Joakim Noah has played well through lingering injuries
Mike Catron rambles on about the fantasy impact of NBA Box Scores. Since watching every single game is impossible if you have a real job, one of the best ways to stay knowledgeable on fantasy basketball is to analyze the box scores. Watch the Boxes will help you by relying on 12 years of fantasy basketball experience, and a healthy obsession with the NBA, while occasionally providing strategy, waiver wire, and trade tips. Watch the Boxes can be found semi-daily on Empeopled.com. You can complain to him about his bad advice on Twitter @LTdeng_mc.
This is based on 10-12 man leagues. Adjust accordingly. I prefer shallow leagues, so I’ll start leaning toward using ESPN/Yahoo % owned as a benchmark instead of my own leagues
CHI (102) @ CHA (95) – Joakim Noah had a slow start to the year, but has put up some vintage Noah stat lines in the last few games and impressively, while he has been hurt. He rolled his ankle bad against the Mavs and rolled it again against the Hornets. I’m not sure if this is a good that he is playing well despite of that, or bad that he is forced to play on it at all. Noah does have a history of lingering injuries, but so do most big men. With the glut of front court talent, and Derrick Rose jacking up shots, Noah still expects to have a sharp decline from last year’s top 20 finish. Sell high. Speaking of D Rose, did you know he attempts more 3 pointers per game than Kyle Korver… Why? This is good for fantasy owners though, unless you care about FG%. He has also been shooting poorly from the free throw line for some strange reason. It is too early to tell, but I don’t think you are going to get a top 15 point guard out of him this year. Speaking of slow start PGs, Kemba Walker is also shooting a poor FT%, but I expect that to adjust back to normal. If you were expecting good FG% out of him, you are doing it wrong, but at least Kemba provides STLs, and his assists are starting to come back up. I’ll say it again: Nikola Mirotic
LAL (95) @ WSH (111) – Bradley Beal was on my bad list, so of course he goes off, and starts dropping the assists he needs to actually take a fantasy leap. But lets slow down a tad, because he went off against the Lakers. The terrible, no defense Lakers. He still needs to string together some games where he does more than score. Marcin Gortat also played very well, but he has been playing well for the last week or so. And Gortat is known to play very well for a while and then come back down to his standard/boring lines. Enjoy it, or sell high if you can trick someone with his streak. The Lakers are impossible, but at least you know Kobe Bryant and Nick Young will shoot the lights out. Kobe has taken it upon himself to put up insane stats all year, and Swaggy has just taken it upon himself to shoot. Young will get you points and 3’s and not much else. Poor Jeremy Lin, just when you thought he was gaining a little bit of traction, he craps the bed. I’m expecting more of his recent levels moving forward.
DET (102) @ BOS (109) – Andre Drummond is alive! I’ve talked about how Stan Van is trying to mold him into an all-around big man, not just a put-back dunker. And while he will still have trouble with this role, it is good to see him put together some games. I have been telling people to buy low on Drummond for a while. He will bounce back, he is young enough to improve. Also, if people are punting FT% in your league, he is now trade bait for them when he starts to blow up. Josh Smith has been balling, and not shooting threes for once. Well not shooting a lot of threes. I would normally tell you to sell high with Smith at all times. As a roto player, I’m an avid J Smooth hater, but there is the chance that Stan Van has made a change in his game. If so, this could be an up-swing with Smith, not that he’ll ever shoot the ball well, but maybe he will start getting his gaudy REB and BLK stats he used to. I’d hold on to him right now, and see how it plays out.
Kelly Olynyk also made my bad list and believe me he has been bad. But even though he lost his starting job, which is normally a good sign to drop, he put together a career game. I was wrong about dropping him to pick up Tyler Zeller, knee jerk indeed. If you think this is going to be a typical line though, you are dead wrong. There is a reason he is on the bench. So, if you are rolling with him, you can either play the guess right game, start an on-average mediocre player, or look on the waivers for a better player (which is what I would do in standard leagues). Rondo apparently can’t or won’t shoot and has gone full Rondo mode. Not a good sign overall, but enjoy those rare assists.
SAS (93) @ BKN (95) – Spurs shot horrible last night, but the Nets really seemed to want to lose this game. Danny Green had an open look into OT and turned the ball over. Speaking of Green, he is just filling up the stat sheet in 9-cat, and shooting elite 3’s plus getting blocks. He is only owned in 53% of leagues, and I’m wondering how I’ve been missing him, because apparently he is owned in all of my leagues for a while. He becomes great when he gets the minutes, and the Spurs allow guys like Green to shine, even when they don’t sit their starters.
