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Fantasy Basketball Risers & Fallers: 12/28/15 – 01/03/16

Fantasy Basketball Risers & Fallers: 12/28/15 – 01/03/16
Is it time to buy low on Kevin Love?

Kevin Love has been falling fast of late

In this weekly column, I will be focusing on the best/worst performances over the past week. I will focus on out of the ordinary trends, or players that have strayed greatly from their average draft position. Great performances by top players or bad performances by bench warmers will generally be ignored.

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RISERS

  • Rodney Hood (SG/SF – Utah Jazz) – Hood has been getting the start for most of the year in Utah but with four guards sharing minutes, his game to game production has been inconsistent. With Alec Burks‘ 27 minutes freed up due to a fractured ankle, Hood should see more playing time. In this short four-game stint without Burks, Hood has seen his minutes increase and has averaged 17 points, two and a half three-pointers, six rebounds, and almost a steal and a block per game. While Hood will never shoot a high percentage from the field, and his rebound and block numbers are slightly inflated, he is a good source of points and three-pointers and should see enough of the court to have standard league value.
  • P.J. Tucker (SG/SF – Phoenix Suns) – Tucker is another beneficiary of minutes being freed due to injury. With Bledsoe out for the season and the Suns in freefall, surprisingly Tucker has jumped into the starting lineup over T.J. Warren. Over the last week, Tucker has provided across the board production in nine category leagues averaging 10 points, five rebounds, two assists, two steals, half a block and one and a half three-pointers on 51.3% shooting and under a turnover a game. If you are someone who values percentages and turnovers, Tucker is a good grab while he is getting starter’s minutes. Don’t be surprised if the Suns decide to continue to mess with their rotations or start to favor Warren over the thirty-year-old Tucker.
  • George Hill (PG/SG – Indiana Pacers) – Hill has had a great stretch of play over the last few weeks while he should be owned in most leagues, his current performance is worth noting. After dealing with a respiratory infection in November, his value has steadily increased. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged 15 points, four rebounds, two assists, over two steals, two three-pointers and a half a block a game on 52.2% shooting. You would expect more assists from Hill and his shooting should trend back to his season average of 44%, but Hill is a good source of three-pointers and steals while not really hurting you anywhere else. Definitely ride him while he is hot, or trade him far above his value.

FALLERS

  • Robert Covington (SG/SF – Philadelphia 76ers) – The regime change in Philadelphia has not been kind to Covington. Over the last two weeks, he has seen his playtime drop under 22 minutes per game. Some of this might have to do with the new philosophy that the 76ers are testing out, but mostly it is due to his abysmal shooting. In those two weeks, he has only averaged seven points on 32.6% shooting. Without his shot falling, his three-point value that you rely on disappears. If Covington is not out there stretching the floor by knocking down threes, then he doesn’t need to be out there. If he isn’t playing close to starter’s minutes, his value in steals disappears as well. I would continue to keep an eye on his playing time and production, but it is time to move on from Covington.
  • Tim Duncan (PF/C – San Antonio Spurs) – While Duncan’s minutes had been cut drastically from year’s past, that was to be expected. Even in the 26 minutes per game, he is producing enough to be owned in nine-category standard leagues. Over the last month, though, nagging injuries and days of rest have been introduced to his cutback in playing time. Expect to see Duncan continue to rest any slight injury and allow LaMarcus Aldridge to find his place on the team. Duncan might start playing consistent games to play his way back into shape before the playoffs, but don’t rely on the Spurs to be conventional. After an amazing 18 season, Duncan is no longer able to be owned in standard leagues.
  • Kevin Love (PF/C – Cleveland Cavaliers) – Owners of Love had to worry about the return of Kyrie Irving on Love’s production, but Love actually started declining in value before Irving played in his first game of the year. This is a buy-low moment for Love. He now has to adjust to a new style of play, which he did not thrive in last year, but Love was nowhere close to this bad last year. In the last week, he has averaged just nine points and a half of a three-pointer per game. His shot has gone missing shooting under 40% over the last month. It might take a few weeks, or even a month for him to get out of this slump while adjusting to Irving taking some of his touches away, but if you can get Love for nothing, now is the time.

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Mike Catron rambles on about the fantasy impact of NBA box scores and provides other insights on strategy at WatchtheBoxes.com. You can follow him on Twitter @WatchtheBoxes where he will be live tweeting various NBA games, answering your fantasy questions and mostly retweeting stuff you need to know from people you already follow.

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