Bob Henry of FootballGuys.com gives owners a rundown of the top offensive sleepers for week 13.

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This article takes a look at players from each of the positions in your starting lineup who have interesting matchups. Not all players covered are your classic sleepers who might outperform expectations. Some are nominal starters with tricky matchups or players who might be starters in smaller leagues, but deep sleepers in larger leagues. Realizing that leagues and roster sizes vary wildly; your mileage could vary, too.
 

Quarterbacks

Alex Smith, KC vs. Den
After throwing for 230 yards, 2 TDs and no interceptions and adding 52 yards rushing just two weeks ago in Denver, Smith faces the Broncos again. Smith has produced 23 or more fantasy points against in three of his last four games and the Broncos are allowing the fifth most points to QBs. Making matters worse for the Broncos, they have multiple injured starters that could be limited or inactive for this week’s game with a short week having lost in New England on Monday night as Tom Brady took a while to warm up in the cold weather but still finished with 344 yards and 3 TDs.

Josh McCown, Chi at Min
In McCown’s three starts this year he has thrown for 840 yards, 5 TDs and just one interception while averaging a healthy 21 fantasy points per game against the Packers, Ravens and Rams. Needless to say, he hasn’t faced a matchup quite as favorable as the Vikings this week. There is a lot about McCown to like as a sleeper starter this week beginning with his elite level weapons in Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte and even Martellus Bennett, plus the Vikings are allowing the most points to quarterbacks over the last four weeks and the second most for the season. On Sunday, the Packers benched Scott Tolzien after a slow first half (despite a heck of a run and spin move for a touchdown run) as Matt Flynn led the Packers to a win in the second half with 218 yards and a TD. The two combined for 316 yards passing, 49 yards rushing and 2 TDs. With McCown playing so efficiently, the Bears can afford to let Jay Cutler fully heal before returning to the lineup.

Andy Dalton, Cin at SD
Since week 7 opponents are throwing for an average of 300 yards per game against the Chargers. They’ve given up 8 touchdown passes in their last three games and have allowed the fourth most points to opposing quarterbacks for the season. After throwing for 300+ yard games and 29+ fantasy points in three straight games in Weeks 6 through 8, Dalton’s last three games have been awful with 5 TDs and 8 INTs and lucky Hail Mary that buoyed his stats two weeks ago. It’s hard to trust Dalton, but he has two strong matchups in Week 14 (vs. Ind) and Week 16 (vs. Min), making this a good litmus test for the playoff weeks ahead.

Ryan Tannehill, Mia at NYJ
Over the last four weeks, the Jets have allowed the third most points to quarterbacks and now the Jets could be without their top corner Antonio Cromartie after he aggravated a lingering hip injury. That should boost the potential for the now-starting-to-click Tannehill to Mike Wallace connection. The Jets have allowed 10 TDs and an average of 306 passing yards per game in that span. If there’s concern it’s more about how the Dolphins will hold up in the trenches against a very physical Jets defensive front. Tannehill has probably been the most consistent fantasy option among QB2 scoring between 17 and 22 points every game this year. His deep ball remains inconsistent, but you’ll have a difficult time finding a more reliable QB2 with a higher floor. On the flipside, his ceiling might not be as high as the others on this list below.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ten at Ind
Over the last five weeks, the Colts have allowed 11 touchdown passes, 304 yards per game and the second most points to QBs in that stretch while intercepting just one pass. Fitzpatrick is one of those quarterbacks during that span as he completed 22-of-28 for 222 yards and a TD with 26 yards rushing against them in Week 11. Not great production, but 18 fantasy points is at least close enough to low-end QB1 numbers to consider him. It was also his low mark as a starter for the Titans this year. In his four starts, Fitzpatrick has tallied 25 or more points in his other three starts. He has a floor as a strong QB2 but his upside extends well into the low QB2 range for standard-sized leagues.

Carson Palmer, Ari at Phi
Everything seems to coming together in the second half for Carson Palmer. The Cardinals are winning. Larry Fitzgerald is finally healthy. Michael Floyd has emerged as a productive big play threat on the other side. Even Rob Housler is healthy and even moderately productive. They’ve also faced three cupcake matchups in four weeks (Atl, Hou, Jax and Ind). This week, it’s another good matchup against an Eagles defense allowing the seventh most points to QBs and over 300 yards per game in their last 5 games. I’m leery of Palmer and the Cardinals away from home, much less traveling all the way to Philadelphia and potentially in bad weather given his tendency to throw interceptions in bundles. Use him in deeper leagues, or as a QB2 with upside, but otherwise there is enough risk involved here to consider other safer options like Josh McCown or Ryan Fitzpatrick in games played indoors.

