RBs are great, but from a fantasy perspective, their greatness may reduce their overall individual fantasy value this season.

- Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Football Empire

 
Bernard still finished as the 18th ranked fantasy running back, despite losing a ton of touches to Hill in the second half of the season. I still think Bernard has flex value and he has upside if Hill were to regress or suffer an injury in 2015.

- Derek Lofland, Fantasy Football Maniax