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Week 15 Cliff Notes For Every Team

FootballGuysJeff Haseley of FootballGuys.com catches readers up with his week 15 cliff notes, examining hot topics for every NFL team.  

 

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Arizona

The Cardinals play at Tennessee this week. We know the Titans to be a strong pass defense, that allows few passing touchdowns. Prior to last week’s game at Denver, the Titans allowed eight passing touchdowns all year. After last week, that number is now 12, but Denver scores on everyone, so don’t take too much of that as performance let down of the Titans defense. I would be a little concerned with the outlook for Michael Floyd or Larry Fitzgerald. It’s not a good match up for them, based on Tennessee’s defensive history this season. Plus with this being a home game for the Titans, the secondary and defensive pass rush should have the advantage. On the other side of the ball, the Titans have allowed 16 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs, including two per game in six of the last eight games. This is good news for Rashard Mendenhall, but also Andre Ellington. Both Cardinals backs scored a touchdown last week. Not only is the Arizona running game hitting their stride, but the match up is a favorable one.

 

Atlanta

Is Atlanta making their move too little too late? We’ve seen teams play for pride, especially good teams that had a bad season. It may only take one more big loss to throw the towel in on the season, but I haven’t seen Atlanta do that yet. The Falcons had a nice fourth quarter comeback win against Buffalo only to lose a close game at Green Bay a week later. The bottom line is the Falcons still played with heart and nearly won. This week they will host Washington, who arguably are reeling more than the Falcons. Roddy White appears to be in much better health and it’s showing on the field. He has 18 catches for over 200 yards in the last two games. His needle is pointing up and Harry Douglas’ is pointing back down. In other words, the Falcons offense is realigned once again. There are still problems on the offensive line and the defense is nowhere near the same caliber that advanced to the NFC Championship Game last year. The match up against Washington is a good one for Steven Jackson, who also has come on strong lately. Not only is he a good fantasy start, but this week he could put up RB1 numbers.

 

Baltimore

The Ravens are still alive in the AFC playoff race thanks to a late-game performance against Minnesota last week. Baltimore outlasted an equally determined Vikings team that could catapult the Ravens into long winning streak. It was that type of confidence-boosting game that could pay dividends for the rest of the season. With a road game at Detroit this week, the Ravens will need to channel their inner confidence. The biggest news was the return of tight end Dennis Pitta (hip). Pitta tied teammate Marlon Brown for the most targets (11) last week. He also scored a touchdown in his season debut game. Pitta is a very good waiver wire claim (if he’s still available), however the Lions have allowed only one touchdown to tight ends this year. Detroit dominated Green Bay in their last home game, but they also have two home losses to CIN and TB this year. While this is not a great match up for Baltimore, there is some optimism, especially in the passing game. In both of Detroit’s home losses, the opposing quarterbacks have performed well. (Andy Dalton 372-3-0, Mike Glennon 247-2-0).

 

Buffalo

Trying to predict the expected performance for C.J. Spiller and/or Fred Jackson has been a difficult task this year. The Bills offense as a whole played poorly last week at Tampa Bay reaching just 184 yards passing with a high of 29 rushing yards to Manuel. This week, they will have to face the suddenly upstart Jaguars, winners of three straight and four of their last five. The problem with wanting to bench a highly talented player like Spiller is that he can score on any given play from anywhere on the field. That play could be from 15 yards out or 80 yards. The Jaguars have allowed 13 rushing plays of 20+ yards (only CHI and BUF have allowed more). Jacksonville has been fairly stingy against non-threatening rushing offenses, however against teams that run the ball well, they have been vulnerable. So which team is the Bills? Correctly guessing that answer is the answer to deciding if you should play Spiller or not. It also depends on who your alternative choices are. In my opinion, it’s a good bet that one of Spiller or Jackson will score a touchdown. In 8 of 13 games, a running back has scored a rushing touchdown against the Jaguars, including 5 of 6 at Jacksonville.

