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Percy Harvin’s Hip Surgery: What’s the Fantasy Fallout?

Harvin was expected to do big things this season. How should fantasy owners react to the injury?

Harvin was expected to do big things in 2013 until the injury bug hit (again). Photo: Ted S. Warren, AP

 

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know it’s been a brutal week of NFL injury news. Jeremy Maclin (torn ACL) and Dennis Pitta (dislocated hip) are just a few of a growing list of players that have suffered significant injuries. Unfortunately, we can now add Percy Harvin to that group as he will undergo hip surgery that is expected to sideline him for at least 3-4 months.

 

Exactly what type of impact will Harvin’s injury have for fantasy owners? Several featured experts are here to give us their take on the news. We’ll get their opinions on three pressing questions.

 

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Q1: With Harvin expected to be sidelined until *at least* November, is there any merit in stashing him in the late rounds or is he now undraftable?

 

John Paulsen (4for4)

If the 3-4 month timeline is accurate, the best case scenario for a return would be early November, which means Harvin would miss the first eight games of the season. A return in four months means he might be able to play in Week 13. Harvin’s follow-up tweet sounded as if he was resigned to miss the season, but depending on the nature of the surgery, he could return for a late-season run. From a fantasy perspective, he’s only worth a late round draft-and-stash in leagues that have larger (18+) roster sizes unless we learn that he’s expected to return midseason. We won’t know that until we have more clarity about the nature of his injury and the results of the surgery.

 

Mike Clay (Pro Football Focus)

This is very dependent on your league structure. If you have plenty of space on your bench, yes, grab Harvin in the late rounds and stash him until his return. As long as you drafted well early, you’ll be in playoff position. If Harvin returns at or near 100 percent, your chances at a title run improve significantly. On the other hand, leagues with shallow benches won’t allow for enough waiver wire flexbility to justify spending a pick on Harvin. You’re better off grabbing a breakout candidate like Zac Stacy, Rueben Randle, or Coby Fleener.

 

Kevin Roberts (NFL Soup)

Not unless you have a disgustingly deep bench. The reality is, Harvin is out for 3-4 months and possibly the season, so spending a draft pick on him could keep you from rostering a healthy player you really need. The “at least” is the scariest part. What if all you get out of Harvin is two games just so he’s ready for the playoffs? That’s not worth it to me.
 
 
Q2: What Seahawk stands to be the biggest “beneficiary” of the injury and what type of value does he now have?

 

Mike Clay (Pro Football Focus)

There’s been a ton of hype surrounding Golden Tate and I do think it’s justified to an extent. He figures to see about 20 percent of the targets, which puts him in the WR3 conversation while Harvin is out. But my biggest beneficiary is someone at at another position who is getting very little attention despite a strong finish to the 2013 season: Tight End Zach Miller. Like the Seattle offense, Miller got off to a slow start last season, seeing no more than three targets in a game until Week 10. From that point on, however, the veteran handled 19 percent of Russell Wilson’s targets. Miller is going to be plenty involved while Harvin is out and figures to flirt with 60 receptions and a half dozen touchdowns on the year. He’s a TE1 sleeper.
 
John Paulsen (4for4)

At WR, Sidney Rice, Doug Baldwin and (especially) Golden Tate will benefit. Rice is in Switzerland for a non-surgical procedure on his knee, but the team doesn’t seem too worried about his Week 1 availability at this point. Rice and Tate finished 35th and 41st in PPR formats in 2012, so they are both definitely on the fantasy radar once the draft hits double-digits (i.e. the 10th round). Rice could go a tad earlier if it looks like he’s going to make a healthy return in the preseason.

 

Kevin Roberts (NFL Soup)

Golden Tate. Sidney Rice has a knee issue and is never a safe bet to stay healthy, while Tate was already making a name for himself as a play-maker in 2012. If he can continue to develop the way he has been, he could really take his game to the next level in 2013. Even so, I’m not digging him as anything more than a WR3.
 
 
Q3: How much does the injury news impact Russell Wilson’s fantasy value? Are there QBs you will now move ahead of him?

 

John Paulsen (4for4)

Whatever plans the Seahawks may have had to open up the passing game with Harvin’s arrival probably have been scrapped; expect a run-heavy offense that features the highly productive Marshawn Lynch. Harvin’s injury is obviously a blow to Wilson’s upside, though we would still expect him to post top 12 QB numbers given the way he finished his rookie season. I moved him down to #9, below Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III and Tom Brady.

 

Mike Clay (Pro Football Focus)

With Harvin out, Wilson reverts back to what is basically the same offense he was in during the 2012 season. Considering that he was fantasy’s No. 1 scoring quarterback over the final five games of the regular season, there’s not much to be concerned about. With a year of experience under his belt, he’s only going to be better. The Seahawks will continue to run the ball a ton, which does limit Wilson’s ceiling, but his talent and ability to score fantasy points with his legs allows him to remain a middle-of-the-pack QB1.

 

Kevin Roberts (NFL Soup)

Not as much as you’d think. Wilson was awesome in the second half last year with the guys he has now, so he’s already shaping up to ascend even more in his second season. Having Harvin would undoubtedly give Wilson a higher ceiling, but without Harvin, Wilson is still a very good fantasy quarterback.

 

 

Thanks to John, Mike and Kevin for stopping by to give us the fantasy take on Percy Harvin’s injury. You can get more of their advice by visiting their sites and by following them on Twitter:

 

John Paulsen
Mike Clay
Kevin Roberts

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