Closer Report: Heath Bell Won’t Hold Job

Thomas McFeeley provides an update on Closer news from around the diamond and shares his latest Closer Chart.

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A handful of major league bullpens are in flux this week due to injury; about the same number may be in flux this time next week due to performance. Luckily, we’ve got you covered with the names you need to know.  Here is our take on the back of the bullpens this week:

• Arizona: J.J. Putz is injured (I wouldn’t bet on a comeback) and Heath Bell is the closer. Unless you own Heath Bell already, do not pick him up. David Hernandez will be the closer. Bell does not have the skills or conditioning to keep this job. Hernandez has struggled, but owns closer-worthy skills. Keep your eye on Matt Reynolds in case Hernandez does not straighten up. Bell might get you a few more saves, but you can’t count on him as a solid anchor in the back of the pen.

• Cleveland: Chris Perez experienced shoulder stiffness while warming up Sunday and sat out a save chance. When was the last time you read the sentence “Despite shoulder stiffness, Player X went on to shut the door three times this week?” That’s right, you haven’t. Set-up man Vinnie Pestano is injured with elbow tendinitis (I don’t trust any elbow injury). Joe Smith has pitched well, but can’t strike out enough hitters to be the closer. You might want to stash Cody Allen, the 24-year-old rookie – he’s posted 20Ks and  six walks in 16 IP – who picked up the save after Perez’ shoulder issue Sunday. If he can keep his control in check, he could be a good source of saves.

• Boston: Junichi Tazawa is the closer. For now. Joel Hanrahan is out for the season (though he was not closer-worthy anyway); Andrew Bailey *should* return from injury and assume the role, though Tazawa has good skills but hasn’t pitched well lately. Koji Uehara could get a chance should Tazawa struggle and if Bailey is delayed further. Bailey’s forearm issue should keep him out a week and that might be enough time for Tazawa to establish himself as a force. If you own any of these arms, hold them for now, but speculating more than a few days is just a guess.

• Detroit: Jose Valverde blew a save. The first crack. I’m tired of talking about the Tigers bullpen. Just go stash Al Albuquerque. We still think he’s getting the job eventually.

• Tampa Bay: Fernando Rodney has not been great. We’ve downgraded him, but based on Jake McGee’s terrible season thus far, we wouldn’t have much faith in Joel Peralta either.

• Los Angeles: I said Brandon League would lose his job in early May. I was wrong. It will be late May. He’s really scuffling and Kenley Jansen is just flat better. Manager Don Mattingly has already said he’s been thinking about a change.

Confidence Upgrades

• Jim Johnson: Orioles: 85 percent (75 percent last week). I still think he has shaky skills, but he’s been lights-out perfect this year. Can’t argue with success.

• Ernesto Frieri: 80 percent (75 percent last week). He’s been pitching well this week; Ryan Madson is getting closer, but shouldn’t displace him right away.

• Mariano Rivera: 90 percent (85 percent last week). Is there a better athlete in baseball. At age 42, to return from injury and be “even more perfect” is a testament to this Hall-of-Famer. Age may keep him from 95 percent confidence, but that would be about it.

• Casey Janssen: 70 percent (55 percent last week): With Santos still out, there isn’t much behind him and he’s fared well.

Confidence Downgrades

• Craig Kimbrel: 90 percent (98 percent last week).  We think he’s fine, but this long ball issue is a bit puzzling.

• Chris Perez: 35 percent (60 percent last week). Shoulder stiffness plus a good rookie in Cody Allen might spell the beginning of the end here.

• Jose Valverde: 45 percent (60 percent last week): So. Tired. Of. Talking. About. This.

• Brandon League: 25 percent (45 percent last week); As closers go, he’s in a League of his own. The Minor League. If Jansen is available, make it happen today.

Please note we did not upgrade Kevin Gregg in the Cubs bullpen. We won’t and you can’t make us. He’ll get a few more saves, but long-term Kyuji Fujikawa is still the man on the North Side.  I mean we’re talking Kevin Gregg after all. What, did Randy Myers not return your phone calls?

This time next week, we should be talking about three new closers and three more speculative closers for the week ahead. Never a dull moment in baseball.
 

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