 

Carolina

Carolina returns home after a tough loss at New Orleans on Sunday Night Football. The Panthers will host the Jets, who are 1-5 on the road this year, with the one road win coming in a narrow victory at Atlanta. In those six road games, the Jets have allowed 15 touchdown passes, which is good news for Cam Newton and the Panthers receiving corps. The Jets have been vulnerable against the run in the last two games, but overall this season their run defense has been a strong point. The Panthers defense is a Top 3 defense/ST play this week. Geno Smith has thrown 20 interceptions this year, including at least one in all but two games. The Jets have also allowed 43 sacks (tied for 2nd worst in the league). Carolina has sacked the quarterback 41 times (4th most in the league). This match up heavily favors Carolina, especially at home.

 

Chicago

The Bears are trying to get on a roll in time to make a push for the NFC North division title that nobody seems to want to win. The lack of a division front-runner also means the Packers are still somehow in the race. This is becoming a three horse race between Chicago, Green Bay and Detroit that could come down to a photo finish in week 17 when Chicago hosts Green Bay. In the meantime, might we have the first true quarterback controversy this week?  Jay Cutler (ankle) is looking like he may be healthy and ready to start, however Josh McCown has been playing well with 8 touchdown passes in the last three games. I will say that those three opponents (STL, MIN, DAL) very soft opponents, especially on defense. By the way, anyone who plays Dallas (GB, WAS, PHI) has a very favorable match up going forward. The Bears have good match ups themselves in the last three games (@CLE, @PHI, GB). Cleveland has allowed 20 touchdown passes in the last 8 games. Whether it’s Josh McCown or Jay Cutler, the Bears should once again have a strong fantasy output. Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are all good starts.

 

Cincinnati

The Bengals travel to division rival Pittsburgh this week in what should be a decent match up for Andy Dalton and the Bengals passing game. Recently, the Steelers have been gashed by opposing wide receivers, namely Calvin Johnson, Josh Gordon, Torrey Smith and last week, Brian Hartline. Wide receivers have scored 8 touchdowns in the last six games against the Steelers, which is good news for A.J. Green. The duo of Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard has been effective for Cincinnati this year, but it’s been difficult to predict how well both will do week to week from a fantasy perspective. Green-Ellis has three double-digit non-PPR fantasy games this year, two of which came in the last two games. On the other side, Bernard has had six double-digit fantasy games, including last week vs. IND.

 

Cleveland

Josh Gordon is on an absolute tear this year, but especially over the last four games. If he’s on your fantasy team, there’s a good chance you’re still playing. If he’s not on your team, there’s a good chance you’re playing against him. This week the Browns host the Bears. It’s hard to determine how good of a match up this is for Gordon, simply because the Bears run defense has been so poor lately, that teams don’t bother to pass on them. Expect Cleveland to make every effort to get Gordon the ball. He leads the league in receiving yards and has 71 catches for 1,400 yards and 8 touchdowns, all despite not playing the first two games of the year. Also not to be forgotten or ignored is the Browns running game against the league’s worst run defense. Willis McGahee suffered a concussion last week and may not play vs. Chicago. If he can’t go, look for Chris Ogbannaya to get the nod and be a very sneaky fantasy RB start this week. Chicago has been a doormat for opposing running backs. It stands to reason that Ogbannaya could easily follow suit, if given the start.

 

Dallas

The Dallas defense remains a lost unit littered with injuries, which means opponents are gashing them every week. Only the Vikings (29) have allowed more touchdown passes than the Cowboys (26) this year. The Packers (and maybe Aaron Rodgers) come to town, which should be a very good match up for Green Bay. Dallas has played well at home this year, winning five of six, with the lone home loss coming in a narrow defeat against Denver 51-48. Who have they beaten at home though? Not exactly a murderers row of NYG, WAS, STL, MIN, OAK. Their defense is much worse and they’re staying on the field much longer than the offense, thus limiting offensive scoring opportunities. Drop the Cowboys down a notch in terms of fantasy value going forward. I have a strong feeling that their remaining games will have a similar result to what we saw in Chicago on Monday night.

