As a co-owner of a new fantasy football website, there was a little more at stake for me this year in my main league (can you imagine the ridicule I’d get from my league mates if I didn’t do well?). I’m happy to report that Josh Freeman’s 5 TDs in Week 16 helped me take home the championship! And yes, I owe it all to FantasyPros.

Don’t worry, this post isn’t a testimonial for our own site. Rather, I’d like to take a minute to thank our experts. FantasyPros wouldn’t exist without the diligent work of all the fantasy pros we track. Their timely and comprehensive weekly rankings (coupled with our tools that organize and rate the advice)  helped many of us win more games while doing less “work” to keep up.

For this final edition of Featured Pros for 2010, we interviewed 2010’s most accurate experts to find out a little more about them, their sites, and how they produce their player projections and rankings.

Jump to a specific expert’s interview by clicking on their name below:
John Paulsen – The Scores Report
David Dodds – FootballGuys
Andy Behrens – Yahoo! Sports
Josh Moore – 4for4.com

#1 – JOHN PAULSEN
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Q: Can you tell us a little about your site, The Scores Report, and how you got started in the fantasy business?

John: The Scores Report is a national sports blog. We cover all the major sports, but my focus is on fantasy football during the NFL season, and then my focus turns to the NBA and college basketball once the season is over. I started writing for Bullz-Eye in 2005 and shortly thereafter began covering fantasy football on BE and then on The Scores Report.

Q: Can you briefly describe your process for coming up with your player projections/rankings?

John: I have an engineering background, so statistics play a big role in my rankings. I calculate strength of schedule each week, and use matchups to put my rankings together. I don’t do player-specific projections, at least not yet, so my rankings probably have more “feel” than some of the more math-driven rankings that are out there. This allows me to create rankings that reflect my own opinion on each player, including the level of trust that each player has earned. In other words, if a player is a risky start but has considerable upside, I generally won’t rank them ahead of a solid start with little upside. If I have one player ranked ahead of another, it almost always means that I would personally start them in that order as well. I wouldn’t want to advise my readers to start someone that I wouldn’t start myself under the same circumstances.

Q: You were a fixture in our top 5 leaderboard for most of the year. In fact, you held on to the #1 spot for 11 consecutive weeks! We know your profile page on FantasyPros.com has had a ton of visitors – have you also seen an increase in readers and exposure this season?

John: Yes, we have definitely seen an uptick in traffic and many of our readers who post questions on our weekly Q&A have said that they’ve found the blog through FantasyPros. It has provided great exposure for me as well as our blog. Those fantasy owners who are thirsty for greater detail should talk to my co-worker, Anthony Stalter, from time to time. He writes from a pure football standpoint, so he can tell you which offensive line should improve the most or which cornerback has the best chance to develop into a shut-down cover guy. He has been a great resource for me over the years.

Q: If you had to name one peer in the industry that you’d hate to go up against in a fantasy league, who would it be?

John: I’m not sure how to answer this because I enjoy measuring myself against the best competition, so I’d love to be in a league with the top names in the industry. That said, I have been a member of Footballguys for several years, so purely from a “winning time” standpoint, I’d rather not compete against David Dodds or Sigmund Bloom if there were money on the line.

Q: I know it’s way too early for this discussion, but off the top of your head, name one “sleeper” for next year and tell us why he’ll surprise us.

John: Oddly enough, I wrote a piece entitled “Looking ahead to the 2011 fantasy season,” so a plug here wouldn’t hurt.

I don’t know if he qualifies as a sleeper, but Jonathan Stewart has a chance to put up Top 10 RB numbers in 2011 if the Panthers don’t re-sign DeAngelo Williams this summer. He got off to a rough start as the starter when Williams went down, but really got it going down the stretch. From a deep sleeper standpoint, I really like the opportunity that Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell and Jordan Shipley will have in Cincinnati assuming both Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco move on. They’re young and ready to emerge, and they’ve all played well in spots when given the opportunity. All three could be fantasy-worthy depending on who’s QBing the Bengals in 2011.

#2 – DAVID DODDS
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Q: You’ve built one of the most successful subscription sites in fantasy football. What’s the #1 reason why so many people are willing to pay for your service?

David: It’s probably not just one thing. We are the only website that will send out a free daily newsletter every single day from the day after the draft until the start of the season. We spend 3-4 hours every day crafting this email to send to the 168,000 people on our mailing list. We have built the site up with staff who play competitive fantasy football so their articles reflect the best the industry has to offer. We have a staff of over 35 contributors. We published over 50,000 pages of internet content in 2010 and our applications (draft, trading, weekly management) are second to none. For all of this we charge just $27 for the entire NFL season. We also offer a money back guarantee all the way until September 30th if you are not happy with what we do. We think it’s a no-brainer subscription for people serious about fantasy football.

