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Colts at Patriots (-7): Against the Spread Picks

Jan 9, 2014
Tom Brady

Brady has his eyes firmly set on a (potential) 3rd straight AFC title game appearance.

 

The night cap (8:15pm EST) on Saturday features a showdown between two of the NFL’s premier QBs: Tom Brady & Andrew Luck. The Colts roll into Foxborough fresh off of a historic 28-point second half comeback vs. the Chiefs. Their reward is a postseason date with the Patriots for the 4th time in the past 11 years.

 

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While the Pats enter the game as heavy favorites (-7), the Colts may be comforted by the fact that New England has lost a home playoff game in 3 of the past 4 seasons. It may seem unlikely that the Colts will add to this tally but, as the picks below indicate, plenty of experts like Indy to at least keep the game within a touchdown.

 

IND
Indianapolis Colts (+7)
NE
New England Patriots (-7)
Pick %
66% 34%
“The Colts getting 7 on this one makes it an easy decision. I think it’s going to be a close one, and I think Indianapolis can pull out a win in Foxborough against a New England team that has defied logic for most of the season. The Patriots have been middle of the road in all defensive categories in 2013, and they’ve had an offense that has still managed to find ways to win despite injury and adversity. Brady/Belichick black magic has somehow carried them along this far. That voodoo can only go so far, and I think the Colts can win this one spread or no. ”
Kelly Smelser Punch Drunk WonderlandKelly Smelser's most confident pick for this week
“Even though New England hasn’t lost all year at home, they’ve won by less than 7 points in half of those games. That’s all the Colts need to do to cover the spread, and the way Andrew Luck started shredding the Chiefs defense makes me wonder how the Patriots are going to stop him. ”
Michael Sherman Fantasy Team Advice
“With so many missing pieces, I don’t trust the New England defense enough to take them against Andrew Luck and the Colts. Straight-up, I’m taking the Patriots to win, but not by more than a touchdown.”
Greg Smith The Fake Football
“The Pats may be tight end-less but they won five of their last six games to seal a playoff bye, defeating the Ravens and the Broncos in the process. Tom Brady has outdueled Peyton Manning and Drew Brees this season and should have no problem besting Andrew Luck in the playoffs. With that said, the Pats have played almost nothing but close games all season and I don’t think they can cover a 7-point spread.”
Igor Derysh XN Sports
“Among the three biggest favorites this week, I like New England to cover the most (and they are favored less than Denver and Seattle). But I’m going ugly with the dog here yet again.”
Dalton Del Don Yahoo! Sports
“Depending on how quickly the Colts decide to give up on the running game, this contest could either be an entertaining back-and-forth shootout or another game in which Andrew Luck has to overcome another 20-point first-half deficit. A seven-point spread is a large one for a Patriots’ team that is 3-4 over its last seven playoff games and doesn’t have much left from a personnel standpoint on defense.”
Doug Orth FFToday
“The Colts got down last week, but found a way to win against Kansas City. New England should win, but not in a blowout fashion. Andrew Luck will keep this game competitive throughout and cover. ”
Jeff Boggis Fantasy Sports Empires
“As squirrelly as the Colts have been this year, they’ve generally risen to the challenge against good teams. This number shows incredible respect for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but I can’t lay this many points with a New England squad that’s lost so much manpower to injury.”
Pat Fitzmaurice The Football Girl
“After seeing the Colts battle back from a huge deficit.. The line makes it seem as if they can’t do it again. I consider this easy money as the game should be settled with a field goal being the deciding factor. ”
Terrance Bridgett FantasyTrade411Terrance Bridgett's most confident pick for this week
“Like the SEA/NO game, I think the home team wins, but I will take the points with Indianapolis. I’m going to avoid the cheesy joke here, and say that Indianapolis’ “good fortune” will run out this weekend but it will be close.”
Jeff Brubach The Fake Football
“Again TD in the playoffs…New England isn’t the offensive powerhouse they once were. With Temps in the 50’s the “DOME” team should be ok.”
Ken Zalis Fans Fantasy FootballKen Zalis's most confident pick for this week
“I expect New England to take a run-heavy approach on offense, which should keep this game close.”
Ryan Rufe RotoBaller
“This will not be a blowout on either side of the bowl so long as Andrew Luck and Tom Brady are leading the way for their respective teams. Indianapolis is thin at WR right now, but utilizing Donald Brown out of the back field will keep New England on their toes. Look for a game that could see many turnovers as we may see multiple lead changes. ”
Keet Bailey Breaking Football
“The Patriots only played 4 games against playoff teams in 2013. They lost 2 (both on the road) and they won 2 (both at home, and both by 3 points). Colts went 4-2 against playoff teams; including 2-2 on the road. & points seems a bit high when you crunch the numbers. ”
Site Projections Fantasy Football Starters