 

Denver

The Broncos have an early Thursday game this week against San Diego. Don’t be surprised to see the Chargers play Denver well in this game, but ultimately, Peyton Manning and company should come through in the end, like typical fashion. Wes Welker (concussion) is most likely going to be inactive on a short week. This is the second concussion he’s had this year, so don’t expect him to suit up on Thursday. If Welker is out, look for Julius Thomas, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker to pick up the slack, but we could also see some increased targets to Andre Caldwell as well as Jacob Tamme. Tamme in particular saw an increase in snaps after Wes Welker left the game. Look for him to have an impact in some form, if Welker is indeed out. Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball continue to split reps, but both are good enough to warrant fantasy consideration, especially Moreno. His carry numbers have tailed off some recently, but he’s still getting plenty of looks as a receiving back. Both backs should be able to run on San Diego. In the previous meeting, Moreno had over 100 total yards with 8 receptions.

 

Detroit

The Lions were frost-bitten at Philadelphia last week in a game they needed to win to stay ahead of the growing pack in the NFC North. Moving on, this Monday night, the Lions return home to host another team looking to solidify a playoff spot, the Baltimore Ravens. The dome field advantage will definitely help Detroit and don’t be surprised to see Matthew Stafford have another high pass attempt game, even against Baltimore’s defense. Reggie Bush (calf) is listed as day-to-day, but many expect him to suit up on Monday night. Keep a close eye on his practice schedule throughout the week. If he can practice on Friday or Saturday, he should be able to play. Expect good fantasy numbers for the Lions in this game. That includes Stafford, Bush, Joique Bell and Calvin Johnson. By the way, the only other wide receiver to catch a pass in the snow last week, other than Calvin Johnson was Nate Burleson. Don’t ignore him, especially at home. He’s a sneaky play this week in my opinion.

 

Green Bay

This is potentially a very big fantasy producing game for the Packers this week at Dallas, especially if Aaron Rodgers (collarbone) is able to return. Dallas has been gashed by teams lately, not necessarily on the scoreboard, but through yardage. Eddie Lacy is must start if fully healthy. He twisted his ankle last week and played through it. He should be good to go for week 15, but don’t be surprised to see James Starks also get some reps. If Aaron Rodgers is back this week, plan on starting Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Jarrett Boykin. All three could be very productive against the Cowboys weak defense. If Rodgers is out, I still like the match up with Matt Flynn, but not near the level of where I would be with Rodgers.

 

Houston

The Texans have fired Head Coach Gary Kubiak and replaced him with defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. What will this mean in the last three games of the season? For one, Case Keenum was named the starter for the remainder of the year (@IND, DEN, @TEN). Since week 9, only Josh Gordon has more receiving yards (818) than Andre Johnson (693). Johnson’s 47 receptions is five more than anyone else in that span. No wide receiver has more than his five touchdown receptions since week 9. Houston has scored at least 20 points in five of the last six losses (all Keenum starts). This suggests the possibility that the team will still remain competitive, at least on offense. Ben Tate may have teased and burned you over the last few games, but this week’s match up at Indianapolis could yield fairly strong results. The Colts are averaging 140 yards rushing per game over the last six games, including 8 rushing touchdowns. The numbers suggest Ben Tate could have a big game, especially if he receives the bulk of the team’s carries. In the last six games, Tate has accounted for nearly 70% of the team’s carries.

 

Indianapolis

The Colts gave young wide receivers Da’Rick Rogers and LaVon Brazill some reps last week and both passed with flying colors with two touchdowns apiece. The Colts clinched the AFC South by virtue of a Tennessee loss at Denver. The playoff berth clinches a home playoff game and also makes the next three games virtually meaningless, except jockeying for the three or four seed. The good news is, we should see plenty of Rogers and Brazill in the next three games. The fantasy needle points a little higher to Rogers. It’s possible that he is worthy of a flex start, but the small sample size may be too much of a risk in the 2nd week of playoffs. Trent Richardson enjoyed a nice afternoon with 88 total yards plus five receptions. Maybe him coming clean on his inability to grasp the offense at first was exactly what he needed. He played like a huge weight was lifted off his chest. I would not be surprised to see him turn the corner in the tail end of the regular season and post season.