Eli Manning, NYG at Was
Like Andy Dalton, only far, far worse, Eli Manning is a player that is extremely hard to trust. For that matter, I’d be surprised if he’s even rostered in 10 (possibly 12) team leagues. Manning has calmed down a bit with the interceptions (just two in his last 5 games) but he has thrown for more than 250 yards only once in the last six games despite having excellent matchups against teams like Minnesota, Dallas, Oakland and Philadelphia twice. He has more great matchups ahead of him, too, with Washington twice, Detroit, San Diego and Seattle (minus two of their top three corners). Washington has allowed the third most points to QBs, so one should expect Manning to at least produce 18-to-20 points, but the facts of the matter are that he has made it to 18 points three times all year and not once since Week 5. Keep Manning rostered and on deck in deeper leagues, but otherwise there simply has to be better options available.

Matt Flynn, GB at Det
For Flynn is has been quite a journey since the last time he started against the Detroit Lions. In Week 17 of the 2011 season, Flynn threw for 480 yards and 6 TDs against the Lions. Since then, Flynn has bounced around the league after losing out to Russell Wilson and Terrelle Pryor for starting gigs in Seattle and Oakland. He landed back in Green Bay and now finds himself starting for the injured Aaron Rodgers against another weak Lions pass defense allowing the fourth most points to QBs in the last four weeks and the 10th most on the season. It’s an inviting scenario, but one that you should enter into cautiously. The Lions have allowed 14 TDs and intercepted only one pass in their last five games, but they’ve lost a pair of close games in back-to-back weeks, the division is on the line and it’s the first meaningful games the Lions have played on Thanksgiving in over a decade.

Running Backs

Andre Brown, NYG at Was
Brown has firmly re-established himself with 350 total yards and a TD over the last three games and this week he faces a Washington defense allowing the seventh most points to RBs. For those of you in smaller leagues it’s time to get off that fence and put your faith into Brown as a likely RB1 this week. The Giants are slowly rounding back into shape and even at 4-7 they’re still very much in the NFC East race. Look for Tom Coughlin to continue riding Brown until the wheels fall off, which unfortunately is a distinct possibility given his history of leg/knee injuries. Until that happens, get Brown into your lineup and keep him there.

Rashad Jennings & Darren McFadden, Oak at Dal
Daren McFadden is expected to return this week, but it looks like the Raiders coaching staff are going to “ride the hot hand” and continue to start Rashad Jennings while working McFadden into the mix as a change-of-pace option. Jennings has definitely outperformed expectations with McFadden sidelined and he should continue to produce at a high level against a Cowboy defense that has allowed the most points to running backs. There is possibly even enough to go around here for McFadden to carry low-RB2 value in deeper league or otherwise consideration as a flex option. In their last three games, Andre Brown, Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson have run for 127, 145 and 140 yards respectively. Cowboys star MLB Sean Lee isn’t expected to play on Thanksgiving, which should translate into a fantasy rich matchup for both Raider running backs to exploit.

Ben Tate, Hou vs. NE
Coming off a horrific performance against what was supposed to be an excellent matchup against a poor Jaguars run defense, it’s going to take a tremendous leap of faith to trust Tate again, especially with the playoff fate of many teams hanging in the balance this week. Yet Gary Kubiak is sticking with him as the Texans starter even though Dennis Johnson looked much healthier, fresher and ran with more energy. Tate has only two games with more than 10 fantasy points this year, but he is averaging 4.2 YPC and has caught 29 passes. Even after Johnson seemed to take over late in the game, Tate remained involved in the passing game so his role/job is probably safe making him a viable, if not dangerous, RB2/flex option with plenty of upside against a Patriots defense gutted up the middle by injuries allowing the 12th most points to RBs. The Broncos backs ran for 280 yards as Knowshon Moreno had a career day with 224 yards and a TD.

Montee Ball, and possibly C.J. Anderson, Den at KC
It’s too early to tell if Knowshon Moreno will be well enough to practice later in the week after carrying the ball 37 times on Monday night, leaving with a bone bruise to his ankle. If Moreno is able to go, though, the Broncos will want to feature him since he seems to be the only back on the roster that can hold onto the football and pass protect for Peyton Manning. If Moreno is a no-go, Ball would likely start and barring yet another fumble, likely lead the team in carries. Even if Moreno goes, Ball probably gets 12 to 15 touches with a better than 50% chance of scoring. He has scored 3 TDs in four weeks and scored twice against the Chiefs two weeks ago. The Chiefs also lost both starting outside linebackers on Sunday and they continue to be without DE Mike DeVito. C.J. Anderson will likely be part of a rotation with Ball if Moreno is inactive. For the sake of comparison, consider that Danny Woodhead (70 yards, 2 TDs) and Ryan Mathews (65 yards, 1 TD) provided valuable fantasy contributions last week against the Chiefs. And a gimpy C.J. Spiller totaled 155 yards against them in Week 10 while Fred Jackson also combined for 99 yards. There’s enough room here for both Moreno and Ball, or Ball and Anderson to be worthwhile as a RB2/flex depending on your league size.

