Who Should I Draft?

Arian Foster or Doug Martin (2014)

Revise
Arian Foster
Arian Foster HOU

Probable - Hamstring
Expert Pick %
57%
43%
ECR
# 9
# 11
Best
# 4
# 1
Worst
# 23
# 33
Ave Projection (?)
11.6
14.1
Best
14.6
16.0
Worst
7.8
12.5
Expert Pick %
57%
43%
 Michael Pichan
Fantasy Alarm
Muntradamus
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ProjectRoto
Scott Cullen
TSN
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Fox Sports
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FootballGuys
Eddie Cooley
Sundays Are For Football
 Mike Clay
Pro Football Focus
David Dodds
FootballGuys
 Justin Boone
The Score
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
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Fox Sports
Sean Beazley
EDSFootball
 Ryan Noonan
The Fantasy Fix
Brandon Funston
Yahoo! Sports
 Paul Greco
Paul Greco Sports
Jason Smith
NFL.com
 Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
Raju Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
 Mike Rigz
Gridiron Experts
Staff Rankings
ESPN
 Jason Willan
Gridiron Experts
Eric Karabell
ESPN
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NFL.com
Matthew Berry
ESPN
 Sablich Brothers
The NY Times
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
 Mike Tagliere
Tags Fantasy Football
Site Rankings
FantasyOMatic
 Zach Wilkens
RotoBaller
Micah James
FFMagicMan
 John Paulsen
4for4.com
Jody Smith
Gridiron Experts
 Adam Meyer
Fox Sports
Matt Smith
NFL.com
 Rich Hribar
XN Sports
Marcus Grant
NFL.com
 Brendan Donahue
EDSFootball
Kyle Wachtel
Forensic Fantasy
 Bryan Fontaine
RotoGrinders

 Greg Smith
The Fake Football
David Gonos
DavidGonos.com
 Brad Evans
Yahoo! Sports
Ryan Fowler
Fox Sports
 Staff Composite
Yahoo! Sports
Jon Collins
Fantasy Sports LR
 Christopher Harris
ESPN
Adrian Pereira
eDraft
 Jake Ciely
RotoExperts
Jeff Collins
Fantasy Contrarians
 Scott Whitfield
Roto Rankings
Sean Koerner
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Adam Pfeifer
ProjectRoto
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ProjectRoto
Sigmund Bloom
FootballGuys
 Des Bieler
The Washington Post
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Ryan Rufe
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Football Diehards
Dennis Esser
Coach Esser
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Staff Composite
Fox Sports
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Revelation Sports
Jim McCormick
ESPN
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NFL.com
Brent Namejko
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 Austin Lee
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Ryan Hodge
ProjectRoto
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Fantasy Sports LR
Cedric Hopkins
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Staff Rankings
2MugsFF
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Nick Vertucci
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Kevin Hanson
EDSFootball
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The Fantasy Fix
Ross Miles
Pro Football Focus
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Nathan Jahnke
Pro Football Focus
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RTSports
Kelly Smelser
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CBS Sports
Bob Henry
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CBS Sports
Maurile Tremblay
FootballGuys
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Pro Football Focus
Alessandro Miglio
FootballGuys
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Dave Major
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The Fake Football
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The Fantasy Fix
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Yahoo! Sports
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The Washington Post
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Smitty
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Fantasy Team Advice
Staff
Roto Analysis
 Jeff Haseley
FootballGuys
Jeff Brubach
The Fake Football
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Get Sports Info
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Sportable
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USA Today
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The Fantasy Fix
Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
NFL.com
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Pyromaniac
 