 

Jacksonville

The Jaguars have won three straight and four of their last five games. Maurice Jones-Drew (hamstring) is a game time decision this week. If he can’t go, look for Jordan Todman to get the start in what would be a fairly strong match up against Buffalo. In other words, if Jones-Drew is out and you started Todman this week, he would be a true VSP (very sneaky play). The Bills have allowed six rushing touchdowns to running backs in the last four games, including at least one per game. By the way, Ace Sanders (32) and Cecil Shorts (33) are neck and neck in targets in the last four games with Sanders leading in receptions (23) to Shorts (18). Shorts however has two touchdowns to Sanders zero. Both are optional starts this week, with a slight lean towards Shorts.

 

Kansas City

Jamaal Charles had his biggest game of the year last week against Washington. This week, he and the Chiefs will travel to Oakland. This sounds like a good match up on paper, however after further investigation, Oakland is pretty stingy at home against running backs. No running back at Oakland has rushed for more than 73 yards (Chris Johnson) and only two rushing touchdowns have been scored on the Raiders at home all year. In fact, no RB has had more than three rushing first downs at Oakland. 14.40 non-PPR Fantasy Points is the most any opposing RB has reached at Oakland this season.  RBs who finished with less than 14.40 FP at Oakland include LeSean McCoy (14.0), Chris Johnson (8.1), Alfred Morris (7.1), LeVeon Bell (10.9), Maurice Jones-Drew (2.8), Ryan Mathews (0.8) and Danny Woodhead (13.3). This is definitely not the best match up for Charles. That’s not to say he won’t produce, but if you believe in trends, it’s not in his favor.

 

Miami

The Dolphins host the Patriots this week in what is a must win for the Dolphins, if they are to keep pace with the AFC wild card picture. Lamar Miller (concussion) has not been cleared to play, which means Daniel Thomas would get the start in his place. By the way, Charles Clay has 24 catches in the last four games with three touchdowns. He has played his way into an every week start and he leads all Dolphins in non-PPR FP (not including Ryan Tannehill). Chew on this – New England has allowed four touchdowns to opposing tight ends in the last four games.

 

Minnesota

Adrian Peterson is unlikely to play in week 15, due to a mid-foot sprain he suffered last week. If he is held back, Toby Gerhart will get the start vs. Philadelphia. Gerhart has averaged roughly a fantasy point per carry (more if PPR) in the last four games. There is speculation that Peterson could be shut down this year just to be safe. If he is out this week or the last three games, Gerhart becomes a player of interest that you should consider starting. Cordarrelle Patterson has risen to the occasion lately with scores in three of the last five games. He also leads all Vikings in targets (31) and receptions (17) in the last four games. It’s difficult to recommend any Vikings receiver, but Patterson may be the exception. He is giving the Vikings a reason to be happy about the Percy Harvin trade. I would not be surprised to see the production improve over the next three games. He is someone to target in redraft leagues for next year, especially if Minnesota shores up the quarterback position.

 

New England

Arguably the biggest beneficiary of Rob Gronkowski’s loss (torn ACL) is Shane Vereen. Last week Vereen totaled 12 catches on 17 targets. He now has 55 targets in just five games this year. His 40 receptions is third on the team behind Julian Edelman (76) and Danny Amendola (41). In case you were wondering, Gronkowski was injured catching his 39th pass. Only Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte have more PPR fantasy points at RB than Vereen since week 11. Along with Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, Vereen and Danny Amendola may wind up being the only Patriots worth starting for the rest of the year. Vereen is a must start, regardless of scoring format.

