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Fantasy Basketball Risers and Fallers: 11/02/15 – 11/08/15

Fantasy Basketball Risers and Fallers: 11/02/15 – 11/08/15
Is it time to add Evan Fournier to your team?

Is it time to add Evan Fournier to your team?

In this weekly column, I will be focusing on the best/worst performances over the past week. I will focus on out of the ordinary trends, or players that have strayed greatly from their average draft position. Great performances by top players or bad performances by bench warmers will generally be ignored.

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RISERS

  • Evan Fournier (SG – Orlando Magic) – After a few poor shooting nights, Fournier has taken advantage of starting in Orlando by averaging 21 points, four rebounds, three assists and a steal with two and a half three-pointers in his last five games. There are a few things that are giving me pause before I crown him the hottest pickup of the week. His minutes are pretty high at 37.6 minutes per game, which I do not believe will be sustainable. Also, his career FT% is 74%, which, with volume, could affect that category in leagues where you care about your percentages. That said, he turned 23 years old last week, and can play multiple positions. He has earned the starting role from Scott Skiles, and he is hot right now. You should consider adding him in all standard leagues
  • Brandon Knight (PG/SG – Phoenix Suns) – Knight is playing the best basketball of his career. He was a strange fit with Eric Bledsoe after joining the Suns last year, but so far this season the backcourt duo has played fantastic with each other. Averaging 18.5 points, five assists, two three-pointers, a steal and a half, plus almost a block per game from the guard position has transformed this in-betweener guard into a Bledsoe clone. At 23 years old, the potential for growth is there. Even with this small sample-size, Knight’s performances are promising for the season to come.
  • Kent Bazemore (SG – Atlanta Hawks) – Another young guard who is earning a starting spot, Bazemore has fit right into Atlanta’s system. Even with Korver’s return, Bazemore is getting the start and averaging around 30 minutes per game. With Dennis Schroder playing for minutes and a fully healthy Thabo Sefolosha, Bazemore could see his minutes fluctuate from game to game. He is also shooting well above his career averages, so don’t expect 50% shooting every night. He has proven he can score in bunches, hit three-pointers and is providing elite steals. For now, he is the starter and producing standard league value.
  • Marvin Williams (SF/PF – Charlotte Hornets) – Williams is a new starter, but is an addition who comes with questions. He is the oldest of the bunch at 29 years old, so for him to suddenly breakout is unlikely. What is more likely is this new Hornets’ space-and-pace offense is better utilizing Williams in a stretch four role. He probably won’t drop over three three-pointers per game, but while starting he is capable of providing solid threes, rebounds and the occasional steal and block without turning the ball over. Be prepared to take the good games with the bad, though.
  • Kristaps Porzingis (PF – New York Knicks) – The rookie in New York has been playing very well to start the season, even with limited minutes. The starting role is his, and it is not going anywhere. He has shown that at 7’3” he can rebound well, block shots and get over a steal a game. What is more impressive is his range. Though only shooting 21% from beyond the arc, he is still good for almost one three a game. Considering he is just getting used to NBA game speed, there is plenty of potential for improvement.
  • Rajon Rondo (PG – Sacramento Kings) – I can ignore a 21-point outing against the Lakers. What I cannot ignore is another 21 point outing against the Clippers and a triple-double against Golden State. Granted, this performance came on 44 minutes without Darren Collison or DeMarcus Cousins taking touches away from him. We have seen Rondo put a game on his back before, but it has been years since he has done this for an entire season.
  • T.J. McConnell (PG – Philadelphia 76ers) – Recently earning the starting point guard role in the ever volatile 76ers’ backcourt, McConnell has provided elite level assists, good steals and even decent rebounds for a guard. This starting role is probably temporary with Tony Wroten and Kendall Marshall eventually coming back from injury. Either way, McConnell is putting up solid stats for a guy who you had never heard of as of a week ago.
  • Nik Stauskas (SG – Philadelphia 76ers) – Since coming back from injury, Stauskas has averaged 14.6 points and 2.6 three-pointers made while shooting 86% from the line in 31.7 minutes per game. That is not half bad, and on a team lacking NBA talent, anything goes. If he’s getting minutes and shooting well, he could become a standard league value player. There are a lot of question marks, but it is only his second year in the league and he’s young enough to improve.
  • Marcus Thornton (SG – Houston Rockets) – Thrust into a major starting role for the injured Rockets, Thornton is having a surprisingly productive start to the season. I doubt he keeps up the 35.4 minutes per game once the rest of the team is back healthy, but he is currently averaging three three-pointers a game, almost five rebounds and 16.6 points per game. It has been three seasons since Thornton has been fantasy relevant, but you might have forgotten he is only 28 years old. The last time he was able to average over 30 minutes a game back in Sacramento, he was scoring well, making threes, rebounding and getting steals. I doubt Thornton can sustain this production through the season, but you should always ride a hot hand.

