Drummond’s free-throw shooting along with his mini-slump might have owners willing to sell
As the season rolls forward, we’re starting to see more and more injuries, especially of the nagging variety. These are the type that, somewhat ironically, can often have the same effect as those more serious season enders. While a player like Stephen Curry is likely to play through those stubborn aches and pains, a guy like Tyreke Evans (mentioned in depth later), on a struggling team headed towards the draft lottery, is probably going to take time off rather than risk further injury competing for a team with few hopes left to make the playoffs. Of course, injuries aren’t the only way to get owners trading as there will always be players either cooling down or heating up, and it just so happens we have some of both this week. It’s a varied group, regarding what got them here, so take note of the reasoning and, if none of the following players fit the bill, see if you can’t use that logic to find some that do.
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BUY
Andre Drummond – C – Detroit Pistons
Drummond’s average scoring has increased every single year and has, this season, taken its largest leap from last year’s 13.8 per game to the current 17.1 points per game (13 ppg career average). His rebounding has followed the same trend and has improved from last season’s 13.5 per game to where it currently stands at a league-leading 15.2 rebounds per game (12.4 rebounds per game career). Drummond’s blocks have taken a minor hit, and his assists totals and free-throw shooting are as non-existent as ever, but overall, Drummond is still having a career year.
For the first time this season, however, he’s failed to score in double-digits in back-to-back games. Over those two games (Monday against Utah and Saturday against Denver), Drummond has averaged a woeful 5.5 points, seven rebounds and 0.5 blocks in just 23.5 minutes. It’s just about impossible to believe that that kind of production will continue for much longer, but those numbers are so startling that Drummond owners may be hovering a bit too close to the panic button. Unfortunately for said owners, Drummond, because of his awful shooting from the line, is more likely to find himself sitting on the bench at the end of a close game than he is standing on the court. That probably won’t change for the rest of the season, but he’s still going to be an integral part of Van Gundy’s team, so there’s little reason to believe the big man won’t soon turn things around. If you can handle the God-awful free throw shooting, then now is the time to make a play for the fourth-year Piston.
Will Barton – SG/SF – Denver Nuggets
He’s back again and should still be considered a good buy-low candidate. After averaging practically 30 minutes per game over the month of December, January has been less kind to the Nuggets’ surprise standout. This month, Barton has seen his time drop to 28.1 minutes per game, and, when combined with an unfortunate 35% shooting from the floor, his production has taken a predictable hit. The playing time decrease is a result of coach Michael Malone recently going with a larger lineup and, to some degree, probably favoring other, hotter hands. However, considering how well Barton has played this year, shooting 44.1% from the field and 85.7% from the line to go along with 15.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.6 threes, 0.9 steals and 0.4 blocks per game, it’s likely that he’ll eventually turn things back around. Barton owners are probably feeling a bit uneasy and contemplating jumping ship, so it’s a good time to make an offer and see how low they’ll go on the Memphis product. At the moment he’s producing low-end value in standards leagues as his field goal percentage is a bit of a hindrance, but what you’re seeing is probably his floor value, so assuming things do get better, you could very easily get a steal on a player capable of producing mid-round numbers.
HOLD
Jrue Holiday – PG/SG – New Orleans Pelicans
On Monday night, the Pelicans lost to the Houston Rockets 111-112, and it shouldn’t have been that close. New Orleans, for most of the second half, was forced to try and come back against a more than competent Houston team (even without Dwight Howard) without two of their top three scorers in Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans. Davis suffered a blow to the head, resulting in a concussion and Evans, dealing with more knee pain, was barely able to record more than three second-half minutes. However, few expected Jrue Holiday to go off like he did. Sure, he’s been playing much better this month, recording season highs in points, rebounds, assists and steals, but Monday’s contest was still a bit surprising.
