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Week 10 Accuracy Scores: Which Experts Came Out on Top?

Nov 17, 2010

It’s hard to believe but we’re already through 10 weeks of the NFL season. While this is sobering news to those who wish the football season would never end, the bright side is that we’ve now developed a sizable set of data from which to evaluate the fantasy experts. This should hopefully make it easier for fantasy owners to choose which expert advice to follow as we head down the all-important stretch run.

Speaking of the stretch run, let’s take a look at how our accuracy contest is shaping up now that another week is complete. We’ll break down which experts nailed their week 10 predictions and also examine how this impacted the Year-to-Date leaderboard.

Week 10 Leaderboard

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*Overall standings evaluate experts’ weekly rankings at the QB, RB, WR, & TE positions

Notes:

  • Kudos to Ryan Lester (Lester’s Legends) for putting together the most accurate set of player rankings in week 10. This is the second time this season that Lester has earned the top honor so he has certainly proven that his past success was no fluke. The strength of his picks this past week came at projecting WRs (#1 rank) and TEs (#2 rank). For his WR predictions, Lester rode big days from Dwayne Bowe (KC), Mike Wallace (PIT) and Mike Williams (SEA) as he had each player ranked better than the Expert Consensus. And at the TE position, Lester identified several surprise players including Todd Heap (BAL) and Kellen Winslow (CLE) that helped to distinguish his rankings from the other experts.

  • A site that took advantage of the unpredictable nature of this past week’s games was WhatIfSports. Anyone that follows our Bold Prediction posts knows that WhatIfSports is one of the most likely sites to go out on a limb with their rankings. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that they would hit it big in a week filled with unexpected outcomes. Specifically, they finished in the top 10 for all four positions that factor into our overall accuracy scores: QB (#1 rank), TE (#2 rank), WR (#8 rank), and RB (#9 rank). The #1 QB rank is especially notable as WhatIfSports not only nailed the week’s top sleepers (Matt Cassel, Troy Smith), but they also anticipated the players that were surprisingly held in check (Peyton Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick).
  • The staff at FantasyFootballCafe landed in the top 5 of the weekly standings for the second time this year. They did so in large part thanks to the success of their RB rankings which were rated as the most accurate for the week. A key to FantasyFootballCafe’s strong performance at this position was that they managed to rank 9 out of the top 10 fantasy RBs as well or better than the Expert Consensus. This includes breakout player, Keiland Williams (WAS), as well as previous underachievers, Knowshon Moreno (DEN) and Felix Jones (DAL).
  • Rounding out the top 5 are FantasyFootballNerd and FFToolbox. The Nerd had a great week with his composite rankings as he finished in the top 10 at three positions: WR (#3), RB (#6) and QB (#7). Meanwhile, the staff at FFToolbox rode the accuracy of their WR predictions (#2 rank) to finish in the upper portion of the overall standings. Similar to the other experts that did well with their WR picks, they were high on week 10 stud, Dwayne Bowe (KC). FFToolbox also took an unpopular stance with their belief in players such as Chad Ochocinco (CIN) and Miles Austin (DAL) and this helped to fuel their success.

Year-to-Date Leaderboard

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Notes:

  • Make it 6 weeks in a row for John Paulsen (The Scores Report) as the #1 overall expert. We’re running out of superlatives to describe his performance so we’ll just say that it’s been quite an impressive run. While Paulsen continues to be locked in a tight race for the top spot with Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Sports), this marks the 2nd consecutive week that he has extended his lead. The current lead also represents Paulsen’s largest advantage since week 5 so he has more than held his ground while facing some tough competition.
  • We probably don’t talk about him enough in this space but one of the most consistent providers of quality advice over the past 2 seasons we’ve tracked has been David Dodds (FootballGuys). Last year, Dodds finished 5th overall in our competition and he was the top RB prognosticator. If that wasn’t good enough, he is up to #3 overall this year and is once again vying for the RB crown (#2 rank). While we like to steer away from advocating that readers follow the advice of specific experts, we can safely say that strong consideration should go into checking out Dodds’ RB picks given his track record.
  • The only new entrant to this week’s overall top 5 is Ryan Lester (Lester’s Legends). Lester vaulted all the way from #12 to #5 as a result of having the best accuracy score in week 10. This goes to show that the opportunity still exists for plenty of movement in the standings despite the fact that spots #1 – #4 remained the same this week. For the season, Lester now ranks in the top 15 for every position (QB/RB/WR/TE) that factors into the overall accuracy scores so he has done a good job of providing well-rounded advice.

Please note that you can visit the accuracy section of our site if you’re interested in seeing how everyone in the field of nearly 40 experts stacks up against one another. The entire standings are offered at no cost to our registered members. Simply sign up for FREE and you’ll be able to view all of the accuracy scores!

We’ll be back again next week with a wrap-up of Week 11. In the meantime, feel free to share your feedback or to ask any questions you have regarding our accuracy process. Thanks!

Accuracy