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FFToday
 
 Ben Standig
CSN Washington
 
 Marc Caviglia
Bruno Boys
 
 Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
 
 Salvatore Stefanile
XN Sports
 
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Legion Report
 
 Jason Longfellow
Razzball
 
 Tony Mauriello
ProjectRoto
 
 Joseph Dolan
Fantasy Guru
 
 C.D. Carter
XN Sports
 
 Russell Clay
Dynasty League Football
 
 Steve Olson
StatSims
 
 Adam Rank
NFL.com
 
 Derek Lofland
Fantasy Football Maniax
 
 Davis Mattek
Sports Wunderkind
 
 KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
 
ECR
# 9
# 11
Best
# 4
# 1
Worst
# 23
# 33
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
8
1
Scott Cullen
TSN
8
4
Joel Beall
Fox Sports
12
5
Eddie Cooley
Sundays Are For Football
16
6
David Dodds
FootballGuys
9
6
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
11
6
Sean Beazley
EDSFootball
14
7
Brandon Funston
Yahoo! Sports
23
7
Jason Smith
NFL.com
13
7
Raju Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
11
7
Michael Pichan
Fantasy Alarm
6
7
Staff Rankings
ESPN
8
7
Eric Karabell
ESPN
15
7
Matthew Berry
ESPN
9
7
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
8
7
Site Rankings
FantasyOMatic
17
7
Micah James
FFMagicMan
11
8
Jody Smith
Gridiron Experts
12
8
Matt Smith
NFL.com
10
8
Marcus Grant
NFL.com
21
8
Kyle Wachtel
Forensic Fantasy
10
8

16
8
David Gonos
DavidGonos.com
10
8
Ryan Fowler
Fox Sports
9
8
Jon Collins
Fantasy Sports LR
12
8
Terrance Bridgett
ProjectRoto
11
15
Adrian Pereira
eDraft
13
8
Jeff Collins
Fantasy Contrarians
16
8
Sean Koerner
STATS
11
8
Site Projections
scoutPRO
4
8
Adam Pfeifer
ProjectRoto
10
9
Sigmund Bloom
FootballGuys
13
9
Matt Waldman
FootballGuys
8
9
Seth Klein
Razzball
12
9
Ryan Rufe
RotoBaller
10
9
Dennis Esser
Coach Esser
10
9
Staff Composite
Fox Sports
10
9
Jim McCormick
ESPN
11
9
Brent Namejko
Fantasy Smack Talk
13
9
Ryan Hodge
ProjectRoto
10
9
Cedric Hopkins
Field & Court
19
9
Staff Rankings
2MugsFF
11
9
Nick Vertucci
Sundays Are For Football
12
10
Kevin Hanson
EDSFootball
11
10
Mike Clay
Pro Football Focus
9
10
Ross Miles
Pro Football Focus
11
10
Nathan Jahnke
Pro Football Focus
11
10
Kelly Smelser
Punch Drunk Wonderland
19
10
Bob Henry
FootballGuys
12
10
Maurile Tremblay
FootballGuys
12
10
Alessandro Miglio
FootballGuys
11
10
Justin Boone
The Score
9
10
John Halpin
Fox Sports
8
10
Dave Major
XN Sports
13
10
Brett Talley
The Fantasy Fix
12
10
Ryan Noonan
The Fantasy Fix
9
10
Gene Wang
The Washington Post
13
10
Paul Greco
Paul Greco Sports
6
10
Staff Composite
Sports Illustrated
12
10
Smitty
Fantasy Football Starters
11
10
Staff
Roto Analysis
14
10
Jeff Brubach
The Fake Football
14
11
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
9
11
Mike Rigz
Gridiron Experts
9
11
Jason Willan
Gridiron Experts
8
11
Michael Fabiano
NFL.com
8
11
Dan Clasgens
Get Sports Info
12
11
Sablich Brothers
The NY Times
9
11
Mike Tagliere
Tags Fantasy Football
10
11
Brian Dezelske
Fake Pigskin
12
11
Chris Heil
Sportable
12
11
Zach Wilkens
RotoBaller
8
11
John Paulsen
4for4.com
10
11
Adam Meyer
Fox Sports
9
11
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
23
11
Rich Hribar
XN Sports
9
11
Staff Rankings
FFToolbox
12
11
James Hatfield
Hatty Waiver Wire Guru
14
12
Brendan Donahue
EDSFootball
11
12
Bryan Fontaine
RotoGrinders
9
12
Greg Smith
The Fake Football
11
12
Staff Rankings
RosterWatch
14
12
Brad Evans
Yahoo! Sports
9
12
Staff Composite
Yahoo! Sports
11
12
Christopher Harris
ESPN
7
12
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
13
12
Jake Ciely
RotoExperts
9
12
Scott Whitfield
Roto Rankings
7
12
Staff Rankings
DavidGonos.com
18
12
Staff Rankings
Fantasy Knuckleheads
10
12
Nick Raducanu
ProjectRoto
8
12
Des Bieler
The Washington Post
10
12
Russ Bliss
Fantasy Football Starters
10
12
Emil Kadlec
Football Diehards
10
12
Cory Bonini
USA Today
14
12
Jeff Ratcliffe
Pro Football Focus
11
13
Nathan Miller
Revelation Sports
8
13
Staff Composite
NFL.com
12
13
Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
NFL.com
14
13
Austin Lee
FootballGuys
12
13
Neil Parker
Fantasy Sports LR
12
13
Tom Poisal
Top Tier Football
10
13
Bill Enright
FFChamps
10
13
Matt De Lima
FFToolbox
9
13
Joshua Kay
The Fantasy Fix
10
13
Huseyin Aksu
Fantasy Couch
6
13
Jeff Paur
RTSports
12
13
Dave Richard
CBS Sports
8
14
Jamey Eisenberg
CBS Sports
8
14
Nate Hodges
Pro Football Focus
9
14
Patrick Thorman
Pro Football Focus
9
14
Chet Gresham
The Fake Football
13
14
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
12
14
Zach Greubel
Gridiron Experts
9
14
Matthew Hill
Fantasy Team Advice
9
14
Addison Witt
Fantasy Team Advice
7
14
Jeff Haseley
FootballGuys
9
14
Mike Krueger
FFToday
10
14
Doug Orth
FFToday
10
14
R.J. White
Fantasy Football Cafe
10
14
The FFGhost
Dynasty League Football
8
14
Tommy Rowan
Juan Elway
9
14
Walton Spurlin
FantasySharks
9
15
Tom Schriner
FFLockerRoom
8
15
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
7
15
Pat Fitzmaurice
The Football Girl
13
15
Ken Zalis
Pressbox
13
15
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
12
15
Sean Morris
Bruno Boys
7
15
Ryan Boser
LeagueSafePost
9
15
Dawgmatica
Pyromaniac
8
15
Dan Yanotchko
EDSFootball
13
16
Eric Mack
Bleacher Report
8
16
Antonio DArcangelis
FFToday
11
16
Ben Standig
CSN Washington
10
16
Marc Caviglia
Bruno Boys
9
16
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
10
17
Mike Harmon
Swollen Dome
18
17
Salvatore Stefanile
XN Sports
15
18
Tozzi Brothers
Legion Report
9
19
Jason Longfellow
Razzball
9
19
Tony Mauriello
ProjectRoto
9
19
Joseph Dolan
Fantasy Guru
9
19
C.D. Carter
XN Sports
10
21
Russell Clay
Dynasty League Football
8
25
Steve Olson
StatSims
4
26
Adam Rank
NFL.com
10
30
Derek Lofland
Fantasy Football Maniax
13
31
Davis Mattek
Sports Wunderkind
8
32
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
6
33
Ave Projection (?)
11.6
14.1
Best
14.6
16.0
Worst
7.8
12.5
Rush Yards
69.1
77.0
Rush TDs
0.4
0.6
Receptions
3.2
3.4
Rec Yards
20.1
25.5
Rec TDs
0.0
0.0
Ave Targets / Game
4.0
4.4
Total Targets
24.0
35.0
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
The talent is there but that huge role may not be. He should still be a threat for the top-5.
Foster was a downer in 2013 but he's a prime bounce back candidate. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, Houston will have to be run heavy to compete.
  
