By now you probably know that we’re fans of Consensus advice. It’s the backbone of FantasyPros and we’ve seen in the past how effective the Expert Consensus has proven to be.
With that said, anyone that gambles on sports (legally, of course) knows that you sometimes have to go against the grain to win. Those of you who started Larry Donnell or Eli Manning on Thursday night are proudly aware of this fact.
That’s why, for this week’s article, we used our Dissenting Opinions Tool (compares any 2 experts’ rankings) to spot the players the most accurate experts like better than our ECR. Simply put, these are guys the top experts have ranked ahead of the Expert Consensus. If you have any of the 12 players discussed here, you may want to take a look before you finalize your lineup decisions.
Consensus: QB #9
Expert’s Rank: QB #2
Accuracy: #8 (out of 128)
“I love Kaepernick this week as he will likely be involved in a shootout versus the Eagles. The thing that has boosted Kaepernick’s value is the fact that he’s 100% healthy which means he is running the ball a lot more (9 carries a game through 3 weeks). He should be in line for a ton of fantasy points this week.”
– Sean Koerner (Bloomberg Sports)
Consensus: RB #27
Expert’s Rank: RB #19
Accuracy: #2 (out of 128)
“I get it. The Lions defense is looking great so far in 2014. If you’re Rex Ryan, are you going to let Chris Johnson dance around the LOS or give it to the back with the 6th most yards after contact in the NFL? Ivory’s touches should increase this week & the Jets are now starting to throw him the ball (4 receptions a week ago). Ivory is also the goal line back so I think you have a recipe for more volume this week. Don’t forget that the Lions are now without star LB Stephen Tulloch for the rest of the year.”
– Tom Poisal (Top Tier Football)
Khiry Robinson (NO at DAL)Consensus Rank: RB #15
Expert’s Rank: RB #12
Accuracy: #1 (out of 128)
“Taking over for an injured Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson led the New Orleans backfield with 18 carries last week, while Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet combined for 10. Robinson will also handle goal-line duties and I expect him to find the end zone at least once against a Dallas front seven likely missing defensive tackles Terrell McClain and Henry Melton. Remember that the Saints rushed for 242 yards in a 49-17 victory over the Cowboys last season.”
Matt Asiata (MIN vs. ATL)Consensus Rank: RB #18
Expert’s Rank: RB #12
Accuracy: #10 (out of 128)
“Matt Asiata is the lunch pail option this week. His value is more predicated on his opportunity versus his ability to be the feature back. He has a chance at 20 combined touches against Atlanta’s poor run defense (third most fantasy points allowed to RBs) and should be on the field at least 70 percent of the time. The most intriguing part of his game will be his involvement in the passing game. With Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, Asiata will be the check down option on most plays. In Asiata’s last two games, he’s been targeted a whopping 40% of the time he runs a route. That offers him a floor of at least six targets this week. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him with over 100 total yards and a touchdown.”
– Bryan Fontaine (Pro Football Focus)
Markus Wheaton (PIT vs. TB)Consensus Rank: WR #32
Expert’s Rank: WR #24
Accuracy: #9 (out of 128)
“The Bucs are the worst team in the NFL at guarding the WR position this season, allowing an average of 30.7 fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. Wheaton is expected to line up with Tampa Bay CB, Jonathan Banks, whose season could be characterized as an under-performance to say the least. Wheaton offers high upside in this favorable matchup against a defense who allowed 56 Points to Atlanta in Week 3.”
– Tozzi Brothers (Legion Report)
Steve Smith (BAL vs. CAR)Consensus Rank: WR #22
Expert’s Rank: WR #13
Accuracy: #6 (out of 128)
“I’d have a very tough time benching Steve Smith this week given the way he has played — #11 WR through three weeks — and the importance of this matchup with the Panthers in Smith’s universe. I have no data to back this up, but players that face their old teams tend to produce at a higher level. Smith has had September 28th circled on his calendar since he signed with the Ravens back in March, and I have no doubt that he’ll make sure that he’s a big part of the Ravens’ game plan on Sunday. Throw in a season-ending injury to Dennis Pitta, and there should be plenty of passes heading Smitty’s way. The Panthers could sell out to stop him, resulting in a quiet day, but something tells me Smith won’t go quietly.”
– John Paulsen (4for4)
Kendall Wright (TEN at IND)Consensus Rank: WR #30
Expert’s Rank: WR #14
Accuracy: #2 (out of 128)
“At this time, it’s unclear as to whether Jake Locker will make the start but even if Charlie Whitehurst (“Clipboard Jesus”) gets the nod, he’ll probably check it down a ton. The Titans have attempted to get Wright the ball in various ways but it needs to increase. Last week’s 10 targets are encouraging in addition to facing a team giving up the 4th most passing yards in the NFL (Colts). Don’t forget the potential for garbage points in a blowout.”