Q: Can you briefly describe your process for coming up with your player projections/rankings

David: We take projections very seriously at FBG. I put about 20-25 hours a week on my projections. Our process starts with us actually simulating the games. We look closely at yards per attempt, yards per carry for both offenses and defenses. We run the calculations both with season and last 4 games data. We compare this with the last 3 years of NFL data in an attempt to find “similar” matchups and what actually happened. This frames the games for us (pass/rush statistics) and is released as a feature called “Game Predictor”. It’s a very accurate tool in predicting how a team will likely perform on a given week regarding rush/pass ratios, yards, TDs, etc. The hard part then becomes slotting the players into these outcomes. For QBs and RBs this is pretty easy (as the majority of the numbers come from one player at each position). The TE and WR position are a bit more challenging and usually involves looking at targets, past performance, defensive coverage tendencies, etc.

Q: You’ve been the #1 RB Expert for two years in a row. Is there anything special that you do for this position and/or do you focus on it more?

David: I think our simulated games correctly frames what we expect the rushing yards and TDs to be in each contest. Since the majority of that production will go to one or two guys, this is the easiest of the positions for us to predict.

Q: If you had to name one peer in the industry that you’d hate to go up against in a fantasy league, who would it be?

David: Probably Lou Tranquilli of BFD Fantasy. He is an accomplished high-stakes player that knows what he is doing. People would be smart to pay attention to what he is telling you.

Q: I know it’s way too early for this discussion, but off the top of your head, name one “sleeper” for next year and tell us why he’ll surprise us.

David: I think people will have a sour taste in their mouths for Jahvid Best, but I think we saw glimpses of how great this player can be in 2011 and going forward. He was battling injuries all year, but should be atop the Detroit RB depth chart next season with minimal competition. The Detroit offense (with a healthy Best, Calvin Johnson, and Matthew Stafford) should be excellent in 2011. Best will be a player I will be targeting in just about every league I am in next season.

#3 – ANDY BEHRENS
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Q: Can you tell us how you got into the fantasy business and how you landed a nice gig with Yahoo?

Andy: Like many people in the industry, I wrote about sports (fantasy and reality) for years, often unpaid. I basically said yes to every opportunity that was offered, as long as it meant exposure, regardless of compensation. Along the way, while writing for local publications and not-so-mainstream websites, I like to think I earned the trust of a few editors. Those folks eventually moved on to roles with exceedingly mainstream websites, and I was lucky enough to get a few assignments. (This was a personal favorite).

Two of the people who’ve assisted me the most — and who I respect a great deal — are actually working for ESPN at the moment: Matthew Berry and Chris Harris. Matt gave many people in our industry their first serious opportunity to write fantasy. Chris is a good friend, a vicious fantasy owner, and a fantastic writer. Through Chris, I met Brandon Funston and Brad Evans. I interviewed for the Yahoo! job over deep dish pizza at Gino’s East.

Q: Can you briefly describe your process for coming up with your player projections/rankings?

Andy: I like to think that I spend all week showing my work, writing games as they’re being played on Sundays and Mondays, discussing upcoming match-ups on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. As best we can, the Yahoo! fantasy staff tries to put a forward-looking spin on everything we write. When I actually sit down to rank, I’m working from spreadsheets, I have a few stat tools available, and I treat the whole thing as a sit/start exercise. I go through an initial round of ranks on Tuesday and Wednesday — it takes maybe three hours — then I clean it up on Thursday, adjusting for mid-week practice reports.

Q: You won the competition in 2009 and came in 3rd this year. Pretty incredible considering that we doubled the field of experts. You were also one of the most consistently accurate experts (both across weeks and across positions). Now that we’ve buttered you up, tell us what the secret is to being consistently good at fantasy prognostication (if you had to narrow it down to one thing)?

Andy: The tough thing about football is this: We have to re-learn the league every year. All of us are wrong about a thousand things during the preseason — we’re even wrong about the things we feel strongly about. The NFL is a difficult thing to forecast, particularly when you’re trying to predict outcomes for individual players in a chaotic game. I think I’m relatively quick to adjust when actual events don’t meet my initial expectations. That is, if I’m wrong about a player’s value in August, I don’t let that preseason value affect my judgment in October.

Another thing that probably works in my favor — at least in accuracy contests like this — is my handling of players for whom the range of possible outcomes is unusually wide. Let’s say, for example, that a below-average quarterback has an outstanding match-up. I’m almost never going to rank the guy in, say, my top-five, or perhaps even my top-ten. I’ll acknowledge the possibility that he could shred a bad secondary, but I also try to account for downside potential. Certain QBs are capable of four-turnover games, regardless of the opponent.