FALLERS

  • Marc Gasol (C – Memphis Grizzlies) – Usually a top-tier center, Marc Gasol has struggled mightily to start the season. He has been playing through neck spasms, and has only played an average of 29 minutes per game. His blocks are down, steals are non-existent and is only scoring about 12.6 points per game. I find it hard to believe this is anything more than playing poorly through an injury, but it has to be disappointing for Gasol owners. You might want to target him as a buy-low candidate.
  • Danny Green (SG/SF – San Antonio Spurs) – Green has never played heavy minutes, but shooting 29% from the field is not the start you were hoping to see. He is a very important part of the Spurs’ rotation and has always been a streaky performer in fantasy. It is not surprising for him to put up a poor game or two, but to start the season with only one game in double-digit points and average one three-pointer a game is pretty terrible. Lots of Green owners are banking on him to knock down big threes. The positive thing is that his other stats are right in line with his averages from last year. Once Green can turn his shooting around his value will rise toward his actual value. I don’t expect his slump to last too much longer.
  • Ty Lawson (PG – Houston Rockets) – Lawson needs the ball in his hands to be productive. Harden needs the ball in his hands to win games. Playing these two together doesn’t look like it is working. Until the Rockets can figure out how to split the possessions better, or move Lawson to the second team, Lawson’s stats will be inconsistent. His elite assists have been marginalized by fewer possessions where he is running the plays. He is shooting very poorly at 35%, which is picking up from his bad shooting season last year. I’m not liking the direction Lawson is headed in Houston.
  • Marcin Gortat (C – Washington Wizards) – Gortat has never impressed anyone with his box score. Gortat’s value comes from his consistently good numbers. Night in and night out you can count on Gortat’s 13 points and nine rebounds with a block and the occasional steal. The Wizards have completely changed their offense this year. They are currently second in the league in pace, which might not be the best fit for Gortat. His minutes are down a little from last year, possibly due to fatigue from the high pace. He is shooting far below his career average, and upping that percentage would help bump his value back up. Also, he played all 82 games last year, which was where a lot of his value came from. If he loses a step this year or misses some games, he won’t be able to maintain his value.
  • Monta Ellis (SG – Indiana Pacers) – Ellis is still figuring out how to play with this team, but players in new systems will take months to figure out their new team. Not only that, but their new team needs to figure out their tendencies as well. Ellis is too good to struggle for long periods of time. His recent 25-point outing shows he still has the talent, but other than that performance he has been a very poor start. If he can get his field goal percentage back up to around 44%, he should rise back up to his normal value. Another great buy-low candidate.

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Mike Catron rambles on about the fantasy impact of NBA box scores and provides other insights on strategy at WatchtheBoxes.com. You can follow him on Twitter @WatchtheBoxes where he will be live tweeting various NBA games, answering your fantasy questions and mostly retweeting stuff you need to know from people you already follow.

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