“The theme of this week is underdogs. Dogs are 25-15 ATS in the Divisional Round over the last ten years, and dogs of seven or more are 13-7 over that span. A lot of that discrepancy comes down to bye teams getting way too much respect from the betting public, and this is a great example.

Sure New England has Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and an offense which has been unstoppable the second half of the season, but they have the second worst defense of the eight teams left in the playoffs and have, Ravens’ game aside, struggled to blow teams out this season.

I expect any game with Andrew Luck to at least be close, and it would not surprise me at all if Indianapolis actually won in New England this weekend.”
Raymond Summerlin Pro Football AddictsRaymond Summerlin's most confident pick for this week

“The Colts worry me with their inconsistent play this season, but they have shown that they can beat anyone with wins over SEA, SF and DEN during the regular season. Even if they don’t win, I expect them to keep this game closer than the spread.”
Kevin Hanson EDSFootball
“Andrew Luck and the comeback squad have an amazing chance to continue in the play-offs. If Luck can keep his team composed then expect a solid outing from the Colts. ”
James Hatfield Hatty Waiver Wire Guru
“Again, New England wins but I can’t see Luck and company not keeping it closer than a touchdown. Looking for a big day from Vereen to lead the charge.”
Sky Sperling Razzball
“The Colts have the type of offense that can keep up with the Patriots, who will be without Brandon Spikes who was third on the team in tackles and was their best defender against the run. So, if Indianapolis can score 45 points on the Chiefs, then I anticipate that they can at least keep this game close. ”
Michael Pichan RotoInfo
“New England has the experience on its side, but after losing big name after big name to injury throughout the season, it’s hard to take them to blow out another team in the playoffs. The line would have to get down to -4 before I’d start backing NE.”
R.J. White Fantasy Football Cafe
“Seven of the Patriots’ 12 wins were by one score or fewer. This team played in closed games all season long and has battled through a myriad of injuries. Meanwhile, Andrew Luck is coming off a 443-yard, four-touchdown performance against a very good Kansas City Chiefs defense. The Pats may not lose this one at home, but it’s going to be close and the Colts will cover.”
Rich Arleo Bruno BoysRich Arleo's most confident pick for this week
“I’ll take the seven points. There were a few lean weeks this year for the Pats and they are undeniably different without Gronkowski.”
Dave McKay The Fantasy Sports BrainDave McKay's most confident pick for this week
“Just too many points. Even if Gronk were playing this would be too many. ”
Steve Wyremski Dynasty League Football
“This is the toughest game to predict, as either team is capable of playing mediocre or outstanding football. ”
Staff Rankings Draft Calc
“Any team that storms back from a 38-10 hole and wins can’t be ruled out of any game, in my opinion. That being said, the Patriots are the better team and this game isn’t in Indy. I can’t see Tom Brady bowing out early.”
Kevin Roberts Breaking FootballKevin Roberts's most confident pick for this week
“Andrew Luck has been too inconsistent this season, and Tom Brady will be hungry to get another playoff victory under his belt”
KJ Fantasy Team Advice
“Indianapolis just isn’t that good. They were 21st in Football Outsiders’ DVOA during the regular season, and they’re currently 14th in the Massey-Peabody power rankings which project point differential against an average team. They’re easily below any of the remaining playoff teams in those two metrics. I think the Colts borrowed time runs out and in ugly fashion this week.”
Brett Talley The Fantasy Fix
“Pats will take care of business at home against a flawed Colts team that fell behind by 4 TDs to a KC team that was missing most of its best players.”
Kevin Kumpf RazzballKevin Kumpf's most confident pick for this week
“Patriots. Playoffs. Foxboro.”
Wayne Bretsky BretskyBall
“Tom Brady has a career playoff record of 17-6. Eleven of those wins have occurred at home. I just can’t envision the Colts’ defense making enough plays and stops to keep the Patriots from winning by more than a touchdown and XP.”
