It was another week filled with surprise performances which means the experts had several opportunities to cash in when going out on a limb with their picks. We’ll examine below to see what were the best bold predictions delivered by the experts as well as the risky picks that they would likely want back if given a second chance.
As always, please note that our definition of a “bold prediction” is when an expert is the only person in our field of 30+ experts to rank a particular player above another player.
Bold Predictions: Top Hits
Match-up: Brandon Lloyd (WR #21) over Reggie Wayne (WR #2)
Expert: WhatIfSports
Difference in Fantasy Points: +18
*Ranks in the Match-up header represent each player’s Expert Consensus Rank (ECR)
If there’s one thing we know about WhatIfSports it’s that they absolutely love Brandon Lloyd. Last week, we spotlighted that they went out on a limb by giving him a top 5 WR ranking and hit on their prediction that Lloyd would outperform DeSean Jackson. This week, they went a few steps further by ranking Lloyd as their WR #2, ahead of everyone but Andre Johnson. Lloyd proved once again that WhatIfSports’ faith in him was warranted as he turned in a stellar performance (135 yards receiving, 2 TDs) against a tough Ravens defense. With a match-up looming against the Jets (and a possible visit to Revis Island), it will be interesting to see how high WhatIfSports ranks Lloyd in week 6 and if their ranking continues to be much more favorable than the other experts.
Match-up: Matt Forte (RB #18) over Steven Jackson (RB #6)
Expert: Fantasy Sharks
Difference in Fantasy Points: +18.2
Here are four numbers and, no, they don’t represent my GPA after my first 4 semesters in college: 2.9, 2.9, 2.6, & 2.2. Instead, they stand for Matt Forte’s YPC against each of the Bears’ opponents in weeks 1-4. We can also add 0 as a fifth number and that was the total of Forte’s rushing TDs heading into week 5.
Needless to say, Fantasy Sharks deserves a lot of credit for this pick because we can safely say that no one else was predicting Forte would outperform Steven Jackson. Fantasy Sharks correctly noted that Forte would play an increased role in the Bears’ offense due to the absence of QB Jay Cutler. Based off of this opportunity, they rewarded Forte with the highest ranking (RB #9) of any expert we tracked and he more than delivered with a monster game consisting of 166 yards rushing and 2 TDs.
Match-up: Malcom Floyd (WR #20) over Calvin Johnson (WR #4)
Expert: WhatIfSports
Difference in Fantasy Points: +15.9
In addition to hitting on their sleeper pick for WR Brandon Lloyd, WhatIfSports also did a nice job of anticipating an unexpected performance from Chargers WR, Malcom Floyd. They went out on a limb and had him ranked as their WR #6, which was easily Floyd’s highest ranking from the experts we tracked. On top of this, they were also responsible for giving Calvin Johnson the worst ranking (WR #25) from our expert field. Considering that Floyd was Week 5’s top fantasy WR and Johnson was solid, but unspectacular (11.4 fantasy points), this was a risky pick that paid off for WhatIfSports.
Match-up: Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB #18) over Matt Schaub (QB #8)
Expert: John Paulsen – The Scores Report
Difference in Fantasy Points: +17.46
Ryan Fitzpatrick was one of the surprise performers in week 5 and no one did a better job of ranking him than John Paulsen (The Scores Report). Paulsen correctly noted in his Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 5 article that Fitzpatrick was going up against a shaky defense (Jaguars) and that he would make for a great sleeper pick. Paulsen gave Fitzpatrick a higher ranking (QB #9) than any other expert as a result. Fitzpatrick more than came through on this prediction by throwing for 220 yards and 3 TDs (perhaps there’s some hope yet for Bills fans?).
As for Schaub, he turned in a lackluster performance (196 yards passing, 0 TDs, 1 INT) and Paulsen also gets some credit for ranking him lower (QB #11) than the expert consensus. So, on both fronts, this was good advice from Paulsen for his readers.
Match-up: Ray Rice (RB #11) over Arian Foster (RB #2)
Expert: Ryan Lester – Lester’s Legends
Difference in Fantasy Points: +25.2
Heading into the season, it probably would have made more sense if the bold prediction was Arian Foster over Ray Rice. Flash forward four weeks into the season, however, and the outlook for the two players shifted greatly. While 85% of our experts ranked Foster in their top 5 RBs, Ryan Lester (Lester’s Legends) was one of the few that had him slotted lower (RB #7). Lester also saw potential for Rice to break out of his slump against the Broncos and he was responsible for giving Rice his best ranking (RB #6). As it turned out, Rice did have a breakout day (133 yards rushing, 2 TDs) and it earned Lester the distinction of being the only expert we monitored to correctly predict that Rice would outperform Foster.
Match-up: Marcedes Lewis (TE #16) over Tony Gonzalez (TE #8)
Expert: Jamey Eisenberg – CBS Sports
Difference in Fantasy Points: +13.3
Is it just me or is Marcedes Lewis starting to morph into Marcedes “All he does is catch touchdowns” Lewis? With another 2 TDs on just 4 catches Sunday, Lewis now has tallied 5 TDs on a grand total of 16 receptions this year. Talk about making your catches count.
Jamey Eisenberg from CBS Sports was one of only 4 experts that ranked Lewis in their top 12 TEs, effectively considering him a starting TE for fantasy purposes. Of those experts, Eisenberg was the only one to have Lewis ahead of Tony Gonzalez (his TE #13) so Eisenberg deserves kudos for correctly ranking Lewis above the expert consensus as well as for accurately slotting Gonzalez (just 4.1 fantasy points) below the consensus.
Bold Predictions: Top Misses
What about the top bold predictions that the experts missed on in Week 5? Click on each player match-up below to view an instant profile of these picks.
- Ryan Torain (RB #19) over Chris Johnson (RB #4) – Fantasy Sharks
- Mike Bell (RB #36) over Ray Rice (RB #11) – Paul Greco (FantasyPros911)
- Todd Collins (QB #24) over Kyle Orton (QB #10) – Fantasy Sharks
- Johnny Knox (WR #32) over Hakeem Nicks (WR #5) – FFToolbox
- Legedu Naanee (WR #48) over Terrell Owens (WR #16) – FanHouse
- LeGarrette Blount (RB #41) over Jahvid Best (RB #10) – Fantasy Sharks
- Brandon LaFell (WR #59) over Brandon Lloyd (WR #21) – SI.com
- Danny Amendola (WR #46) over Malcom Floyd (WR #20) – KFFL
So there you have it: A snapshot of the top bold predictions from the experts that hit and missed this week. We’ll be back again next week to review the picks where the experts went out on a limb in Week 6. In the meantime, please follow us on Twitter if you’re interested in staying on top of the latest FantasyPros updates.