 

New Orleans

After being humiliated at Seattle, the Saints righted the ship taking their frustrations out on Carolina. The home prime time game in the dome definitely helped matters. Drew Brees and the Saints play at STL this week. The Rams pass rush, especially at home can be a lot to handle. The Saints have lost three of their last four road games with the only win coming at Atlanta in a close 17-13 battle. Don’t automatically assume this will be an easy win. Marques Colston had his best game of the season last week. It’s doubtful that we will see a similar performance this week. Figure about 25 completions from Brees to a combination of Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles.

 

NY Giants

The Giants host the Seahawks this week. This is road game for Seattle, but this is not a good match up for Eli Manning and the Giants. Seattle has allowed only two rushing touchdowns on the road this year, but they have allowed three 100+ yard efforts to Zac Stacy, Frank Gore and Arian Foster. I can see the Giants making an effort to run the ball on Seattle, who will be without linebacker K.J. Wright (foot). Andre Brown and Peyton Hillis could put together a tag team with Brown getting the majority of the carries. Victor Cruz has fallen off the elite WR status this year, but he could see a fair share of targets this week. I don’t like the match up, but the possibility of a busy day for Cruz is very real.

 

NY Jets

The Jets have a 1-5 record on the road this year with 5 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. The team has just two rushing touchdowns in their six road games. With this game being at Carolina, there is not much fantasy value to be had on the Jets this week. Chris Ivory may be the only fantasy player I would consider and that’s only if the Jets can keep the game within reach. Look elsewhere for fantasy points this week.

 

Oakland

The Raiders have four wins this year, two of which came at home (SD, PIT). Matt McGloin is scheduled to start the three remaining games and Rashad Jennings (concussion) is looking like he will return this week. Jennings’ return means less touches for Marcel Reece and Darren McFadden (ankle) if he’s able to play. Is there another player in the league that is misused more than Marcel Reece? When he gets an opportunity for increased touches, he performs well. Why Oakland doesn’t utilize his strengths more boggles my mind. Andre Holmes has 10 catches on 18 targets in the last two games. He and Rod Streater should continue to be focal points in the offense in the last three games. My guess is that Holmes will see more targets as they look to evaluate him for 2014 and beyond. Fantasy value is up for Rashad Jennings and down for Marcel Reece, provided Jennings receives a full bill of health heading into week 15.

 

Philadelphia

The snow did not help many Eagles last week, with the exception of LeSean McCoy who ran wild against Detroit, especially in the second half. This week Philadelphia will travel to Minnesota and face the Adrian Peterson-less Vikings. At least that’s the early understanding. The Vikings have struggled against the run at times this year both at home and on the road. LeSean McCoy has a good match up that could yield 25-30 touches and another 100+ yard effort. DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper figure to account for a good portion of Nick Foles passing yards. Jackson is an excellent start with Cooper being a tad more risky, seeing as how he has not exceeded more than three receptions in either of the last four games.

 

Pittsburgh

Antonio Brown is second in the league with 90 receptions this year and is ranked third in PPR leagues behind Calvin Johnson and Josh Gordon. Brown has produced on a consistent basis never dropping below five catches in a game this year. Cincinnati has allowed only five touchdowns to wide receivers on the road this year in seven games, so it’s not the best match up for Brown. LeVeon Bell has 18 receptions in the last four games and has not dipped below 80 total yards in each of those games. Emmanuel Sanders has played well lately with a touchdown reception in each of the last three games. He has a total of 16 receptions in that span.

 

San Diego

Ryan Mathews has come on strong lately, taking away some of the thunder that Danny Woodhead managed to accrue in the first half of the season. In the last four games, both Mathews and Woodhead have identical 12 receptions on 14 targets. Woodhead has scored twice in the four game span, however Mathews has two 100+ rushing games. This week the Chargers will play at Denver on Thursday night in what should be a game that features a lot of pass attempts by Philip Rivers. Interestingly enough, only one RB has caught more than 4 passes at Denver this year. That is not the best news if you own Danny Woodhead. Also worth noting, only three WRs have caught more than six passes at Denver. Regardless, Keenan Allen is an excellent start this week. He injured his shoulder last week, but he has been practicing this week and is scheduled to start on Thursday night.