Q: If you had to name one peer in the industry that you’d hate to go up against in a fantasy league, who would it be?

Andy: Scott Pianowski, my Yahoo! colleague, is an absolute shark. Great drafter, great mid-season player. He’s tough, no matter the game. If we’re playing Twister, Scott will find a way to finish in the money. And as I mentioned above, Chris Harris is great. He has no luck whatsoever in our 16-team dynasty league, but his roster is always very good.

Q: I know it’s way too early for this discussion, but off the top of your head, name one “sleeper” for next year and tell us why he’ll surprise us.

Andy: Jerome Simpson was a revelation over the final two weeks (18 REC, 247 yards, 3 TDs). He also put up his numbers against serious defenses — San Diego and Baltimore — that were involved in must-win games.

#4 – JOSH MOORE
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Q: Can you tell us a little about your site, 4for4.com, and how you got started in the fantasy business?

Josh: 4for4.com combines a powerful mix of news, football knowledge, forecasting skills and resources to provide a platform for delivering top-rate Fantasy Football decision-support solutions.

Our subscribers have varying needs and we cover all aspects of Fantasy Football. That said, the #1 thing 4for4.com brings to the table is PROVEN and ACCURATE rankings & projections — week after week, year after year, since 2000.

I myself have been playing fantasy sports for 10+ years but first got involved with 4for4 5+ years ago in a web development role. Over time my role has expanded and I now manage nearly all of our day to day operations including our pre and in-season stat projections & player rankings.

Q: Can you briefly describe your process for coming up with your player projections/rankings?

Josh: In the beginning, 4for4.com founder Greg Alan used his industry experience and statistical background to design a number of fantasy football decision support tools and forecasting models. These models, as well as additional models we work on each season, have been churning out accurate fantasy football projections & rankings for the past 10 years.

Of course there is a significant amount of human time, thought & analysis that goes into the process each week. I rely heavily on our network of 4for4.com Scouts to keep me in the loop of all the situations around the NFL. I couldn’t do what I do without the perspective each scout brings to the table and the inside access they give me to the teams they cover.

One of the core beliefs at 4for4.com is that knowing your league’s scoring rules and having player rankings based on those scoring rules gives you a huge edge over the competition and their pre-canned rankings & cheat sheets. Every week our subscribers have access to full stat projections for all fantasy relevant players and access to decision support tools to rank these players based on their scoring rules.

For the Fantasy Pros Accuracy Contest we practice what we preach. We use the same projections and tools found on our site, while applying the scoring rules specific to the Accuracy Contest.

Q: You had a really strong start and finish in our season-long competition. That’s the type of roller coaster ride that many fantasy players are familiar with in their own leagues. Were there any mid season adjustments that you made to get back on track?

Josh: No, I wouldn’t say that any mid-season adjustments were made other than the fact that every week of every NFL season we learn new things about the landscape of the NFL and more importantly the fantasy football world. I don’t believe it’s any coincidence that our strongest weeks occurred in weeks with a full slate of NFL games (no BYEs). Because of the large amount of inherent variance when it comes to predicting the future, the power of our forecasting models really shine when dealing with a larger data set.

Q: If you had to name one peer in the industry that you’d hate to go up against in a fantasy league, who would it be?

Josh: Hands down I wouldn’t want to compete against 4for4.com founder Greg Alan. Greg is a fierce competitor with seemingly endless NFL & fantasy experience. There’s no doubt in my mind Greg would spend many tireless nights analyzing my team and my strategies in search of an edge. He also might let me hear about it if he were to take home the championship.

Q: I know it’s way too early for this discussion, but off the top of your head, name one “sleeper” for next year and tell us why he’ll surprise us.

Josh: It’s never too early to start thinking about next season. 4for4 Scout Dale Lolley covers the Steelers for us each week and we both like WR Emmanuel Sanders as a sleeper for 2011. Dale says: I love Sanders going into next season. He runs good routes and Mike Wallace is going to consistently draw double teams, leaving him with single coverage. I look for him to approach 900 yards next season on 60 catches with about six scores.

Again, I’d like to thank all of our experts for taking time to contribute to FantasyPros throughout the year. Our success this season was directly related to the hard work that each expert put into their rankings. We’re also grateful for all the additional advice our Featured Pros provided to our members this season. John, David, Andy, Josh, and all our other 40+ experts – Thanks for making 2010 an amazing year, and best wishes for an even better 2011!