Karlos Williams will be a popular value play Week 16
Whether constructing a cash game lineup or preparing for tournament play, you will need to be able to sort out the value options that are available each week. These plays can arise from a variety of reasons ranging from an injury to simple mispricing. Finding the diamonds in the rough can be the single difference between you and a high-scoring lineup.
Week 16 is upon us, and we have a 14-game main slate to work with. Last week’s value plays had some misses, but the hits included David Johnson, Ted Ginn, Will Tye, Benjamin Watson and the New England Patriots’ defense. Keep in mind that at this point of the season most DFS sites have tightened up their pricing, so it is a bit more challenging to identify some hidden gems. Let’s look at value plays for Week 16.
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Quarterbacks
Sam Bradford PHI vs. WAS $5,250
This is a critical matchup for both teams. While Bradford carries some risk, there aren’t a ton of cheaper options at quarterback this week. The Redskins rank 19th in fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks, and I think this is a good spot to roll the dice on Bradford. It’s worth noting that Bradford did score 26 FantasyAces points against this team in early October.
Teddy Bridgewater MIN vs. NYG $5,600
Bridgewater is coming off a monster performance against the Bears in Week 15 and he draws an even better matchup at home this week. The Giants are allowing the most passing yards per game while surrendering two touchdown passes per contest. This gives Bridgewater enough upside to plug him in as a viable QB2 in tournament play as the Vikings and Giants chase a playoff spot.
Running Backs
Frank Gore IND @ MIA $4,300
Gore has a very low floor, especially at this point in the season, but I love his upside for the price. The Dolphins are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game and with the Colts shaky at quarterback, I think they will try and exploit this weakness.
Karlos Williams BUF vs. DAL $4,400
I expect some high ownership levels for Williams if LeSean McCoy is out for Week 16, but it’s one I probably won’t be able to fade in cash games. Williams looked good in Week 15, and he’s shown some flashes of brilliance throughout his rookie season. The matchup against Dallas is a plus one, so utilize the salary relief in your lineup construction this week.
Denard Robinson JAX @ NO $4,300
Robinson would emerge as a viable source of salary relief in Week 16 if T.J. Yeldon remains on the shelf and Robinson himself is deemed healthy. The Saints are allowing the most rushing yards per contest and Robinson has some added upside in the passing game. Assuming he is the lead back, Robinson checks in as the seventh-best value at running back this week.
Cameron Artis-Payne CAR @ ATL $3,500
If Jonathan Stewart misses another game, Artis-Payne looks to be the man in his place. He totaled 59 rushing yards on 14 carries in Week 15 and he could be a popular target in Week 16. I would proceed with a bit of caution here when constructing your lineup. The Falcons allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, but they rank 14th in rushing yards allowed per game while allowing the fifth-fewest rushing touchdowns per contest. Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton also loom as touchdown vultures, but Artis-Payne’s low price is worth considering this week if you need the salary relief.
Wide Receivers
Kamar Aiken BAL vs. PIT $4,500
Aiken is coming off of the best game in his career, and he is a fine target this week given the matchup. The Steelers are surrendering the second-most passing yards per game and they rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to receivers. As a result, Aiken is the sixth-best value among all receivers this week and he is a high-upside GPP play.
Allen Hurns JAX @NO $4,800
The Saints’ secondary is porous and by now we are all aware of this. New Orleans allows the third-most passing yards per game while surrendering the most passing touchdowns. Hurns is the receiver I want to target in tournaments this week as I expect the masses to chase Allen Robinson. While you likely won’t go wrong with either, I’ll take the salary relief here with Hurns.
Keshawn Martin NE @ NYJ $3,500
There’s some risk here as Martin could be locked up with Darrelle Revis, but I’m willing to absorb that risk if the Patriots remain thin at receiver. I say this because there’s also a good chance Martin sees some time against Buster Skrine and Antonio Cromartie, and that’s a good thing. Per Pro Football Focus, Skrine is ranked 100th and Cromartie is ranked 97th among all cornerbacks, so there is some upside with this pick.
Tight Ends
Will Tye NYG @ MIN $3,700
Tye scored a touchdown again in Week 15 and he should continue to see some looks, especially in the red zone. The Vikings are average against opposing tight ends and Tye is still worth taking a flier on in tournament play for Week 16.
Benjamin Watson NO vs. DET $4,550
Watson still has some value built in here and I don’t mind taking advantage as his price barely moved despite another solid game on Monday night. His value would take a considerable hit if Drew Brees is unable to play in Week 16, but he’s a good target for Week 16 if the veteran quarterback plays.
Defense/Special Teams
Buffalo Bills vs. DAL $2,650
The Bills will likely be facing Kellen Moore this week, and the Cowboys have one of the lower implied team totals this week. While the Bills have been underwhelming to say the least, they are a great buy here against a punch-less Dallas team.
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.