Zach Greubel Gridiron Experts
“The Colts are facing a different animal this week in an experienced Patriots team on the road. Cornerback Aqib Talib will take T.Y. Hilton out of the game forcing Andrew Luck to lean on his other receiving options which are not very reliable. Look for the Pats to pound the ball on the ground with LaGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley setting up some nice play action passes for Tom Brady.”
Walton Spurlin FantasySharks
“Andrew Luck was incredible last week especially in the second half. But I don’t think the Colts running game is good enough to really take advantage of the biggest weakness in the Patriots defense.”
Nate Hodges Pro Football Focus
“I’ll take Belichick with the extra week for $200, thanks. If the Pats take away T.Y. Hilton – which they’ll try to do – where do the Colts go? To a two-TD defeat, probably. However, if I was ranking my picks for the weekend, I’d be the least confident in this one.”
John Halpin Fox Sports
“Indy’s comeback last week – while impressive – was aided significantly by injuries suffered by KC during the course of the game. This week, against a Patriots team getting healthy after the bye (and on the road) there will be no such Luck. The last time they played in New England Luck and Indy lost by 25 points. Let’s not ignore the fact that Alex Smith and the Chiefs threw for four scores and 378 yards against this secondary.”
Jon Collins Fantasy Sports LRJon Collins's most confident pick for this week
“The Colts’ incredible comeback versus the Chiefs has earned them a date with New England on the road. I don’t think New England has any trouble covering the spread in this one. Belichick isn’t going to be dumb enough to let TY Hilton walk the Colts up and down the field like he did versus the Chiefs, and after that, what do that Colts have to offer? Not to mention their defense is very average. Expect Tom Brady and company to roll.”
Staff Rankings 2MugsFF2MugsFF's most confident pick for this week
“I don’t know how the Pats have won as many games as they have with all the key players they lost. Tom Brady has been here all too many times to let the Colts stop him. At home, the Pats should win by at least 10. ”
Mike Tagliere Tags Fantasy Football
“Love the line of -7. New England at home, in the cold, I’ll light a fire and snuggle up to Tom Brady!”
Paul Greco FantasyPros911Paul Greco's most confident pick for this week
“The Patriots have a new commitment to running the ball, as they averaged 129 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. The Colts have struggled to defend the run this year, as they give up 125 yards per game, and opposing rushers 4.5 yards per carry. Also, the Patriots will have the ability to take away T Y Hilton with Aqib Talib, and they will be disciplined into not letting Andrew Luck leave the pocket.”
Dan Yanotchko EDSFootballDan Yanotchko's most confident pick for this week
“Patriots QB Tom Brady is 6-1 in Divisional Round Games where he has had a bye in the Wild Card Round. Four of those six victories were by double digits with the two close victories coming back in the 2001 and 2003 seasons. I like how Colts QB Andrew Luck has been able to rally the Colts, but this is not the team to fall behind early in the game. I like the Patriots not only to win, but cover the spread. ”
Derek Lofland Fantasy Football ManiaxDerek Lofland 's most confident pick for this week
“Indianapolis allowed nearly half-a-hundred points to a Kansas City team without Jamaal Charles for 98% of the game. That point total wasn’t even aided by a non-offensive touchdown of any kind. The Indianapolis secondary is full of players who were cut elsewhere and/or are hurting right now. New England will complete finish what Seattle started in what may end up being called “Blowout Saturday.””
Ryan Hester footballandbracketsRyan Hester's most confident pick for this week
“In 4 of their 5 losses in 2013, the Colts lost by double digits. When they lose, they lose big. And I expect them to lose this week even though the Patriots haven’t been world beaters this year only winning 5 games by more than 7 points. . ”
Russ Bliss Fantasy Football Starters
Against the Spread, Featured