Brandon Funston
Yahoo! Sports
Workload no longer much of a concern with rookie RB Smis injured; 27% of career fantasy PTS came in 2 of his 22 games played
Hammy checked out fine in W1 (29 touches, 120 YFS); Workload, last-place schedule will pay big if health holds
  
Raju Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
Doug Martin probably belongs in tier three for now but as an ‘old regime’ back who has to deal with a very impressive rookie in Charles Sims, who is already a better receiver out of the backfield and who is a more exciting runner, he gets knocked down a tier due to his forecasted value hit.
Will push for top five by draft day
  
Jon Collins
Fantasy Sports LR
 
Another hammy issue in camp is troubling for Foster, who can't seem to stay healthy. Nevertheless, if he gives owners 16 games he is a bargain at the end of round one.
  
Staff Rankings
2MugsFF
Bumping him up into 2nd tier. Going to touch the rock a lot.
 
  
Smitty
Fantasy Football Starters
With Sims, the rookie, suffering injury, the threat of RBBC has quickly vanished. Martin's ADP hasn't rebounded since those threats, though, which is great news for those looking for a low-end RB1 outside of the top 20 overall.
There is some risk here, no question, but there is also a grip of upside. Don't draft Foster much higher than his ADP at all, as it's the low ADP right now that has Foster looking like somewhat low-risk and high-reward.
  
