It goes without saying that it was another eventful week in the NFL. Between Jay Cutler torching the red hot Eagles, Chris Johnson failing to crack double digits rushing and the mild-mannered Andre Johnson brawling with Cortland Finnegan, we certainly had our share of unexpected events. Even last week’s stud, Steve Johnson, gave everyone plenty to talk about with his bizarre post-game reaction to dropping a potential game-winning TD vs. the Steelers.
While week 12 may not go down as the week of the sleeper (Rusty Smith anyone?), there were still plenty of surprise performances for our field of 39 experts to try and peg. What follows is a breakdown of the top bold predictions delivered by the experts.
Bold Predictions: Top Hits
Match-up*: Ben Obomanu (WR #48) over Percy Harvin (WR #21)
Expert: Sigmund Bloom (FootballGuys)
Difference in Fantasy Points: +17.3
*Ranks in the Match-up header represent each player’s Expert Consensus Rank (ECR)
Even though week 12 was a bit light on sleepers compared to previous weeks, Ben Obomanu was a player that broke through in a major way. With Mike Williams out of action with a foot injury, Obomanu took advantage of his opportunity to earn more playing time by racking up 159 yards receiving and a TD.
We have to credit Sigmund Bloom (FootballGuys) for going out on a limb and making Obomanu one of his sleeper picks. While roughly 1/3 of the experts we tracked had Obomanu unranked, Bloom had him slotted higher than everyone else (WR #26). This served as a great decision on Bloom’s part considering that Obomanu exceeded all expectations and finished as a top 5 fantasy WR for the week.
Match-up: Matt Cassel (QB #16) over Peyton Manning (QB #5)
Expert: WhatIfSports
Difference in Fantasy Points: +16.72
Stop us if you’ve seen this pick before. We’ve noted in the past that WhatIfSports has shown a tendency to go against Peyton Manning when others haven’t. In fact, this is now the 3rd time in the past 4 weeks that they’ve landed in the Top Hits portion of our Bold Predictions by giving Manning a low ranking. This week, they had Manning ranked lower (QB #14) than every other expert in our field. With Manning throwing 4 INTs against the Chargers, it turns out that WhatIfSports could have gone even lower with their ranking. Just as shocking, Manning has now thrown a career worst 7 picks in the last two weeks as it appears that poor offensive line play and a depleted WR corps is catching up with him.
On the other end of this match-up, WhatIfSports did a nice job of pegging Matt Cassel as an impact player. They spotted that Cassel had a great opportunity against Seattle’s porous secondary and ranked him accordingly (QB #7). With 4 TD passes (and a little help from Dwayne Bowe), Cassel picked apart the hapless Seahawks and ended the week as the 2nd ranked fantasy QB.
Match-up: Jacoby Ford (WR #59) over Terrell Owens (WR #22)
Expert: Dave Richard (CBS Sports)
Difference in Fantasy Points: +16.4
One of the things we learned this week is that under no circumstances is it a good idea to call Darrelle Revis an average cornerback. That’s what Terrell Owens did leading up to the Bengals’ Thanksgiving match-up with the Jets. Apparently, Dave Richard (CBS Sports) didn’t agree with T.O.’s assessment because he had Owens ranked the lowest (WR #41) of all the experts we monitored. This ranking was essentially the equivalent of a recommendation to keep Owens on your fantasy bench and it served as a great piece of advice. Revis had T.O. completely bottled up all night and held him to a season low 17 yards receiving. Incidentally, 17 is also the over/under on the number of people that will be watching the next episode of “The T.Ocho Show” on the VERSUS network.
Match-up: Michael Turner (RB #12) over Chris Johnson (RB #4)
Expert: Matthew Berry (ESPN)
Difference in Fantasy Points: +16.7
This might not sound like a bold prediction on the surface but it’s true that Matthew Berry was the only expert (out of 39) to predict that Michael Turner would be a better fantasy play than Chris Johnson. Turner was not a popular pick, in part, because he had a seemingly unfavorable match-up against the Packers, who had allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs. That didn’t stop Berry from ranking Turner (RB #6) higher than everyone else, however. Turner rewarded this faith by having a productive day on the ground where he rushed for 110 yards along with a TD.
As for Chris Johnson, there’s not much to say other than he was a victim of circumstances in week 12. With Rusty Smith as his QB, the running lanes weren’t exactly wide open as the Houston Texans were unafraid of being burnt in the passing game. Considering that just about everyone else has lit up the Texans through the air this year, that’s saying something. The end result was that Johnson had one of the worst games of his career (5 yards rushing). Whether or not Matthew Berry accounted for the “Rusty Smith Effect” on Johnson’s performance, he deserves credit because he had Johnson ranked lower (RB #7) than the majority of the experts.
Match-up: Wes Welker (WR #24) over DeSean Jackson (WR #11)
Expert: Sports Illustrated
Difference in Fantasy Points: +18.1
One of the top WR studs in week 12 was Wes Welker and no one had more confidence in him than the staff at Sports Illustrated. They had Welker slotted considerably higher (WR #6) than the Expert Consensus (WR #24) based off of a favorable match-up against the Detroit Lions. With 2 TDs and 90 yards receiving, Welker turned in his best game of the season as he continues to fully recover from offseason knee surgery. The performance made him a top 5 fantasy WR for the week and if his recent play is any indication (3 TDs in the last two games), Welker is well on his way to regaining his old form.
Sports Illustrated also did a nice job with their ranking of DeSean Jackson. They were lower (WR #23) than most on Jackson as he went up against a tough, hard hitting Bears’ secondary. Chicago completely neutralized Jackson’s big play ability and he finished the day with just 26 yards receiving on 2 catches. This performance helped Sports Illustrated nail their bold prediction that Welker would be a better fantasy option than Jackson.
Bold Predictions: Top Misses
Even the best experts misfire at times so it’s no surprise there is a set of bold predictions that were off-target. Click on each player match-up below to get an instant profile of the picks that represent the top misses from week 12.
- Anquan Boldin (WR #18) over Dwayne Bowe (WR #4) – Fantasy Fanatics
- Sidney Rice (WR #26) over Dwayne Bowe (WR #4) – Fantazzle
- Brandon Jacobs (RB #25) over Peyton Hillis (RB #2) – WhatIfSports
- Tim Hightower (RB #41) over Fred Jackson (RB #23) – Roger Rotter (Fox Sports)
- Michael Bush (RB #46) over Mike Goodson (RB #26) – FantasyFootballCafe
- Brett Favre (QB #17) over Michael Vick (QB #4) – Sexy Rexy (Game of Inches)
- Reggie Bush (RB #35) over Jamaal Charles (RB #10) – WhatIfSports
We’ll be back again next week to review the top bold predictions from week 13. In the meantime, you can stay on top of all the latest fantasy football articles from over 125 experts by checking out our fantasy advice portal, The Handoff. And to keep track of what’s going on at FantasyPros, be sure to follow us on Twitter.