Shane Vereen & Brandon Bolden, NE at Hou
After Stevan Ridley coughed up his fourth fumble of the year on Monday night, he didn’t see the field again. LeGarrette Blount met the same fate after losing a fumble as well. Brandon Bolden and Shane Vereen both played well and they would seem to be the odds on favorites to garner the majority of touches against the Texans 22nd ranked run defense on Sunday. Vereen’s role won’t change unless he loses a fumble of his own, but he could see an uptick in carries to strengthen his already solid RB2 value in PPR leagues, flex value in non-PPR. Bolden looks like the favorite to start or at least get the most carries in the Patriots’ big back role. Bolden also catches the ball well and can hammer it at the goal line. Ridley and/or Blount could still see carries, but one has to think Bolden will get first crack at the job on Sunday.

Steven Jackson, Atl at Buf
Jackson and Ray Rice are the equivalents to Eli Manning at the running back position. The name calls for you to keep them in the lineup, wanting, hoping for them to return to relevance. But it just hasn’t happened yet. Jackson at least looked a little better on Sunday than he has throughout the season and this week he faces the Bills 23rd ranked run defense. They just haven’t allowed many touchdowns to RBs, in fact just four on the season. Keep your expectations low with Jackson, but as a flex option in larger leagues he might still be worthwhile. Jacquizz Rodgers, Jason Snelling and Antone Smith could also siphon carries away from Jackson, but it’s a slightly better than average matchup and Jackson seemed to have a little momentum going for him last week.

Chris Ogbonnaya, Cle vs. Jac
Ogbonnaya is another back to be cautiously optimistic with in deeper leagues. The best medicine here is to avoid all Browns running backs – period – but that might not be feasible in some leagues. More often than not, Ogbonnaya has been the most versatile and productive back on the Browns roster. Fozzy Whittaker and Willis McGahee remain in the mix and all three touch the ball enough to render any one of them nearly useless. The Jaguars haven’t stopped the run much all year ranking 29th in rushing yards allowed and 8th for most points allowed to RBs.

Donald Brown & Trent Richardson, Ind vs. Ten
At this point, the truth of the matter is that Richardson, not Brown, is becoming the bigger sleeper candidate in the Colts backfield. It’s a plus matchup, for sure, and one that Brown (not Richardson) took advanced off two weeks ago when he combined for 94 yards and two touchdowns on only 15 touches while Richardson slogged away for 53 yards on 13 touches. The Titans have allowed the fourth most points to RBs. Last week, Rashad Jennings continued to run hot with 122 total yards on 20 touches against them while Marcel Reece chipped in with 58 yards and a TD.

Wide Receivers

Jarrett Boykin & James Jones, GB at Det
Boykins has been a consistent WR2/WR3 type since replacing the injured Randall Cobb over a month ago, but Jones also missed a few games due to injury and he’s now back in the groove, although only as a WR4/flex type with less upside than with Aaron Rodgers under center. Matt Flynn will start for the Packers on Thanksgiving in Detroit, so there is less upside here than usual, but the Lions have been a fantasy friendly matchup allowing the second most points to WRs. Last week, those of you who took a shot on Tiquan Underwood struck gold as he broke off a 3-108-2 stat line. In their last four games, an opposing WR has caught two TDs against them, and in their last three, the same players topped 100 yards. Boykin and Jones both have WR2 upside this week.

Nate Burleson, Det vs. GB
Burleson has only played in four games this season thanks to a broken forearm, but he has caught 6 or 7 passes in every one and produced 10+ fantasy points in each of his last two. The Packers aren’t a great matchup, but they not a bad one either. With Burleson, it’s less about the matchup and more about teams focusing their efforts to contain Calvin Johnson and to a lesser extent Reggie Bush. Burleson is a rock solid possession-type receiver who makes for a great WR2/WR3 PPR option and a WR3/flex in non-PPR standard-sized leagues.

