FootballGuys: Believe It or Not (Week 10)

Nov 8, 2012


Heath Cummings believes the historic performances from Andrew Luck and Doug Martin were a couple of big surprises during Week 9.  Cummings looks ahead to Week 10 and if any of these surprises are developing trends.


Note: This article is part of our series that highlights quality content from premium subscription sites. FootballGuys has been gracious enough to share a weekly article with our users for free. For additional Football Guys insight, you can visit


1) Andrew Luck is the best quarterback  in the 2012 class (433 yards and 2 touchdowns vs. Miami)

Robert Griffin III was all the talk at the beginning of the year, but it’s Luck that’s been on fire as of late. He’s averaged 25 fantasy points per game and has only had one performance below 20 points since week one. After his monster performance against the Dolphins, Luck now ranks 7th amongst quarterbacks in fantasy points scored. He’s still well behind Griffin in that regard, but the two are trending in different directions.


Verdict: Believe it. Luck may not score enough points down the stretch to catch Griffin in 2012 fantasy points, but he’s the better long term solution at quarterback. As a rule, quarterbacks that have great fantasy success their rookie season without relying on rushing yards and touchdowns for a large percentage of those points fare much better in year two and beyond than those that do rely on the ground game. Luck looks like a seasoned veteran after eight weeks in the league and will be a top seven quarterback at worst for the foreseeable


2) Week 8 vs. Seattle was just a mirage for Matthew Stafford (0 touchdown passes vs. Jacksonville)

After a breakout performance against a good Seahawks defense, Stafford went back to killing your fantasy team.

This was the second time this season he was held without a touchdown, something that didn’t happen once in 2011. What’s worse is it came against a Jaguars defense that has been terrible against the pass. Any thought that Stafford’s performance against the Seahawks was going to springboard him to a top five finish is dead.


Verdict: Don’t believe it. After a rough couple of opening drives, Stafford was actually really good in this game. He completed 15 of his final 19 passes and reconnected with Calvin Johnson in a way that has to excite fantasy owners. The lack of touchdowns was really a combination of game script and bad luck. Calvin Johnson was cut down at the one yard line on a 38-yard completion and Titus Young dropped a sure touchdown in the 4th quarter. If there’s an owner in your league that’s growing tired of Stafford, make him an offer.


3) The Bears defense is so good that it’s worth trading top players at other positions for (2 more touchdowns vs. Tennessee, #1 fantasy defense)

The Bears have been downright unbelievable so far this season combining great play with good fortune to score
touchdowns at an alarming rate. The Bears have outscored the second place defense (Houston) by nearly 50% so far this year and because of this there are owners that are starting to consider trading starters at running back and receiver for them.


Verdict: Don’t believe it. Yes, this Bears defense is awesome. Yes, they’re going to finish as the number one overall fantasy defense. But there is no way they’re going to sustain the pace they’ve set so far this season. For one thing, there’s just enough luck involved when it comes to D/ST scores that their first half results scream regression to the mean. More importantly, their schedule gets much more difficult moving forward.


4) Eli Manning is not a top ten fantasy quarterback (125 yards and 0 TD vs. Pittsburgh, #15 amongst QBs in fantasy points)

Manning was projected by many to be a top five fantasy quarterback this season and he’s been flat out
disappointing. Along with Hakeem Nicks, Manning has far underperformed his projections and looks more like
2010 Manning than the player we thought he was developing into last season. He’s gotten worse as the season has gone on to the point that he’s actually being benched in favor of much lower rated options.


Verdict: Believe it. It’s easy to discount Manning’s week nine performance because of the defense he was facing, but week nine was not an anomaly. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since week seven, and he hasn’t thrown more than one in a game since week five. He may see a slight bump with a couple of mediocre pass defenses coming up, but his playoff schedule does not suggest a strong finish.


5) Doug Martin has the top dynasty value amongst all running  backs (251 rushing yards, 4 TDs vs. Oakland)

Martin has put together one of the best two-week stretches in the history of fantasy football. 486 total yards and 6 touchdowns. Just let that soak in for a minute. Now, consider he’s done this against the Vikings  and Raiders, two teams that have been relatively stingy against the run, notwithstanding their performances against Martin. There are plenty of people thinking “sell high” on Martin this week and if you’re in a dynasty league you should absolutely be a buyer.