Sablich Brothers
The NY Times
Clear cut bell cow back with injuries to Sims and James.
Recent hamstring issue a reminder he struggled with injuries last summer/season.
  
James Hatfield
Hatty Waiver Wire Guru
He is a forgotten RB except if you were burned last year by his injury. He will slip in drafts, but his amazing upside can not be overlooked.
When you draft Foster you draft for his incredible upside. He is 28 and coming off back surgery, and he also considered retirement so it's hard to recommend him as a target to draft in 2014.
  
Chet Gresham
The Fake Football
Muscle Hamster's stock has fallen a bit with talk of his role being reduced, but I see Tedford upping the run game and that should compensate for any spreading out of touches for the running backs. Martin is still a top tier player.
What to do with Foster? We know his upside. There's no doubting it. Of course we also know he's been having injury issues and he's hard to trust. It will be tough to pass on his upside if he falls to the late second round in any of your drafts though.
  
Tom Schriner
FFLockerRoom
A lot of people are going to reach for Martin but the emergence of Mike James, showed me how bad Martin was during the first half of the season. Buyer beware.
Coming off of back surgery, it's hard to predict what kind of player Foster will be in 2014. His high volume of work in recent seasons gives you concern but if you can get him as the 15th back off the board or close, I wouldn't hesitate.
  
Pat Fitzmaurice
The Football Girl
A hard guy to peg. Tampa O-line has taken hits.
Outstanding when healthy, but his fragility scares me to death.
  
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
Played in only 6 games last season due to a torn labrum in his shoulder. Look for Martin's workload to diminish this season as Tampa Bay drafted Charles Sims in round 3 to give Martin a breather on occasions during passing downs. Martin should be drafted as a RB2 with RB1 upside. Tampa wants to rotate their RBs this year.
Played in only 8 games in 2013. Look for new Texans coach, Bill O'Brien, to get Foster the ball on the ground and by air this season. He will be the work horse, but can he stay healthy all season? He will benefit now that Ben Tate is in Cleveland. View Foster more as a RB2 with RB1 upside.
  
Tozzi Brothers
Legion Report
Tampa Bay is coupled with a very questionable Offensive line along with a brand new OC, Jeff Tedford that has never coached in the NFL before. Tedford has been at coaching at Cal the past 10 seasons, so it’s hard to suggest what his offense will exactly look like . ESPN Bucs reporter says “the Bucs want to use a rotation at the RB position this season,” as both new head coach Lovie Smith and Jeff Tedford are very fond of. “One running back just can’t make it through the season,” says Smith. The new regime in Tampa are not the ones who drafted Doug Martin, but they are the ones who spent a Top 70 pick on receiving back Charles Sims. Lovie Smith remains committed to Doug Martin being big part of their offense, but expect Charles Sims to replace him on passing downs while Rainey and James are also mixed within the Running Back Committee.
Injuries are a major concern for the talented RB with an ADP in Round 2. It's unlikely he'll stay on the field for all 17 games this season. Draft at your own risk. Foster’s 2013 Season was cut short by injury as he only netted 8 Games, however it is evident that he can still produce as he averaged 4.5 YPC. At age 27, Foster still has the capabilities to produce at an alarming rate and he will most certainly slip through the cracks come fantasy draft day. If drafting Foster, you will want to surround him with other quality RBs as his health is such a continuous question mark. Andre Brown is also a handcuff must. We like Foster and think he will have every opportunity to turn out monster numbers, but his durability is why we have slid him back in our rankings.
  
Derek Lofland
Fantasy Football Maniax
I think Martin will have a bounce back season in Lovie Smith's run oriented offense. I also do not view the torn labrum injury that cut his season short as an injury as that screams injury prone. I have lowered him in my rankings due to a Buccaneers offensive line that has been awful at run blocking in the preseason. Trading for G Logan Mankins will help, but quick fixes don't usually work on the offensive line.
Foster is someone that I will not own this year. He has too big of a name to last long enough in drafts for me to take a flyer on him. He's coming off a disappointing season that was cut short by a back injury and he already has missed time in training camp with a hamstring injury. He also did not play in one preseason game, presumably because he was not healthy enough or the Texans were scared he would aggravate the injury. I have no faith he can stay healthy in 2014. I view him as a low end flex value at this point in his career.