Are you not happy with the way your team performed last week? If this is you, don’t panic, that’s what we are here for. One way to make a quick fix to your roster is to make a trade or two. Jonathan Pollak of NFLSoup.com helps owners this week decide who the best “buy low” and “sell high” candidates are.
The first week of the National Football League season brought quite a few surprises. Who knew that every running back in the league was actually terrible? Or that backup tight ends were fantasy studs? One cannot put too much stock in a single game, but now that there is official empirical evidence, one can begin making some decisions. Based on their outlier performances, who should one buy and sell for Week Two? Which Week One studs will keep it up, and which ones peaked? Which disasters will rebound, and which will be permanently banished to Tom Coughlin’s doghouse?
For all your concerns and prisoner of the moment thoughts, it’s on to the week 2 Buy and Sell:
Quarterbacks
The quarterback position had its fair share of wonders and blunders, led by Peyton Manning’s seven-touchdown performance. The top guys from the pre-season lists mostly looked fine but keep an eye on which QB2s will ascend to “legitimate starter” status.
BUY
Robert Griffin III, Washington Football Generals – RG3 and the rest of the Washington offense was out of sync on Monday night until putting on a furious but futile flurry late. Remember that Griffin missed the entire preseason and had limited practice time – so he’s going to take a couple of weeks to really get back his extra gear. He travels to Green Bay in Week 2 – the same Packers defense that got shellacked by Colin Kaepernick and still has injury problems in the secondary. The Packers D should improve, but Griffin should be a safe play this season.
Eli Manning, New York Giants – Yes, the three interceptions were awful (is that an officially recognized stat?) but Manning also moved the G-Men down the field very quickly, got 100+ yard games from Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Rueben Randle, and finished with 450 yards and four touchdown passes. With the running game in disarray, Manning will have to continue to air it out. A matchup versus the Denver Broncos in Week Two could very well see over 1000 passing yards between the Manning brothers.
SELL
Terrelle Pryor, Oakland Raiders – The best running back in the AFC is actually a quarterback, as Pryor scrambled for 124 yards in Week One in Indianapolis. He also gets to face Jacksonville at home this week, another point in his favor. But the schedule gets less friendly after that, and teams will scheme to stop both Run-DMC and Pryor, forcing the latter to throw the ball. Until Pryor shows he can handle a better defense, or actually put in 70+ yards each week, his value will still be limited.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – He looked like a good play going into the season, but injuries on an already-lousy offensive line left Big Ben running for his life on Sunday. Monday night brings a trip to Cincinnati, a division rival with a nasty defense and chip on their shoulder. At least Ben will get to spend more time with his new wife and son as he recuperates from the inevitable injuries coming his way.
Running Backs
What a mess! Through Sunday, Pryor was the top rusher in the entire league. Only three 100-yard rushing performances mean that basically every fantasy owner was disappointed last week. Things should return to normal as soon as Week 2 though, so don’t trade your RBs for TEs just yet. The worst RB performance was by the New York Giants’ David Wilson, whose two fumbles gave him a ridiculous -2 score in most leagues. Wilson will still get chances to redeem himself though, since the Giants have no better options.
BUY
Vick Ballard, Indianapolis Colts – Ballard had twice as many carries as Ahmad Bradshaw on Sunday, so it looks like he’s going to be the man in Indy. The Colts will roll with whichever one looks healthier and more effective, and right now, that’s Ballard.
Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots – Shane Vereen looked like to the Patriot to own in Buffalo, but he injured his wrist and will miss half the season – so Ridley will get a chance to re-assert himself. The Jets’ run defense actually looked pretty good last week, so he may not have a huge day, but Ridley could be a solid RB3/Flex option with real RB2 upside.
SELL
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars – MJD gets a weak Raiders D in Week 2, but after that the schedule is quite a bit tougher. Teams will continue to stack the box against the Jags, daring their Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne to beat them. Unfortunately, neither one is up to the task, so MJD’s prospects go down as well unless someone can step up not embarrass himself under center.
Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins – His backup, Daniel Thomas, put up 14 yards and eight carries – and that made him the better back in Cleveland. Miller totaled three yards on ten carries – and no, those numbers not switched around – that’s 0.3 YPC. The Fins’ passing game will continue to improve, perhaps opening some more running room, but unless the Browns are magically the top run defense in the league all year (they aren’t) the pathetic showing in the Miami backfield is troubling. Stay away from these guys until someone shows professional-level ability.
Wide Receivers
Wide Receiver was a mixed bag in Week One, but most of the big guys like A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas justified their draft positions. Danny Amendola looked good too, until – shocking! – he got hurt. He’ll miss at least one game.
