Week 3 saw some unlikely breakout performances in the likes of Devonta Freeman, continued domination by Julio Jones, the destruction of Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers making quarterbacking look stupid easy. After this week you will be a quarter of the way through your fantasy season. Get to work on the waiver wire and start selling high and buying low.
WEEK 3 RECAP
Let’s take a look at a quick recap from Week 3.
I Knew It
Brandon Marshall –WR – New York Jets – 10 rec/109 yds/1 TD
He finished as the WR10 rather than the WR1, but with no Decker he saw 13 targets. He wishes he could get that bizarre lateral attempt back.
Lance Dunbar – RB – Dallas Cowboys – 1 rush/5 yds, 10 rec/100 yds
He may not have been the “running back to own” in Dallas this week with Joseph Randle’s three touchdowns, but hauling in all 10 of his targets for 100 yards was good for 20 points, the most of Dunbar’s season.
Latavius Murray – RB – Oakland Raiders – 26 rush/139 yds/1 TD
He did indeed have his best fantasy day of 2015.
Jordan Matthews – WR – Philadelphia Eagles – 6 rec/49 yds
I warned that you should have little hope for a respectable fantasy output from him.
Saints QB TBD – Luke McCown – 31 comp/310 yds/0TD/1INT
I hope you did find another quarterback last week, because McCown was not the answer.
Lamar Miller – RB – Miami Dolphins – 7 rush/38 yds, 3 rec/27 yds
Fantasy owners were already frustrated with Miller, and he is quickly approaching bust status.
Larry Donnell – TE – New York Giants – 3 rec/32 yds
If he did not flat out drop that pass on third down in the red zone he may have been on my “I Blew It” list. Speaking of…
I Blew It
Russell Wilson – QB – Seattle Seahawks – 20 comp/235 yds/1 TD, 6 rush/28 yds
This was not his best fantasy output on the season. How he managed less than 300 yards and just one score against this defense is beyond me.
Vincent Jackson – WR – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 2 rec/40 yds
I could not have been more wrong when I predicted Winston would look in Jackson’s direction all day long, unless of course four targets means all day.
Calvin Johnson – WR – Detroit Lions – 8 rec/77 yds
This was a borderline knew it/blew it for me so I’ll say in standard I knew it but in PPR I kind of blew it?
WEEK 4 START/SIT SUGGESTIONS
Let’s move onto Week 4 for your start/sit suggestions.
Who’s Hot – Start
Fire Starter: Derek Carr – QB – Oakland Raiders @ Chicago Bears
Carr has quietly been having a nice season, posting back-to-back weeks of at least 300 yards and two scores. He has just one interception on the season and is currently the QB12, ahead of the Manning brothers, Alex Smith, Philip Rivers, and Blake Bortles, to name a few. He will carry his momentum forward this week against the Chicago Bears. I expect him to go for over 300 again and throw for multiple touchdowns.
Allen Hurns – WR – Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
If you thought I meant the other Allen I did not, and there are a few reasons why. Currently, there are 12 total fantasy points separating the two, with Robinson in the lead. What sticks out is they both have 11 receptions on the season but Robinson got his on 28 targets while Hurns got his on just 15 targets. Hurns appears to be doing more with his opportunities and has a juicy match up this week with Vontae Davis likely taking the Robinson duties. I like him to finish has the higher scoring Allen this week.
Rishard Matthews – WR – Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
I am not chasing last week’s 6/113/2 stat line. I am simply expecting that momentum to carry over into Week 4 with Jarvis Landry headed for a beach chair on Revis island. Matthews will still have his hands full with Cromartie and company, but the way Tannehill has targeted him over the past two weeks is promising. Miami seems to have completely abandoned their run game and we should continue to see a lot of action through the air this week. Matthews should put on a show for the home crowd while Landry cheers him on from The Island.
Jonathan Stewart – RB – Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I am recommending Stewart here because this is his last chance for me and fantasy owners alike. If he cannot bounce back to fantasy relevance this week he will be treading dangerously close to droppable territory. Only two teams have given up more yards on the ground than the Buccaneers, who have allowed 414 rushing yards through three games. This is his last chance before the bye week to give fantasy owners a reason to hang onto him, and I think (hope?) this is his breakout game.
