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Week 10’s Most Accurate Experts

Every week in the NFL has its own quirks and week 10 was no exception. No stat stood out more than Matthew Stafford attempting 63 passes compared to Tim Tebow’s 8 attempts. Even more amazing is that Tebow managed to nearly double Stafford’s fantasy production. It just goes to show that you see something new every week in this topsy-turvy sport we all enjoy so much.


While something such as the above example is hardly predictable, there are still plenty of outcomes that can be spotted in advance. That’s where the fantasy experts come into play with their weekly picks.


So which experts were the best at predicting week 10’s fantasy performances? We’ll break it down by looking at the 10 most accurate experts (out of 75). You can also view the YTD leaderboard here.


Week 10 Leaderboard


Overall Week 10 Accuracy Scores*  
 Rank  Expert  PAY™
  1.  Paul Greco – FantasyPros911  65.1%
  2.  Sigmund Bloom – FootballGuys  64.6%
  3.  David Dodds – FootballGuys  64.5%
  4.  Site Projections – ESPN  64.0%
  5.  Mike Krueger – FFToday  63.6%
  6.  Kevin Roberts – NFL Soup  63.4%
  7.  Staff Composite – Yahoo! Sports  63.4%
  8.  Staff Rankings – RosterWatch  63.1%
  9.  Staff Rankings – FFToolbox  63.1%
  10.  Chet Gresham – Razzball  62.9%

*See how all 75 experts ranked for the week




  • Congratulations to week 10’s most accurate expert, Paul Greco (FantasyPros911). Greco proved to be a master at predicting RBs this past week, edging out all of his peers. He was especially high (RB #22) on Marshawn Lynch and went out on a limb as one of a few pundits to give him RB2 status. That was a solid piece of advice as Lynch defeated the odds by posting top 5 numbers against a stout Ravens’ defense. Greco also hit the mark by touting several of week 10’s biggest studs: DeMarco Murray (RB #6), Chris Johnson (RB #12) & Reggie Bush (RB #19). Each player was a top 10 performer that Greco ranked better than the expert consensus. These picks served as key contributions to his #1 overall rating for the week.


  • A familiar name to the top 10 – Sigmund Bloom (FootballGuys) – is back again as this week’s runner-up. Bloom earned his lofty rating by providing sound advice across the positions he ranked. That is to say he finished in the top 15 at RB, WR & TE. His picks were notable for pegging a duo of Raiders that lit up the Chargers. Specifically, Bloom was one of just 6 experts that ranked Michael Bush (RB #9) inside their top 10 RBs. He also delivered the 2nd highest rating  of the week (WR #23) for Denarius Moore, who hauled in 2 TD passes in addition to 100 yards receiving. Given his faith in the Raiders’ RBs & WRs, it probably doesn’t come as a surprise that Bloom was also a week 10 believer in Carson Palmer. His ranking (QB #10) was 8 spots higher than the consensus and served as a recommendation to consider Palmer as a low end QB play. That turned out to be helpful advice as Palmer put up solid numbers (299 yards passing, 2 TDs & 1 INT).


  • The quality advice from FootballGuys didn’t stop with Sigmund Bloom. Another FBG expert, David Dodds, also turned in a top 5 performance. Dodds finished the week 3rd overall on the strength of his RB picks (#3 rank). This showing likely comes as no surprise to those who followed our accuracy competitions in 2009 & 2010. Dodds was the #1 RB expert for BOTH of those years. This past week, he was on target by slotting top 5 backs – DeMarco Murray (RB #5) & Marshawn Lynch (RB #21) – ahead of the majority of experts. He also had the foresight to downgrade a trio of guys that would typically be starters: Shonn Greene (RB #27), Beanie Wells (RB #35) & Jackie Battle (RB #35). In each instance, those rankings from Dodds represented either the lowest or second lowest ratings for a group of players that underachieved.


  • The site projections from ESPN may catch some flack every now and then but they proved to be extremely accurate this past week (#4 rank). This was especially the case at the WR position, where ESPN graded out as serving up the best advice. One of their best picks was placing the week’s 2nd best WR, Denarius Moore, a full 26 spots ahead (WR #23) of the expert consensus. That advice acted as a definite recommendation to start Moore even though he wasn’t a trendy pick to break out. ESPN also showed some confidence in another up-and-coming receiver that put up top 5 numbers. Their ranking (WR #36) for Damian Williams was 21 spots higher than the field and showed that they considered Williams a prime Flex candidate. Finally, ESPN made the right call in downgrading Wes Welker, given that his week 10 match-up included a visit to Revis Island. The ranking they handed Welker (WR #29) was lower than that of all but one expert. It was ultimately the right call as Welker finished the week barely inside the top 50 WRs.


If you’d like to see how the entire field rated in week 10, head over to the accuracy section of our site. The results are viewable by position and we also have a YTD leaderboard that displays the overall standings.


And, don’t forget, you can play in our Beat the Expert contest if you’re looking to see how you stack up against the pros. The contest is completely free with a $1,000 prize pool courtesy of our sponsor, FanDuel. This week’s expert is #1 rated prognosticator, Pat Fitzmaurice (ProFootballWeekly). Good luck!

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