The modern NFL is a pass-first league with top tier quarterbacks rewriting record books every year. The beauty of this culture, whether you find yourself in a standard or PPR league, is all of the attention wideouts receive. Of course, as with any position, there are untrustworthy receivers sprinkled throughout the league. In this edition of Featured Pros, our pros help us determine which receiver is worthy of our attention, and which sexy names we should avoid on Draft Day.
Featured Pros:
Alessandro Miglio – Pro Football Focus
Ryan Lester – Lester’s Legends
Q1 – From the list below, pick one receiver coming off of an injury and/or a disappointing season who you expect to bounce back in a big way in 2012.
- Dez Bryant
- Miles Austin
- DeSean Jackson
- Kenny Britt
- Santonio Holmes
Alessandro Miglio – Pro Football Focus
Can I say none? Most of these guys scare me for one reason or another, but if I had to choose one it would be DeSean Jackson. He was a big disappointment for his fantasy owners last season, and much of that likely had to do with his desire for a lucrative, long-term contract. Well, he got his wish this offseason, so he can go back to playing without worrying about getting hurt. The Eagles offense is going to be dangerous all around. D-Jax is more of a deep threat than his counterpart Jeremy Maclin, though the latter is likely to get more volume. Dez Bryant would have been my choice were it not for his offseason arrest. He has reportedly been working hard on conditioning, which was a major issue for him last season—he routinely had bad second halves because he was out of shape.
Ryan Lester – Lester’s Legends
Some players put up monster numbers in contract years only to fall back to earth once management shows them the money. In my mind, DeSean Jackson is the opposite. Not only do I think bitterness played a role in his disappointing season, I think reluctance compounded the problem. Jackson did not want to get hurt and it cost himself financially. With the contract behind him I believe he is poised to return to being one of the most dangerous players in the game, capable of single-handedly winning fantasy match-ups on any given week.
There appears to be at least one thing that rivals Dez Bryant‘s natural ability: his level of immaturity. With a joint statement issued by Bryant and his mother (via their attorney) Tuesday, however, it now appears much less likely that Bryant will face league discipline for his recent arrest. On the football field and in the weight room, things have gone much better for Bryant as he says he’s quicker, faster and stronger this year. (Last year, an injury suffered in Week 1 lingered and slowed him all season.) If Bryant can stay healthy and out of the commissioner’s office, he has the potential for a monster season.
Q2 – Name a high profile receiver who you believe is on track to betray fantasy owners in 2012.
Alessandro Miglio – Pro Football Focus
I am not sure that Jordy Nelson qualifies as “high profile,” but he is being selected as a borderline WR1 right now. Nelson scored 15 touchdowns last season—second only to Megatron—and regression is sure to hit in Green Bay. He was not even targeted 100 times on the season. While he should crack the century mark this year, that is an alarming statistic. Nelson had some big games by virtue of flukey or broken plays. Greg Jennings was also injured for a little while. I just cannot buy Nelson at his ADP when guys like Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant are going after him.
Ryan Lester – Lester’s Legends
Speaking of players that got paid, Vincent Jackson finally got his. Unfortunately for his fantasy outlook, the move to Tampa Bay will likely hinder his performance. For starters, going from Philip Rivers to Josh Freeman is a step back. Additionally, the Buccaneers figure to be a run-first team under new coach Greg Schiano. Jackson will still make big plays, but don’t expect him to put up WR1 numbers in his new home. He’ll be a solid WR2, but he’ll lack consistency.
To be clear, there are plenty of things to like about Brandon Lloyd: (1) his talent, (2) Josh McDaniels’ ability to maximize Lloyd’s production and (3) the quarterback upgrade to Tom Brady, a future first-ballot HoFer. That said, there are too many talented weapons in the Patriots’ offense with Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker and even Jabar Gaffney, who is coming off a career-best season, and only one football. I expect Lloyd to set three-year lows in both receptions and yards this season.
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With so many variables going into the success of a WR’s season, any additional Pros’ insight is highly valued. Big thanks to this edition’s Featured Pros, look out for the next batch of knowledge later this week.