Scoring 32 points (a new season high) on 13-of-21 shooting (61.9%) from the floor, to go along with nine assists, six rebounds and three steals, is simply another level of production we have yet to see from Holiday this season. To be fair, he did have a similar outing two weeks earlier in the Pelicans’ game against the Clippers, but it took him an extra six shot attempts to score three fewer points. Even if Davis and Evans had seen a full workload on Monday, and Holiday had played less than 36 minutes (which was another season high), he’d still be trending in the right direction. Now, with Davis currently in the midst of the concussion protocol and Evans having a hard time shaking his knee troubles, Holiday is likely to see even more playing time than he’s averaged so far this month, meaning we could be looking at the one of his most productive periods of the season. It’s probably a bad time to buy the point guard because his stock is so high, but it’s also too early to think about selling, as things could very easily get better, so, for now, hold on to Holiday and just enjoy the ride.
Tyreke Evans – SF/PG/SG – New Orleans Pelicans
One could very easily make a case for Evans to be in each of our three categories as his season’s future is anything but clear. As mentioned above, Evans barely managed to play three minutes in the second half of the Pelicans’ Monday night game against Houston before giving in to knee troubles that have just recently returned. Those knee issues are nothing new, but recently they’ve become more of a problem, only allowing him to average 21 minutes of court time over his last six games (not including the Pelicans’ contest against Memphis, which he missed altogether). When he’s been able to string together enough healthy performances, Evans has played pretty well, more often than not scoring 20 or more points to go along with useful numbers in rebounding, assists, steals, field goal percentage and free-throw percentage.
Unfortunately for him and his fantasy owners, however, staying healthy has been a problem, one that isn’t likely to be solved anytime soon. Unless the Pelicans can manage to keep up their current winning pace and make an impressive comeback to playoff relevance, coach Alvin Gentry could soon consider shutting down or at least severely limiting Evans’ playing time for the rest of the season. Therefore, if you happen to be the pessimistic type and currently own Evans, you might consider selling him before it’s too late. If, on the other hand, you consider yourself more of a glass-half-full individual and don’t currently have him on your roster, you might think about buying what could end up being low on the Pelicans’ guard. It’s the personal belief of this writer, however, that the best line of action, at the moment, is to do neither and wait to see how the next week or so pans out. It may not be the most exciting advice, but it just seems a little too soon to decide to go in one definite direction. Hold out a bit longer and see if time does anything to help guide your hand.
SELL
Elfrid Payton – PG – Orlando Magic
So far, since returning from injury, Payton has sandwiched four good games with two duds (one of which was forgivable as it was his first game back). Over those four games, he managed to average 15.5 points (48.5% FG), seven assists, 4.75 rebounds, 1.25 steals and one 3-pointer in 35.5 minutes. For the second-year player, those numbers are far better than any he’s been able to put up on a consistent basis to date, as he’s currently averaging just 11.3 points, 5.9 assists and 0.4 threes in 29.8 minutes on the season. As mentioned in previous issues, breakout seasons tend to happen more frequently during a player’s second year in the league than at any other time. Payton could simply have just started slow this season, waiting until now to begin said break out, but even if that is the case, he may already be near his sophomore ceiling.
As a career 42.5 percent shooter from the field (including 30.6 percent from three), expecting Payton to keep up a near 50 percent pace is a bit unrealistic, and let’s not forget how bad he is at the line (57.3% career FT). There is potential there, but, as evidenced by his latest dud, in which he failed to score in double digits and only recorded three assists, the young point guard is still rather inconsistent. Suggesting one sell-high now is a bit risky, as the post-injury numbers only cover a small sample size. However, a young player at that position, when given starter’s minutes, can seem quite intriguing to many fantasy owners. If you are able to trade for a more reliable player with a higher floor, it may be wise to cut ties now rather than get sucked into what could end up being a frustratingly difficult guessing game. The Magic are currently struggling to win games, but, since they’re still above .500, they haven’t yet given up on the season. That means that Payton isn’t necessarily guaranteed playing time, as coach Scott Skiles could very well decide to favor the hot hand rather than give too much attention developing his younger talent. To add to the list of potential hurdles Payton may have to clear, he’s also surrounded by enough talent in Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier and Victor Oladipo, that it wouldn’t be too surprising to see another player eventually take hold of the team’s offense, thereby relegating Payton to more of a distributor role than anything else. There are enough questions to make the idea of selling him, one worth considering. So if you have your eye on someone else, now is a good time to see if Payton will do the trick.
George Haw is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from George, check out his archive and follow him @georgeWarfieldH.
