Michael Wacha has two favorable matchups in week 4
Daniel Marcus takes us through this week’s options. Be sure to review our Two-Start Pitcher Rankings chart.
Players I Like
Michael Wacha (4/28 PHI, 5/03 PIT)
Wacha has had a great start to the season, and hasn’t gotten a whole lot of credit for it. He is pitching way over his head as shown by a 98.8% strand rate and .206 BABIP. But until the he struggles, you might as well enjoy his productivity. This week he faces the Phillies who average only 2.56 runs/game, worst in the majors. Although the Pirates have improved recently, they are still a middling offense and strike out at the 9th highest rate in the majors, 8.25 times per game.
Collin McHugh (4/27 @SD, 5/02 SEA)
McHugh has had a great start to the season, and his peripherals back up his performance so far. Specifically, McHugh’s 54.7% groundball rate makes him a safe play. Although San Diego’s offense has been dangerous thus far, McHugh will have the large confines of Petco Park to soften the blow. Seattle’s lineup hasn’t lived up to expectations so far this season, and McHugh has already shown he can handle them.
Ubaldo Jimenez (4/27 CHW, 5/03 TB)
This is the riskiest pick this week and places faith both on what Jimenez has been able to do this season and his opponents this week. Jimenez has stranded 90.2% of his base runners this year and has a 68.6% groundball rate. These numbers are easy to be skeptical of and should not be trusted over the long term. However, he is facing two of the worst lineups, so I’ll take the gamble on his early season success for one more week.
Players I Don’t Like
Anibal Sanchez (4/28 @MIN, 5/3 @KC)
The only reason anyone owns Anibal Sanchez right now is name recognition. Nothing stands out as terribly wrong for Sanchez from last season except an awful groundball rate and a highly inflated HR/9. Facing a hitting team in Kansas City will do nothing to help him in that regard, and he has already shown he can’t be trusted against lineups that have been struggling. I’m not touching Sanchez right now.
Joe Kelly (4/27 TOR, 5/03 NYY)
Kelly faces the top two run-producing offenses, so although he has pitched fairly well this season, I’m not banking on him this week. Given his 39.6% groundball rate and 1.02 HR/9, I’m concerned about his results. Kelly has also had good BABIP luck, but that could be coming to an end with two lineups that are hitting the ball hard right now.
Yovani Gallardo (4/27 SEA, 5/03 OAK)
Gallardo has been a pleasant surprise this year, seeing resurgence in his strikeout rate, and has pitched well even with a poor BABIP suggesting that with some good luck, his numbers could be even better. It is certainly possible that this will continue this week, but I worry about his matchup at Oakland. Though it doesn’t strike fear in anyone looking at their lineup, Oakland has found a way to get runs across the plate which is bad news for a pitcher with a high BABIP. Gallardo has been impressive so far this year, but I can’t buy him this week.
Daniel Marcus is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Daniel, check out his archive.
