Jeff Haseley of FootballGuys.com catches readers up with his week 5 cliff notes, examining hot topics for every NFL team.
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Running Back Rashard Mendenhall is starting to fall out of favor of Bruce Arians, which potentially opens the door for Andre Ellington to see more touches going forward. While the Arizona offensive line and subsequent running game is not among the league’s best, Ellington is someone that I can see increasing in value as the season goes on. Wide Receiver Michael Floyd is also starting to make his move as the true WR2 behind Larry Fitzgerald. Floyd has 16 targets in the last two games, compared to 15 by Fitzgerald and 6 by Andre Roberts.
To those who wanted to write off Tony Gonzalez, not so fast. After a sensational 12-149-2 game vs. New England, he looks just as capable as he always has. Could that be the spark that further ignites his farewell season? Could be. Jacquizz Rodgers has earned his way into a flex option role, especially in PPR leagues. He appears to be the main beneficiary ahead of Jason Snelling while Steven Jackson (hamstring) is out. Roddy White is starting to look like his old self again, but he doesn’t quite seem all the way there yet. The Falcons bye is week 6. I think it’s safe to assume he’ll be 100% for week 7.
Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce were rarely used last week once the Ravens fell behind the Bills. When he was given touches, Rice looked very nimble and showed good acceleration and cutting ability. You can probably get him for a discount right now from your leaguemate who isn’t that thrilled with him. He may wind up being one of the better buy low candidates this season. Dallas Clark has at least 7 targets and no more than 12 targets in three of four games this year. Torrey Smith has not had a game this year with less than 85 yards receiving. If he consistently finds the end zone, he’ll be a Top 12 wide receiver. I think he’s due to turn it up another notch. He’s by far the best deep receiving threat on the team and Joe Flacco has the arm to get him the ball.
Week four injuries were not very kind to the Bills running game. C.J. Spiller sprained his ankle and Fred Jackson banged up his knee. Interestingly enough, both are expected to play this Thursday night at Cleveland, but Spiller may be more limited. Fred Jackson has totaled over 100 yards or scored a touchdown in each game this season. He is quietly deserving of a weekly fantasy start, despite the presence of C.J. Spiller getting the majority of the team’s carries. Rookie wide receivder Robert Woods has been off and on this year and there is no indication of when that might be. He is playing like consistent production is right around the corner. This week may be another positive for Woods, especially if Steve Johnson isn’t fully healed from his hamstring discomfort. After a one catch for -1 yards game against the Ravens, you may want to visit an option other than Johnson this week until he proves otherwise. Monitor his practice schedule during the week to see if he practices in full.
After losing two winnable games, the Panthers reached pay dirt in a big way by destroying the Giants. Cam Newton is spreading the ball around and is also making plays scrambling, as well as designed runs. His yardage numbers have dropped, but he is doing a good job of sustaining drives. Carolina is fourth in the league in third down conversion percentage (49%). Heading into last week’s bye, DeAngelo Williams was third in the NFL in rushing and has elevated his standing as a fantasy RB to consider going forward. Jonathan Stewart (ankle) is looking like he may be a week 7 return when he comes off the PUP list. He will cut into some of Williams’ carries, but I still think Carolina will rely on Williams as the primary rushing threat moving forward.
I mentioned last week that Alshon Jeffery outperformed Brandon Marshall in week three. At the time, I didn’t think much of it. However…he did it again in week four this time with a touchdown and two point conversion. I’m not ready to devalue Marshall, but Jeffery’s emergence should definitely be noted. He is quickly becoming a weekly flex option or potential WR3. DeAndre Hopkins was on a similar path and then followed up with a three-target game last week. If Jeffery can maintain consistency, he will shoot up the weekly rankings. A week after we’re told that Michael Bush will handle goal line duties, Matt Forte had only three of 14 carries on the opponent’s side of the 50 yard line. He did score on a 53-yard run, but the lack of touches on the opposite side of the 50 is a little concerning. I’ll keep tabs on this in the coming weeks.