Harry Douglas, Atl at Buf
If you own Harry Douglas then you know the drill by now. He has effectively become Matt Ryan’s #1 target in the passing game with Roddy White playing through injuries and less than 100% all year, Tony Gonzalez playing out the final string of games in his Hall of Fame career with a toe injury and a largely ineffective running game. Douglas draws a matchup against a Bills defense allowing the third most points to opposing WRs. Douglas is a WR2 with upside in bigger leagues and a WR3/flex in smaller ones.

Brian Hartline, Mia at NYJ
If the Jets are without Antonio Cromartie (hip) this week, or even if he plays through his injury, Mike Wallace becomes more value with his ability to take the top off a defense, but it also makes Hartline a more viable fantasy starter – one with WR2 upside even. The Jets have allowed the seventh most points to WRs and they’ve given up long touchdown receptions in the last two games to Jacoby Jones and Marquise Goodwin, not to mention big pass plays or touchdowns to Robert Meachem, Marvin Jones and Emmanuel Sanders before that. For that matter, keep Rashard Matthews in mind as a “what the heck” flex option considering Ryan Tannehill’s tendency to target their inside/slot receiver whether it’s Matthews or it was Brandon Gibson before that.

Rod Streator, Oak at Dal
Denarius Moore (shoulder) is out once again this week leaving Streator and Andre Holmes as the Raiders’ starting wideouts. The Cowboys are a strong matchup allowing the 12th most points to opposing WRs. Even though Matt McGloin is starting, he has connected well with Streator for games of 6-84-1 and 5-93-0 the last two weeks. Holmes started last week but only produced 2-32-0. He’s someone to consider in deeper leagues as a WR5/WR6/flex option, while Streator looks like a strong WR3 with upside.

Michael Crabtree, SF vs. Stl
The 49ers activated Crabtree from the short-term injured reserve designation earlier this week and they expect him to play this week against the Rams. Crabtree will likely be on a snap count, so it’s a bit of a dicey option inserting him straight away into your lineup without having the benefit of seeing him play first. That said, the 49ers wouldn’t throw him out there if he were not healthy enough to go (well, maybe they would) and he has a matchup against a Rams defense that lost Cortland Finnegan for the season to injury. In four of their last five games, an opposing receiver produced 13 or more points against them. Anquan Boldin has resurfaced the last couple of weeks with strong games, so with Crabtree back, Vernon Davis roaming the middle and Mario Manningham also in the fold, Crabtree has more competition for targets, but he’s also just as likely as any of the 49ers’ other receivers to lead the team in targets, catches or even touchdowns.

Marvin Jones, Cin at SD
After a four-week breakout stretch in which Jones caught 19 passes for 316 yards and 6 TDs, he disappeared again over the last two games with box scores of 1-2-0 and 1-9-0 as Andy Dalton also went in the tank. Have no fear though; Dalton and the Bengals have a strong matchup against a Charger defense allowing the fourth most points to opposing receivers this week. Even Dwayne Bowe AND Donnie Avery caught touchdowns against them on Sunday. If you were looking for a good spot to roll the dice on Jones, this would be it.

Cordarrelle Patterson, Min vs. Chi
Patterson is finally getting more snaps, and over the last two games, he has seen 9 and 11 targets resulting in stat lines of 3-28-0 and 8-54-0. He is without question a unique talent when it comes to his size, speed and ability to take the ball and score from anywhere on the field. If Patterson continues to get a healthy number of targets it’s only a matter of time before he takes one to the house. We’ve already seen it from him as a kick returner and this week he might do the same thing against a broken down, beat up Bears defense.

Tavon Austin, Stl at SF
Austin is seeing an increase in snaps as well, although the Rams have been notorious throughout the year for using a heavy rotation amongst their receivers thereby making them all risky fantasy options. But Austin is starting to make big plays with more regularity and the team is finally getting more creative, adding wrinkles into the offense to utilize his speed to exploit defenses. The 49ers are generally not a good matchup for receivers, but if you’re looking for a home run option in the range of “what the heck” flex types, then Austin is as good as any out there.

Mike Brown / Ace Sanders, Jac at Cle
Mike Brown is expected to practice on Wednesday making him on target for a return to the field this week. With Joe Haden likely covering Cecil Shorts most of the time, Mike Brown or Ace Sanders figure to see more targets as a result. Brown was turning into a surprisingly productive player on the heels of Justin Blackmon’s suspension, but he then hurt his shoulder and Sanders joined the starting lineup and went on to have productive games of 8-61-0 and 4-61-0 in the last two weeks. Even if Brown plays, Sanders will slide inside to the slot where he could still hold some PPR value in deeper leagues with Brown rounding out as a potential WR5/flex option in deeper leagues.

