Anthony Davis’ elite all-around game makes him an easy selection at No. 1 overall on Draft Day
After the 2011-12 season, the NBA decided to remove the center position from the All-Star game. Since that time, the narrative of the league has centered around the slow demise of the traditional big man, culminating last season with the jump-shooting, small-ball Warriors taking home a championship. This will surely usher in an era of center-less, small-ball, copycat teams, right? Probably not. What does not fit this narrative is that in the last three seasons the talent pool of centers has gotten stronger, deeper and more versatile. There are still a lot of teams with quality “traditional” centers that will contribute heavily to your block and rebound categories, and that field is trending younger.
Use our free Draft Simulator to prepare for your draft
Tier 1
Anthony Davis should be drafted No. 1 overall in all leagues and formats (PERIOD). Yes, I am aware that he has never played more than 70 games in his short three-year career. I do not care. Even with Harden playing 81 games last year, Davis finished ahead of him in roto totals. He is 22 years old, improves almost daily and the Pelicans’ addition of a coach that can actually run plays. I’d stake my season all day on a center who wins you blocks, shoots close to 80% FT, gives you the same amount of steals as Kyrie Irving and could make a run at the scoring title.
Tier 2A (FT% Punting Only)
Are you punting free throws? Then DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond need to be on your team. Jordan becomes one of the best players in the league when you don’t account for his insanely horrible free throw shooting. He ranks third overall on average (over Chris Paul and James Harden) by dominating rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage. Drummond cracks the top ten overall by being a poor man’s DeAndre Jordan and by besting every center in Tier 2B. Not only that, but Drummond should see more usage this year on Detroit.
Tier 2B
Cousins is the clear leader of this tier, and if it wasn’t for his abysmal turnover rate he would get bumped up to Tier 1. The problem with Boogie is that he is still a loose cannon on an insanely dysfunctional franchise.
Serge Ibaka’s strange year of dealing with Westbrook’s and Durant’s injuries is now behind him. While proving that he alone cannot carry a team, he did grow his game out of necessity. With the team back to healthy, he should fall back into his role that highlights his strengths and improve his shooting percentage, while incorporating some of his new skills, like threes. Al Horford is coming off a very productive, healthy year into an important contract year.
Horford has seen some long layoffs due to injuries in the past, and you should be aware of that. Even so, I don’t think his injury risk outweighs his ability to contribute across the board in roto leagues.
Marc Gasol is coming off an 81-game season, and smartly skipped Spain’s EuroBasket championship run to get some rest over the summer. Another big man who contributes across the board, Gasol should see similar production and usage on a team that has not drastically changed its makeup. His high FT% for a big, and solid assists/steals/blocks all provide a great building block for roto and head-to-head leagues alike.
Tier 3
It is very popular for people to highly discount LaMarcus Aldridge coming into this season. New system, less touches and fewer minutes. Aldridge should see a few less minutes on the Spurs, but I see no reason why he would suddenly be playing less than 30 minutes per game like the rest of the team. All signs point to running the offense through Aldridge this year. Sure he might shoot less, and score a little less. But quicker passing and better spacing should allow Aldridge to improve his shooting percentage and sneak out past the three-point line.
Rudy Gobert is positioned to be everyone’s breakout center this season, and he should improve in both quality and minutes this season. His FT% and points per game are glaring holes in his game, but his elite blocks and FG% more than makeup for this. You’ll have to reach to draft him, but it will probably be worth the reach.
As the No. 1 option in Orlando, Nikola Vucevic is an efficient volume scorer and rebounder while not hurting you much in the FT% category. His assists and steals are solid enough to boost his fantasy ranking, but blocks are weak for a big man. At 25 years old, Vucevic has room to improve and should as the rest of the young Magic improve around him.
With the addition of David West and LaMarcus Aldridge, Duncan should be allowed to decrease his minutes. That said, this decrease in value only comes from his decrease in minutes. His per 36 minutes are insane for his age and I still expect him to be very fantasy relevant every season until he retires.
Tier 4
Brook Lopez could easily be penciled into the second tier of centers. He rounded out the second half of last season in incredible fashion: 19 points, eight rebounds, and two blocks with elite percentages in both FT and FG. However, he has not averaged these stats since his second year in the league at 37 minutes per game. Since then, he has been seriously injured every other year. This is a risk I’m not willing to take with a high draft pick.
Nerlens Noel averaged two steals and two blocks per game after the All-Star Break. That is Anthony Davis-like production in those categories. His FG% and FT% aren’t great from the center position, but you cannot argue with solid points and rebounds with elite steals and blocks.