Giovani Bernard has 10 catches in the last two games, after having just two catches in the first two games. His touches has increased each of the first four games (5, 9, 14, 16). Conversely, Benjarvus Green-Ellis’ touches have mostly dropped (15, 23, 10, 6). We may not see a full changing of the guard at running back, but make no mistake, the Bengals are definitely getting Bernard more involved. Neither Bengals tight end (Gresham or Eifert) has scored a touchdown this year, but Jermaine Gresham has a slight edge on Tyler Eifert for fantasy value. That could change as the season progresses, but for now, Gresham has the inside track for fantasy production.
Both Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron are great compliments to each other. Both should be started in all formats. The fantasy success of this tandem is carrying over to team wins, despite the trade of Trent Richardson and the need for Brian Hoyer to replace Brandon Weeden (thumb). Hoyer has been a key contributor for the Browns and it’s highly possible that he’ll keep the job for the rest of the season. Hoyer’s level of play has elevated others around him and he himself is considered a high end QB2 if he continues to put up similar numbers going forward.
DeMarco Murray is averaging 5.2 receptions per game and it’s increasing his total yards output. If he can start to punch the ball over the goal line more frequently (1 touchdown in four games), he’ll be that much closer to an elite fantasy RB. Miles Austin (hamstring) sat out week five and rookie WR Terrence Williams picked up the slack in his absence with a 7-71 game. Jason Witten has 21 receptions with 2 touchdowns in four games so far. He’s on pace for 86 catches and 8 touchdowns.
All four receiving threats (Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker and Julius Thomas) are match up proof and should be fantasy starts each week. As good as Manning’s offense is, it’s likely that one of the four could have a less than ideal fantasy week. It’s virtually impossible to determine which player that would be on a week to week basis, but Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker appear to be the front-runners for every week dominance. Eric Decker and Julius Thomas are often fighting for the next highest fantasy points. The running game is a RBBC approach between two, if not three backs. Total touches so far Knowshon Moreno 54, Montee Ball 41, Ronnie Hillman 30. Right now, it’s hard to predict fantasy value from week to week, but an injury to one or more backs would give the surviving back a very good fantasy outlook, even if just temporary. Just to give you an idea how well Peyton Manning is playing – he has a season quarterback rating of 138.0.
The loss of Nate Burleson (arm) was thought to be replaced by Ryan Broyles, however it was Brandon Pettigrew who benefited most in week four. It’s possible that Broyles eventually will receive more playing time, but until then, keep him on your bench. Calvin Johnson has four touchdowns this year. He had five all last year. Matthew Stafford has 7 touchdown passes so far. He had only 20 last year. Reggie Bush appears to be a lock for over 100 total yards per game. The concern was the number of touchdowns he would have. So far, he has two, which put him on pace for 8 for the year.
The Packers are coming off their bye which was perfectly timed for Eddie Lacy, who is recovering from a week two concussion. Lacy has returned to practicing in full and should be back to full health, ready to contribute in week five. The only problem, in his absence, two Packers running backs rushed for 100 yards – James Starks and Johnathan Franklin. Lacy may get the nod as the starter, however I will be surprised if we don’t see or Franklin (and possibly Starks) getting some reps as well. The bye also came at a good time for tight end Jermichael Finley, who is recovering from a week three concussion. His status is yet to be determined for week five, so keep tabs throughout the week. All eight of Aaron Rodgers touchdown passes have gone to either Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, James Jones or Jermichael Finley this year. In other words, Rodgers’ main targets. Good news from a fantasy perspective.
Arian Foster looks like he is back as the lead running back for the Texans. In a game where they needed him the most, he had 33 total touches for over 170 yards with a touchdown. And that was against the Seahawks defense. In other words, things are looking up for Foster. Say what you want about Matt Schaub, but he has 45, 48, 35 and 49 pass attempts this year. He has three of four games he has 346, 298 and 355 yards passing with 8 total touchdown passes. He may make poor decisions and throw pick six’s, but he’s the 10th ranked QB right now.
Reggie Wayne and Coby Fleener are the only active Colts receivers with a touchdown reception (Dwayne Allen the other). Fleener has had two strong games and two duds so far. This week the Colts host the Seahawks. It’s not the best matchup, but if the game plays out like it did for Houston last week against Seattle, it could be a decent fantasy producing day for Andrew Luck, Reggie Wayne, Coby Fleener, Trent Richardson and potentially T.Y. Hilton. I am not sold on Trent Richardson being a true elite running back. His sample size continues to increase and the results are slightly above average at best. We’ll see if the needle tilts up for Richardson in the coming weeks, but right now, I’m not liking his long term outlook, compared to his expectations.