Other deep league sleeper specials to consider in this final push for the playoffs include Justin Hunter (at Ind), Mohamed Sanu (at SD), Josh Morgan (vs NYG), Santonio Holmes (at Mia), Ted Ginn (vs. TB) and Dexter McCluster (vs. Den).

Tight Ends

For those of you in smaller leagues, Martellus Bennett (at Min) and Coby Fleener (vs. Ten) are two tight ends that need to be in your lineup this week. Bennett has been a constant threat in the red zone all year long and back in Week 2 he tallied 7-76-2 against the Vikings, who have allowed the fourth most points to opposing tight ends. Fleener racked up a career-best 8-107-0 against the Titans two weeks ago. With Reggie Wayne out for the season and teams rolling more coverage towards T.Y. Hilton, Fleener will continue to see plenty of quality targets against a Titan defense allowing the 13th most points.

Garrett Graham, Hou vs. NE
On a pretty consistent basis, the Patriots opponent’s tight end has caught 4 or 5 passes for around 40 to 60 yards against them. In their last two games, Greg Olsen (5-47-1) and Jacob Tamme (5-47-1) have both produced double-digit fantasy points. Graham’s value is about to diminish quickly with the return of Owen Daniels looming. Start him while you can, but remember to snag Daniels off waivers (or Dennis Pitta) in preparation for the playoffs.

Brent Celek & Zach Ertz, Phi vs. Ari
Teams continue to exploit an otherwise really good Cardinals defense with their tight ends on a week in and week out basis. Coby Fleener was the latest with 4 catches for 55 yards and a TD. The prior week the cellar dweller Jaguars, a team that hasn’t utilized their tight ends much, converted a fourth down with a 62-yard touchdown to Danny Noble, who roamed into the secondary unaccounted for in the Cardinals secondary. The Eagles have a pair of tight ends capable of making big plays. Both are averaging 13 yards per catch or more. No team has allowed more points to tight ends than the Cardinals have, so Ertz and Celek are both worth a shot as TE1s in deeper leagues or a proverbial “what the heck” flex in others.

John Carlson, Min vs. Chi
Continuing to fill in for the injured Kyle Rudolph, Carson has been a steady producer with low TE1 upside but solid TE2 production. Rudolph isn’t quite ready to return, so Carlson faces a broken down Bears defense that has taken a beating of late, allowing the ninth most points to tight ends. Last week, Jared Cook had a little breakout against them going for 4-80-1. Carson is averaging a little better than 6 targets per game with an impressive 76% catch rate and a TD in his last four games as the starter.

Other considerations for deeper leagues: Brandon Pettigrew (vs. GB) and Brandon Myers (at Was). Pettigrew reeled in 4-59-0 earlier in the year against the Packers while Tony Scheffler had 4-55-0 in the same game. The Packers have allowed the 11th most points to tight ends. Myers faces a Washington defense allowing the seventh most points.

Defense/Special Teams

Cleveland vs. Jacksonville
This could turn into an ugly game with the Browns front seven able to apply plenty of pressure on Chad Henne and also with the potential for bad weather playing an impact as well. The Jags have allowed the second most points to opposing defenses so there’s plenty of upside/potential if you roll with the Browns.

NY Jets vs. Miami
The Jets defensive front is ferocious but their secondary is weak and vulnerable. That makes them a boom or bust fantasy defense at home against the Dolphins offensive line that has been allowing sacks at an alarming rate. Tannehill made the Panthers pay last week, hitting Mike Wallace for a couple bombs and narrowly missing on a couple others. The same dynamic is in play this week only you can throw in some potentially bad weather to make things even more interesting.

Washington vs. NY Giants
The Giants are slowly improving, but Eli Manning is still not playing well (even if he has decreased the number of interceptions of late). The Giants opponents have scored defensive touchdowns in three of their last four games and four of their last six (six for the year). They’ve also committed at least one turnover in every game this year and have allowed 9 sacks in their last three games.

Buffalo vs. Atlanta
The Falcons offensive line is playing poorly, allowing 5 sacks last week and 10 in their last three games, and the Falcons have committed a turnover in eight straight games, losing fumbles in their last four while defenses have returned a fumble or INT for a touchdown two times in their last four. Atlanta has also scored 13 points or less in four of their last five games.

Miami at NY Jets
Geno Smith has been pretty awful lately and this week the Dolphins hope to capitalize on his awfulness. The Jets have allowed 4 or more sacks in five of their last eight games and have committed two or more turnovers in 8 of their 11 games. The Dolphins defense has plenty of upside this week with Cameron Wake coming off the edge and Geno Smith continuing to start despite all of the turnovers and sacks. Look for more carnage here.
 
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