Matt Forte’s fantasy value could be overvalued with a new coach in town

If there’s one mistake to avoid, it’s picking players who are valued higher than they should be. Of course there’s no way of knowing for sure what a player will accomplish this upcoming season, but there are underlying factors that should be mentioned to at least quell some of the hype that’s been put out there.

After all, this is football, and crazy things happen before and during a season. Just ask all the Adrian Peterson owners from a year ago. Sure that’s a completely different case, but there are circumstances that should make you think about why these guys are going as high as they are. To help, we’ve asked our featured experts to name players at each position who are overvalued.

Expert Pick Recap

Q1. Name the RB you believe is the most overvalued according to our RB ADP Rankings and tell us why you feel that way.

Matt Forte (CHI)
Consensus RB ADP: #6
“Forte isn’t going to be as good as he was in 2014 or really as good as we’re accustomed to seeing. Marc Trestman’s system ballooned his value at an insane rate. He caught 70+ balls (102 last year) in each of the past two years and had previously topped even 57 just once. Now 29 and never a huge touchdown scorer, I think Forte as the 6th best RB is a reach. In a new system with a somewhat reduced role, I’m looking at Forte as the 11th best back with a possible decline on its way. The hit will be felt more in PPR leagues, but in general I think Forte regresses a bit.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)

Todd Gurley (STL)
Consensus RB ADP: #20
“He is less than a year removed from ACL surgery. Gurley’s ADP represents a great deal of optimism from the fantasy community. Hope is not a strategy. I would prefer to draft other players with the same amount of upside at his current ADP. Tre Mason will be more valuable than many people think. The Rams are not going to rush Gurley back onto the field.”
– Eric Moody (FFLockerRoom)

“Rookie Todd Gurley, currently coming off the board as the 20th running back on average, is a dicey proposition as he hobbles his way into his first NFL season. While it’s difficult to set high expectations for any rookie, it is even more tough to envision one (even an immensely talented one) having success after missing much of the preseason while rehabbing a torn ACL. Gurley is unlikely to have a large role in the early part of the season and the presence of 2014 breakout Tre Mason will give the Rams the ability to work him in slowly as we move into the fall. Pass on Gurley as the RB20 and look further down the list to potential bell cows Joseph Randle, LaGarrette Blount, Doug Martin or Chris Ivory as your second or third back.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall)

Carlos Hyde (49ers)
Consensus RB ADP: #17
“There are a lot of question marks surrounding the 49ers. One thing we do know is that they’re going to have to pass. A lot. That means a less than optimal game script for Hyde. With rumors of Geep Chryst leaning towards a committee approach, I’m backing off of Hyde.”
– Liz Loza (Yahoo)

Q2. Name the WR you believe is the most overvalued according to our WR ADP Rankings and tell us why you feel that way.

Kelvin Benjamin (CAR)
Consensus WR ADP: #14
“Benajmin put together a phenomenal season during his 2014 rookie campaign, showing ability to win downfield and make plays for his quarterback. He also flashed inconsistency at times, proving to be a raw route runner with questionable hands. Down the stretch last season, the Panthers got back to their old ground-and-pound identity, riding Jonathan Stewart and a dominating front seven to smother opponents. Add in the fact the rookie Devin Funchess provides a second solid target for Cam Newton and you have a recipe for Benjamin to be a disappointment when drafting him as a top-15 wide receiver. Take a look lower down on the list at potential target monsters Andre Johnson, Julian Edelman or Keenan Allen rather than chasing Benjamin’s 1000-yard, nine touchdown rookie performance.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall)

Emmanuel Sanders (DEN)
Consensus WR ADP: #13
“He has publicly stated that it will be difficult to replicate his 2014 production this upcoming season. New Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak’s offensive scheme revolves around three things: a zone blocking rushing attack, leveraging the tight ends in the receiving game, and relentlessly feeding the X wide receiver with targets. Sanders will not have enough opportunities to justify his high ADP.”
– Eric Moody (FFLockerRoom)

Kevin White (CHI)
Consensus WR ADP: #32
“We all know the “John Fox hates rookies” narrative, which makes getting on the field early even more important for White. Plus, his quarterback favors familiarity more than most. While White is gifted with incredible athletic attributes, an understanding of Adam Gase’s offense is what will help him to ascend immediately. There’s potential for him to emerge midseason and he’s likely to have a few flashy plays, but I don’t see him catching more than 40 balls by season’s end.”
– Liz Loza (Yahoo)

Antonio Brown (PIT)
Consensus WR ADP: #1
“I know I should probably bite my tongue but Antonio Brown as the consensus #1 is scary to me. I know he was amaze balls the past two years and probably is still a top-five guy but career years are rarely topped/repeated. He’s in a great offense but he also has solid talent around him trying to bust out (Sammie Coates, Markus Wheaton and of course Martavis Bryant). My biggest thing with Brown, though, is that he’s not a big WR so his TD upside might be a little more curbed than some might want to think. I see the talent, production and upside, but that top portion of the WR group is stacked. I’m not seeing what 100% makes him the pick over the other elite receivers.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)

Q3. Name the QB you believe is the most overvalued according to our QB ADP Rankings and tell us why you feel that way.

Russell Wilson (SEA)
Consensus QB ADP: #4
“I think Russell Wilson is slightly overrated. He’s absolutely a QB1 and a top-10 guy, but being drafted as the fourth quarterback or higher (Yahoo, ESPN, NFL.com) is a bit rich for me. Wilson did inherit Jimmy Graham, but this is still a guy who is restricted by a run-heavy system and his elite production in 2014 stemmed from ridiculous rushing totals. If there’s one thing we’ve learned, it’s that QB rushing scores/yardage are difficult to compute, let alone trust. I still like him as a borderline top-5 option, but I don’t like the price I’d have to pay to land him.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)

“While there are few real world QBs that are more desirable to pilot an offense than Russell Wilson, his current draft cost (QB4, 35th overall) is just far to steep to take the plunge. Wilson’s legs give him a solid week-to-week floor and his touchdown potential is certainly improved by the presence of Jimmy Graham, however, the volume is just not there. Of the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks last season, Wilson was the only one to attempt fewer than 520 passes. His fantasy success in 2015 was largely tied to the 800+ yards and six touchdowns that he put together on the ground and after the Seahawks made a huge investment in their franchise QB, it stands to reason that they’ll want to protect their most valuable asset and limit his exposure to injury. Volume is a fantasy owner’s best friend and Russell Wilson is a bit lacking when it comes to putting the ball in the air, leaving him as a risky investment with a top-40 overall pick.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall)

Drew Brees (NO)
Consensus QB ADP: #5
“Last year his passing yards and touchdown totals were the lowest they’d been since 2010. Heading into 2015, he’s got a second year receiver (who only started seven games his rookie year) and a 32-year-old vet as his primary receiving weapons. In an offense moving towards the run and without Jimmy Graham (who accounted for a quarter of red zone targets), Brees’ productivity will take a hit.”
– Liz Loza (Yahoo)

Cam Newton (CAR)
Consensus QB ADP: #9
He finished as a top five fantasy quarterback his first three NFL seasons, but injuries derailed his fourth. Newton’s passing numbers, rushing attempts, and rushing yards continue to trend downward each season. I would rather wait a few rounds and draft Ryan Tannehill or Eli Manning.
– Eric Moody (FFLockerRoom)

Care to agree or disagree? Come talk about it in our Forum

—

Thank you to the experts for naming their overvalued players. Be sure to follow them on Twitter for more advice.