2014’s Most Accurate Fantasy Football Experts

Dec 23, 2014

The fantasy season is in the books and there’s only 1 question left to answer: Which expert gave the most accurate advice?

We’ve been monitoring the experts’ predictions all season long. We’ve seen the good (early recommendations for Odell Beckham Jr. & Le’Veon Bell), the bad (hype for Montee Ball) and the ugly (the words “Cordarrelle Patterson” and “WR1” in the same sentence).

Through it all, we evaluated over 5 million predictions from 125 experts. The 10 pundits below conquered the gauntlet to hand out the best fantasy advice (view full standings here).

Overall Accuracy Standings

Top 10 Experts – Overall Leaderboard*
 Rank  Expert  PAY™
 1.  John Paulsen – 4for4.com  60.7%
 2.  Sean Koerner – STATS  60.6%
 3.  Justin Boone – The Score  60.3%
 4.  Jake Ciely – RotoExperts  59.5%
 5.  Sablich Brothers – The New York Times  59.4%
 6.  Patrick Thorman – Pro Football Focus  59.4%
 7.  Jeff Ratcliffe – Pro Football Focus  59.0%
 8.  Matthew Hill – Fantasy Team Advice  58.9%
 9.  Patrick Daugherty – Rotoworld  58.9%
 10.  Ken Zalis – Pressbox  58.8%

*See how all 125 experts ranked for the season | View Accuracy Methodology

Notes:

  • accuracy-winners-list

    Paulsen becomes the first 2-time winner of the in-season accuracy competition.

    If you’ve been following along throughout the season, it should come as no surprise to see John Paulsen (4for4) take home the crown as 2014’s Most Accurate Expert. Paulsen has now competed in 5 in-season accuracy competitions and earned the following placements: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 16th. Yup, it’s a solid little resume. This year’s first place finish makes Paulsen the only expert to win our in-season competition more than once. And, perhaps most impressively, it also gives him the #1 accuracy rating in all multi-year views over the last 5 seasons. In other words, whether you look back at the last 2, 3, 4, or 5 years, the end result is the same: John Paulsen is the most accurate fantasy football expert.

  • We mention this every year and it bears repeating. This is our 6th season tracking weekly accuracy and the evidence is mounting that it takes more than luck to provide quality fantasy advice. Consider the following:
    • 5 experts from last year’s top 10 cracked the top 10 again in 2014. The number was 4 the year before that…and 4 the year prior. Clearly, experts are finding repeat success.
    • Justin Boone (The Score) has entered the competition for 3 seasons and each time he has finished inside the top 11 (#11, #8 and #3 this past season).
    • The Sablich Brothers (The New York Times) finished in the 96th percentile (a fancy term for 5th place) and, amazingly, it ties for the “lowest” ranking they’ve achieved in their 4 seasons in the competition: #3, #3, #5, #5. That’s a good model of consistency right there. Jake Ciely (RotoExperts) is another expert who doesn’t know what life is like outside of the top 5. He’s cracked the upper end of the leaderboard in each of his two seasons (2014 & 2013) in the contest.
    • Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus) just pulled off the three-peat as the most accurate IDP expert in 2014, 2013 and 2012. This is also the 4th year in a row that a Pro Football Focus analyst has taken home the IDP title. PFF pumps out a good amount of quality IDP content on a weekly basis so it’s fitting that the top IDP honor goes to a site that caters to this growing (and often overlooked) segment of fantasy owners.
  • In case you missed it, we’ve also been running a season-long competition (hosted by DraftKings) to locate the most accurate daily fantasy expert. Over 70 experts have competed by submitting optimal lineups (within a salary cap) each week. Currently, David Kitchen (Fantasy Insiders) is leading the competition. If it holds up, this would mark the 2nd year in a row that someone from Fantasy Insiders finished in 1st place (no pressure, David). Daily fantasy games are still in full swing so be sure to give David a follow on Twitter (@Socrdave) if you have any daily lineup questions throughout the rest of the season.

Top Experts by Position

We also want to briefly highlight 2014’s top rated experts by position. Kudos to the following pundits for nailing down the best accuracy scores:

Highest Rated Experts by Position
 Position  Expert   PAY™
 QB  Sean Beazley – EDSFootball  60.8%
 RB  Sean Koerner – STATS  65.9%
 WR  Jake Ciely – RotoExperts  59.4%
 TE  Sean Koerner – STATS  63.1%
 K  Jon Collins – Fantasy Sports LR  63.7%
 DST  Brandon Funston – Yahoo! Sports  61.8%
 IDP  Jeff Ratcliffe – Pro Football Focus  58.3%

This wraps up 2014’s accuracy contest. Congratulations again to John Paulsen for topping the field of pundits. Thanks also to all of the experts that competed this season. There was plenty of great advice handed out that helped fantasy owners and we were happy to evaluate the predictions.

We’ll be back again next season to run the accuracy competition. In the meantime, you can view the full standings both overall & by position to see how the entire field rated. Thanks!

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3Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
4Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
5Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
6Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
7Davante Adams (GB)WR
8DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
9James Conner (PIT)RB
10Le'Veon Bell (NYJ)RB
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14David Johnson (ARI)RB
15Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)WR
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17Nick Chubb (CLE)RB
18Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
19JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT)WR
20Antonio Brown (OAK)WR
21George Kittle (SF)TE
22Zach Ertz (PHI)TE
23Mike Evans (TB)WR
24Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
25A.J. Green (CIN)WR
26T.Y. Hilton (IND)WR
27Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
28Patrick Mahomes (KC)QB
29Aaron Jones (GB)RB
30Keenan Allen (LAC)WR
1Mike Trout (LAA)CF,DH
2Mookie Betts (BOS)CF,RF
3Christian Yelich (MIL)LF,CF
4Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
5Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
6J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
7Jose Ramirez (CLE)2B,3B
8Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
9Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
10Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
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11Bryce Harper (PHI)CF,RF
12Manny Machado (SD)3B,SS
13Trevor Story (COL)SS
14Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
15Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
16Paul Goldschmidt (STL)1B
17Aaron Judge (NYY)RF,DH
18Javier Baez (CHC)2B,3B
19Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
20Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
21Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
22Gerrit Cole (HOU)SP
23Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
24Trevor Bauer (CLE)SP
25Blake Snell (TB)SP
26Anthony Rendon (WSH)3B
27Andrew Benintendi (BOS)LF,CF
28Chris Sale (BOS)SP
29Whit Merrifield (KC)1B,2B
30Corey Kluber (CLE)SP
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3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (GSW)SF,PF
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8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
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10Russell Westbrook (OKC)PG
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16Jimmy Butler (PHI)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (CHA)PG
18Kyrie Irving (BOS)PG,SG
19Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
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23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
26Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
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28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
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