The Panthers defense will be tough, but Carson Palmer has proven he can produce in difficult matchups

The NFL Conference Championships are here, and we are getting close to knowing which two teams will square off in the Super Bowl. With an even smaller player pool, it will be important to find areas to differentiate your lineups and take some chances where you normally would not. Let’s look at a tournament lineup for FantasyAces.

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Quarterback

Carson Palmer ARI @ CAR $6,850
The Carolina defense is tough, but Palmer finished the regular season as the fifth-highest quarterback in fantasy production, and he’s proved capable of performing even in tough matchups (at Seattle). The Panthers’ secondary has struggled at times in recent weeks and the Seahawks exposed some weaknesses in the Carolina pass defense. Robert McClain was sitting in his living room about a month ago, and Seattle attacked him with 14 targets last week.

He allowed seven catches for 63 yards and a touchdown. Josh Norman even struggled last week, allowing all five targets he saw to be completed for 57 yards and a touchdown. Time in the pocket will be crucial for Palmer, and if he gets it, I like his chances of putting together a solid game on Sunday.

Peyton Manning DEN vs. NE $6,100
Manning faces a New England secondary who produced a mixed bag of results last week against the Chiefs. They had some issues against a weaker passing offense, and Logan Ryan stood out as a cornerback who uncharacteristically struggled last week. He allowed eight of 10 passes to be completed for 101 yards and a touchdown.

Manning threw for 222 yards in last week’s victory over the Steelers, and he likely could have produced more if not for some dropped passes. The Broncos only allowed one sack last week, and that was due to a poor block from a running back, not from the offensive line. If the Broncos can give Manning the time he needs (per Pro Football Focus, Alex Smith had 3.13 seconds per pass attempt last week against NE), he could very well deliver a performance good enough to pay off his salary.

Running Back

Ronnie Hillman DEN vs. NE $4,450
I’ve been banging the drum for Hillman all week long, and while I’m cognizant of the risks, I’m trying to play the ownership percentages. No one seems to be talking about Hillman with a matchup looming against a Patriots’ defense that held the Chiefs to 90 yards last week. Toss in the fact that C.J. Anderson appears to have the hot hand and I think ownership levels will be in favor of Anderson.

But keep in mind Anderson had one fewer carry than Hillman and accumulated 34 of his 72 rushing yards on one play. This is truly a split workload, so there’s nothing wrong with targeting the player with less anticipated ownership that his backfield mate.

James White NE @ DEN $4,200
In terms of dollars per point, White checks in as the second-best value among running backs this week. White led the Patriots’ backfield in snaps last week as New England engaged in a pass-first approach. The Patriots have no semblance of a running game and with their quick passing game fueling the offense, White should be on the field plenty.

There’s risk involved here, but White’s breakaway speed makes him a fine candidate to bust a long run at any time. He’s worth taking a flier on.

Wide Receiver

Demaryius Thomas DEN vs. NE $5,150
In situations where Emmanuel Sanders is markedly cheaper than Thomas, I prefer Sanders. But with only $50 separating the two on FantasyAces, I am locking in Thomas. Sanders has been the better receiver over the course of the season, and Thomas hasn’t looked like himself at times, but I like him to have a good game.

The matchup against Logan Ryan (had a bad game as noted above) is a rematch from their meeting at the end of November and Ryan got the best of Thomas in that game. Keep in mind that Thomas averaged 2.20 yards per route run, which is the eighth-highest among receivers (per Pro Football Focus). Thomas checks in as the second-highest projected receiver while ranking as the top value in dollars per point.

Larry Fitzgerald ARI @ CAR $5,150
Fitzgerald caught eight passes on 12 targets for 176 yards and a touchdown last week, and he will again be the key for the Cardinals this weekend. Fitzgerald will likely avoid a lot of Josh Norman as he lines up in the slot for the bulk of his snaps, which is something Norman rarely does. The Panthers’ entire secondary has shown some signs of weakness as of late, and that could spell trouble against a high-powered Arizona offense.

Last week, Robert McClain allowed seven catches on 14 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. Even Josh Norman struggled, allowing all five targets thrown his way to be caught for 57 yards and a touchdown. I love pairing Fitzgerald with Palmer here this week, and I will even be adding a second receiver from Arizona in a flex spot.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski NE @ DEN $5,900
Playing Gronkowski is a fine way to get exposure to this high-powered offense now that all of the pieces are back in place and healthy. Tom Brady targeted Gronkowski eight times, and the tight end hauled in seven of those for 83 yards and two touchdowns last week.

I highly doubt the Patriots will have much success running the ball, so I expect the volume to be heavy yet again in the passing game. Gronkowski has multiple-touchdown upside again this week.

Flex

Jerricho Cotchery CAR vs. ARI $4,200
Cotchery has hauled in at least three catches in six out of the last eight games, and he should draw plenty of Jerraud Powers this week. According to Pro Football Focus, Powers ranks 74th among all cornerbacks. Even though you’re chasing a touchdown here, this is the kind of risk you will need to embrace this week.

John Brown ARI @ CAR $4,800
With Larry Fitzgerald likely avoiding Josh Norman for the most part, Brown will surely line up against Norman for some of his offensive snaps. That being said, Brown’s value is derived from his big-play ability, and I think the Cardinals will look to create a few situations where Brown isn’t locked up with Norman. As I noted above, the entire Panthers’ secondary had a tough time in coverage last week.

While I pointed out Norman and Robert McClain earlier, I haven’t touched on safety Kurt Coleman, who allowed six catches on seven targets for 93 yards and a touchdown. I like the Cardinals to capitalize on that with some deep passing plays this week.

Defense/Special Teams

Arizona Cardinals @ CAR $2,850
The Cardinals are the cheapest defense on the board this week, and I’ll go against the grain in saying they will slow down the Carolina offense. I do have Jerricho Cotchery plugged into this lineup, but it’s tough to avoid the opposing defense with only two games to choose from.

The Panthers need to run the football to be effective, and the Cardinals’ run defense came up strong last week. Something will have to give, and I let the deciding factor be that of the four remaining defenses, Arizona has the edge in return touchdowns.

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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.