2011 FantasyPros Group Challenge
The FantasyPros Group Challenge provides a fun way for sites to compete with each other. Our goal is to recognize the best fantasy football communities based on the quality of advice provided by their members.
Every Thursday, Fantasypros will reveal its 10 most difficult start/sit decisions (only involving players from Sunday/Monday games). Each group’s members will make their predictions, and FantasyPros will keep track of all the member picks. On Tuesdays, FantasyPros will update a leaderboard to show how each forum ranks based on the accuracy of their start/sit recommendations. After 16 weeks, we’ll crown the top group as the winner of our challenge.
The scoring is based off of our PAY™ (Prediction Accuracy Yield) methodology that measures how optimal a set of predictions are. 3 important things to understand with this methodology are the following:
- Every member’s vote counts. The more people that pick the right player, the higher the score of the group.
- We are measuring each group’s ability to create an optimal lineup (given the match-ups). A 100% PAY™ is a perfect score and means that every single member of a group picked the correct player.
- A key advantage of PAY™ over other scoring systems is that it bakes in the relative importance of each decision made (explained in detail below).
Here’s an example for 2 Groups (A & B) that shows how the scoring would work for 2 sample start/sit questions:
Q1: Who would you start in week 1, Felix Jones (@NYJ) or DeAngelo Williams (@ARI)?
Group A Pick = Jones (60%), Williams (40%)
Group B Pick = Jones (45%), Williams (55%)
Fantasy Points = Jones (25), Williams (10)
Our first step is to calculate the weighted points that each forum has earned based off of the % of members that made the correct pick (Jones). We multiply this % by the spread in fantasy points (15) for the match-up:
Group A Score = 60% x 15 points = 9 pts
Group B Score = 45% x 15 points = 6.75 pts
In this example, Group A had a larger % get the pick correct so they are awarded more points than Group B.
Q2: Who would you start in week 1, Jeremy Maclin (@STL) or Mario Manningham (@WAS)?
Group A Pick = Maclin (60%), Manningham (40%)
Group B Pick = Maclin (45%), Manningham (55%)
Fantasy Points: Maclin (25), Manningham (23)
Once again, we calculate the weighted points each Group has earned:
Group A Score = 60% x 2 points = 1.2 pts
Group B Score = 45% x 2 points = .9 pts
Note that Group A receives a higher point total but the amount they receive is negligible since the fantasy impact of choosing Maclin over Manningham was not as crucial as the decision in question 1. This is why we use “point spreads” as opposed to overall point totals when calculating the weighted points.
Once the above calculations are made, we then combine the results to generate one overall score, expressed as a % (PAY™). Our formula for this is the following:
PAY™ = (total points earned/total points possible)
Group A Score = (9 pts + 1.2 pts)/(15 pts +2 pts) = 60% PAY™
Group B Score = (6.75 pts + .9 pts)/(15 pts + 2 pts) = 45% PAY™
Thus, Group A is deemed to have made the more accurate start/sit decisions.
- Each group must have a minimum of 50 valid member entries each week.
- Only one entry per group member is allowed. Members cannot vote at multiple sites.
- Polls close at 1pm EST each Sunday.
- There are no prizes associated with the Group Challenge.
Good luck to all the communities!
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