Tyson Chandler seems rejuvenated playing for the Mavericks again

Mike Catron rambles on about the fantasy impact of NBA Box Scores. Since watching every single game is impossible if you have a real job, one of the best ways to stay knowledgeable on fantasy basketball is to analyze the box scores. Watch the Boxes will help you by relying on 12 years of fantasy basketball experience, and a healthy obsession with the NBA, while occasionally providing strategy, waiver wire, and trade tips. Watch the Boxes can be found semi-daily on Empeopled.com. You can complain to him about his bad advice on Twitter @LTdeng_mc.

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There were a lot of games over Thanksgiving Break, and in further hopes that people have started looking at the box scores themselves, I’ve decide to take a slight departure from my usual analysis to bring you a high level overview of the long weekend, along with some strategy.

The season is already 20% over. That’s right, you have played 20% of your games in Roto Leagues, H2H leagues have a few more weeks, but you should be right around the same percent. What does this mean? The first month is critical in understanding the layout of the league, the trends of players, their outlook for the year, the quality of your current players, and the most important thing: emerging talent. Picking up guys off the waivers at the beginning of the season can make or break your year. Come listen to times of yore when picking up Stephen Curry changed the fate of a keeper league so drastically that all the rules were rewritten. Will K.J. McDaniels change your fate? Will permanent starting time benefit Tony Wroten or Gorgui Dieng? Have you even heard of any of these people before the season? Did you stupidly think Garrett Temple was good?

You should be aggressive on the waiver wires for the first month. There will always be unknowns coming in to the year, and guys that come out of nowhere, no matter how deep your league is. A good strategy in drafts is to allow your last few picks to be guys you can live without. I’d rather take a chance on young potential guys Julius Randle or John Henson just to drop them a day or two into the season for guys who come out of the gate swinging. In fact, all season long you should be prepared to drop a player off your team. It is worth it to keep at least 2 roster spots to pick up streaky players, or take a chance with some potential.

Some people still have Rodney Stuckey on their bench or Danilo Gallinari, hoping they start playing well. Don’t wait on middle of the road players, you probably missed out on the Courtney Lee or Draymond Green. The worst case scenario is you get is a month of great play out of Green, then Danilo comes back to his old self, which was around 50th overall. Draymond is currently ranked 56th. So instead of taking a chance on potential, you waited on former talent. I would say this rarely works outside of the 4th/5th Round or so. Don’t get hung up on your guys, play the waivers aggressively.

At this point, you should know strengths and weaknesses, but more importantly you should know your opponents. Leagues aren’t won in the draft, or lost really. Every single person on your team, except Anthony Davis, should be tradeable. Find your counterpart: Are you murdering people in Rebounds and Blocks? Find the guy who isn’t and move in on his team. Round out your team, even in H2H, you still have to win a majority of categories. This is why I recommend Roto over H2H. Not only are you playing the stats game, but you are playing the points game against everyone else. Say you aren’t very good at steals, but everyone else is bad at steals too. Maybe a slight bump in steals will move you up four spots, and maybe you can get those steals off the waivers instead of trading? It becomes the game within the game. Leading by a lot in one category? Build it up even further then trade one of your solid players for two guys who are good at a stat you need. You are 3 points away from 1st place? Trade your 3pt shooter to the low point guy so he can gain some points on the 1st place guy, dropping him down. At all points of the season, there are different strategies you can make to manipulate yours and your opponents’ point results: go play roto.

Thanksgiving Review

Good:

Tyson Chandler (C – DAL)
Chandler has found his old self. He must like that Dallas air. He doesn’t fill up your 9-cat, but he does Reb/FG%/Blks at high to elite levels, and doesn’t hurt you anywhere else, other than FT%, but for a big man, that isn’t bad. Right now he is shooting 76% FT, and his career avg. is 64%; Always lean toward career average for FT%. Could Chandler be having a renaissance year? He looked pretty old in NY, but he is only 32. I would have guessed older, but the risk is there for a drop off from his current production. Even in a drop off, he does what he does great, and doesn’t hurt you elsewhere, and that Dallas team really has things working well. You could sell high, or take your chances.