BUY
Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals – Welcome pack, Arizona passing game – how we’ve missed you! Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts and Floyd all put up decent numbers last week, with Floyd making a highlight-reel one-handed 44-yard catch. That kind of big-play ability will let QB Carson Palmer target him more, especially in the red zone, where Floyd is big enough to produce.
Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons – Yes, that was disappointing, and the injury concerns are legit. But White is too talented to stay down long, and the schedule is fluffy from a pass-defense standpoint. They might take it easy on him for another week or two. He’s a great guy to buy low and stash for later on this season, if you have the roster space.
SELL
Anquan Boldin, Baltimore Ravens – How can Boldin be on the “Sell” list? He had 13 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown versus Green Bay! The fact is that Boldin is 32 with an injury history, faces better defenses starting next week in Seattle, and is four years removed from his last 1000-yard season. He has reached the apex of his value, so if another owner offers you the house in hopes of another 200-yard-game, don’t be shy about accepting the offer.
Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins – Wallace got paid in the offseason, saw his team win by two scores in Week One, and then bitched and moaned to the media and coaches and owner that he didn’t get the ball enough. Yes, he was under-utilized, but that was partially due to being double-teamed. The Fins didn’t pay all that money to not keep him involved, but the fact that his attitude couldn’t be held in check for even a single game is a frightening sign. Making QB Ryan Tannehill force-feed him the ball on ever other passing play is a recipe for disaster.
Tight Ends
The biggest surprises came at tight end, which saw guys that casual fans (and uneducated fantasy players) haven’t heard of, putting up huge numbers. Some are sustainable, some not, as the list will show.
BUY
Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns – The Browns’ offense was predictably lousy, but Cameron had a career game, with nine catches for 108 yards and a touchdown. The Browns visit Baltimore next week, which was once a bad time, but this is a Ravens team that was eviscerated by a backup tight end in the season opener. Cameron is clearly the best choice for QB Brandon Weeden.
Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams – Cook is another tight end who took his play to previously-unheard of levels, hauling in seven passes for 141 yards and a TD. With a raw and suspect receiving corps, Rams QB Sam Bradford wasn’t shy about going Cook’s way, and his long gains made him look like a wide receiver out there. He may start seeing more attention from defenses, though.
SELL
Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles – Celek picked up 56 yards and a TD on Monday night – but on only two catches, and three targets. QB Michael Vick looked to his wide receivers more, and a heavy dose of running game (49 carries, including 31 for LeSean McCoy, vs. 25 passes) will limit his touches. Rookie TE Zach Ertz also saw three targets and will get more involved in the offense as the season goes along. Celek is a TE2 right now and should not be rostered in shallow leagues.
Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos – The unquestioned surprise star of Week One, Thomas went from third on the depth chart to hauling in five catches for 110 yards and two TDs. Thomas is obviously a legitimate fantasy option now, but the face that QB Peyton Manning has to spread the ball around so much between three amazing wide receivers means that Thomas will see fewer looks most week. Don’t be afraid to sell high on him. And if you say you picked up Thomas as your injury replacement for Rob Gronkowski, you’re probably lying and I hate you.
Defense/Special Teams
Many owners prefer to stream team defenses, depending on matchups. This week was further proof that there’s nothing wrong with that strategy, assuming you’re fast enough on the waiver wire.
BUY
Baltimore Ravens – What’s that you say? The Ravens were obliterated by Peyton Manning on Thursday? This is true. It’s also true that the Ravens have had ten days to lick their wounds, and get a still-weak Cleveland Browns team in Baltimore for Week Two. The Ravens turned over a good chunk of the roster, especially on defense, and it will take a little bit of time for it to gel. But there is still plenty of talent on this defense, and Head Coach John Harbaugh will use it as a teaching moment.
SELL
Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs were dominant, giving up only 178 yards and two points (that’s right, the only opposing score was a safety) – but it was in Jacksonville against the putrid Jaguars. The Chiefs have talent on D and will be a strong play some weeks – but don’t expect another performance like this one.
IDP
Teams are still feeling out their new offensive and defensive schemes, so IDP production will take another week or two to really begin to stabilize.
BUY
Bront Bird, Inside Linebacker, San Diego Chargers – Bird was only in the lineup because of Manti Te’o’s injury, but he popped in for 14 tackles, including ten solo, and a big stop on a fourth-down play. As long as Bird plays well, the Bolts will keep him in the lineup and bring Te’o back very slowly.
SELL
Dimitri Patterson, Cornerback, Miami Dolphins – Injuries opened the door for journeyman Patterson to man a starting cornerback spot – but he doesn’t have much track record in the past, and won’t have Brandon Weeden to pick off anymore. Don’t expect another two-pick game.
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View more Week 2 articles from NFL Soup:
– Julius Thomas, Lamar Miller and Week Two Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers
– Danny Amendola to Miss More Than Just Week 2?
– Week 2 Waiver Wire: Terrelle Pryor and Top Adds