Pau Gasol had a fantastic season finishing seventh overall in totals for roto leagues last year. This year he faces an even more crowded Bulls front court, and a new coach who wants to run an “up-tempo” offense. With Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah healthy, the emergence of Nikola Mirotic, and even rookie Bobby Portis potentially eating into minutes, Gasol’s role could easily be diminished compared to last year.
Al Jefferson had a disappointing season last year, mostly due to nagging leg injuries. While Jefferson should see a bounce back year, this is his 12th season in the league. However, reports are already showing he is working toward getting into top shape.
Without LeBron James in the lineup, Bosh took full reign of the Heat offense before his exit due to blood clots. Expect him to take the same role this year and give you great scoring, including three-pointers and good FT% from a center eligible postilion.
The Cavs never truly figured out how to use Kevin Love to his full potential. Coming off of a serious shoulder injury, Love seems to be set for another year as a glorified stretch four, while James and Irving (when he gets back) orchestrate the offense. Getting three pointers and good FT% from your center spot is great, but his blocks and FG% are well below ideal for your big man.
Tier 5
- Marcin Gortat – Solid big man stats and above average percentages. Plus, he doesn’t hurt you anywhere else.
- Derrick Favors – Should see an increase in minutes after only averaging 31 mpg last year. Good steals from the center position.
- DeAndre Jordan (see Tier 2A) – Achieving the status of “guaranteed last place in FT%” for your league, but Jordan is a beast in all other categories.
Tier 6
- Hassan Whiteside – If you are willing to take the risk on Whiteside, you could have a maniac in blocks, rebounds and FG%. If he is a head case and injury prone, you are just going to come out of the draft with an outright maniac.
- Andre Drummond (see Tier 2A) – Drummond is now the primary big man in Detroit and is an amazing source of true center stats with points, blocks and rebounds. Just like Jordan, he will lose you FT%, so go all in if you draft him.
- Greg Monroe – He played well without Josh Smith and Drummond next to him in Detroit. Now he should be featured as the starting center in Milwaukee, and the go-to option for their young offense.
- Jonas Valanciunas – The Raptors have indicated they will be playing Valanciunas in the fourth quarter this year, which should bump his minutes. Whether or not he can actually earn those minutes by improving his defense is yet to be determined.
- Tyson Chandler – Gives solid big man numbers but doesn’t kill you in FT%.
Tier 7
- Gorgui Dieng – Only effective when playing starters minutes, Dieng gives you a steal and couple blocks with good percentages. Could see time share with Karl-Anthony Towns.
- Karl-Anthony Towns – Rookies rarely become fantasy worthy players, and centers are even less likely to. Towns has enough talent to be an exception to this rule (including the potential for three-pointers) but probably won’t get the minutes needed until later in the season.
- Enes Kanter – Dropping 19/11 after the All-Star break is great, but that was without Ibaka and Durant. Fewer touches and the fact that OKC will need someone who can play defense down the stretch will limit Kanter’s minutes and productivity.
- Robin Lopez – Starting center for the New York Knicks. Can produce good numbers with great percentages for a big man when given starters minutes.
- Joakim Noah – Noah had an awful season last year, but he battled injuries the entire time. He is only a year out from finishing fourth in MVP voting. When healthy, Noah produces elite assists for a center.
Tier 8
- Markieff Morris – Markieff’s situation with the Suns is up in the air as he has demanded to be traded. Even though he finished 47th overall for roto leagues, it was due to his 82 games played. Could be an end of the draft steal if everyone in your draft is afraid of him.
- Meyers Leonard – Leonard has the chance to win starting minutes against Mason Plumlee and Chris Kaman. His high percentages and three-point shooting make him a valuable fantasy center.
- Andrew Bogut – Bogut’s ability to get almost two blocks a game make him fantasy relevant even with low minutes. He isn’t going to score, and his FT% is horrible but he doesn’t shoot enough to hurt you.
- David Lee – People soon forget that Lee was a top 60 player two years ago until he sat on the bench in favor of Draymond Green. The Celtics’ frontcourt is crowded, but David Lee could be back to starters’ minutes and is playing for a contract. At around 30 minutes per game, he would bring overlooked value in all standard leagues.
- Dwight Howard (FT% punt) – The original center for punting free throws is no longer a top three FT-punting center. Injuries and decreased production have hurt his value, but he still can scrape into the bottom of larger standard head-to-head leagues. If you’re punting FTs, I would move him up to around the Tier 4.
Other notable centers
Be sure to check out our free Draft Simulator
Mike Catron rambles on about the fantasy impact of NBA Box Scores and provides other insights on strategy and draft preparation at WatchtheBoxes.com. You can follow him on Twitter @WatchtheBoxes where he will be live tweeting various NBA games, answering your fantasy questions, and mostly retweeting stuff you need to know from people you already follow.