Nikola Mirotic (PF – CHI)
Have I not been pushing Niko on you hard enough while Taj Gibson is out? Subtle tweets @LTDeng_mc, and mentions in multiple posts. Well, I hope the 10% of you who own him like 12.6p/8.6r/1.6a/1.4b/1.0s/1.6(3pm) in the last 5 games. That is about everything you need to fill up your 9-cat (34th overall in the last 2 weeks). His value will drop when Gibson is back, but not as hard a some might think. He’s earned his minutes. He should be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues as a spot start. Deeper leagues should own for the season.

Russell Westbrook (PG – OKC)
Westbrook is back. Is this guy human? How is he back already? Well he only posted 32/8/7 in 24 mins so he might be off to a slow start… I really want to see him run this team by himself. Stay out of the way Kevin Durant.

Jamal Crawford (SG – LAC) / Lou Williams (PG – TOR)
Crawford and Williams who might have been cloned at birth, minus the years between them, are both heating up the league with their shooting and steals, they should be owned in all leagues right now, I’m sure Jamal is, but Lou still has some people waiting on him. He’s going to get the playing time with DeMar DeRozan out for who knows how long. DeRozan’s absence should also bump James Johnson‘s minutes as well.

Jabari Parker (SF – MIL)
Parker as with all rookies, it takes a while, usually a few seasons, to figure out your game and the NBA speed, and how that all fits together. Over the weekend, Jabari put together some quality performances. I think it will be a few more months before you will see consistency from him, but he should be a quality starter later in the season.

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Bad:

Kelly Olynyk (C – BOS)
Lost his starting role to Tyler Zeller, if you got him on your team, you should probably have Zeller on your team instead, or really anyone else on the waivers.

Copy/Paste alert:
There is a lot of hope in the return of Bradley Beal, but as a former owner and hype man of Beal, I cannot endorse him as the savior of your team. Beal is young, and is always on the cusp of making the leap. I think he will in real life, but fantasy-wise, I’m not sure how much more he can improve, other than consistency. He is actually similar to Kyle Korver, except he hurts you in both FG% and surprisingly FT%. He will turn the ball over more and make less 3pt/game. Unless he turns into more of a PG, I don’t see how he breaks the top 40.

Let me go even further: Bradley Beal won’t break the top 75

Kenneth Faried (PF – DEN)
His minutes are dropping, he is not being reported hurt, but I wouldn’t doubt if something was lingering there. Denver is not good (every time I write this they beat a good team), and Faried is having a pretty bad season. He was never an amazing fantasy guy, though he had a few months last year that was top 40. But he has never finished a full year top 80; If his minutes are going to drop I’m not sure he should have a roster spot in standard leagues.

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Intriguing:

Mo Williams – (PG – MIN)
Owned in 31% of leagues – This guy is straight ballin’ on people in Ricky Rubio‘s absence, and you should know how I feel about point guards by now. You could have convinced me his career was about over last year. Do I think he can keep this up, well maybe not to this level, but he has the minutes, he has the team around him to run, and make shots. There is no reason not to take a flyer on Mo Money. He should be owned in all leagues.

Thaddeus Young (SF – MIN) / David West (PF – IND)
Young and West are back. Young is definitely the better fantasy player and should help Mo Williams with his role, both should be owned in all leagues.

Wilson Chandler (SF – DEN) / Nerlens Noel (C – PHI)
Noel both had a very good weekend. With Noel’s uptick in playing time, I would happily take a flyer on that potential of STL/BLK combo. Wilson Chandler seems to be benefiting from a struggling Denver team, and I wonder if his production is directly related to Faried’s decline. I would ride his streak, but not expect it to last for a long time

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DISCLAIMER: All suggestions are made on a whim based on nothing but lots of time playing Fantasy and watching the NBA. YOU SHOULD ALWAYS consider your league format and team makeup in every move you make. ALWAYS*