Ndamukong Suh and the Lions top rush defense should keep the score within 6
For the non-Daily players, fantasy football is over, but that doesn’t mean we’re done asking the experts for advice. We’ve got 4 playoff games on tap this weekend and we’re sure more than a few of you have a “rooting” interest in the outcomes. To help steer you in the right direction, we polled 50+ experts to get their picks against the spread for each game.
The late game on Sunday (4:40pm EST) will showcase the top running back of 2014 against the top run defense. Let’s not forget that this matchup will also feature two of the better QBs in the league and two of the best WRs in the NFL. Grab your popcorn as this game has the second highest over/under during the Wild Card round. Read on to see who the experts like against the spread this weekend.
Wild Card Picks: Against the Spread
Arizona at Carolina (-6.5)
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3)
Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-3)
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Pick %
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53% | 47% |
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“I don’t get the Cowboys love. Yes, they could make a nice run, but they could also overlook a very strong Lions team and get bounced. The Lions should be able to keep this one close, as long as we don’t see side arming Stafford all day.”
– Jake Ciely RotoExperts “This one feels like a backdoor cover waiting to happen. The strength of this Lions team is their #1 ranked run defense, and in the last two games that DeMarco Murray was unable to reach 100 yards rushing, the Cowboys lost. Let’s not forget either that despite a record-breaking December this year, Tony Romo has a history of struggling in big games. He is 1-6 in elimination games (playoffs/playoff clinching). If the Cowboys win, it will be closer than people think.”
– Jeff Collins Fantasy Contrarians “Suh’s availability limits Dallas’ potential in the run game. They’ll win with superior offensive line play and continued success of the Romo-Dez connection, but I think that the Lions D can keep their scoring in check and thus a full TD might be too much for them to cover.”
– Jon Collins Fantasy Sports LR “Matthew Stafford is 0-17 in his career on the road against winning football teams. I’m not sure we need much more analysis than that. With that said, the Cowboys oddly aren’t amazing at home and their defense is far from elite. I like Dallas to win, but I don’t love the spread. I think Detroit can keep it close enough in what could be the best game of the weekend. The Lions still lose, but not by more than six.”
– Kevin Roberts Breaking Football “The Lions defense can hold the Cowboys in check, and their offense will do enough to keep the game close. “
– Justin Boone The Score “I’m going to take the points with Detroit, but I expect Dallas to win this game. Dallas always seems to get in their own way in the playoffs and in big games so it wouldn’t surprise me if they had to come from behind to win. “
– Dennis Esser Coach Esser “The Cowboys are arguably playing the best football headed into the playoffs, but they draw a tough matchup against a very good front seven. I think the Lions can get to Tony Romo which will lead to a few mistakes. The Cowboys don’t have any match for Golden Tate, and I expect Tate to have a monster day. I like the Lions in the upset. “
– Sean Beazley EDSFootball  “The Cowboys play better on the road than they do at Jerry World, and the Lions have enough firepower to keep it close.”
– John Paulsen 4for4.com “It is strength vs. strength in Big D as the Lions’ No. 1 run defense will attempt to contain the no. 2 ranked Dallas rushing attack. It’s Detroit’s offense, however, that will set the tone and expose the ‘Boys suspect secondary.”
– Wayne Bretsky BretskyBall “Used to work in a Vegas sportsbook and know this line was inflated a bit in anticipation of majority of money coming in on Dallas. The public has been jumping to conclusions on Dallas all year – beginning of year they were “terrible” and now that same team is “elite”. Still think they will pull off the win, but it’ll be close…take the +6.5″
– Sean Koerner STATS “No way can I lay 6.5 points in a playoff game with the Jason Garrett-coached, Tony Romo-quarterbacked Cowboys. Yes, I know, Dallas has been terrific this year. Maybe the ghosts of playoff failures past are just that — ghosts. But I’ll back the ghosts catching 6.5 points.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice The Football Girl “The Cowboys didn’t lose a game on the road this year but have lost at home. Ndamukong Suh being able to play will help Detroit stifle the Dallas running game putting the game in Tony Romo’s hands. That should keep things close as I like the point spread here.”
– Walton Spurlin Fantasy Sharks “People seem to forget just how good the Lions defense has been. Detroit gave up the fewest rushing yards per game, the second fewest total yards per game and the third least points per game. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have given up the seventh most passing yards in the league this season. Dallas should end up with the win but I think it will be closer than man expect.”
– The FFGhost Dynasty League Football “The Cowboys were 8-0 on the road and just 4-4 at home and the time is right for Romo, to be Romo. The stage is set, everything is too perfect. For me, I don’t care how good the Cowboys have been this year; they are always that one Romo play away from choking in crunch time. See Romo versus Peyton Manning in Week 5 last year and that late key interception after he was lights out all day. I’m confident in this because, despite the woes of what should be a dominant Lions offense, it’s been their defense that’s kept them in the playoff hunt this year. That Defense gets Ndamukong Suh off suspension after winning his appeal and the offense gets veteran center Dominic Raiola back. Conversely the Cowboys will be without their best defensive lineman, Henry Melton; which hurts a defense already at the bottom of the league in sacks this year. Stafford returns to his home state of Texas and has too many weapons, that even if Cowboys get up in the score, they have the firepower to come back. I’ll confidently take the Lions and 6.5 points.”