Karlos Williams – RB – Buffalo Bills vs. New York Giants
I am sure that any start/sit you read will recommend Williams and how could anyone not possibly recommend him? LeSean McCoy is already expected to miss this game and Mr. Ground and Pound himself will be looking to crown himself the king of New York this weekend. On paper this is not exactly a great match up. The No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL is the Buffalo Bills. Surprisingly, the number two defense is the New York Giants who have only given up 224 yards on the ground this season, two more than the Bills. With that said, opportunity knocks for Williams this week and he should seize it. The Giants will have to put a spy on Tyrod Taylor which could open up some opportunities for Williams in the rushing and short reception game. Sammy Watkins could miss this game and the offense should go through Williams. While he will ultimately not supplant the expensive McCoy as the team’s starter this season, I think he will certainly make his case and score on top of his 20 touches.
Kyle Rudolph – TE – Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos
The Broncos are the best overall defense in the NFL. They will be facing, arguably, the best running back in the NFL this Sunday. Denver will devote a lot of resources to containing Adrian Peterson this weekend and Rudolph could be the bail out beneficiary. No receiver has really established himself as Bridgewater’s security blanket. Outside of Peterson, Rudolph appears to be it. With the Broncos focusing on the rush and Mike Wallace stretching the field deep, the middle of the field should be open for Rudolph when the Broncos bring the blitz. He is one of Bridgewater’s favorite red zone targets and he should catch 5+ passes this weekend and score.
Who’s Not – Sit
Ice Cold: Justin Forsett – RB – Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Forsett was a mid third to fourth round draft selection this summer and he has not paid off yet. The Trestman effect appears to have died in Chicago and all of those targets in the passing game Forsett was supposed to see have not been there. When you factor in this being a Thursday night match up against a top 10 rushing defense you just have to bench Forsett this week.
C.J. Anderson – RB – Denver Broncos vs. Minnesota Vikings
Anderson’s abysmal start makes no sense to anyone, especially those who spent a first or second round pick on him, but it is time to bench him. There are too many running backs to name who have more fantasy points on the season to Anderson’s 12, but here are a few to give you an idea; Mike Tolbert, Jonathan Grimes, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Joique Bell, and teammate Ronnie Hillman. While the Vikings present a tempting matchup for Anderson to finally find his groove, he will probably burn you again and should do so from the bench.
John Brown – WR – Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams
I know he has the talent and the upside but that apparently means little in 2015 when Larry Fitzgerald is your teammate. Fitz’s revival has been bad news for Brown fantasy owners and St. Louis is a tall order for any wide receiver. As long as the Palmer/Fitzgerald flame continues to burn, Brown’s ceiling will resemble that of drop tiles in a basement.
Golden Tate – WR – Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
The Lions offense in general warrants a downgrade across the board. Calvin Johnson and Eric Ebron are pulling away as the scoring leaders for this team and though the targets are there (20), Tate is not doing enough with them. The Seahawks at home are tough to score on. Though I usually cannot resist a revenge game, I can see it going the other way with the Seahawks completely stifling Tate this weekend.
Ryan Tannehill – QB – Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Tannehill has been a disappointment and is currently outside of the top 10. He has four interceptions to his five touchdowns on the season and has a terrible match up against the New York Jets. This week you definitely need to look for another quarterback to start. After this week, you may be looking for another quarterback for the rest of your season.
Gary Barnidge – TE – Cleveland Browns @ San Diego Chargers
Do not be that person who chases last week’s points. Barnidge is emerging as a consistent target for whichever quarterback is under center in Cleveland, but no team allows less yards through the air than the San Diego Chargers. He had a boom last week but is sure to bust this week. Keep him on your bench or waivers for the time being, especially this week.
I do not have a crystal ball and can only rely on research and good old intuition. I may hit or miss on a few but these are my honest predictions for this week. I’ll keep myself honest with a full disclosure section next week when I give you your who’s hot, who’s not for Week 5. Consider my recommendations here, but ultimately trust in yourself. Good luck!