Brooklyn got a great game out of almost all their players, except Joe Johnson. Normally it’s the other way around. Not a good sign that they still almost lost. Brook Lopez finally got tired of you people talking about how he doesn’t rebound. I’m not expecting teams to miss this many shots against the Nets in the future though. Mirza Teletovic is the most interesting guy on the Nets because you can see his stretch potential, with KG out, he got the minutes and made the most of it. He would be a good spot start when/if KG gets hurt. He isn’t very impressive with his STLs or BLKs, so only deeper leagues should consider owning him, but only if he gets the floor time.
Lightning Round
ATL (111) @ MIA (102) – When Dwyane Wade plays he doesn’t mess around, but you always have to assume he’ll sit for extended periods during the year. Mario Chalmers stepped up this game, but he is just a roller coaster night by night. You can either play the guess right game, start an on-average mediocre player, or look on the waivers for a better player. Except Chalmers is a point guard, and there are more stretch bigs in the league than guys who can drop 10+ assists. (Owned in 52% of leagues) I still think Chalmers can be owned in all leagues because of his STLs, potential, and playing time. But don’t expect these nights from him. I’m very glad defenses have left Kyle Korver alone, but it probably had to do with Luol Deng going out with a hand injury. Looks like Shabazz Napier got more minutes, but don’t think that means anything other than in deep leagues.
MEM (96) @ HOU (105) – Houston basically ran away with this one and Memphis played their bench, but my favorite deep leaguer Kostas Papanikolaou played well, but the better named Donatas Motiejunas, really had a great run. He has been playing well over the last few weeks and is worth a flyer in standard leagues while Terrance Jones is out. By the way, are we sure Terrance Jones was a real person, or did we all collectively hallucinate that first week of games?
DAL (107) @ MIL (105) – I only want to talk about Monta Ellis. Criminally underrated his whole career, he’s in his prime (only 29!) and is the poster child of wrong place/wrong time. In Golden State, he was a wonder to watch, but without a team, he was considered a chucker, even though he had to carry that team. Now on Dallas, you can see what a team dynamic has done to him. Watching him basically send 2 games into OT and into a win in such a cold-blooded fashion makes me very scared of the Dallas Mavericks. Also, with a team around him, his all around game has made him a better fantasy player, with the weird PG rotation in Dallas, he is the facilitator, improving his ASTs. His STLs have always been elite, and his FT% is underrated. He only hurts you in TOs which you shouldn’t worry about in all formats, unless you really build around the no TO style. Monta is underrated in your league, guaranteed. I think he might be in a career year.
PHI (85) @ MIN (77) – PHILLY WINS! PHILLY WINS! STOP THE PRESSES: They don’t call him MCTripleDubs for nothing. Michael Cater-Williams is almost averaging a triple double in the last week, and not just one of those lame Rondo triple dubs, or all around Joakim Noah triple dubs. We are talking almost 20-10-10; K.J. McDaniels has to start get more playing time, as well. If I don’t care about FG% or FT%, I want both of these guys on my team in all leagues. (Owned in 28% of leagues) I’ll say it again: Gorgui Dieng.
TOR (123) @ UTAH (104) – Kyle Lowry has become a monster with DeMar DeRozen out, and he shows no signs of stopping. Looks like Lou Williams and Greivis Vasquez are also benefiting. Trey Burks has the talent to play well, I wouldn’t give up on him. For deep leagues: Rodney Hood is getting the start with Alec Burke out.
ORL (84) vs LAC (114) – I was all ready to praise Kyle O’Quinn as a great spot start with Nikola Vucevic out on injury, and he still is, unless he gets a Flagrant 2 for blocking a shot and blocking Blake Griffin‘s face. It was more of a Flagrant 1.5. Still he should be picked up as a spot start in all leagues. Elfrid Payton is getting more minutes, good news for those Rondo stats, but bad news for Evan Fournier‘s minutes. For those who were doubting the Clippers, you are very short-sighted. It is a long season, and there is an Eastern Conference. Channing Frye is struggling, but he is a starter with highly proven fantasy value. **Buy Low**
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DISCLAIMER: All suggestions are made on a whim based on nothing but lots of time playing Fantasy and watching the NBA, you should make ZERO drastic moves in the first few weeks; YOU SHOULD ALWAYS consider your league format and team makeup in every move you make. ALWAYS