– Scott Whitfield Roto Rankings “Just as I think in the Arizona-Carolina game, the 6.5 points in a playoff game is quite a bit. While the Cowboys have been good this year, I don’t see them blowing out the Lions. The Cowboys secondary still has issues, and Calvin Johnson murdered them last year. I see the Cowboys winning, but not by a touchdown or more. “
– Mike Tagliere Tags Fantasy Football “I wouldn’t pick the Lions to win outright, but their defense keeps this one close enough to cover.”
– Jeff Ratcliffe Pro Football Focus “Against physical defenses in 2014 (SF, STL, HOU, SEA, ARI, PHI 2x), Dallas compiled a moderate 4-3 record…with a kind of miracle comeback win vs. STL, and an OT coin-flip win vs. HOU. Dallas hasn’t been as efficient facing tougher defenses this season…a defense like Detroit possesses. I’m not saying Dallas will lose, but laying 6.5 points to a physical team like Detroit is a lot to ask. I’ll take the points. “
– R.C. Fischer Fantasy Football Metrics “Detroit has the best rush defense in the league, as they only allow 69.3 yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. While Romo has been amazing this year, completing 69% of his throws, and 236 yards per game, he will face an improved Detroit secondary that has 20 interceptions, and a front seven that has 42 sacks. I believe Dallas will pull this one out, but Lions will cover. “
– Dan Yanotchko EDSFootball “Dallas comes into the playoffs hot, drawing plenty of consideration as the one team from the first round who could make it to the Super Bowl. But taking into account their entire body of work, I don’t see them as markedly better than Detroit, who has a good offense that doesn’t quite measure up to that of Dallas but also a stronger defense. I’d expect the margin of victory to be within a touchdown, so it makes grabbing the points an easy decision.”
– R.J. White Fantasy Football Cafe “I’ve loaded up on Dallas players in my playoff leagues, so I hope I’m wrong here. But Matthew Stafford has a 0-17 record on the road against teams with a winning record during his career, so I’m banking on being right. “
– Dalton Del Don Yahoo “Detroit’s defense has been borderline dominant all season, especially their run d. I like this matchup for them, even if you aren’t giving me the points. Calvin Johnson is finally happy and in his only other playoff game he went for 200+ yards. I expect them to run their offense through him this weekend, and get good results by doing so. “
– Russell Clay Dynasty League Football “Winning against teams above .500 on the road have been a huge problem for Matthew Stafford during his tenure vs. the Lions. However, the Cowboys haven’t exactly overwhelmed in postseason play in the 21st Century. Detroit will cover and could even win outright.”
– Dan Clasgens Get Sports Info |
“Page when when Matthew Stafford beats anyone of consequence in a road game. “
– Scott Pianowski Yahoo “Of all the games this wildcard weekend, it’s the matchup between the Lions and Cowboys that have me the most torn on who to pick. If the Lions stout run defense can slow DeMarco Murray, the game will be put in hands of Tony Romo, which means things could go either way. I think this game will be close, but I like the Cowboys to Cover. “
– Mike Rigz Gridiron Experts “Dallas has done a solid job this year and proven a lot of skeptics wrong. Expect the team to win against the Lions this weekend. “
– James Hatfield Hatty Waiver Wire Guru “The Cowboys have outscored their opponents by 62 points in their last two games while the anemic Lions offense hasn’t been able to put up more than 20 points in their last three games. These ‘Boys are legit.”
– Igor Derysh XN Sports “DeMarco Murray’s YPC dipped down to about 3.9 over his last 5 games and Detroit ranks best against the run this season, allowing less than 70 rushing yards per game! However, Dallas is one of the hottest teams in football right now, and sometimes that all you need… This is Tony Romo’s last chance to define himself as a QB with the ability to perform in the playoffs for America’s Team. “
– Tozzi Brothers Legion Report “Dallas simply cannot lose this game. While the Lions are the perfect team to matchup against the Cowboys as they are probably one of the few defenses that can limit Murray, the Cowboys cannot lose this game at home. Tony Romo will have to do whatever it takes, because if the Cowboys lose this one they may never have faith for a Superbowl in the Romo ERA again.”
– Muntradamus Beast Dome “Dallas is 3-0 against the spread in their last three, while Detroit is 0-3. Detroit also hasn’t played nearly as well on the road as they have at home, either. As I said earlier, away dogs have covered the majority of the time this year, but I’m going to go against the trend in this one. “
– Pat James Fantasy Council “Tony Romo’s playoff struggles versus Detroit’s woeful playoff history. Begrudgingly, I’ll go with the Cowboys and the belief their offensive line can neutralize the Lions primary strength, their defensive front. Fantasy hero: The obvious answer is Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant, but let me go with Golden Tate especially in PPR formats. The Cowboys defense allows opposing QBs to complete 66.5 percent of their throws. That’s fourth worst in the NFL, tied with the Redskins. Dallas must try everything to stop Megatron, leaving Tate in single coverage throughout.”
