Aaron Rodgers has regained his offensive momentum and will carry that into Arizona
The NFL Divisional Round of games are upon us as the playoffs roll into the second week. With a smaller player pool, it will be important to find areas to differentiate your lineups and take some chances in areas where you normally would not. Let’s look at a tournament lineup for FantasyAces.
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Quarterback
Carson Palmer ARI vs. GB $6,900
Let’s forget what happened a few weeks ago when these two teams met and focus on the upcoming matchup. Game flow destroyed any chance of Carson Palmer and this passing attack getting rolling, and I believe that changes this weekend.
This Green Bay defense surrendered 329 passing yards and a touchdown to Kirk Cousins last week while allowing 29 completions. Per Pro Football Focus, Green Bay failed to get any pressure on 36-of-46 pass attempts last week, and Palmer will shred this secondary if he gets that kind of time.
Aaron Rodgers GB @ ARI $6,550
Playing off of the same thesis as I noted above, I am going to zig when everyone else will likely zag. It’s a big risk, but I think too many people will be focused on the Week 16 dismantling of this offense. The Cardinals are banged up along their front seven, and the Packers made a personnel change last week at left tackle that could make a huge difference.
They moved J.C. Tretter to left tackle and according to Pro Football Focus, he allowed just one total sack, hit and hurry combined against the Redskins. The offensive line looked better throughout the game despite starting off shaky, and this coincided with Aaron Rodgers looking more like his old self. This game has the highest projected total of the week, and I think there will be fireworks from both offenses.
Running Back
David Johnson ARI vs. GB $5,400
Johnson is nearly a must play this week as he dominates the touches out of the backfield. With the Cardinals currently a touchdown favorite at home, his usage should remain high regardless of the game flow. The Packers allowed 119 rushing yards per game during the regular season, and there’s nothing wrong with utilizing Johnson along with his quarterback and another receiver.
Charcandrick West KC @ NE $4,550
Spencer Ware saw more touches than West last week, but I think there’s some value in utilizing West this weekend. I highly doubt the Chiefs will put a beatdown on the Patriots like they did last week against the Texans. As a result, West could be utilized more in the passing game.
With this in mind, I have West projected slightly higher than Ware. This is a gamble to try and make a decision based upon expected game flow, but I think this is a calculated risk worth taking with such a small player pool.
Wide Receiver
John Brown ARI vs. GB $4,750
Brown is the high-ceiling option in this offense, and he should draw coverage from Casey Hayward and rookie Damarious Randall if Sam Shields remains out. These two are the weaker links in the secondary and that should bode well for Brown.
The Cardinals have a three-headed monster in the passing game that makes it difficult to pinpoint who will see the targets. This is the type of risk that you need to embrace, especially with someone who is a threat to rack up big plays like Brown.
Jared Abbrederis GB @ ARI $3,800
He is a play who is loaded with risk, but it is looking likely that Davante Adams won’t play. This would mean Abbrederis is drawing the best matchup of any Green Bay skill-position player. Abbrederis should shift to the slot, and that means Randall Cobb would see Patrick Peterson on the outside while Abbrederis matches up with Jerraud Powers.
Peterson rarely lines up in the slot on defense and Abbrederis is primarily positioned there when Adams is off of the field. This gives me confidence that Abbrederis will indeed line up against Powers, who ranks 79th among all cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus.
Tight End
Travis Kelce KC @ NE $4,800
Kelce checks in as the top value among all tight ends this weekend, and he’s projected as the second-highest tight end play overall. If Jeremy Maclin can’t play this week, Kelce should be leaned on early and often by Alex Smith and he could be in line for a big day. He will likely have high ownership levels, but it makes sense to lock him into your lineups.
Flex
Doug Baldwin SEA @ CAR $5,200
Baldwin should avoid Josh Norman this week as Norman has played just two percent of his snaps in the slot. This works out great as Baldwin spends 83 percent of his snaps in the slot position.
After a down week (compared to his torrid finish to the regular season), Baldwin’s ownership levels might come down just a bit. Either way, he’s a great play this weekend.
Emmanuel Sanders DEN vs. PIT $5,000
Sanders torched this defense in Week 15, but that was with Brock Osweiler under center. I know Peyton Manning is struggling in the twilight of his career, but I have a hunch that he shows up this week. Sanders is likely to see plenty of Antwon Blake, and that is a matchup I love.
According to Pro Football Focus, Blake checks in at 115th among cornerbacks and this is something I expect Manning to exploit. The way to attack this Pittsburgh defense is through the air, and I think Sanders will find plenty of success as a result.
Defense/Special Teams
Denver Broncos vs. PIT $3,000
The Steelers limp into Denver with many question marks surrounding their offense. DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown aren’t looking like they’ll play this week, and Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulder is hanging by a thread. Toss in what is sure to be a tough environment and I love the upside this defense has on Sunday afternoon.
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.