The biggest news in Jaguars camp is the return of Justin Blackmon from his four game suspension. Last year, Blackmon ended on a good note, with 38 catches for over 600 yards and four touchdowns in the last seven games. Keep in mind, that was with Chad Henne at quarterback, not Blaine Gabbert. Cecil Shorts has been the go-to receiving threat for the first four weeks of the season. Despite not catching a touchdown yet, Shorts is the 24th ranked WR in PPR format. Will Blackmon have a similar effect on the offense like Josh Gordon did for Cleveland? I’m thinking no, but he will help. I think expectations are 5 receptions for 60 yards and we’ll see where it goes. Don’t expect the moon, but you may be pleasantly surprised. This is Jacksonville we’re talking about here. Starting quarterbacks (Henne) have one touchdown pass and 7 interceptions so far.
Jamaal Charles is doing exactly what I thought he would do in Andy Reid’s offense. He’s getting a ton of targets (35 to lead all RBs) with 23 receptions. He has nearly 300 yards rushing and just over 200 yards receiving. He has four total touchdowns, two each rushing and receiving. He and Reggie Bush are doing their best Marshall Faulk impersonation this season. Have you noticed? Tight end Sean McGrath, the one with the Brett Keisel-like beard, has 9 catches in the last two games, including a touchdown. Andy Reid historically likes to involve his tight ends, so this is playing right into a regular role with the team. He’s a decent waiver claim if you’re in dire need of a tight end.
First the surprising news. Charles Clay is ranked 7th among tight ends after four games. He has 5, 5, 4 and 6 receptions in each game so far. He has more fantasy points than Jason Witten, Jared Cook, Vernon Davis and Brandon Myers, among others. He is quietly making a name for himself. As long as Ryan Tannehill continues to put up 35 pass attempts a game, Clay should continue to put forth consistent numbers. Lamar Miller has scored a touchdown in two of the last three games. He’s starting to distance himself from Daniel Thomas and has looked good in the process. He is no more than a flex play right now, but the needle is pointing up for Miller. Mike Wallace has one good outing in four games so far. Consistency has been a big problem so far for Wallace. He is probably starting to fall out of favor of those who drafted him and I don’t recommend buying low.
Bye week. Next three games CAR, @NYG, GB
What Tom Brady is doing with his inexperienced team is nothing short of amazing. Kenbrell Thompkins is the 25th ranked WR in PPR format, despite only 15 catches. Take advantage of him now, because Danny Amendola is looking like he may be back this week, while Rob Gronkowski is eyeing a week 6 return. In four games, Julian Edelman has not had less than 7 receptions in a game. I think he will continue to be a threat even with the return of Amendola. I would try to get whatever I could for Stevan Ridley. He looks good, but the RBBC with Brandon Bolden and LeGarrette Blount is hurting any value he had. Not only that, but there’s only five more games until Shane Vereen returns.
It’s possible that Kenny Stills will work his way into a consistent role with the Saints, but I’m betting against it, especially with Lance Moore returning at some point. The Saints offense can put up points, but the only true fantasy threats for Drew Brees are Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and Darren Sproles. Pierre Thomas may have 4, 4, 6, and 5 receptions this year, but the rushing yards aren’t coming with it. He’s a flex option or bye week filler at running back, but that may be his ceiling this year, unless the Saints improve in the run game. Only one Saints back (Thomas) has over 10 carries in a game this year. That’s not a very potent running game.
Victor Cruz has four of Eli Manning’s six touchdown passes this year. He is the lone positive on a team full of disappointment right now. Cruz is currently ranked 2nd among wide receivers, behind only Julio Jones. This week the Giants will try to right the ship against the Eagles, who have given up 27, 33, 26 and 52 points this year. Not only is Cruz a strong play, but so is Hakeem Nicks, Reuben Randle, Brandon Myers and David Wilson. I will not be shocked at all to see David Wilson have a productive game against the Eagles this week. We’ve been seeing hints of his breakout for the last few weeks. He’s due.
