Heath Cummings from FootballGuys.com analyzes some of the key performances from last week, and what they mean moving forward.
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Week eight was phenomenal in many regards, but none so ridiculous as the performances we saw in the passing game. A sophomore receiver that had never caught more than five passes in one game caught four touchdowns in a single week. A defense that knew it had to stop only one real threat in the passing game allowed that receiver to challenge the single game receiving record. On the flip side, one of the game’s elite quarterbacks doesn’t look so elite anymore, even with his best weapon back on the field. Are these performances anomalies, or do they really mean something? We’ll look at that and more in this week’s Believe It or Not.
1. Marvin Jones is the second option the Bengals have been looking for at receiver and a WR2 for the rest of the year.
Jones’ day was easily the most surprising happening of week eight. On 19 snaps he saw 8 targets. He caught all 8 passes, including 4 for touchdowns. The Bengals have a ton of young receivers around superstar A.J. Green and they’ve been waiting for one of them to step up and provide a threat on the other side of the field. Jones has the talent and after this performance he should see a huge uptick in opportunity.
Verdict: Don’t believe it. Not the WR2 part at least. Jones is a talented young receiver that should see more opportunity, but this offense is loaded with young options and they’ll still likely take turns taking the pressure off of Green. Andrew Hawkins returns soon, Sanu is going nowhere, and Tyler Eifert continues to improve. Jones is likely a WR3/Flex for the rest of the year that will be inconsistent.
2. The Dallas Cowboys defense is one to target when selecting receivers.
Calvin Johnson’s performance was incredibly impressive, but it’s a little bit baffling how you let a guy like him go off like that on you when you know the ball is going his way. If they can’t stop Johnson when there really isn’t anyone else to worry about, how can we expect them to stop anyone. Target the Cowboys in daily leagues, and any time you have a lineup decision to make.
Veridict: Don’t believe it. In the two weeks before this matchup the Cowboys held both Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson to less than 70 yards and no touchdowns. The moral of the story is, most WR1s aren’t Calvin Johnson. Don’t base your opinion of the Cowboys secondary on their performance against Johnson.
3. Tom Brady is done as a QB1.
Brady started the season off in a really tough spot. He was missing almost all of his offense from 2012, and his new acquisition was injured almost immediately. Brady finally got Rob Gronkowski in week seven and things haven’t exactly gotten better. No quarterback in the NFL has started the last the last two weeks and scored less fantasy points than Brady.
Verdict: Believe it. For all the talk about Brady’s weapons, he himself is 36 years old and has not looked anywhere close to the same at quarterback. He’s still a really good NFL quarterback, but he’s no longer an elite fantasy quarterback. It’s been a month since he threw for more than one touchdown in a game and he’s topped 300 yards just once all year. Don’t count on him as your starting quarterback in 2013.
4. Zac Stacy is the second best running back in the rookie class of 2013.
Stacy put an incredible performance on in week eight against the Seahawks, totaling 134 rushing yards against one of the most fearsome defenses in the league. Stacy has had at least 78 yards in every game since he took over and at least 87 yards in his last three. He’s done that against the Texans, Panthers, and Seahawks so there’s a good chance he’s even better in the second half.
Verdict: Believe it, at least from a fantasy perspective in 2013. Giovani Bernard is more talented than Stacy, but it remains to be seen if he can be a feature back. With Stacy there is no such concern, and I love his hard-nosed running style. His schedule gets easier in the second half and it’s very possible we seem him make a major statement down the stretch.
5. Marques Colston is done as a WR1.
Colston posted a 3-18-0 on Sunday. Pretty terrible for the team’s alleged WR1 right? Actually, it was his best game in three weeks. Colston’s broken 10 fantasy points just once this entire season in standard scoring leagues, and it isn’t as if the Saints offense is struggling. With the statement made by Kenny Stills in week eight don’t be surprised if Colston stays ice cold.
Verdict: Believe it. The thing I have been most surprised by is how slow Colston looks. His targets are down, but even when he gets targeted he’s absolutely blanketed. It looks like he’s hit a brick wall at age 30, and it’s hard to see a reason to project a major turn around. The Saints have plenty of young receivers to fill the void, and Colston just isn’t cutting it anymore.
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