 

Seattle

The Seahawks will play at NYG this week in what could be the first of two games they’ll play at MetLife Stadium this year. The second of course, being the big game on Feb 2nd. In seven road games, Russell Wilson has finished in the Top 10 for the week three times. He has thrown at least two touchdown passes in four of the seven road games. Don’t expect Seattle receivers to have a big game this week. It’s possible that no player in particular has more than four catches and that includes Percy Harvin, who may be able to play this week. Even if Harvin plays, Seattle is not projected to be a pass-happy team this week. Marshawn Lynch on the other hand should be a big contributor. He has at least 90 yards rushing in four road games this year. Interestingly enough, 8 of his 12 touchdowns have come at home, in just six games.

 

San Francisco

The 49ers play at Tampa Bay this week in what figures to be a good passing match up, but not great. The 49ers strength is their run offense, however the Buccaneers main strength on defense is against the run. Tampa has allowed just two rushing touchdowns at home and only one RB has carried more than 12 times in a game in the seven home games. That is not super news for Frank Gore. On the other side, the Buccaneers pass defense has been consistently bad. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdown passes in 8 of the last 9 games. Colin Kaepernick should be able to find Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis fairly easily this week. All three receivers are legit starts and even Kaepernick jumps into the equation as a startable quarterback.

 

St. Louis

The Rams will host the Saints this week. Expect to see plenty of touches from Zac Stacy and pencil him in for RB1 numbers. Trying to stop the run played a big role in two of the Saints three losses (all on the road) this year. Kellen Clemens is not one who can win a game with his arm, however a ground and pound running game and strong pass rush is the recipe for success against the Saints, especially on the road. The Rams have both of those elements. Tavon Austin (ankle) will try to give it a go this week. I wouldn’t recommend starting him, but he could be healthy enough to make some plays on special teams or perhaps break a long gain on a designed play to get him in space. The big play is Zac Stacy. If you have him, start him.

 

Tampa Bay

The Bucs host the 49ers this week. This is not a great match up for Mike Glennon and company. San Francisco has not allowed a 100-yard receiver on the road this year, which is doesn’t bode well for Vincent Jackson. I expect Bobby Rainey to see a good number of carries, especially in the first half of the game when the score is relatively tight. If he’s going to have a respectable fantasy day he’ll have to get into the end zone in the first half of the game. It’s possible that Vincent Jackson could get close to 100 yards, especially if there’s garbage time to be had at the end of the game.

 

Tennessee

Delanie Walker (concussion) is expected to play this week, which should open things up for the passing game against the Cardinals. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 41 pass attempts per game against Arizona in the last six games. It has been documented that Arizona has been awful against opposing tight ends this year. In fact, 14 touchdown passes have gone to tight ends against Arizona. In Walker’s last home game, he had 10-91-1. He and Kendall Wright were targeted early and often, which could be the case this week. Chris Johnson should see upwards of 25 touches in this game and is worthy of a RB2 start this week, despite Arizona’s strong run defense. On the road, I’m not as convinced they’ll be that strong. Plus Arizona has been known to allow RBs to be active as receivers out of the backfield. I like Chris Johnson this week and believe the Titans will be primed to upset the Cardinals.

 

Washington

There is talk about Robert Griffin being benched for Kirk Cousins at some point this season. It could very well occur this week at Atlanta. Washington has lost five straight games and Atlanta is starting to show signs of life. The only fantasy threats for Washington this week are Alfred Morris and Pierre Garcon. Atlanta has allowed three rushing touchdowns in the last two games, which is reason for optimism for Alfred Morris. The Falcons run defense has been poor this season and Morris should be able to take advantage. Pierre Garcon is third in the league in receptions with 89. In the last four games, he by far leads the team in targets (45) and receptions (28). Nobody else is close. The next closest is Santana Moss with 18 targets and 9 receptions. Start Garcon and hope the quarterback situation will work itself out. Garcon should still be targeted whether it’s Griffin under center or Kirk Cousins.

 

 

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