Santonio Holmes (hamstring) is going to be out for multiple weeks and Stephen Hill (concussion) is looking like he will be out this week. That leaves Jeremy Kerley, Clyde Gates and Kellen Winslow as the only serviceable replacements. David Nelson (CLE) was signed this week, but it’s unclear how much he will see the field. Mike Goodson returns from suspension, but we don’t know how many reps he’ll receive. Bilal Powell should once again be featured rather heavily, both as a rusher and receiver. As a result, he’s a good start this week. Geno Smith has 7 interceptions in the last three weeks. If you’re looking for a fantasy defense this week, consider Atlanta at home against the Jets.
Darren McFadden (hamstring) will not play this week, which opens the door for Rashad Jennings against the Chargers. San Diego has not given up a 100 yard game to a running back this year, no have they allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back. Jennings had 8 catches last week in relief of McFadden totaling over 110 combined rushing and receiving yards. Jennings is a good, but not great waiver claim this week. He may only see a few games and there’s little chance for a full time role when McFadden returns.
The Eagles travel to New York to face the determined Giants this week. Defense has been an issue with this team all year, which has been the main reason behind a 1-3 record. Offensively, DeSean Jackson leads the way and is the only player on the team with more than 12 receptions and 150 yards receiving. Last week was the first game this year where LeSean McCoy did not reach 100 total yards. I expect to see a bounce back game from McCoy this week. Michael Vick has just one touchdown pass and two interceptions in the last two games. He should be able to find some success against the Giants this week who have given up 10 touchdown passes in four games.
Bye week – Next three games @NYJ, BAL, @OAK
The Chargers surprisingly have a few strong fantasy options, however none are named Ryan Mathews. Philip Rivers has 11 touchdown passes with just two interceptions. He is the 4th ranked quarterback after the first quarter of the season. Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead are turning into weekly fantasy starts. Eddie Royal has shown the ability to be in the right place at the right time. Just when defenses will forget about him, Rivers will find him again. Danny Woodhead has 22 catches this year (8, 7, and 5 receptions in the last three games). I mentioned last week that he’s a poor man’s Darren Sproles. Now he has the numbers to back that up. Not only is he getting looks as a receiver, he’s also finding the end zone. Look for Woodhead to continue to see plenty of targets going forward.
Russell Wilson is the 21st ranked quarterback after four games. He has just six touchdown passes (four of which came against the Jaguars) and now must go to Indianapolis, who have allowed just two passing touchdowns all year. This doesn’t feel like a good game to hope Wilson finds his scoring touch. It does, however present Marshawn Lynch in a positive light. Look for the Seahawks to establish the run early to control the game. Other than Lynch, I don’t see a big fantasy game for Wilson and Seahawks this week.
The 49ers weren’t exactly firing on all cylinders against the Rams last Thursday night, but they got the job done. The extended break probably helped Vernon Davis recover from his rib injury. Colin Kaepernick plays better when he is in the lineup. Frank Gore showed that he can still be a threat. He’s a good RB2 option to have each week. I wouldn’t expect Kaepernick to have a big passing game. Houston has not allowed a quarterback to pass for more than 200 yards in a game this year. In fact, they have not allowed more than 17 completions in any game. Last week Russell Wilson ran for 77 yards on 10 carries against Houston. We could see a heavy dose of that from Kaepernick, but I’m not too keen on a big fantasy game this week.
Start your Rams this week against the Jaguars at home. Jacksonville has allowed 45 and 37 points in the last two games with 7 touchdown passes against. Sam Bradford looks like a very good start this week at home. As does Jared Cook, Tavon Austin and Chris Givens, not to mention the Rams defense. If St. Louis can’t right the ship this week, they may struggle to find consistency all year long.
Bye week – Next three games PHI @ATL, CAR
The Titans host the 4-0 Chiefs this week in what will be a big game in Nashville. Tennessee is coming off a big victory against the Jets with plenty of momentum on their side. They will have to move forward multiple weeks without Jake Locker, who injured his hip last week. His return date is unknown at this time. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start in his place. Kendall Wright and Nate Washington were his top targets in limited action last week. If you recall, Washington’s long 77 yard touchdown came from Fitzpatrick. This is a perfect time for the Titans to lean on Chris Johnson. I’m not going to say he’ll have a big game, but I will be surprised if he doesn’t surpass 20 carries in this game.
Bye week – Next three games @DAL, CHI, @DEN
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