– Ben Standig CSN Washington “Matt Stafford and the Lions have been pretty pathetic on the road this season. It won’t be much different this weekend in the big D.”
– Joe Bond Fantasy Six Pack “This might be a homer pick, but I like the Dallas Cowboys a lot in this game. Megatron will be doubled-teamed all game which will cause issues for Matthew Stafford. I’m sorry Golden Tate is a nice No.2 WR, but the Cowboys defense will contain.”
– Paul Greco FantasyPros911 “Somehow the NFL’s dirtiest player escaped a one-game suspension after mistaking Aaron Rodgers for a Lambeau Field gopher-hole. No matter…the Cowboys are hotter than any team in the league right now, and they roll at home.”
– Micah James Micah James – FFMagicMan “Dallas scoring at will heading into the playoffs. Stafford not showing much of late, especially on the road. “
– Chris Meaney Fantasy Sports LR “There are a couple stats about the Lions that bother me in this game. QB Matthew Stafford is (0-16) in road games against teams with winning records and (0-3) this season. They lost those 3 games by a combined score of 78-35. This team comes up small on the road and Dallas has the best offensive line in football, which should help them against Detroit’s stout run defense. I like the Cowboys to not only win, but to cover the spread at home.”
– Derek Lofland FFManiax “Perhaps I’m biased as a Cowboys fan, but their offense has been playing lights out over the past month — 41.25 PPG over their past four games. While DeMarco Murray (and the offensive line) get a lot of attention for leading the NFL in rushing, Tony Romo actually led the league in passer rating (113.2) and completion percentage (69.9%) with a 34:9 TD-to-INT ratio despite throwing only 435 pass attempts.”
– Kevin Hanson EDSFootball “While the Panthers have had a clutch December, the Cowboys have been absolutely dominant in December winning by an average of 21.5 points in what used to be Tony Romo’s least favorite time of year. The Cowboys look like the best team in the NFL to me and teams will be copying their blueprint in the offseason of putting so much of your resources into your offensive line. While the Lions have been the best run defense in the league, I’ll take the Dallas trenches and the Tony Romo play action “chunk plays” over the erratic and inconsistent Matt Stafford. Detroit is 2-5 ATS over their last 7 while Dallas is 4-1 ATS over their last 5. Dallas by double-digits.”
– Tom Poisal Top Tier Football “Detroit hasn’t really beat anybody if you look closely at their schedule. Their “better” wins are against New Orleans, Atlanta and split their two contests against Green Bay. That’s about it. Dallas has the better offense and Detroit simply won’t be able to keep up.”
– Matt De Lima FF Toolbox “The Lions are notorious ATS and playoff underachievers and the Cowboys are red hot. It’s worth noting that in the past 2 seasons the Lions have managed just one win against a team that ended that season with a winning record. That win came in Week 3 against the same Packers team that demolished them last week. “
– Sean Morris Bruno Boys “This is a classic case of an immovable object against an unstoppable force, the Lions being the immovable object and the Cowboys being the unstoppable force. I’ll take Dallas but I wouldn’t bet on them covering the spread.”
– Zach Greubel Gridiron Experts “As you may have heard, Matthew Stafford has an 0-17 record on the road against teams with a winning record in his career. A visit to one of the most dangerous teams in this year’s playoffs isn’t likely to break that streak. “
– Jason Willan Gridiron Experts “I like Dallas in this game, but it should be the best of the week. I think Detrot’s secondary can be had, especially by Romo/Dez/Witten. Also, for as much as people bash Romo, I’d much rather have him than Matthew Stafford in a playoff game.”
– Adam Pfeifer ProjectRoto “The Boys have been rolling, and outside of Megatron, Stafford and DeAndre Levy, I just don’t think Detroit is all that good. “
– Kevin Kumpf Razzball “The Cowboys are another team playing at a very high level. The offense is clicking and the defense is playing as well as they have all season. Dallas is going to be a very tough out in the playoffs as long as Tony Romo keeps rolling. Detroit had a great season but have been led by the defense more so than the offense, which is a concern in this matchup. I’m just not sure they can score enough points to take down the Cowboys.”
– Jeff Paur RTSports “It’s playoff time, so that means it’s time for a meltdown for the Dallas Cowboys. Oh wait, they’re facing a Lions team that suffers in the playoffs, too? That makes things interesting. For as much as I love Megatron and want to see him and the Lions find playoff success, I just don’t think it’s in the cards yet again. The Cowboys offense has been producing very well, and…hey look…Tony Romo finished the regular season with the best QB rating in the league this season. Romo quietly had the best season of his career. Now is the time to get the playoff monkey of his back,and I see him and the Cowboys outlasting Detroit in this one. I know the Lions defense is tops in the league, but it won’t be enough this week. “
– Kelly Smelser Punch Drunk Wonderland |
Thanks to the experts for giving us their picks. Agree or disagree? You can discuss in the comment section below.