– Tom Poisal (Top Tier Football)
Allen Robinson (JAC at SD)Consensus Rank: WR #42
Expert’s Rank: WR #23
Accuracy: #2 (out of 128)
“Blake Bortles gets his first career start in San Diego this week so that means everyone’s stock is up in Jacksonville. I loved Robinson coming out of Penn State and he’s already given folks tons to talk about after last week’s 7/79/0 line on 10 targets. With Bortles, Robinson caught 6 passes for 73 yards so there could be a connection already between the 2 rookies. San Diego’s defense is allowing a QB rating of 101.1 to opposing QBs so there should be passing opportunities. As always with all Jags, the opportunity for garbage points is huge.”
– Tom Poisal (Top Tier Football)
“Trusting Jaguars offensive skill positions players can be a dicey proposition. This week the Jags turn to 2014 first round pick Blake Bortles to lead the team. Fellow rookie Allen Robinson had 10 targets going 7 for 79 yards in a losing affair last week versus the Colts. His role has increased exponentially the last two weeks and with Marqise Lee again highly questionable to play, the work he has gotten all week with Bortles in practice may be the difference come Sunday. This week could very well be his coming out party.”
– Terrance Bridgett (ProjectRoto)
Consensus Rank: WR #38
Expert’s Rank: WR #23
Accuracy: #8 (out of 128)
“Smith is due for a big week. The snaps and targets have been there but it hasn’t translated into a lot of fantasy points so far. I see him getting a huge boost with Dennis Pitta out. A perfect example would be last year in Pitta’s absence when he averaged 4.5 rec, 79 yds, 0.33 TD in weeks 1-13 and then only 2.75 rec, 44 yds, 0.0 TDs during weeks 14-17 (after Pitta returned).”
– Sean Koerner (Bloomberg Sports)
Consensus Rank: WR #25
Expert’s Rank: WR #16
Accuracy: #11 (out of 128)
“Hopkins is the most dynamic player in this offense – not Andre Johnson, not Arian Foster. He’s capable of running everything in the route tree, and his hand-eye coordination is just obscene (witness his circus catch from Week 3, which unfortunately was called back by penalty). Year 3 used to be the trendy time for wideout breakouts, but that’s shifted to Year 2 now. You want as many Hopkins shares as you can get this season.”
– Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports)
Owen Daniels (BAL vs. CAR)Consensus Rank: TE #15
Expert’s Rank: TE #10
Accuracy: #3 (out of 128)
“When the Baltimore Ravens signed Gary Kubiak to be their Offensive Coordinator this past off-season, there was no doubt their offense would feature a heavy usage of the tight end position. With Dennis Pitta receiving 22 targets (in just 2.5 games) and Owen Daniels getting another 11 (along with catching two TDs) through the first three games, the prophecy was obviously legit. However, in that third game, Dennis Pitta went down with another season-ending hip injury, leaving 31-year-old Owen Daniels to reap the unfortunate benefits. This week the Ravens take on the Carolina Panthers, and despite the Panthers rare collapse against the run last Sunday night against the Steelers, I can’t see the Ravens running game doing much against a normally tough rush D. Because of this, Flacco will need to toss the ball around a bunch to bring home a win and whenever that happens, you know the tight end will be involved. Since Daniels won’t have to compete with Pitta for targets, it wouldn’t shock me to see him end up with double-digit targets and anywhere from 6-8 catches. He may be old and on his last legs, but it’s still early in the season, so his legs are fresh enough to have himself a sneaky-spicy game.”
– Dawgmatica (Pyromaniac)
Heath Miller (PIT vs. TB)Consensus Rank: TE #14
Expert’s Rank: TE #10
Accuracy: #3 (out of 128)
“I believe this is the week Heath Miller gives us the TE1 value he flashed in the third preseason game when he caught five passes for 53 yards and a touchdown. Why? Well, Ben Roethlisberger made Miller a bigger part of the offense that week, and I expected that to continue into the season. It’s been a slow start, but Miller does have at least four targets and three receptions in each game. Plus, the Bucs pass defense is one of the worst, giving Miller the fifth-best matchup this week according to my data rankings at RotoExperts.com.”
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Thanks to this week’s Featured Experts for sharing their opinions with us. To get more advice from the experts, please visit their sites and follow them on Twitter.
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Best of luck this weekend!