Verdict: Don’t believe it. Yes, there’s a chance that Martin is the best running back in the league over the next ten years, but it’s probably only a 50/50 shot because Trent Richardson is really special too. However, you have to put more weight on the remainder of this year and the next couple of years, because they’re so much easier to project than five years down the line. That being the case, Martin is a top five back but he still trails Arian Foster, Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson …even if he is outscoring all three for the year after his monster two-week performance.


6) Kyle Rudolph‘s early season success was a mirage (Two fantasy points in his last three games)

Rudolph got a lot of run in the preseason as a sleeper at tight end, and justified that with a very hot start to the season. Since week six though he has been nearly invisible in the Vikings pass attack. While he probably has a couple of good games left just because of his red zone presence, he’s not someone you can count on week to week as a fantasy starter.  


Verdict: Believe it. Even when he was getting a bunch of targets, Rudolph’s success was based almost entirely on his ability to get into the end zone. Now he’s had eight targets in the last three weeks and only turned two of those into receptions. Rudolph still has the tools to be successful, but he’s going to need a more efficient offense and a more accurate quarterback before he becomes a startable tight end.


To view more great content like this, visit our friends at FootballGuys and follow them on Twitter: @Football_Guys

What's your take? Leave a comment

Fantasy Games
DRAFT photo
Get a FREE FantasyPros upgrade with first deposit
FanDuel photo
Play for your share of $1m+
for FREE with first deposit
CBS Sports photo
Serious Fantasy Football
Get our Mobile App!

Enter your phone number below, and we'll text you a link to download the app.

1Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
2Le'Veon Bell (PIT)RB
3Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
4Antonio Brown (PIT)WR
5David Johnson (ARI)RB
6DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
7Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)WR
8Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
9Kareem Hunt (KC)RB
10Julio Jones (ATL)WR
 View All Rankings 
11Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
12Michael Thomas (NO)WR
13Saquon Barkley (NYG)RB
14Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
15A.J. Green (CIN)WR
16Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
17Keenan Allen (LAC)WR
18Davante Adams (GB)WR
19Mike Evans (TB)WR
20LeSean McCoy (BUF)RB
21Devonta Freeman (ATL)RB
22Jordan Howard (CHI)RB
23Rob Gronkowski (NE)TE
24Doug Baldwin (SEA)WR
25Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
26Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
27Adam Thielen (MIN)WR
28Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
29T.Y. Hilton (IND)WR
30Jerick McKinnon (SF)RB
1Mike Trout (LAA)CF
2Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
3Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
4Trea Turner (WSH)SS
5Mookie Betts (BOS)RF
6Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
7Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)1B
8Bryce Harper (WSH)RF
9Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)RF
10Clayton Kershaw (LAD)SP
 View All Rankings 
11Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
12Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
13Carlos Correa (HOU)SS
14Corey Kluber (CLE)SP
15Chris Sale (BOS)SP
16Joey Votto (CIN)1B
17Manny Machado (BAL)3B
18Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B,3B
19Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B,2B
20J.D. Martinez (BOS)RF
21Aaron Judge (NYY)RF
22Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
23George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
24Josh Donaldson (TOR)3B
25Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,LF
26Stephen Strasburg (WSH)SP
27Noah Syndergaard (NYM)SP
28Gary Sanchez (NYY)C
29Jose Ramirez (CLE)2B,3B
30Brian Dozier (MIN)2B
1Kevin Durant (GSW)SF,PF
2Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
3James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
4Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
5Russell Westbrook (OKC)PG
6Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
7Anthony Davis (NOR)PF,C
8Kawhi Leonard (SAS)SG,SF
9LeBron James (CLE)SF,PF
10Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
 View All Rankings 
11John Wall (WAS)PG
12DeMarcus Cousins (NOR)PF,C
13Chris Paul (HOU)PG
14Damian Lillard (POR)PG
15Jimmy Butler (MIN)SG,SF
16Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
17Kyrie Irving (BOS)PG,SG
18Hassan Whiteside (MIA)C,PF
19Myles Turner (IND)PF,C
20Paul George (OKC)SG,SF
21Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
22Draymond Green (GSW)SF,PF
23Kristaps Porzingis (NYK)PF,C
24Kemba Walker (CHA)PG
25CJ McCollum (POR)PG,SG
26Mike Conley (MEM)PG
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Klay Thompson (GSW)SG,SF
29Marc Gasol (MEM)C
30Gordon Hayward (BOS)SG,SF