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The 4 Riskiest Draft Picks

Aug 4, 2015

The 49ers could be playing from behind, and catching the ball isn't Hyde's known specialty

The 49ers could be playing a lot from behind, and catching the ball isn’t Carlos Hyde’s known specialty

With fantasy drafts ramping up, there’s a need to assess the risk/reward factor of certain players when considering your team makeup. If you’re picking based on last year’s performance or a change in the depth chart, be cautious of overlooking some other facts.

It’s definitely worth considering all angles when taking a player, especially with a valuable early round pick. We’ve asked our featured experts to weigh in by naming their riskiest players that are currently going in the top 50 of drafts. See who you should be cautious of come draft day.

Q. What player with a top 50 ADP is the riskiest for fantasy owners to draft at their current price tag?

Expert Pick Pos ADP
Mike Hume (The Washington Post) Odell Beckham Jr. – Giants WR 12
Kyle Wachtel (FootballGuys) Carlos Hyde – 49ers RB 37
Eric Mack (FanDuel) C.J. Anderson – Broncos RB 11
Matt Lutovsky (Sporting News) Arian Foster – Texans RB 7
Rumford Johnny (Rummy and Ray Podcast) Carlos Hyde – 49ers RB 37

Carlos Hyde (RB – SF)
Overall ADP: #37
“San Francisco will head into the season without two of their starting offensive lineman from last year, Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati. On top of that, the defense has been decimated, which previously helped the 49ers offense be one of the top units in NFL average starting field position. That defense also kept them in close, low-scoring games, lending to a game flow that favored the run. With the team bound to be playing from behind more often than in the past, newly acquired Reggie Bush can be expected to see plenty of playing time. And as strictly a two-down player in an unfavorable situation, it’s tough to get behind Hyde at his current ADP, which places him on the Round 3/4 turn.”
Kyle Wachtel (FootballGuys)

“A depleted interior offensive line and a defense that lost multiple starters to retirement, is a recipe for a team that looks to playing from behind this year. Hyde is a downhill banger that would thrive with volume (ala Marshawn Lynch), but not in a scenario where he’ll be asked to catch passes out of the backfield in the 4th quarter. That role should belong to Reggie Bush, and it’s tough to envision Hyde will have many top 12 PPR weeks on a team that’s declining.”
Rumford Johnny (Rummy and Ray Podcast)

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – NYG) 
Overall ADP: #12
“I love him, but Beckham Jr. is going in the top 15 and has exactly 12 games under his belt. That’s not a big track record at a position that is actually pretty deep at top tiers. If people want to overbid on him, let them.”
Mike Hume (The Washington Post)

C.J. Anderson (RB – DEN)
Overall ADP: #11
“He had some good weeks down the stretch, but he was a volume back who is going to be impacted by a healthy Montee Ball. Remember, the Broncos drafted Ball in the second round with Anderson on the roster. Anderson is no sure thing after his rags-to-riches tale.”
Eric Mack (FanDuel)

Arian Foster (RB – HOU)
Overall ADP: #7
*Editor’s note: This piece was written before news broke about Foster’s groin injury.

“It’s easy to argue over a lot of players in the top 50, but Arian Foster stands out to me as the riskiest. Everyone was scared of Foster last year, with his ADP falling to the third or fourth round. Even though he put up big numbers, he still missed three games. Now, a year older and on what looks to be a shaky offense, we’re saying he’s a top-seven player? I’m not buying at that price.”
Matt Lutovsky (Sporting News)

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Thank you to the experts for naming their riskiest players to draft based on ADP. Be sure to follow them on Twitter for more advice.

Busts, Featured, Featured Pros, NFL