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FanDuel Ownership Projection Analysis: Week 4

FanDuel Ownership Projection Analysis: Week 4
Eli Manning has a solid matchup against the Bills in Week 4

Eli Manning has a solid matchup against the Bills in Week 4

As I sit here reflecting on my Week 3 decisions and performances, I am grateful to see a week in the NFL go somewhat as expected. Many of the studs like Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. played to their capabilities. Guys like Randall Cobb and A.J. Green finally lived up to expectations. Now the question is, does Week 4 follow expectations like Week 3, or go back to the craziness we saw in Weeks 1 and 2.

As always, I will take a trip down memory lane and see how my suggestions panned out from the previous week. For two weeks in a row I recommended Ryan Tannehill as a low ownership player to target, and in both weeks he delivered. Tannehill struggled, but still had a decent fantasy day. He threw for 297 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. He finished with 18.78 points on FanDuel. Allen Hurns was the next suggestion I made. I will continue to pat myself on the back since Hurns outperformed teammate Allen Robinson. Hurns only had two receptions, but he made them count. He ended with 70 yards and a score for 14 fantasy points on FanDuel.

Now, let us take a look into who I recommended for high ownership players to target. First I suggested Julian Edelman. Edelman was the most owned player in Week 3. He did not have a great week, but he was still on a few of my winning lineups. Edelman did not score a touchdown, but grabbed eight balls for 85 yards. Next was Adrian Peterson. Peterson was in most of my lineups. As I predicted last week, he scored his first touchdown of the season. He also added a second touchdown while rushing for 126 yards. He finished with 24.6 points on FanDuel.

Finally let us recap the players who were highly owned, but I suggested staying away from in Week 3. If you picked Dion Lewis, you were not disappointed. He did better than I expected. However, my LeGarrette Blount timeshare held true. Lewis only had eight carries. However, he did score and added 30 yards through the air. The better play was Blount though. Blount was given 18 carries and scored three touchdowns. My second guy I said to stay away from was Larry Fitzgerald. That was a mistake. Apparently the fountain of youth Fitzgerald found was better than I thought. Although I do not believe Fitzgerald can continue the pace he is on, I will not be betting against him in Week 4. Looking back at who I recommended and how many winning lineups I had on FanDuel, I give my picks a solid B. If you feel differently, please share your thoughts in the comment section or message me on Twitter. Now for Week 4.

View projected FanDuel ownership levels for every player partner-arrow

Low Ownership Players to Target

Eli Manning – QB – NYG vs. BUF – $7,800 (0.7% owned)
After suggesting Ryan Tannehill against Buffalo last week, it looks like I will be targeting Buffalo again in Week 4. Buffalo has struggled against the pass this year. Manning has been decent and I like the idea of pairing him with Odell Beckham Jr. this week. Manning struggled in Week 1, but has turned things around over the last two weeks; scoring more than 19 points in each game. Manning looks like he might be the QB who people are overlooking in Week 4. Set some lineups with him and use the extra salary on other positions.

Arian Foster (or Alfred Blue– RB – HOU @ ATL – $8,000 (0.8% owned)
This is an either or option. Set up your team with Foster in the lineup in hopes that he plays on Sunday. Keep an eye on the injury report Sunday morning. If Foster does not play, substitute him with Blue (0.9% owned). Make sure to check before the first set of games to ensure you can make the changes needed to your lineup. Houston is facing a Falcons team who has given up the most points to the RB position. Whoever starts between Foster or Blue should be in for a big week.

High Ownership Players to Still Target

Derek Carr – QB – OAK @ CHI – $7,000 (16.0% owned)
I am slightly surprised by his price tag this week. Carr has proven he can put up big numbers, and he is facing a Bears’ defense who have struggled against the pass. I am using Carr in many of my lineups because I think he can score 25 fantasy points and costs $2,200 less than top option Aaron Rodgers. The Raiders are favored to win for the first time in 27 games and I am surprised by how many fantasy options I like from this team.

Jamaal Charles – RB – KC @ CIN – $8,700 (10.7% owned)
Charles is facing off against a Bengal’s defense who have allowed an average of 17.7 points per game to the RB position. Charles has averaged 21.4 fantasy points on FanDuel. Looking at those numbers, I think it is safe to predict that Charles earns at least 20 fantasy points in Week 4. Charles has as much upside as Adrian Peterson, but faces an easier opponent than the Broncos. Not to mention, Charles’ salary is slightly less too. I like my chances with Charles in my lineups; even with his high ownership percentage.

High Ownership Players to Avoid

Joseph Randle – RB – DAL @ NO – $7,400 (16.8% owned)
Joseph Randle has secured the starting gig in the Dallas backfield. He is going to get 12 to 15 carries each week, but he is not going to face the Falcons each week. Randle benefited from facing the worst rushing defense in the NFL in Week 3. He will struggle to find the same production against an average rushing defense in New Orleans. Randle is the third highest owned RB for Week 4 on FanDuel. I am shocked that people think he will outperform guys like Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, and Adrian Peterson. I will not be playing Randle in any of my lineups. That hurt me in Week 3, but I doubt it hurts me in Week 4.

Cam Newton – QB – CAR @ TB – $8,300 (12.9% owned)
Look, I like Cam Newton. I think he will have a good game. However, with a 12.9% ownership rate, I would rather turn to Andy Dalton or Derek Carr, two guys who cost significantly less but should give you similar production. Tampa Bay is not a bad defense against the pass. They allowed a ton of points to the QB position in Week 1, but have calmed down and currently rank 18th with an average of 15.9 fantasy points to the QB position. Look elsewhere for a quarterback in Week 4.

Players Worth Targeting by Position

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

Kickers

Defense/Special Teams

See you back here next week as we recap Week 4 and look at what Week 5 has to offer.

Rob Schwarz, Jr. is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Rob, check out his archive and follow him @ChiSportsnut25.

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